Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2005

ResearchPublication Date: 19 July 2005 ID Number: G00127755

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Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2005 Jim Duggan, Dale Vecchio, Daryl C. Plummer, Mark Driver, Yefim V. Natis, Matthew Hotle, Joseph Feiman, Greta A. James, Jim Sinur, Massimo Pezzini, Matt Light, Michael J. Blechar, Ray Valdes, Theresa Lanowitz

Application development includes perfecting tools to speed up processes and improve application effectiveness. Future trends will include the growth of real-time enterprises and service-oriented application development.

Publication Date: 19 July 2005/ID Number: G00127755 Page 2 of 22

© 2005 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1.0 The Hype Cycle ........................................................................................................................... 4 2.0 On the Rise.................................................................................................................................. 5

2.1 Mobile Development....................................................................................................... 5 2.2 Security at the Application Level .................................................................................... 5 2.3 WinFX............................................................................................................................. 5 2.4 Device Software Optimization ........................................................................................ 6 2.5 Collaborative Tools for the Software Development Life Cycle ....................................... 6 2.6 Aspect-Oriented Software Development ........................................................................ 7 2.7 Metadata Repositories.................................................................................................... 7 2.8 CMMI-Based Process Improvement .............................................................................. 8

3.0 At the Peak .................................................................................................................................. 8 3.1 Enterprise Architecture Tools ......................................................................................... 8 3.2 Architected, Model-Driven SODA................................................................................... 9 3.3 Advanced Web Services for AD ..................................................................................... 9 3.4 Project Portfolio Management ...................................................................................... 10 3.5 BPM Suites................................................................................................................... 10 3.6 SODA, Composite Applications and ISE...................................................................... 11

4.0 Sliding Into the Trough .............................................................................................................. 11 4.1 Scriptless Testing ......................................................................................................... 11 4.2 BPM.............................................................................................................................. 11 4.3 Legacy Modernization .................................................................................................. 12 4.4 ARAD SODA ................................................................................................................ 12 4.5 Basic Web Services for AD .......................................................................................... 13

5.0 Climbing the Slope .................................................................................................................... 13 5.1 Enterprise SCCM.......................................................................................................... 13 5.2 Hosted Services Testing............................................................................................... 13 5.3 Open-Source Application Development Tools ............................................................. 14 5.4 Performance Testing .................................................................................................... 14 5.5 UML Methodologies...................................................................................................... 15 5.6 Business Rule Engines................................................................................................. 15 5.7 3D-Based Process Improvement ................................................................................. 16 5.8 BPA............................................................................................................................... 16 5.9 .NET-Managed Code.................................................................................................... 17 5.10 Agile Methodologies ................................................................................................... 17

6.0 Entering the Plateau .................................................................................................................. 17 6.1 Application Quality Ecosystem (was Automated Testing)............................................ 17 6.2 J2EE ............................................................................................................................. 18 6.3 Open-Source Programming Languages....................................................................... 18

7.0 Appendix A: Previous Iteration of the Hype Cycle..................................................................... 19 8.0 Appendix B: Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels.................................... 19

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Hype Cycle Phases ........................................................................................................... 19



Table 2. Benefit Ratings .................................................................................................................. 20 Table 3. Maturity Levels .................................................................................................................. 20

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2005................................................................. 4 Figure 2. Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2004............................................................... 19



ANALYSIS

1.0 The Hype Cycle Application development (AD) will experience radical changes through 2010. The dominant trends will include the evolution of the real-time enterprise (RTE), with its "need for speed," and growth in service-oriented development of applications (SODA). Together with the continuing search for ways to cut costs, the RTE and SODA will encourage the shift to service-oriented architectures (SOAs). Significant work is being done to leverage legacy systems through extension and modernization. Organizational turmoil will accompany shifts in skills and delivery models, and will require paying more attention to the quality and change processes within development. Business process analysis (BPA) and business rule engines (BREs) will enable cost reductions in the short term, but together they will yield greater return on investment (ROI) in the future.

