IBM’s Global Innovation Outlook

Better choices for the commons?

IBM’s Global Innovation Outlookand “smarter” approach

Congress for the New Urbanism, PTR Summit – November 5th, 2009

Stan Curtis, IBM PLM Services, Smart Cities Research

What does this mean for cities and planners?

• Goal: Provide a framework to improve community development (service science)

• Approach: Applying IBM’s Global Innovation Outlook (open innovation)

• Outcomes: Configurable building-blocks…better choices! (re-districting, re-pricing)

AbstractWith Moore’s Law driving technology andembedding change in our business practicesglobally, what does this mean for cities,what does this mean for cities,transportation plans and policy innovations?

Mr. Curtis will share his insights from recentprojects in China, India, with Intel, CH2M andIBM’s Innovation Centre in Dublin.

• Berkeley, MIT• P&G, Raytheon• Accenture, IBM

Background (bias):

“Smarter Planet” - a test plan for your region?

• “Heard the one about 600,000 Chinese Engineers?” Washington Post 21may06

• “Planning for ‘Megaregions’ in the United States.” Dewar, Epstein; Journal of Planning nov07

• Nobel-prize! - “An Inconvenient Truth” Al Gore; Nobel Prize 12oct07

Plan for “Mega-regions”

- “Governing the Commons” Elinore Ostrom; Nobel Prize 12oct09

Better choices?Better choices?

Economics!Economics!

Smarter? Smarter? …… more in common more in common

Gordon Moore's original graph from 1965

“Global Innovation Outlook” - what’s wrong with this picture?

• Ramping global supply-chains …1B cars, … 4B cellphones• Green Tech jobs? … solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries? • What about my hometown? … global and local trade skills?

Kurzweil – Law of Accelerating Returns

IBM GIO 2004

Q: the next 1B?Q: the next 1B?

“Smart Growth” – what’s wrong with this picture?

• “Shovel-ready” roads, bridges ... and cash-for-clunkers? (commodity-jobs)

• “Smarter” product bundling is re-framing business services. (iPod, iPhone)

• “Smarter” Services (search) are re-framing market pricing. (Craigslist, Google)

0

100

50

Agriculture:Value from harvesting nature

20501850 1900 1950 20001800

% o

f T

ota

l R

even

ue

Services:Value from enhancing the capabilities of tasks that one organization beneficially performs for others

Goods:Value from

making products

0

100

50


20501850 1900 1950 20001800

% o

f T

ota

l R

even

ue


Goods:Value from

making products

0

100

50


20501850 1900 1950 20001800

% o

f T

ota

l R

even

ue


Goods:Value from

making products

0

100

50


20501850 1900 1950 20001800

% o

f T

ota

l R

even

ue


Goods:Value from

making products

Q: Q: ““shovel-readyshovel-ready”” in my home town? in my home town?

“Smarter Services” - what’s missing?

www.globalsmartenergy.com http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14505519

The power of mobile money Economist 24sep09

Why cities? Power Law: T >B >S >PWhy cities? Power Law: T >B >S >P

- Micro lending and payment- Market supply and delivery- Equal opportunity for women- Health, education, safety- Tourism, shopping, gaming

“village phone” operator, Uganda

Better Choices?Better Choices?

Global Eco-system? … local innovation!GLOBAL: Today’s “collision” of ecosystems is recognized as the most important shortcoming each industry must correct.GLOBAL: Today’s “collision” of ecosystems is recognized as the most important shortcoming each industry must correct.

LOCAL: New solutions that meet the needs of the marketplace

can only be achieved through this type of collaboration.

City-Success?

INDUSTRY Eco-systems:• Automotive• Energy• Consumer Electronics• Telecommunications• Government/Transportation

Global (regional) planning: IBM’s approach?

•248 thought leaders •178 organizations •33 countries

• IBM works with global experts on regional Economic Development plans.• “Triple-Bottomline?” Policy innovation is key!

