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Futures in Computing 1 Bryan Costanich, Vice President @bryancostanich slideshare.net/bryancostanich [email protected]

Futures in Computing

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Page 1: Futures in Computing

Futures in Computing

1

Bryan Costanich,

Vice President

@bryancostanich

slideshare.net/bryancostanich

[email protected]

Page 2: Futures in Computing

The Futureis Now

Page 3: Futures in Computing

Futures In Computing

In your Pocket

Page 4: Futures in Computing

Conclusion Future of Computing

What is Next?

Mobile IoT Artificial Intelligence

Page 5: Futures in Computing

Conclusion Future of Computing

Why Do We Care?

• Actionable

• Target efforts to maximize impact

• Reduce risk

• FUN!!

Page 6: Futures in Computing

Conclusion Future of Computing

Why Predictions Fail

• Just because something is technically possible, doesn’t mean it will happen.

• Social and cultural customs, as well as practical limitations influence the adoption of technology.

• They also cause us to create relationships we couldn’t have imagined.

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Part 1Mobile Futures

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

Current State

• Mobile used to be the next big thing, now it is.

• Mobile is Eating the World

Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

Mobile Penetration

Global adult population

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

Mobile is Killing the Desktop

More time is spent online via mobile than all other media combined.

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

The Declineof the PC4B buying every 2 years instead of 1.6bn buying every 5 years

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

Mobile is Everywhere

• In 2020, 80%

of adults will own a

smartphone globally.

• 4 billion phones

• Today, ~700 million

consumer PCs

Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

Mobile = Pocket Supercomputer

• iPhone 6 = 625x transistorsof a Pentium from 1995

• Also; GPU, Camera, Compass, GPS, Accelerometer, NFC, Bluetooth, etc.

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

Remember the Platform Wars?

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

15.6%81.1%

2.6%

Android

IOS

Windows

The iOS + Android Club

2015 Market share

+

App Store Revenue

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

Microsoft – Down not out?

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

App-store Dollars are Hard. More

difficult all the time.

• 90% of all appsdownloaded areonly used once

• Most app categories are saturated

App Revenue Split

App Store Ad Spends Margin

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

18

Enterprise Gold Rush

• Microsoft Bought Acompli for $200MM

• Slack: $1Billion Valuation in less than a year! They add $1MM ARR every 11 days

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

Enterprise vs. Consumer App Devs

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

Ecommerce

• Mobile ecommerce represents 2.5x the revenue of all other sources combined!

2015 App Economy Revenues

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

App Developers are under

allocating ecommerce

• Only 9% of developers are building apps with ecommerce built in

Share of app developersusing each revenue model

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

22

So where is the money?

• Hard to make app store money.

• Money in the enterprise/established businesses investing in mobile

• Make new opportunities

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Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

23

Emerging Tech, Emerging Opportunities

• Now is the time to be creative.

• Unicorn Club (>$1B Valuation) started by single engineers.

• Integrated, Contextual Experiences

Page 24: Futures in Computing

Part 2Internet of Things => (IoT) {

Integrated and Contextual Computing }

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Part 2 - IoT; Wearables, Home Automation Future of Computing

What is Internet of Things (IoT)?

• Wearables

• Smart Home/building Tech

• Connected Cars

• Industrial Solutions

• Medical Devices

• Etc.

These categories miss the point. It’s about the experience you create with it.

Page 26: Futures in Computing

Part 2 - IoT; Wearables, Home Automation Future of Computing

Nest

Part 2 - IoT; Wearables, Home Automation Future of Computing

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Part 2 - IoT; Wearables, Home Automation Future of Computing

• Built with off the shelf components

• Commoditized connective components; LCD, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, Battery, etc.