Figure 1. Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2005

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated

ExpectationsTrough of

Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity

maturity

visibility

Acronym key:

Plateau will be reached in:less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 years

obsoletebefore plateau

J2EE

Application Quality Ecosystem (was Automated Testing)

Agile Methodologies

BPABusiness

Rule Engines

Device Software OptimizationSecurity at the Application Level

WinFX

As of July 2005

AD application developmentARAD architected, rapid application developmentBPA business process analysisBPM business process managementCMMI Capability Maturity Model Integration

ISE integrated service environmentJ2EE Java 2 Platform, Enterprise EditionSCCM software change and configuration managementSODA service-oriented development of applicationsUML Unified Modeling Language

Open-Source Programming Languages

.NET-Managed

Code

3D-Based Process Improvement

Open-Source Application Development ToolsPerformance Testing

Hosted Services Testing

UML Methodologies

Enterprise SCCM

Basic Web

Services for AD

ARAD SODA

Legacy Modernization

BPM

Scriptless Testing

SODA, Composite Applications and ISE

Advanced Web Services for ADProject Portfolio Management

BPM Suites

Aspect-Oriented Software Development

Architected, Model-Driven SODA

CMMI-Based Process Improvement

Metadata Repositories

Collaborative Tools for the

Software Development

Life Cycle

Enterprise Architecture Tools

Mobile Development

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



maturity

visibility

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated



maturity

visibility

maturity

visibility

Acronym key:





J2EE

Application Quality Ecosystem (was Automated Testing)

Agile Methodologies

BPABusiness

Rule Engines

Device Software OptimizationSecurity at the Application Level

WinFX

As of July 2005

AD application developmentARAD architected, rapid application developmentBPA business process analysisBPM business process managementCMMI Capability Maturity Model Integration

ISE integrated service environmentJ2EE Java 2 Platform, Enterprise EditionSCCM software change and configuration managementSODA service-oriented development of applicationsUML Unified Modeling Language

Open-Source Programming Languages

.NET-Managed

Code

3D-Based Process Improvement

Open-Source Application Development ToolsPerformance Testing

Hosted Services Testing

UML Methodologies

Enterprise SCCM

Basic Web

Services for AD

ARAD SODA


BPM

Scriptless Testing

SODA, Composite Applications and ISE

Advanced Web Services for ADProject Portfolio Management

BPM Suites



CMMI-Based Process Improvement

Metadata Repositories

Collaborative Tools for the

Software Development

Life Cycle

Enterprise Architecture Tools

Mobile Development

Source: Gartner (July 2005)



2.0 On the Rise

2.1 Mobile Development Definition: The creation, construction and deployment of applications on devices other than a tethered system. Mobile development is manifested on a variety of devices.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Development organizations must augment the architectures of their established applications to include a mobile component where necessary.

Business Impact Areas: Mobile development requires business justification and a clear return on investment (ROI). Mobile applications are largely disposable and are an enabling technology for agile businesses.

Benefit Rating: High.

Market Penetration: Twenty percent to 50 percent of target audience.

Maturity: Adolescent.

Example Vendors: Borland, Microsoft, Sybase and Syclo.

Analysis by Theresa Lanowitz

2.2 Security at the Application Level Definition: Tools, frameworks and runtime software used to build and deploy next-generation software solutions. The focus of this technology includes a strong emphasis on Web clients, Extensible Markup Language (XML), Web services, mobile devices, data privacy and extended security models.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Application development (AD) and quality assurance organizations do not have the appropriate skills to deliver security at the application level. Tools delivering security content are crucial. Application security is critical to the success of other emerging and embryonic technologies.

Business Impact Areas: Knowledge of a security defect is a critical preventative measure for the business.


Market Penetration: One percent to 5 percent of target audience.

Maturity: Emerging.

Example Vendors: Compuware, Fortify Software, Klocwork, LogicLibrary, SPI Dynamics and Watchfire.


2.3 WinFX Definition: A family of technologies made up of a user interface, messaging, file system and core .NET services native to the Longhorn operating system.



Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: WinFX will be native to the Longhorn operating system, which is expected to be released in 2007. Microsoft has articulated its plans for WinFX; however, real-world use of the technology remains years away.

Business Impact Areas: Next-generation operating system features and services tightly tied to software service models.

