PRR 475 Review - Tips

• Powerpoint Presentations – widgets too

• Topic Handouts

• Sample Questions

• Other Handouts e.g. Statistics

• Exercises from Lab

• Trochim chapters

• Other texts, websites

Research/Evaluation Concepts – evaluation.ppt

Proposals & Research Design –propdesb.ppt

Measurement –measure.ppt

Sampling –sample.ppt

Survey methods –survey99.ppt

Basic Statistics/Data analysis - handouts

Experiments –expmt.ppt

Observ., qualitative, other methods –QLQN.ppt, econevaluation.ppt

Communication & Ethics researchwriting.ppt, ethics.ppt

Outline

• Definitions of Research/Evaluation

• Purposes of Evaluation / Research

• Science and Scientific Management

• Research/Evaluation as Process

• Types of Research / Evaluation

Definitions

• Evaluation = Process of judging the merit or worth of something

• Research – application of scientific methods to answer

questions– controlled inquiry directed at increasing

knowledge/establishing truth

• Evaluation Research - combine the two

Science

• Body of Knowledge

• systematic• abstract• general• parsimonious

• Method of Inquiry

• logical– induction– deduction

• self-corrective• empirical

Scientific Management

• Application of scientific principles to management and decision making

– systematic information gathering– empirical, objective, self-corrective

Process -- Steps

Research• define problem• objectives/hypotheses• literature review• research methods• gather data/analysis• conclusions

Evaluation• describe program• evaluation criteria• program scoping• evaluation methods• gather data/analysis• conclusions

Types of Evaluationby Program Stage

• formative (conceptualization/design)]

• process (implementation)

• summative (outcomes, impacts, efficiency)

Types - By Approach

• Standards– norm-based– criterion-referenced

• Goals and objectives

• Impacts or effects

Evaluation Criteria

• Effort - qnty and qlty of inputs

• Performance - qnty and qlty of outputs

• Adequacy - meet needs?

• Efficiency - benefits/costs

• Equity - distributional issues, fairness

Process Evaluation

• Identifies how and why program works– attributes – recipients– conditions– effects

• single or multiple• intended or side effects• timing & duration, long/short term• cognitive, affective or behavioral

Research Process Define Problem, Research Objectives

HOW?

Overall Method•Survey•Experiment•Case Study•Secondary Data

What?•Concepts•Variables•Measures

Who?•Population•Sampling

Data Gathering

Analysis

Application

Proposal Format

1. Problem Statement - define program to be evaluated/problem to be studied, users & uses of results. Justify importance of the problem/study.

2. Objectives : Concise listing . In evaluation studies, the objectives usually focus on the key elements of program to be evaluated & the evaluation criteria. These are the study objectives NOT the program objectives.

3. Background/Literature Review - place for more extensive history/structure of program. Focus on aspects most relevant to proposed evaluation. Discuss previous studies or the relevant methods.

4. Methods - details on procedures for achieving objectives - data gathering and analysis, population, sampling, measures, etc. Who will do what to whom, when, where, how and why?

5. Attachments - budget, timeline, measurement instruments, etc.

NOTE: Most “programs” must be narrowed to specific components to be evaluated. Think of a “Program of studies” rather than a single evaluation study. The proposal should define this specific study & how it fits into a broader program of studies.

Purposes of Proposal

• Communicate with Client• Demonstrate your grasp of problem• Plan the study in advance, so others can

evaluate the study approach– will it work?– have you overlooked something?– will results be useful to client?– Can we afford it?

Sample Objectives

1. Estimate benefits and costs of program

2. Estimate economic impacts of program on local community (social, environmental, fiscal).

3. Determine effects of program on target population.

4. Describe users and non-users of program

5. Assess community recreation needs, preferences

6. Determine market/financial feasibility of program

7. Evaluate adequacy or performance of program

Methods Choices

• Overall Approach/Design– Qualitative or Quantitative– Primary or secondary data– Survey, experiment, case study, etc.

• Who to study - population, sample– individuals, market segments, populations

• What to study - concepts, measures– behavior, knowledge, attitudes

• Cost vs Benefit of Study

Definition & Measurement

“measurement is the beginning of science, … until you can measure something, your knowledge is meager and unsatisfactory” Lord Kelvin

Nominal/Conceptual Definition - define concept in terms of other concepts, links concepts without tying them to real world

Operational definition - equates definition with measurement, specify procedures/operations to generate the concept.

Levels of Measurement

Level Characteristic Example

Nominal Unorderedcategories

Race, gender

Ordinal Ordered categories Sm, med.lgHardness scale

Interval Consistent distancebetween categories

Temp in fahrenheitor Celsius

Ratio Natural zero Temp in Kelvin

Validity vs Reliability

Questionnaire Design

1. Preliminary Info

Information needed

Who are subjects

Method of communication

2. Question Content

3. Question Wording

4. Response Format

5. Question Sequencing/Layout

What Info?