City Success – reconfiguring block by block

GIFT, Bangalore International Airport, Silicon Valley - CA, International

Financial Services Centre – Dublin

A geographic area with a specific industry or technology focus enabled by economic incentives to attract foreign enterprises, increase trade, or serve a local/regional economic or administrative significance.(Aerotropoli, SEZ, Technology Parks, Centers of Commerce or Education)

Specialized City/Hub 5

Road user charging system (Copenhagen), Automated Driverless

Metro (Sao Paolo), City-wide Electricity Grid (Moscow)

A single system within an urban area that captures and manages data to enable increased efficiency and real-time decision making (transportation, communications, energy, security, water/waste systems, etc.)

Urban Infrastructure (Single smart system)

4

Ave Maria University (Naples, FL), CityStars Cairo (Cisco), University of

Southern California - Enterprise Buildings Integrator (EBI) system

(Honeywell)

A localized geographic area designed to serve a specific purpose to a larger community (retail, business, residential, entertainment, education). These areas consist of complex integrated services, governance and management systems.

Neighborhood/ Complex/Campus/

Resort3

Shanghai St. Regis (IBM), The Verve (Toronto), Bank of America Tower

(New York)

Intelligent buildings successfully merge building management and IT systems, they converge data, voice, and video with security, HVAC, lighting, and other electronic controls on a single network platform; A building is “green” if it meets certain environmental and conservation measures

Intelligent/Green Buildings2

Disneyland Innoventions Dream Home (Microsoft, HP, Life| ware, Taylor

Morrison), Solaire (New York), Duke Smart Home Program

A home equipped to remotely monitor, control or program a variety of home systems of varying complexity (appliances, entertainment, lighting, environmental control, security, communications, etc.).

Home Automation/ Smart Home

1

EXAMPLESDEFINITIONSEGMENT

GIFT, Bangalore International Airport, Silicon Valley - CA, International

Financial Services Centre – Dublin

A geographic area with a specific industry or technology focus enabled by economic incentives to attract foreign enterprises, increase trade, or serve a local/regional economic or administrative significance.(Aerotropoli, SEZ, Technology Parks, Centers of Commerce or Education)

Specialized City/Hub 5

Road user charging system (Copenhagen), Automated Driverless

Metro (Sao Paolo), City-wide Electricity Grid (Moscow)

A single system within an urban area that captures and manages data to enable increased efficiency and real-time decision making (transportation, communications, energy, security, water/waste systems, etc.)

Urban Infrastructure (Single smart system)

4

Ave Maria University (Naples, FL), CityStars Cairo (Cisco), University of

Southern California - Enterprise Buildings Integrator (EBI) system

(Honeywell)

A localized geographic area designed to serve a specific purpose to a larger community (retail, business, residential, entertainment, education). These areas consist of complex integrated services, governance and management systems.

Neighborhood/ Complex/Campus/

Resort3

Shanghai St. Regis (IBM), The Verve (Toronto), Bank of America Tower

(New York)

Intelligent buildings successfully merge building management and IT systems, they converge data, voice, and video with security, HVAC, lighting, and other electronic controls on a single network platform; A building is “green” if it meets certain environmental and conservation measures

Intelligent/Green Buildings2

Disneyland Innoventions Dream Home (Microsoft, HP, Life| ware, Taylor

Morrison), Solaire (New York), Duke Smart Home Program

A home equipped to remotely monitor, control or program a variety of home systems of varying complexity (appliances, entertainment, lighting, environmental control, security, communications, etc.).

Home Automation/ Smart Home

1

EXAMPLESDEFINITIONSEGMENT

Pan European Oil Pipeline, Global Digital Cities Network, Trans-European

Transport Networks (TEN-T)

A system of roads, water supply, power grids, or telecommunications that spans two or more countries to facilitate the trade of goods or services between countries or regions.