Benefit Rating: Moderate.

Market Penetration: Less than 1 percent of target audience.

Maturity: Embryonic.

Example Vendors: Microsoft.

Analysis by Mark Driver

2.4 Device Software Optimization Definition: Device software optimization enables companies to develop and run their device software faster and better, and provides a lower cost of development and delivery. It delivers more reliability to the user.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: By 2009, more than 14 billion devices will be connected and share information companywide. This level of connectivity delivers information from the user to the organization.

Business Impact Areas: Device software optimization completes the supply chain and delivers connectivity to businesses in a way that has yet to be realized. New business models will emerge as a result of this connectivity.

Benefit Rating: Transformational.

Market Penetration: Five percent to 20 percent of target audience.

Maturity: Emerging.

Example Vendors: Microsoft and Wind River.


2.5 Collaborative Tools for the Software Development Life Cycle Definition: Tools enabling communication and collaboration across cultural, geographical and professional boundaries through the entire application life cycle. These tools are spread across multiple tool markets. They are needed for all phases of application development (such as analysis, design, construction, testing and deployment), integration, maintenance and enhancement. They include features for enabling customer-to-developer understanding, support for multiple sites, federated control, remote monitoring, intellectual property and asset protection, and knowledge capture and transfer.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Application delivery globalization — where applications are built and maintained by teams working all over the world — is growing. This increases the risk of miscommunication and distortion, however. As globalization of application delivery accelerates, it raises priorities and expedience of technology vendors' efforts to address growing demand.



Business Impact Areas: Significant mitigation of the risk posed by the globalization of application delivery, respective cost savings and revenue provided by new applications because of collaborative and globally distributed efforts.



Maturity: Emerging.

Example Vendors: CollabNet, Identify Software, iRise, Sofea and VA Software.

Analysis by James Duggan, Joseph Feiman, Theresa Lanowitz and Matt Light

2.6 Aspect-Oriented Software Development Definition: Aspect-oriented programming (AOP) is a software development approach. It is supported by an emerging category of tools that enable programmers to modularize and manage cross-cutting concerns (issues in the program that cut across traditional module boundaries).

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Although AOP has been around for years, it is only now being incorporated into mainstream toolsets and practices. Mainstream programmers have yet to hear about AOP in detail.

Business Impact Areas: AOP eases the maintenance and enhancement of large, complex software systems, and speeds time-to-market for newly built systems.




Example Vendors: BEA Systems (AspectWerkz), IBM (AspectJ), JBoss AOP and Spring.

Analysis by Ray Valdes

2.7 Metadata Repositories Definition: Metadata is an abstracted level of information regarding the characteristics of an artifact, such as its name, location, perceived importance, quality or value to the organization, and its relationship to other artifacts. Technologies called metadata repositories are used to document, manage and perform change impact analysis on metadata in the form of software assets.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Long-term market leaders have been slow to address new demands based on service-oriented architectures, and redesigned business process changes based on workflow and Web enablement. New vendors are evolving to provide the enterprise-class capabilities of long-term leaders. All will continue to converge during the next several years.

Business Impact Areas: Metadata repository technology can be applied to almost any aspect of the enterprise architecture, including the portfolio management and cataloging of software services and companies; business models; data warehousing extraction, transformation and loading (ETL), and business intelligence (BI) transformations and queries; the data architecture; electronic data interchange (EDI); and outsourcing engagements.

Benefit Rating: Moderate; improved processes; revenue increases or cost savings.




Maturity: Emerging.

Example Vendors: Allen Systems Group, Computer Associates International, Flashline and LogicLibrary.

Analysis by Michael Blechar

2.8 CMMI-Based Process Improvement Definition: Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI)-based process improvement is the search for a number on the Software Engineering Institute's (SEI's) CMMI scale of process capability. It’s appropriate for software service providers because they compete based partially on their capabilities. For internal development organizations, however, the tendency is to follow CMMI as a cookbook or to look to it as a destination. Neither is appropriate.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Hype — driven primarily by penetration of the software services market — has led internal application development (AD) organizations to believe that getting a "score" is worthwhile. Organizations will realize, however, that they need methods and best practices, as well as the CMMI framework.