• Essentially a reconfigured phone

• Mobile Supply Chain => IoT Supply Chain

How Nest was Possible; the IoT Supply Chain

Page 28: Futures in Computing

Part 2 - IoT; Wearables, Home Automation Future of Computing

• Hardware being developed at the speed of software

• Can develop in .NET, Java, + other high-level languages

• Someone in this room may build the next Nest

A Hardware Renaissance

Page 29: Futures in Computing

Part 2 - IoT; Wearables, Home Automation Future of Computing

• Integrated is already passé

• Everything is integrated now

• Context is King

Integrated, Contextual Computing

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Part 2 - IoT; Wearables, Home Automation Future of Computing

• Lots of new devices, each device is an experience multiplier

• More Ubiquitous

- The Rise of Wearables, iBeacons, Smart devices everywhere

• Near 100% Connectivity + Standard Protocols

• Much Richer, more integrated experiences

- Nest/Smart Lights, vs. the home of the future

• AI

What’s Next for Contextual Computing, Née IoT?

Page 31: Futures in Computing

Part 3Artificial Intelligence => {

Cognitive Computing}

Page 32: Futures in Computing

AI in Culture

Page 33: Futures in Computing

Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

vimeo.com/bryancostanich/slumptown

Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

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Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

• Do not be afraid just yet.

• Artificial Intelligence => Cognitive Computing

• Task-based problem solving

• All around us

AI in Context

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Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

• We interact with AI every day.

• Cortana, Google Now, Siri, and Facebook M

• Amazon Product Recommendations

• RDIO, Spotify, MixRadio, Apple Music

The State of the Cognitive Computing Art

Page 36: Futures in Computing

Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of ComputingPart 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

IBM’s Watson

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Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

• Expert Assistance

• Predictive Customer Engagement

• Accessibility for the Disabled

• Data Analysis/Narrative Intelligence

• Communication

Cognitive Computing Availableto Developers

Page 38: Futures in Computing

Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

• Easy to use GUI

• Built in Big data

• Analytics/Intelligence

• Automatic Web Services

Azure Machine Learning

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Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

Natural Language Generation (from big data)

• Quill by Narrative Science

• Wordsmith by Automated Insights

• Yseop

Ads and Media

• Admantx

• Affdex by Affectiva

Other Cognitive Computing ServicesCall Center/Customer Service Optimization

• Mattersight

• Wise.io

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Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

Other Cognitive Computing ServicesWatson Powered

IBM Watson Explorer - Enterprise BI and Analytics

Fluid (powered by IBM’s Watson) - Shopping assistance

Sofie (powered by IMB’s Watson) - Medical diagnosis for veterinarians.

Others

Beyond Verbal - Analyzes Emotions from Voice

[24]7 - Predictive Sales

Nuance - Speech Enablement

SparkCognition - A suite of products including analytics and prediction, threat detection, and machine learning

Page 41: Futures in Computing

Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

• Humans vs. Robots might be too simple

• Human/computer interface + Bioengineering will blur lines

• Biological based Cognitive Computing

• Nerve -> Electronic Interfaces are getting better (cochlear and retina implants, prosthetics, etc.)

The False Dichotomy of AI

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Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of ComputingPart 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

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Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

• Still have a long way to go to match humans - 4th place supercomputer is 1% of human brain power

• Likely that by the time brain level of AI is here, computer/human interface will be well advanced

• Computers are becoming us, but we’re becoming computers, too.

• Term: “External Brain”

Computing and Humanity

Page 44: Futures in Computing

Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

• Much smarter, faster, and more natural

• Will get integrated everywhere, we’ve already stopped noticing it exists.

• Socioeconomic challenge will come before the humanity challenge.

• Humans Need Not Apply

Future of AI

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Conclusion

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Conclusion Future of Computing

Tempering the Future

Remember; Just because something is possible doesn’t mean it’ll happen

Page 47: Futures in Computing

Conclusion Future of Computing

Go Forth and Build. Change the World, for the Better!

• The future is what we make it!

• Mobile is king, Hardware is easy, AI is ubiquitous.

• Focus on the experience, the tech will follow.