International/Global Infrastructure

10

Denmark’s Rejsekort system, China’s national rail system, Portugal’s Via Verde Toll System, India’s Golden

Quadrilateral

Within a country, the system of roads, water supply, power grids, telecommunications, etc. that facilitates the production of goods, services and overall economic growth. National infrastructure may also include associated information systems and social services such as education, public safety and medical care.

National Infrastructure9

Boston-New York-Washington, London-Leeds-Manchester-Liverpool-

Birmingham, Greater Tokyo, Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangdong

An integrated set of cities and their surrounding suburban areas, competing on a global scale, linked together via social, economic and transportation systems.

Mega-Urban Region8

New York City, Mexico City, Tokyo, Seoul, Mumbai, Cairo

Usually defined as a metropolitan area with a total population in excess of 10 million. Megacities are characterized by rapid growth, new forms of spatial density of population, formal and informal economics, as well as poverty, crime, and high levels of social fragmentation. A megacity can be a single metropolitan area or two or more metropolitan areas that converge upon one another.

Megacity(Multiple smart systems)

7

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, London Commuter Belt, Lisbon Metropolitan

Area

An extended urban area that also includes peripheral areas (suburbs) with close economic and social ties to the urban area. Populations and commerce easily flow within this area are linked though complex transport and communications systems. These areas can vary in population and geographic area.

City/Metropolitan Area(Multiple smart systems)

6

Pan European Oil Pipeline, Global Digital Cities Network, Trans-European

Transport Networks (TEN-T)

A system of roads, water supply, power grids, or telecommunications that spans two or more countries to facilitate the trade of goods or services between countries or regions.

International/Global Infrastructure

10

Denmark’s Rejsekort system, China’s national rail system, Portugal’s Via Verde Toll System, India’s Golden

Quadrilateral

Within a country, the system of roads, water supply, power grids, telecommunications, etc. that facilitates the production of goods, services and overall economic growth. National infrastructure may also include associated information systems and social services such as education, public safety and medical care.

National Infrastructure9

Boston-New York-Washington, London-Leeds-Manchester-Liverpool-

Birmingham, Greater Tokyo, Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangdong

An integrated set of cities and their surrounding suburban areas, competing on a global scale, linked together via social, economic and transportation systems.

Mega-Urban Region8

New York City, Mexico City, Tokyo, Seoul, Mumbai, Cairo

Usually defined as a metropolitan area with a total population in excess of 10 million. Megacities are characterized by rapid growth, new forms of spatial density of population, formal and informal economics, as well as poverty, crime, and high levels of social fragmentation. A megacity can be a single metropolitan area or two or more metropolitan areas that converge upon one another.

Megacity(Multiple smart systems)

7

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, London Commuter Belt, Lisbon Metropolitan

Area

An extended urban area that also includes peripheral areas (suburbs) with close economic and social ties to the urban area. Populations and commerce easily flow within this area are linked though complex transport and communications systems. These areas can vary in population and geographic area.

City/Metropolitan Area(Multiple smart systems)

6

A software framework, in computer programming, is an abstraction in which commoncode providing generic functionality can be selectively overridden or specialized byuser code providing specific functionality. Frameworks are a special case of softwarelibraries in that they are reusable abstractions of code wrapped in a well-defined API,yet they contain some key distinguishing features that separate them from normallibraries. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_framework

Developing a Platform: Carrier-grade LinuxIBM – Integrated Product Development (IPD)