Business Impact Areas: Improved cost structures derived from less rework; more consistent, on-time, on-budget delivery of software for all business areas.




Recommended Reading:

• "Software Process Architecture Supports the AD Process"

Analysis by Matt Hotle and Matt Light

3.0 At the Peak

3.1 Enterprise Architecture Tools Definition: Enterprise architecture tools organize information of interest. This information ranges from high-level business views to physical objects (such as servers).

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: This market is experiencing strong growth, which is attracting increasing numbers of participants with some consolidation occurring. Vendors continue to expand tool capabilities.

Business Impact Areas: Understanding the complex system of IT resources and its support of the business is a significant challenge. The assistance of a tool is essential to obtain an understanding of this system.






Example Vendors: ASG, Casewise, IDS Scheer, Mega International, Proforma, Telelogic and Troux.


• "Magic Quadrant for Enterprise Architecture Tools, 4Q04"

• "Vendor Details for the 4Q04 Enterprise Architecture Tool Magic Quadrant"

Analysis by Greta James

3.2 Architected, Model-Driven SODA Definition: Architected, model-driven project approaches to service-oriented development of applications (SODA) are appropriate for applications, services and components that require robust analysis to understand business rules and requirements, and automate their design and delivery for maximum reuse and performance.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Business process automation, and Unified Modeling Language (UML) methodologies and best practices are still evolving to capture service-oriented business models and rules at a sufficient level of detail for integrated tools to automate or facilitate Enterprise JavaBeans (EJB) and C# components based on them.

Business Impact Areas: Design tools, coupled with code generators, are used to ensure compliance with business and technical models and architectures, while providing productivity and quality improvements.




Example Vendors: Castek, Computer Associates International, IBM (Rational), The Innovation Group and TriReme International.


3.3 Advanced Web Services for AD Definition: Basic Web services with additional Web services standards (for example, WS-S and WS-R) to support a higher quality of service and business-to-business (B2B). The primary purpose of usage is software interoperability for enterprise and B2B server/server and client/server applications.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Advanced Web services standards develop slowly and are slow to generate unity among competing vendors. Most enterprise use of Web services for mission-critical systems draws enterprises to proprietary technologies and short-term solutions. Some of the quality-of-service issues, such as transactional integrity, require a fundamental rethinking of the requirements — still in its early stages.

Business Impact Areas: When delivered, advanced Web services will permit mainstream deployment of standards-based mission-critical transaction processing over multienterprise networks.





Maturity: Emerging.

Example Vendors: The majority of software infrastructure providers.

Analysis by Yefim Natis

3.4 Project Portfolio Management Definition: A project portfolio management approach supporting organizational and procedural change and metrics collections through the use of project/resource management applications.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: There are many early, fragmented point processes. However, true adoption will be paced by training, practices, tools and information to facilitate near-real-time control.

Business Impact Areas: Significant return on investment (ROI) for project-intensive organizations through improved planning, resource utilization, project change management and project communications.



Maturity: Emerging.

Example Vendors: Business Engine, Microsoft, Niku, PlanView, Primavera and Systemcorp.

Analysis by Matt Light

3.5 BPM Suites Definition: Strong agility features link traditional business process automation, business process management (BPM), business rule engines (BREs) and business activity monitoring (BAM) in an integrated fashion for round-trip engineering that supports continuous and instantaneous change and improvement.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: BPM suites with application templates are gaining recognition.

Business Impact Areas: Enables a "jump start," similar to packages, but with more-dynamic, ongoing customization.



Maturity: Emerging.

Example Vendors: FileNet and Pegasystems.


• "Business Process Management Suites Will Be the 'Next Big Thing'"

Analysis by Jim Sinur



3.6 SODA, Composite Applications and ISE Definition: Application development (AD) will experience radical changes through 2008 based on new methods and tools to do service-oriented development of applications (SODA) in support of service-oriented architectures (SOAs).

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Summary of all aspects of SODA from the Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2005.

Business Impact Areas: Provides more cost-effective, flexible and responsive application solutions. Also has an effect on the build vs. buy decision.




