Futures in Computing

Futures in Computing

1

Bryan Costanich,

Vice President

@bryancostanich

slideshare.net/bryancostanich

[email protected]

The Futureis Now

Futures In Computing

In your Pocket

Conclusion Future of Computing

What is Next?

Mobile IoT Artificial Intelligence


Why Do We Care?

• Actionable

• Target efforts to maximize impact

• Reduce risk

• FUN!!


Why Predictions Fail

• Just because something is technically possible, doesn’t mean it will happen.

• Social and cultural customs, as well as practical limitations influence the adoption of technology.

• They also cause us to create relationships we couldn’t have imagined.

Part 1Mobile Futures

Part 1 - Mobile Futures Future of Computing

Current State

• Mobile used to be the next big thing, now it is.

• Mobile is Eating the World


http://a16z.com/2015/06/19/mobile-it-changes-everything/


Mobile Penetration

Global adult population


Mobile is Killing the Desktop

More time is spent online via mobile than all other media combined.


The Declineof the PC4B buying every 2 years instead of 1.6bn buying every 5 years


Mobile is Everywhere

• In 2020, 80%

of adults will own a

smartphone globally.

• 4 billion phones

• Today, ~700 million

consumer PCs



Mobile = Pocket Supercomputer

• iPhone 6 = 625x transistorsof a Pentium from 1995

• Also; GPU, Camera, Compass, GPS, Accelerometer, NFC, Bluetooth, etc.


Remember the Platform Wars?


15.6%81.1%

2.6%

Android

IOS

Windows

The iOS + Android Club

2015 Market share

+

App Store Revenue


Microsoft – Down not out?


App-store Dollars are Hard. More

difficult all the time.

• 90% of all appsdownloaded areonly used once

• Most app categories are saturated

App Revenue Split

App Store Ad Spends Margin


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Enterprise Gold Rush

• Microsoft Bought Acompli for $200MM

• Slack: $1Billion Valuation in less than a year! They add $1MM ARR every 11 days


Enterprise vs. Consumer App Devs


Ecommerce

• Mobile ecommerce represents 2.5x the revenue of all other sources combined!

2015 App Economy Revenues


App Developers are under

allocating ecommerce

• Only 9% of developers are building apps with ecommerce built in

Share of app developersusing each revenue model


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So where is the money?

• Hard to make app store money.

• Money in the enterprise/established businesses investing in mobile

• Make new opportunities


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Emerging Tech, Emerging Opportunities

• Now is the time to be creative.

• Unicorn Club (>$1B Valuation) started by single engineers.

• Integrated, Contextual Experiences

Part 2Internet of Things => (IoT) {

Integrated and Contextual Computing }

Part 2 - IoT; Wearables, Home Automation Future of Computing

What is Internet of Things (IoT)?

• Wearables

• Smart Home/building Tech

• Connected Cars

• Industrial Solutions

• Medical Devices

• Etc.

These categories miss the point. It’s about the experience you create with it.


Nest



• Built with off the shelf components

• Commoditized connective components; LCD, Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, Battery, etc.

• Essentially a reconfigured phone

• Mobile Supply Chain => IoT Supply Chain

How Nest was Possible; the IoT Supply Chain


• Hardware being developed at the speed of software

• Can develop in .NET, Java, + other high-level languages

• Someone in this room may build the next Nest

A Hardware Renaissance


• Integrated is already passé

• Everything is integrated now

• Context is King

Integrated, Contextual Computing


• Lots of new devices, each device is an experience multiplier

• More Ubiquitous

- The Rise of Wearables, iBeacons, Smart devices everywhere

• Near 100% Connectivity + Standard Protocols

• Much Richer, more integrated experiences

- Nest/Smart Lights, vs. the home of the future

• AI

What’s Next for Contextual Computing, Née IoT?

Part 3Artificial Intelligence => {

Cognitive Computing}

AI in Culture

Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

vimeo.com/bryancostanich/slumptown



• Do not be afraid just yet.

• Artificial Intelligence => Cognitive Computing

• Task-based problem solving

• All around us

AI in Context


• We interact with AI every day.

• Cortana, Google Now, Siri, and Facebook M

• Amazon Product Recommendations

• RDIO, Spotify, MixRadio, Apple Music

The State of the Cognitive Computing Art

Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of ComputingPart 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing

IBM’s Watson


• Expert Assistance

• Predictive Customer Engagement

• Accessibility for the Disabled

• Data Analysis/Narrative Intelligence

• Communication

Cognitive Computing Availableto Developers


• Easy to use GUI

• Built in Big data

• Analytics/Intelligence

• Automatic Web Services

Azure Machine Learning


Natural Language Generation (from big data)

• Quill by Narrative Science

• Wordsmith by Automated Insights

• Yseop

Ads and Media

• Admantx

• Affdex by Affectiva

Other Cognitive Computing ServicesCall Center/Customer Service Optimization

• Mattersight

• Wise.io

http://www.narrativescience.com/quill

http://automatedinsights.com/wordsmith/

http://www.yseop.com/blog/?lang=en

http://www.admantx.com/

http://www.affectiva.com/solutions/affdex/

http://www.mattersight.com/

http://www.wise.io/


Other Cognitive Computing ServicesWatson Powered

IBM Watson Explorer - Enterprise BI and Analytics

Fluid (powered by IBM’s Watson) - Shopping assistance

Sofie (powered by IMB’s Watson) - Medical diagnosis for veterinarians.

Others

Beyond Verbal - Analyzes Emotions from Voice

[24]7 - Predictive Sales

Nuance - Speech Enablement

SparkCognition - A suite of products including analytics and prediction, threat detection, and machine learning

http://www.ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/en/ibmwatson/explorer.html

http://www.fluid.com/e-commerce/the-soul-of-shopping

http://www.fluid.com/e-commerce/the-soul-of-shopping

http://www.beyondverbal.com/

http://www.247-inc.com/

http://www.nuance.com/

http://sparkcognition.com/


• Humans vs. Robots might be too simple

• Human/computer interface + Bioengineering will blur lines

• Biological based Cognitive Computing

• Nerve -> Electronic Interfaces are getting better (cochlear and retina implants, prosthetics, etc.)

The False Dichotomy of AI

Part 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of ComputingPart 3 - Artificial Intelligence Future of Computing


• Still have a long way to go to match humans - 4th place supercomputer is 1% of human brain power

• Likely that by the time brain level of AI is here, computer/human interface will be well advanced

• Computers are becoming us, but we’re becoming computers, too.

• Term: “External Brain”

Computing and Humanity

http://gizmodo.com/an-83-000-processor-supercomputer-only-matched-one-perc-1045026757


• Much smarter, faster, and more natural

• Will get integrated everywhere, we’ve already stopped noticing it exists.

• Socioeconomic challenge will come before the humanity challenge.

• Humans Need Not Apply

Future of AI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

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Conclusion


Tempering the Future

Remember; Just because something is possible doesn’t mean it’ll happen


Go Forth and Build. Change the World, for the Better!

• The future is what we make it!

• Mobile is king, Hardware is easy, AI is ubiquitous.

• Focus on the experience, the tech will follow.

Technology

Futures in Computing