Module 3: Impact of Module 3: Impact of climate change and climate change and variabilityvariability

Training Course on Factoring Hydro-Climatic Disasters in IWRM

Goals and Learning Goals and Learning OutcomesOutcomesThis module explains the impacts of climate

change on water resources and its implications to disasters. It explores the ways and means of adaptation to the climate change challenges on disaster management.

At the end of this Module you should be able to:

1. Understand climate change impacts, the underlying risks and resultant challenges to water related disasters; and

2. Apply the knowledge gained in building the resilience of the communities against hydro-climatic disasters.

Introducing the term ‘Climate’Introducing the term ‘Climate’

According to the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) climate is a natural resource vital to human well-being, health and prosperity. It can be defined as the average weather situation at a specific place measured during a long time period (30 years or more).

Decision-makers use climate information to plan and adapt activities and projects to likely conditions.

People’s lives and livelihoods everywhere are affected by climate. The raising of atmospheric temperature, (also commonly known as global warming), poses a threat to society in a number of ways. A higher number of and longer droughts threatenmillions of people directly.

Climate Variability (Variation/fluctuation) refers to a deviation of climate from the long-term meteorological average over a certain period of time, e.g. a specific month, season or year.

Variations are a natural component of the climate caused by changes in the System/s that influence the climate, such as the General Circulation system.

At times the system/s is/are so strong / weak to

give rise to extreme climate events.

What is climate variability?

One of the systems that is known to result in some of the major fluctuations of climate in many tropical parts of the world is the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event.

Warm ENSO event is called “El-Niño” while the cold ENSO is called “La-Nina”

Causes of climate variability

What is El-NiñoWhat is El-Niño

The term El Niño, (Spanish word for "the Christ-child"), refers to periodic building up of a large pool of unusually warm waters in large parts of the eastern and central equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Takes place at varying degrees of magnitudes and periods.

What is La NiñaWhat is La Niña

La Niña is the opposite of El-Niño

Used to describe periodic building up of unusually cold waters in large parts of the same ocean basin.

The atmosphere and the neighbouring oceans respond to El Niño and La Niña events in various ways

A number of climate variations(fluctuations) take place without affecting the overall average. For example, in a place, we may have a wetter than normal year followed by a drier than normal year but the average stays nearly the same

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Climate Change: Refers to a permanent shift in the traditional space-time patterns of climate, e.g. change from one climate mode to another climate mode, which is outside the normal range of natural climate variability, regardless of the causes.

What is climate change?

Why “Global Warming” is the Why “Global Warming” is the Inappropriate TermInappropriate Term

Climate change refers to the general shifts in climate, including temperature, precipitation, winds, and other factors.

Global warming (as well as global cooling) refers specifically to any change in the global average surface temperature.

Global warming is often misunderstood to imply that the world will warm uniformly.

An increase in the average global temperature will also cause the circulation of the atmosphere to change, resulting in some areas of the world warming more and other places less. Some areas can even be cooler.

‘Global warming' is still often used by media and others to describe climate change.

 

There are two drivers of climate change namely:

1. NATURAL DRIVERS Due to the variation of the orbital distance of the Earth from the

Sun. This leads to the cold -glacial and warm inter-glacial periods. Each period lasts about 100,000 years. The change is so slow that

we do not easily notice. Due to sun's activity: Solar cycle of 22 years or volcanic eruptions.

2. MAN MADE DRIVERS (ANTHROPOGENIC) Greenhouse gases Some land use changes Urbanization Aerosols The increase in the CO2 is predominantly because of burning of

fossil fuels

Causes of climate change

Greenhouse effect

Drivers of climateDrivers of climate

Spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation

Sea surface Temperatures (SST) – El-Nino and la-Nina

Temperature distributionEvaporation Humidity Soil moisture

Climate change impacts on water Climate change impacts on water resourcesresources

Hydrological water balance of catchmentHighly seasonal hydrology as a result of

varying seasonal precipitationHigh rates of sedimentation of reservoir

storage Topography and land-use patterns that

promote soil erosion and flash flooding conditions

Damages the water hydraulic structures Pollution of water resources Water borne disease

Impacts on other sectors Impacts on other sectors

Hydropower generationEnvironment BiodiversityAgricultural productionSocial economic sector Heath sector

What are the mitigation What are the mitigation measures? measures? Climate change mitigation – Less

emission of GHG, Carbon trading (Global level),Catchment management (local level)Promotion of hydropower for energy

needsUse of renewable energy sourcesImprovement in early warning systems

on intensityPolluter pays principle should be

enforced

What are the adaptation measures?What are the adaptation measures? Start planning for change by building resilience of communities

to deal effectively with increased uncertainty of climate change.

Strengthening the management of water resources to respond to water stress, increased variability and future uncertainty

Seeking to understand the water resources balance at catchment level

Supporting interventions that encourage aquifer to recharge (soils and land conservation)

Minimization of pollution of water resources and water sources Creation of water information database for monitoring,

evaluation and surveillance

Creating alliances and partnerships to share experiences and expertise

Holistic approach in water resources management – Promotion of IWRM implementation

Conclusions Conclusions Climate variability is a normal phenomenon of

climate system Climate change and variability influences the

well being of the society through interactions with their life support systems

Fresh water resources are highly sensitive to weather and climate

Climate change is likely to alter the pattern of fresh water availability

Adaptation to climate change should aim at building resilience of communities to effectively deal with future climate change uncertainties

ExerciseExercise Purpose: To evaluate the current and future climate change impacts at

the country level (See page 42 in your Training Manual)

Activity: 1 hour In groups of 5, the participants will discuss the climate change sectoral

impacts as guided in the table below. Each group will appoint a Rapporteur who will present their finding to others.

 

Sector Current climate change impacts Future climate change impacts if unabated

Agriculture  Energy  Transport  Health  Tourism  Water  Land Education