Example Vendors: Borland, Compuware, IBM, Oracle and Microsoft.

Analysis by Daryl Plummer

4.0 Sliding Into the Trough

4.1 Scriptless Testing Definition: Scriptless testing uses the skill sets of the subject matter expert and forces a life cycle approach to development.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: The subject matter expert or business analyst's role is increasing in importance. Providing technology to automate this role is key.

Business Impact Areas: The life cycle approach to developing and delivering applications demands quality check points at every juncture.



Maturity: Early mainstream.

Example Vendors: Mercury, Parasoft, Software Development Technologies (SDT) and Worksoft.


4.2 BPM Definition: Business process management (BPM) is an industry-coined term that defines a set of related technologies that help manage business processes and flow in an optimal manner, especially across traditional organizational and systems boundaries.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: BPM is an overcrowded market that is likely to see consolidation in late 2005, but it will be propelled by strong benefits and multiple buying centers.

Business Impact Areas: Explicit processes reduce cost and risk, and enhance agility in response to business needs.






Example Vendors: Advanced Internet Technologies (AIT), Insession Technologies, Singularity and Vision.


• "Magic Quadrant for Pure-Play BPM, 2Q04"

• "Creating a BPM and Workflow Automation Vendor Checklist"


4.3 Legacy Modernization Definition: The ability to transform an established application into a more-modern architecture (or language). Issues include language understanding, business rule extraction, code slicing and procedural to object wrapping or restructuring.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Legacy modernization tooling has been developed during the past decade, but it requires a commitment to process. Promises of evolution to new architectures have exceeded delivery, except for simple to moderately complex applications.

Business Impact Areas: Leveraging assets in new forms eases technology transitions and improves the economics of development.



Maturity: Emerging.

Example Vendors: Cast, IBM, Micro Focus and Relativity Technologies.

Analysis by Dale Vecchio

4.4 ARAD SODA Definition: Architectural and design patterns are modified by the organization's technical architects to adhere to its architectural standards. All code involving the architecture is generated in applications in a compliant manner as part of the architected, rapid application development (ARAD) process.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Architectural standards continue to evolve. Technologies that can use these standards to generate Java 2 Platform, Enterprise Edition (J2EE) and .NET code are emerging.

Business Impact Areas: Design tools, coupled with code generators, are used to ensure compliance with business and technical models and architectures, while providing productivity and quality improvements.



Maturity: Emerging.



Example Vendors: Codagen Technologies, Computer Associates International, IBM (Rational), Interactive Objects, ObjectVenture, Silver Leap Technologies, Sodifrance and Wyde.


4.5 Basic Web Services for AD Definition: These are service-style software modules that use core Web services standards for service definition and invocation (for example, Simple Object Access Protocol and Web Services Description Language). The primary purpose of usage is standard software interoperability for enterprise and business-to-business client/server applications.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Basic Web services are used widely and are supported by a large number of software tools. However, their simple quality-of-service support prevents their use for more-demanding and mission-critical transactions. This technology is approaching its plateau and will re-emerge with the advanced Web services products.

Business Impact Areas: Basic Web services enable standards-based addressability and interoperability between software components across multienterprise networks.




Example Vendors: All software infrastructure vendors.

Analysis by Yefim Natis

5.0 Climbing the Slope

5.1 Enterprise SCCM Definition: Integrated business process for software change and configuration management evolving to encompass a full range of change processes and governance.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Smaller vendors are completing offerings, but user readiness will slow the implementation of integrated business processes.

Business Impact Areas: Explicit processes reduce cost and risk, and enhance agility in response to business needs.




Example Vendors: Computer Associates International, MKS, Serena Software and Telelogic.

Analysis by James Duggan

5.2 Hosted Services Testing Definition: Hosted or managed services enable users to benefit from the intellectual capital of the provider to deliver technical capabilities not provided by the organization.



Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: The hosted model is now accepted by the organization because of loss of technical skill sets, the need to focus on core business competency, and the need to align IT and the business.

Business Impact Areas: Quality assurance organizations must manage the service provider and deliver on the project. The technical skills are not a core part of the organization's business.