Market planning and portfolio management

Product development and launch

Linux: Open Source Development Lab (OSDL)The right investments in

development across

brands and products

tied to ROI, strategic

direction, and risk

Efficiency in the total

product lifecycle

from concept to

marketplace including

people, process,

and technology

Integrated product management pipeline

Product development pipeline

Profit

Satisfied

customers

– Customer buying behavior

– Product objectives

– Business strategy

– R&D roadmap

Understandthemarketplace

Define themarketsegment

Analyzethe portfolio

Createmarketsegmentstrategy

Develop and optimizemarketsegment plans

Manage market segmentand assess performance

– Project management data

– Segment performance data

Marketinformation

Customerfeedback

Competitorinformation

Technologytrends

Currentproductportfolio

Conceive Define Develop Manu-

facture

Launch Manage

life

cycle

Profit

Satisfied

customers

– Customer buying behavior

– Product objectives

– Business strategy

– R&D roadmap

Understandthemarketplace

Define themarketsegment

Analyzethe portfolio

Createmarketsegmentstrategy

Develop and optimizemarketsegment plans

Manage market segmentand assess performance

– Project management data

– Segment performance data

Marketinformation

Customerfeedback

Competitorinformation

Technologytrends

Currentproductportfolio

Conceive Define Develop Manu-

facture

Launch Manage

life

cycle

Program Mgmt – OSDL.org

Platforms • Data Center• Desktop• Carrier Grade• Embedded

Management• 7 founders• 70 members• 6 global-ctrs

““Governing the COMMONSGoverning the COMMONS””

““the FUNNELthe FUNNEL””

Building Blocks – Platform mgmt

Applying lessons learned to city development

It will SCALE!It will SCALE!

Governing the COMMONSGoverning the COMMONS

IBM “Smart Cities” – Portland3plays, 3 pilots

3 utilities

3 design innovations

Public Safety, Unified Comm

Smart Grid

Intelligent Transit

Aut

o/H

eavy

Ener

gy/B

uild

ings

Aer

o/C

omm

GOVT funds

DOT

DOE

DHS

11

22

33

11

22

33

IBM/CH2M – Smart alliance

Hybrid-powertrain + Fleet-mgmt

Gen-kits + Building-mgmt

Unified-Comm + Security-mgmt

POLICY INNOVATION – PDX Commons, CEO4Cities

SCALABLE SERVICES – Transit, SmartGrid, Safety

MASDAR – Green City.Mgmt Integration Framework

(local)

(global)

Better choices: ZipCar, Enterprise, U-Haul

ZipCarZipCar: car-share, pay-per-use: car-share, pay-per-use

NOT more-cars … better services!

Component models make an Eco District

Experts: - Portland + Oregon Sustainability Institute- Portland + Metro- EcoTrust + Pearl District

Whole systems: configuration mgmt with CH2M Hill

Bid

Or

Neg

oti

ate,

&

Aw

ard

Design Team

(Engrs./Archs.)

Construction Team

(Cms./Gcs./Scs)

Owner Team (May Include Users/Operators)

Operations Team

(Users/Operators)

Pre

lim

inar

y

Pla

nn

ing

&

Fu

nd

ing

Pro

ject

D

efin

itio

n

Pac

kag

e

Co

nce

ptu

al/

Sch

emat

ic

Des

ign

Des

ign

D

evel

op

men

t

Co

ntr

act

Do

cum

ents

En

d o

f S

erv

ice

Lif

e D

ecis

ion

Ass

essm

ent

& O

bje

ctiv

es

Set

tin

g

Op

erat

ion

/ M

ain

ten

ance

/M

anag

emen

t

Co

nst

ruct

ion

P

lan

nin

g

Ex

ecu

tio

n

Sta

rt–

Up

Procurement

Problems Needs

Opportunities

Decommission Deconstruct Rehabilitate

Retrofit Recover Restore Replace

Remediate

Primary Lead

Active Participation

Primary Lead

Primary Lead

Possible Active Participation

Primary Lead



Design/Build or Integrated E/P/C

Planning Phase

Design Phase

Construction Phase

Operation Phase

Vendors/Suppliers TeamPossible Active Participation

Commissioning

External PartiesPossible Active Participation Whole System Design? – Building Info Mgmt(BIM)!

