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ExCo 05 // 20-22 September 2011
Author
Presentation CEM
02
Fe
bru
ary
15
, 2
01
1
a
May 2
, 20
11
Market Penetration of Energy Efficient
Technology: Role of Government Action
Amit [email protected]
ExCo 05 // 20-22 September 2011
Government Action can
Accelerate Progress
on EE Technology Deployment
& Market PenetrationGovernment Action Can
Provide R&D Support Promote Public Awareness Provide Policy Stability
Support markets and industry Provide predictable regime
Establish Regulations, Standards & LabelsMonitor, verify & enforce standardsUse labels - promote awareness and branding
2
ExCo 05 // 20-22 September 2011Government Action: Japan’s Top
Runner Program
Energy conservation law prescribes energy efficiency standards for appliances/vehicles Standards - set higher than the best
performance value of each product currently on sale in the market (pull)
Standard setting takes into account technological development 21 products are included Low technology products are phased out
(push)
3
ExCo 05 // 20-22 September 2011
Government Action: Japan’s
Top Runner Program
(continued)Example: passenger vehicle standards were set in
1999 Target: By 2010, fuel economy improvement
would be 22.8% Fuel economy of passenger vehicles improved
by 22.8% during 1999-2005Example: air conditioners saw EE improvement of
67.4% between 1999-2004 Companies utilized technologies that they may
otherwise have waited to commercialize Improved consumer and retailer awareness –
using labels, etc. - accelerated pace of market penetration
4
ExCo 05 // 20-22 September 2011
Government Action: USA’s
Refrigerator Standards, Labels &
Incentives Program
Between 1945 and 2010, the average refrigerator volume has increased from 8 cubic ft. to 21 cubic ft.
Government action on standards, labels and incentives led to sustained EE improvement During 1945-1978 the annual energy used by a
typical refrigerator quadrupled In 1978, refrigerator standards were introduced in
California – other states followed Since 1978, the annual energy used by a typical
refrigerator has declined steadily - reached 1945 levels in 2010 This has not interrupted the long-term decline in real
purchase price – declined from $1,000 to $600 (2009$) 5
ExCo 05 // 20-22 September 2011
Government Action: USA’s
Refrigerator Standards, Labels &
Incentives Program (continued)
Government action on Standards, Labels and Incentives has accelerated the decline in life cycle costs (LCC) of refrigerators During 1945-1978, refrigerator LCC remained
steady at $5,000 (2009$) During 1978-2010, refrigerator LCC declined
steadily to $1,000 ((2009$)
Government action has led to savings of about $20 billion/year in 2010 and $300 billion cumulative since 1978
6
ExCo 05 // 20-22 September 2011Transition Technologies, Products and Services Follow Parallel Journeys
Technology Journey
Company Journey
Market Journey
Regulation Journey
7
ExCo 05 // 20-22 September 2011Transition Technologies, Products and Services Follow Parallel Journeys
8
Basic research
Individual innovators
General regulation
Applied research
Early demonstratio
n
Full demonstratio
n
Marketed product
Warranted product
Small group: start-up /unit in a
company
Medium-size operation
Large scale operation
Demonstration & sample
distribution
Early adopters &
niches
Rational economic purchase
Technology & Market
evaluation
General regulatio
n
Specific regulatio
n
Technology Journey
Company Journey
Market Journey
Regulation Journey
Principle Concept Validity Viability Value Quality
Own capital Venture Capital Revenues Profits
Awareness Positive Potential Market Pull Feedback
General regulatio
n
General regulation
NegativeOften unintended Neutral Positive Positive Neutral or positive
ExCo 05 // 20-22 September 2011
Effective Government Action Recognizes the Stage of Each Journey
A “policy package” constitutes effective action In Japan, government action enhanced market
pull by using specific (positive) regulation to provide proof of value and positive profits
In the US, progress on the regulation journey from specific (positive) to general (neutral) has been accompanied by movement on the market journey from early adopters to market evolution
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