Maturity: Mature mainstream.

Example Vendors: Compuware, Empirix, Mercury and Segue Software.


5.3 Open-Source Application Development Tools Definition: Open-source tools for analyzing, designing, developing, testing and debugging programs.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Niche development tools have been around for years. Now, commercial vendors such as IBM, Sun Microsystems and ActiveState have added to these. In particular, IBM's Eclipse workbench framework and related plug-ins are gathering considerable momentum among mainstream developers and are driving open-source tools out of traditional niche markets.

Business Impact Areas: General application development.




Example Vendors: ActiveState, Apache Software Foundation, Free Software Foundation, IBM (Eclipse), Sun Microsystems (NetBeans) and Zend Technologies.


5.4 Performance Testing Definition: The ability to determine the degradation point or breaking point through tests. Critical information sharing across the life cycle aids in identifying performance issues.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Organizations have not yet realized the effect of performance testing to an application and, specifically, to the business. As new architectures emerge and more business is driven through the application, consistent performance will be mandatory.

Business Impact Areas: Loss of business results from dissatisfied customers who use poorly performing applications.






Example Vendors: Compuware, Empirix, HyPerfomix, Mercury, IBM (Rational) and Segue Software.


5.5 UML Methodologies Definition: The de facto standard for representing object-oriented designs. The Unified Modeling Language (UML) continues to develop to support a broader range of concepts with more consistency.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Version 2 of the standard splits support for UML methodologies. A period of instability will delay the broad adoption of extensions.

Business Impact Areas: Improved specification languages close the gap between business requirements and executables.




Example Vendors: Borland, Embarcadero Technologies, IBM and Telelogic.


5.6 Business Rule Engines Definition: Business rule engine is a Gartner term that defines the rule execution space where the rules are sufficiently accessible to less-technical integrators and developers. They support near-real-time business rule changes which provide agility.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Rules externalization is a behavior of all new technologies. They are showing up in hot spots in legacy applications. We expect that rules will play a stronger role in decision optimization as well.

Business Impact Areas: Enables policy and rule agility in reactive modes and predefined scenarios in planning modes at the business and technical infrastructure levels in an organization.




Example Vendors: Computer Associates International, Corticon Technologies, Fair Isaac, Gensym, Haley Systems, Ilog and Pegasystems.


• "Magic Quadrant for Business Rule Engines, 2005"

• "How to Develop a List of Business Rule Engine Selection Requirements"




5.7 3D-Based Process Improvement Definition: 3D-based process improvement follows a rational, results-based format of organizational diagnosis, the development of a change package and the delivering of that package to the organization. It’s focused on outcomes, not "a score." It’s also focused on cultural and organizational change, rather than just processes.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Internal application development (AD) organizations have realized that outcome-based process improvement is valuable. The use of frameworks, such as Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI), combined with their own internal or off-the-shelf methods and best practices are a starting place. Most important, however, is the ability to combine standards and best practices with outcomes, rather than just following standards without regard to impact. Measures are common. They are based specifically on the targeted improvement area, not on a high-level return on investment (ROI) for moving from one level to the next.

Business Impact Areas: Improved cost structures derived from less rework; more consistent, on-time, on-budget delivery of software for all business areas.





• "A '3-D' Approach to Software Process Improvement"

• "Correct Diagnosis Is Crucial to a Successful SPI Effort"

• "Developing the Change Package for Your SPI Effort"

• "A Delivery Plan for Software Process Improvements"

Analysis by Matt Hotle

5.8 BPA Definition: Business process analysis (BPA) is a Gartner term that defines the business modeling space where business professionals and IT designers collaborate on business process designs and architecture frameworks.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: BPA is more focused. Business process modeling is becoming a starting point for business process management (BPM) projects and compliance activities. Linkage to the BPM and business activity monitoring (BAM) markets is driving BPA into the mainstream.

Business Impact Areas: Understanding complex business processes is a significant challenge. The assistance of a tool is essential to realize cost and time savings.




Example Vendors: Casewise, IBM, IDS Scheer, Mega, Proforma and Telelogic (Popkin).