Smarter City framework? …Open standards! 1. configurable Bill-of-Material 2. requirements based models 3. compliance, certification testing

Green Building – SMART framework? the greenest building? ... the one NOT built!

http://www.environmentalleader.com/2009/04/07/the-greenest-building-is-the-one-you-don%e2%80%99t-build/

Consider that 95 percent of our building stock remainsstatic year to year, and that most existing buildings arestartlingly inefficient in their energy use, and you’llunderstand the immense green opportunity presentedby existing buildings; they offer the single-greatestopportunity to improve energy efficiency andimprove profits across an organization

Why Energy-service …companies?

How to? …eco-partners, …step-by-step!

Why Energy Mgmt? Business model? … services solutions!

JOBS!JOBS!

Better choices!Better choices!

Open Home.Area.Network - Berkeley/Stanford NIST/EPRI IEEE 802.154 … PeoplePower SmartGrid-stimulusproposal

People Power: my community!

GreenSentry(whole house

electricity meter) ‏

GreenEgg(fridge monitor)‏

GreenPup

(2-plug110V) ‏

PeoplePower

Servers

PersonalWeb

Portal

GreenPump(monitor + hub)‏

PowerMeter

ElectricTerminator

Power Console

MobileDevice Internet

Fridge orMicrowave

GreenField (6-plug 110V)‏Lamp, TV, VCR, Radio, Toaster

GreenStat(thermostat)‏

GreenDog

(1-plug240V) ‏

Dryer,Oven

GreenHeat(hot waterpipe) ‏

GreenVent(HVAC vent)‏

Step by step - like Weight Watchers!

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=the-greenhouse-hamburger&print=true

Most of us are aware that our cars, our coal-generated electric power and even our cement factories adverselyaffect the environment. Until recently, however, the foods we eat had gotten a pass in the discussion. Yetaccording to a 2006 report by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), our diets and,specifically, the meat in them cause more greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane, nitrous oxide, and thelike to spew into the atmosphere than either transportation or industry.

The FAO report found that current production levels of meat meat contribute betweenbetween 14 and 22 percent14 and 22 percent of the 36 billiontons of "CO2-equivalent" greenhouse gases the world produces every year. It turns out that producing half apound of hamburger for someone's lunch a patty of meat the size of two decks of cards releases as muchgreenhouse gas into the atmosphere as driving a 3,000-pound car nearly 10 miles.

Smarter Cities? … community networks!

http://senseable.mit.edu/nyte/visuals.htmlhttp://www.zinio.com/pages/Seedmagazine/Feb-09/355120772/pg-27

http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~xgabaix/papers/zipf.pdfhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_law

Power Law: “80/20” Rule• Ciy-Population (Zipf)• Wealth (Pareto)• Firmsize (Gibrat)

Pareto: 80% of wealth, 20% of pop.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scale-free_network

Cities: economic “hubs”

Think globally, act locally

• Flat World• Open Innovation • Wiki-nomics

• Regional Innovation Initiatives (RII)• Digital Community collaboration• Sustainable development (TOD)

• Eco district zoning• Condo, car share• SmartGrid cell services

Global challenges:

Regional solutions:

Personal choices:

Ex: “Small Steps…”

• Open Innovation (IBM wiki) • City Success! (CEOSforCities)

• Cascadia (Seltzer.06)

• Intel World Ahead• Dublin Innovation Centre• Endurance.net

• GOSCON – Deb&Stuart• Masdar – Colin&Mogge• PeoplePower – John&Gene

3 Papers:

3 Partners:

3 Pilots:

•• If you If you’’re not part of the solutionre not part of the solution…… ? ?•• Keep it simple! Keep it simple! (Be cheerful)(Be cheerful)

References• IBM “Global Innovation Outlook” C.Harrison, M.Fleming

• “Portland: Green Dividend” Ceos4cities, J.Cortright

• “Better Places” Israel, Denmark, Hawaii

• “Gridwise” PNNL- PGE, IBM

• “Smart Garage” Google, IBM

• “The US Inter-operability Problem”National InterOp, IBM

• “Smart Planet” IBM, CH2M

• MIT SENSEable-city Real Time Copenhagen 2008