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Green energy, the key to the future of our planet
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© Fraunhofer ISE
Green Energy -the Key to the Future of our planet
Eicke R. Weber
Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
and
Albert-Ludwigs University, Freiburg, Germany
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Fraunhofer-Institute for Solar Energy Systems ISE
Largest European solar energy research institute
>930 members of staff (incl. students)
Areas of business:
• Photovoltaics • Solar Thermal Technologies • Renewable Power Generation • Energy-Efficient Buildings and
Technical Building Components• Applied Optics and Functional
Surfaces• Hydrogen Technology
10% basic financing 90% contract research 40% industry, 60% public € 56 M total budget (‘09) > 10% p.a. growth rate
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Challenges of Today‘s Situation:
� COP-15 is widely considered a failure, as it did not result in binding CO2 - reduction targets.
� Still, COP-15 lead to global acceptance of the 2oC target as maximum permissible warming; more will definitely result in climate-disaster.
� This means, the world cannot emit more than 750 Gt of CO2 during this century; it currently emits about 35 Gt of CO2 per year (9.5 Gt C/a) !
� Instead of waiting for politics to succeed, we should work for the fastest possible transitioninto a green energy future!
Holocene
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Price of fossil energy, example oil price
2001 2004 2007 20100
50
100
150
Brent Crude Oil
USD
/KG
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
The transformation into a green energy future requi res
� Increased energy efficiency in buildings, transport (e-mobility) and production
� Rapid development of all renewable energies, especially wind, PV, ST, hydro, geothermal and biomass towards a 100% renewable energy future
� Expansion of the electricity grid for long-distance transport and smart users
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
CO2 - free sources of energy
� Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, final storage not clear, dangers during operation: no good solution for the global energy problem
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Price of uranium
2001 2004 2007 20100
50
100
150
200
250
300 Uranium
USD
/KG
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Nuclear energy – new installed power
Quelle: IAEA
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
New installed power– nuclear and renewable power
Quellen: IAEA, Navigant Consulting, DEWI
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
CO2 - free sources of energy
� Nuclear energy - non-renewable feedstock, final storage not clear, dangers during operation: no good solution for the global energy problem
� Clean coal technologies - requires carbon sequestration, unproven technology, energy inefficient, may pose danger of accidental release
� Wind - fluctuating production, limited number of suitable sites
� Hydro - can be switched on instantaneously, suitable for storage, good sites limited, production should be maximized
� Biofuels - interesting as liquid fuel for traffic, production energy intensive
� Geothermal - excellent where easily accessible (example: Island)
� Solar energy (Photovoltaics, Solarthermal) - unlimited energy source PV: continuous price reduction through savings of scale
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Exemplary Path, global primary energy consumption
Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de
Other Renewables
Oil
Coal
Gas
Nuclear Energy
HydropowerBiomass (traditional)Biomass (modern)
Solar Electricity (PV und solarthermal)
Solarthermal (Heat only)
Geothermal
Wind
Year2000 2020 2040
200
600
1000
1400
2100
EJ/a
0
10
30
40
50
20
TW
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Magnitude of Solar Energy
� Each hour the sun delivers to earth the amount of energy used by humans in a whole year
� Sun radiation onto earth corresponds to 120,000 TW
� Total human energy need in 2020: 20TW!
Source: G.W. Crabtree and N.S. Lewis, Physics Today, March 2007
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Annual installation of PV modules (worldwide)
Sources: 2000-2003 Strategies Unlimited, 2006 EPIA “solar generation”, 2007 LBBW Report, 2010 SolarBuzz
AnnualModuleShipment(CrystallineSilicon)
MWp/a
2000 20122005 2010
15% Growth
25% Growth
2001 2002 2003 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011
1,600
2,000
4,000
1,200
800
400
3,600
3,200
2,800
2,400
4,400
4,800
40 % CAGR
Projection (2003)Actual Shipments
2009: 6,43 GWp
2003: 600 MWp
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Technologies in the global PV-market
2005
2000
1995
1990
1985
1980
2007
Mono-Si
Thin-Film
Multi-Si
Ribbon-Si
First 20% Mono-Siproduction cell (100cm²)
Renewable Energy law, GER
Residential roof program, JPN
First 20% Mono-Si lab cell (4cm²)1990: 1/3 thin-film, c-Si, ms-Si2007: > 90% c-Si & mc-Si!