• "Magic Quadrant for Business Process Analysis, 2004"

• "How to Develop a BPA Tool Selection Requirements List"


5.9 .NET-Managed Code Definition: A set of Microsoft software technologies for enabling software integration through the use of Web services.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: .NET is closing the technical gap with Java 2 Platform, Enterprise Edition (J2EE). However, .NET introduces significant discontinuities among developers because they must learn new tools, best practices, development languages and architectural models.

Business Impact Areas: Higher levels of reuse and productivity from service-based development.





5.10 Agile Methodologies Definition: Design-driven methodology for rapid, iterative development. The goals are risk reduction through the incremental discovery of requirements, minimized project overhead and architected, rapid application development (ARAD).

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Agile methodology combinations are being perfected and best practices are being published.

Business Impact Areas: The focus of development is on requirements with the highest perceived priorities to business. Accelerated development is by small increments.




Example Vendors: Borland, IBM, Select Business Solutions and ThoughtWorks.

Analysis by Matt Light

6.0 Entering the Plateau

6.1 Application Quality Ecosystem (was Automated Testing) Definition: Testing targeted in the preproduction phase of the application life cycle. Target audiences are test engineers responsible for black-box testing and traditional white-box testing.



Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Most organizations test, but less than 25 percent of applications released to production have been thoroughly tested. The Application Quality Ecosystem identifies "test" as a quality area of the overall life cycle.

Business Impact Areas: Catastrophic failures affecting revenue and overall competitiveness of an organization. Poor-quality applications can lead to business failure.



Maturity: Mature mainstream.

Example Vendors: Agitar Software, Borland, Compuware, Empirix, Keynote Systems, Mercury, Parasoft, IBM (Rational), Segue Software, Solstice Software, Telelogic and Worksoft.


6.2 J2EE Definition: Sun Microsystems-sponsored architecture specification that prescribes application architecture for Java-based business applications. Java 2 Platform, Enterprise Edition (J2EE) is implemented by multiple vendors as a J2EE application server combined with J2EE message-oriented middleware systems. Programming models of J2EE include Java Server Pages, servlets and Enterprise JavaBeans (EJB).

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: The technology risks associated with J2EE are diminishing. Skill sets among mainstream developers will reach critical mass within the next two years. Challenges remain in mechanics of production deployment.

Business Impact Areas: Tools are needed to make Java feasible for the programming resources available to conservative IT organizations.





6.3 Open-Source Programming Languages Definition: Open-source programming languages.

Justification for Hype Cycle Position/Adoption Speed: Useful and dependable programming languages that focus on pragmatic usability, rather than concept purity. Most of these languages — Perl, PHP and Python — are interpreted, dynamic script languages. They are used mainly for administration and Web development.

Business Impact Areas: General application development and systems administration.


Market Penetration: More than 50 percent of target audience.




Example Vendors: ActiveState, BEA Systems, IBM, Novell, Red Hat, Sun Microsystems and Zend Technologies.


7.0 Appendix A: Previous Iteration of the Hype Cycle

Figure 2. Hype Cycle for Application Development, 2004

Security at the Application Level As of June 2004


Swarm Intelligence

.NET Managed Code

Business Rule Engines

BPM Suites

BPM

Composite Applications J2EE

WinFX

AgileMethodologies

Project Portfolio Management


ARAD SODA

Metadata Management

UML Methodologies


Automated Testing

Collaborative Tools for the Software Development Life Cycle

Mobile Development

Performance Testing

Advanced Web Services

Basic Web Services

BPA

Enterprise SCCM

Less than two years

Two to five years

Five to 10 years

More than 10 years

Key: Time to Plateau

Acronym KeyARAD architected, rapid application developmentBPA business process analysisBPM business process managementBRE business rule engine

J2EE Java 2 Platform, Enterprise EditionSCCM software change and configuration managementSODA service-oriented development of applicationsUML Unified Modeling Language

Technology Trigger

Peak of Inflated Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope of Enlightenment

