Research Team

Global Change ProgrammeJadavpur University, Kolkata

Presented by Shyamasree Dasgupta

In National workshop on Climate Smart disaster Risk Management

New Delhi, April 7, 2010

Disaster Management & Climate Change Adaptation:

Where the Gap Lies?

Projected Impacts of Climate Change

1 C 2 C 5 C4 C3 C

Sea level rise

threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly

developing regions

Food

Water

Ecosystems

Risk of Abrupt and

Major Irreversible

Changes

Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)

0 C

Falling yields in many

developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and

abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant fall in water

availability e.g. Mediterranean

and Southern Africa

Small mountain glaciers

disappear – melt-water

supplies threatened in

several areas

Extensive Damage

to Coral Reefs

Extreme

Weather

Events

Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding, heat waves

Possible rising yields in

some high latitude regions

Vulnerability: Operational Definition

Vulnerability =

f (Potential Impact -Adaptive Capacity)

•Exposure –direct danger due to Climate Variability

•Sensitivity - Human and Environmental Conditions that trigger impact

Adaptive Capacity –potential to cope with impacts

Adaptation

Perception

Disasters are Irregular

Highly Random Events

Mostly Unpredictable

Philosophy : Low probability of Disaster

Disaster Management emerged as Ad hoc, Reactive Financial Support policy aimed at Impact Damage Repair

Disaster management

Perception:

Disasters will be increasing

Randomness remains: but some predictions possible

Philosophy: reduction in randomness of disaster

Adaptation gives scope for pro-active strategy development to generate safeguard against climate vulnerability

Case Studies:

Coastal Inundation in Sagar Block

of Indian Sundarban

Damage Cost

Asset Lost Physical Damage Damage Cost

(Rs)

Land 1355 acres 328540000

Livestock 3826 nos. 4304800

Food (paddy) stock 129775 kgs 1946625

Fishing Nets 703 nos. 1054500

Boats 46 nos. 920000

Solar Lighting Systems 1 no. 15000

Savings in liquid cash Rs 163200 163200

Total 336944125

Disaster Management Support

Maximum support received from Government

Maximum compensation for Land Loss (16.8%)

Government Support compensated for only 17% of the Damage Cost

Institution Type of Support

Government Land, Single Room Brick Houses, Dry Food, Canvas, Embankment Building/Repair

NGO Dry Food, Canvas, Information on Natural Calamities

Relatives Cash, Manpower

Proposed Adaptation Framework

Capital Investment in Resilience Building Infrastructure (Cyclone resistant houses, embankment)

Maintenance Investment in Resilience Building Infrastructure

Long term Adaptive Capacity Creation in lieu of Recurring Ad hoc Disaster Relief Expenditure

Disaster Management vs. Adaptation

Compensation per household (in Rs Lakhs) 1.9

Investment required per household (in Rs Lakhs) for :

a) Cyclone resistant houses & saline embankment 0.83 (44%)

b) Cyclone resistant houses & concrete embankment 3.2 (167%)

•Mainstreaming of Adaptation Strategy as against Recurring & Ad hoc Disaster Relief Expenditure

•Initial investment – High

•Long term benefits – Financial, Resilience Capacity Generation and Sustainable Development

Drought Prone River Basins: Sabarmati, Mahanadi & Alakananda

Vulnerability Assessment of Hotspots

Category Sabarmati Mahanadi

% of hhlds. showing a more than 10% fall in monthly expenditure during extreme events

84 100

% of hhlds showing a more than 10% fall in monthly food budget during extreme events

28 84

% rise in the price of staple food during extreme events

10 to 50 85 to 150

Coping Strategies – Sabarmati Hotspot

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

% o

f h

ou

se

ho

lds

Dis

sav

e

Borr

ow

money

Mort

gage

pro

pert

y

Sell

pro

pert

y

Lease o

ut

pro

pert

y

Sell

liv

esto

ck

Sell log

Mig

ration

Work

in

Gov

t pro

ject

Sav

e f

odder

Buy

fodder

Coping Strategies – Mahanadi Hotspot

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

% o

f h

ou

se

ho

lds

Sto

re d

ry

food,m

edic

ines

Labour

work

Pro

tect

livesto

ck

Flo

od r

esis

tant

houses

Contingency

funds

Buy p

oly

thene

Pra

y

Reactive Adaptation Need

Need Curve - Mahanadi Hotspot

0102030405060

Saf

e dri

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ing

wat

er

Hou

se d

amag

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com

pen

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on

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amag

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Hea

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Fo

od

aid

Com

mun

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ion

lin

ks

PD

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Adaptation Service Demanded

No

. o

f h

hld

s.

Fig. 71 Need Curve – Mahanadi Hotspot

Possible Policies

Agricultural Insurance

Infrastructure Development by Stakeholders

R&D into Alternative Farming Technology

- Inter-Cropping

- Crop substitution

Derived Conceptual Framework

Increase in

Resilience

Increase in

Productivity &

Surplus

Increase in

Adaptive Capacity

Investment in

Resources

Decline in

Vulnerability

Asset Creation

Proactive/ Planned

Adaptation Strategy

THANK YOU