3 GWp
Slide courtesy of G. Willeke
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
High-Efficiency ISE solar cell structure for mc sil icon
Thermal oxide:Surface passivation and high internal reflectivity
Plasma-textured surface:
Low reflection and good „light trapping“
Laser-fired contacts(LFC): Low contact resistanceand high voltage
Wafer thickness: 99 µm
Efficiency: 20.3% (1 cm2)
world record for mc-Si!
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
From mg-Si to ultrapure poly-Si: the Siemens Proces s
‘fluidised bed’ reactor fractional distillation
mg-Si powder
hot Si dust
exhaust (SiHCl3, SiCL4, H2, Metall Chloride)
heating elements
HCl
quartz tube
ca. 30.000 t/aca. $100/kg
Alternative Technology for PV:upgraded metallurgical Si, umg-Si (‚dirty silicon‘)
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Price learn-curve of crystalline Si PV-modules
10-4 10-3 10-2 10-1 1 10 102 103
d [µm] = 400 300 200 100 50
ηcell [%] = 10 15 18 20
slope: 22% decrease for each doubling of installed capacity
20202010(25%)
[€/Wp]
100
10
1
19801990
20002004
Installed Peak Power (cumulated) [GWp]
(30%)
2007
Slide courtesy of G. Willeke
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
High-efficiency ISE triple-junction solar cells
Ga0.65In0.35P
tunnel diode
Ga0.83In0.17As
tunnel diode
Ge substrate
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
ηηηη = 41.1 %
Cur
rent
[A]
Voltage [mV]
2517-3-01-17 Ga
0.35In
0.65P/Ga
0.83In
0.17As/Ge
C = 454 x, T = 25 °C (C = 1: AM1.5d, ASTM G173-03, 1000 W/m²) I
SC = 380.5 mA
VOC
= 2867 mV
FF = 87.2 % A = 0.0509 cm²
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Realization : FLATCON ® System by Concentrix
� III-V based tandem cells
� Cgeo = 500x
� Point focus Fresnel lenses
� Housing made of glass
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
An important advantage of large-area CPV: land use
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Thin-film CIS Solar cell structure
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Segmentation of the Efficiencies in the Solar Cell Market
� 1 - 5 %: Organic, Dye, Nanostructure Cells
� 6 - 11%: Thin film cells (a-Si, microcryst.-Si, CIS, CIGS, CdTe)
� 14 - 18%: mc-Si, umg-Si, simple c-Si cells
� 20 - 24%: High efficiency, mainly c-Si cells
� 36 - 41.1%: High-efficiency III/V tandem cells for concentrators with 25 - 30% module efficiency
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Concentrated Solar (Thermal) Power CSP Technologies
C ~ 500-1000comm. demo
ηa ~ 10%-15%
LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh
C ~ 300-4000demo
ηa ~ 14%-18%
LEC2020 ~ ?