Plateau of Productivity

Maturity

Visibility

Security at the Application Level As of June 2004


Swarm Intelligence

.NET Managed Code

Business Rule Engines

BPM Suites

BPM

Composite Applications J2EE

WinFX

AgileMethodologies

Project Portfolio Management


ARAD SODA

Metadata Management

UML Methodologies


Automated Testing

Collaborative Tools for the Software Development Life Cycle

Mobile Development

Performance Testing

Advanced Web Services

Basic Web Services

BPA

Enterprise SCCM

Less than two years

Two to five years

Five to 10 years

More than 10 years


Less than two years

Two to five years

Five to 10 years

More than 10 years


Acronym KeyARAD architected, rapid application developmentBPA business process analysisBPM business process managementBRE business rule engine

J2EE Java 2 Platform, Enterprise EditionSCCM software change and configuration managementSODA service-oriented development of applicationsUML Unified Modeling Language

Technology Trigger





Maturity

Visibility

Source: Gartner (June 2004)

8.0 Appendix B: Hype Cycle Phases, Benefit Ratings and Maturity Levels

Table 1. Hype Cycle Phases

Phase Definition

Technology Trigger

A breakthrough, public demonstration, product launch or other event generates significant press and industry interest.


During this phase of overenthusiasm and unrealistic projections, a flurry of well-publicized activity by technology leaders results in some successes, but more failures, as the technology is pushed to its limits. The only enterprises making money are conference organizers and magazine publishers.



Phase Definition


Because the technology does not live up to its overinflated expectations, it rapidly becomes unfashionable. Media interest wanes, except for a few cautionary tales.


Focused experimentation and solid hard work by an increasingly diverse range of organizations lead to a true understanding of the technology's applicability, risks and benefits. Commercial, off-the-shelf methodologies and tools ease the development process.


The real-world benefits of the technology are demonstrated and accepted. Tools and methodologies are increasingly stable as they enter their second and third generations. The final height of the plateau varies according to whether the technology is broadly applicable or benefits only a niche market. Approximately 30 percent of the technology's target audience has adopted or is adopting the technology as it enters the Plateau.

Time to Plateau (Adoption Speed)

The time required for the technology to reach the Plateau of Productivity.


Table 2. Benefit Ratings

Benefit Rating Definition

Transformational Enables new ways of doing business across industries that will result in major shifts in industry dynamics

High Enables new ways of performing horizontal or vertical applications that will result in significantly increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise

Moderate Provides incremental, but significant, improvements to established processes that will result in increased revenue or cost savings for an enterprise

Low Slightly improves processes (for example, improved user experience) that will be difficult to translate into increased revenue or cost savings


Table 3. Maturity Levels

Maturity Level Status Products/Vendors

Embryonic In labs None

Emerging Commercialization by vendors Pilots and deployments by industry leaders

First generation High price Much customization

Adolescent Maturing technology capabilities and process understanding Uptake beyond early adopters

Second generation Less customization

Early mainstream Proven technology Vendors, technology and adoption rapidly evolving

Third generation More out of box Methodologies

Mature mainstream

Robust technology Not much evolution in vendors or technology

Several dominant vendors

Legacy Not appropriate for new developments Cost of migration constrains replacement

Maintenance revenue focus



Maturity Level Status Products/Vendors

Obsolete Rarely used Used/resale market only Source: Gartner (June 2005)

RECOMMENDED READING

"Understanding Gartner's Hype Cycles, 2005"

Acronym Key and Glossary Terms

AD application development

AIT Advanced Internet Technologies

AOP aspect-oriented programming

ARAD architected, rapid application development

B2B business-to-business

BAM business activity monitoring

BI business intelligence

BPA business process analysis

BPM business process management

BRE business rule engine

CMMI Capability Maturity Model Integration

EDI electronic data interchange

EJB Enterprise JavaBeans

ETL extraction, transformation and loading

ISE integrated service environment

J2EE Java 2 Platform, Enterprise Edition

ROI return on investment

RTE real-time enterprise

SDT Advanced Internet Technologies

SEI Software Engineering Institute

SOA service-oriented architecture

SODA service-oriented development of applications

UML Unified Modeling Language

XML Extensible Markup Language



This research is part of a set of related research pieces. See "Gartner's Hype Cycle Special Report for 2005" for an overview.

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