C ~ 60-120demo
ηa ~10%-12%
LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh
C ~ 70-90commercial
ηa ~ 12%-14%
LEC2020 ~ 5ct/kWh
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
ν Predictions of different studies
ν Expected for 2020:
ca. 20 GWp installed
Expected CSP Market Development
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
cum
ulat
ed c
apac
ity [G
We]
Morse 2000
Pilkington
Sunlab 2001
S&L 2003
ESTIA 2005
Sarrazin 2007
BMU 2006
GMI
IEA Solarpaces
© FraunhoferISE
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Existing and Future Solar Thermal Power Plants
about 500 MW operating, 2500 MW under construction, 9000 MW in Planning
Quelle: Kost (Fraunhofer ISE)
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Desertec - vision of an electricity super grid
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Wind onshore: $ 1 -2 / Wp, on the average 2000-2500h/a
Nuclear: $ 5-7/W, 6000-7000 operation hours/a, + costs of nuclear fuel, operation, final storage
CSP: $ 2 - 4 / Wp without storage, 1500-2500h/a in high-sunshine$ 3 - 5 / Wp with storage,
+ costs of maintainance
Costs to build new power plants
Wind offshore: $ 3 - 4 Wp, up to 3500h/a, high maintainance costs
Photovoltaic: $ 2,50 - 3 / Wp, 800-1000h/a in Germany, 1500-2500h/a in high-sunshine regions
Source: E.R. Weber
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Electricity Costs of Renewable Energies
� Electricity Costs depend on number of operating hours
� On-shore wind reaches parity with fossil energies
� PV at good locations competitive with CSP
PV klein
1000
PV groß
2000
CSP
mit Speicher
2000
CSP
ohne Speicher
2000
Wind
onshore
2000
Wind
offshore
3200
Strommix
fossil
Leitszenario 2009
Medium
Number: kWhr/kWp for PV, CSP, and wind
Slide courtesy of C. Kost (Fraunhofer ISE)
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
100% Renewable Electricity: the Energy Storage Prob lem
� Energy harvested from the sun and wind is fluctuating in nature; this can be partially balanced by hydro, biomass and geothermal energies
� An efficient energy storage system is highly desirable; first in line is hydro, as water pumped to elevated altitude or variable-flow dams
� Current battery technologies are too expensive; an exception could be redox-flow batteries that essentially store electric charge
� Solar-generated Hydrogen combined with fuel cells might get cost-competitive with further development
� Ultimately, a global electricity grid based on HVDC lines might eliminate this problem: The sun shines at any time of the day somewhere on the globe
� Heat storage in CSP Solar Thermal Power plants is readily available
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Failure of COP-15 (Kopenhagen 2009): Negative Goal
� Climate Scientists:Earth can afford only 750 Gt of additional CO2 - emissions,to limit global warming to 2oC
� Politics: Negotiate treaties to limit national CO2 - emissions, see COP-15
� Voters (esp. in USA):Object limits on convenience of living through CO2 emission limitations
� Emerging Countries (e.g., China):Limitations and reductions of CO2 - emissions not acceptable, per-capita emissions are much smaller than in industrialized countries
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Better: Positive Goals: RE und EE
� Regenerative Energy Goal : % RE in Electricity, Energy consumption
- 20% (Germany: 30-40%) RE in total energy by 2020
- 100% RE in electricity by 2030 seem to be possible (e.g., M. Jacobson)
� Governments: these goals can be directly influenced by politics
� Voters : positive Goals present a challenge (c.f., landing on the moon)
� Economies: Jobs in high- und low-Technologies
� Support of RE, EE: economic stimulus programs
Advantages of RE and EE Goals:
� Energy - Efficiency Goal: Energy intensity of GNP in kWh/$ GNP
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
Conclusion: The Green Energy Future
� Our climate goals can only be achieved with more efficient energy use and rapid introduction of renewable energies worldwide;
� All sources of renewable energy should be developed. Among those, harvesting solar electricity will be a leading technology, as solar energy is virtually unlimited available.
� Direct photovoltaic (PV) energy conversion is based on semiconductor technology; the price will follow a steep learning curve, so that solar energy will get competitive with electricity from fossil and nuclear sources.
� Electricity from solar thermal energy conversion (CSP) is cost competitive today, and has advantages in heat storage; however, the learning curve seems to have a smaller slope, so that PV might create lowest-cost solar electricity.
� Ultimately, the green energy market will soon be a 100s of bn-$ market, providing millions of jobs and energy without fuel costs worldwide.
© Fraunhofer ISE
NAC 2010, NSTDA Bangkok March 29, 2010
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