Demographic, Socioeconomic, Physical

Cognitive - Knowledge & beliefs

Affective - attitudes, feelings, preferences

Behavioral - actions

Sampling

• Always define study population first

• Use element/unit/extent/time for complete definition

• element - who is interviewed• sampling unit - basic unit containing elements• extent - limit population (often spatially)• time - fix population in time

Types of Sampling Approaches

• Probability vs non-Probability

• Judgment, Simple Random, Systematic

• Stratify or Cluster (Area Sample)

• Time Sampling

Sample size

• Based on four factors• Cost/budget• Accuracy desired• variance in popln on variable of interest

• subgroup analysis planned

• Formula: n= Z2 σ2 / e 2

• n= sample size

• Z indicates confidence level (95% = 1.96)

∀ σ = standard deviation of variable in population

• e = sampling error

Sampling errors for binomial (95% confidence interval)

percent distribution in population

Samplesize

50/50 60/40 70/30 80/20 90/10

100 10.0% 9.8% 9.2% 8.0% 6.0%

200 7.1% 6.9% 6.5% 5.7% 4.2%

400 5.0% 4.9% 4.6% 4.0% 3.0%

1000 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.5% 1.9%

1500 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.1% 1.5%

2000 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.3%

Computing 95% confidence interval

• N= 100 , sample mean = 46%, use p= 50/50,

• sampling error from table = 10%

• 95% CI is 46% + or - 10% = (36, 56)

• N=1,000 sample mean =22%• sampling error from table = 2.5%• 95% CI is 22% + or - 2.5% = (19.5, 24.5)

How ....WhereGathered

Household On-Site Laboratory

PersonalInterview

Surveys Surveys,Field Expmts

Focus Groups

Telephone/Computer

Surveys ComputerInterviews

ComputerInterviews

Self-Admin.Quest.

Surveys,Field Expmts

Experiments

Observation& Traces

NA ObservableCharacteristics

ObservableCharacteristics

SecondarySources

NA InternalRecords

NA

Research Designs/Data Collection Approaches

Major Design Types

• Surveys

• Experiments

• Observation

• Secondary Data

• Qualitative Approaches– Focus Group– Case Study

General Guidelines on when to use different approaches

1. Describing a population - surveys

2. Describing users/visitors - on-site survey

3. Describing non-users, potential users or general population - household survey

4. Describing observable characteristics of visitors - on-site observation

5. Measuring impacts, cause-effect relationships - experiments

Guidelines (cont)

6. Anytime suitable secondary data exists - secondary data

7. Short, simple household studies - phone

8. Captive audience or very interested population - self-administered survey

9. Testing new ideas - experimentation or focus groups

10. In-depth study - in-depth personal interviews, focus groups, case studies

Primary or Secondary Data

• Secondary data are data that were collected for some purpose other than your study, e.g. government records, internal documents, previous surveys

• Choice between Primary /Secondary Data– Costs (time, money, personnel)– Relevance, accuracy, adequacy of data

Qualitative vs Quantitative

Purpose

Perspective

Procedures

Quantitative

Gen’l Laws

Test Hypotheses

Predict behavior

Outsider-Objective

Structured

formal measures

probability samples

statistical analysis

Qualitative

Unique/Individual case

Understanding

Meanings/Intentions

Insider-Subjective

Unstructured

open ended measures

judgement samples

interpretation of data

Qualitative vs Quantitative Approaches

QualitativeFocus GroupIn-Depth InterviewCase StudyParticipant observationSecondary data analysis

QuantitativeSurveysExperimentsStructured observationSecondary data analysis

Survey vs Experiment

Survey - measure things as they are, snapshot of population at one point in time, generally refers to questionnaires

(telephone, self-administered, personal interview)

Experiment - manipulate at least one variable (treatment) to evaluate response, to study cause-effect relationships

(field and lab experiments)

1. Define problem and study objectives

2. Identify information needs & study population(s)

3. Determine basic design/approach

- cross sectional vs longitudinal

- on-site vs household vs other

- self-admin. vs personal interview vs phone

- structured or unstructured questions

4. Questionnaire design

5. Choose sample (frame, size, sampling design)

6. Estimate time, costs, manpower needs, etc.

STEPS IN A SURVEY

7. Proposal & “Human subjects” review

8. Line up necessary resources

9. Pre-test instruments and field procedures

10. Data gathering and follow-up procedures

11. Coding, cleaning and data processing

12. Analysis: preliminary, then final.

13. Communication and presentation of results.

Survey Implementation

Characteristics of a true Experiment

1. Sample equivalent experimental and control groups

2. Isolate and control the treatment

3. Measure the effect

Pre-test/Post-test with Control

R MB1 X MA1 Experimental group

R MB2 MA2 Control group

R denotes random assignment to groups

X denotes the treatment

Measure of effect = ∆ Expmt gp - ∆ Control gp

= (MA1-MB1) - (MA2-MB2)

= with vs without

Threats to Internal validity

• * Pre-measurement (Testing) : effect of pre-measurement on dependent variable (post-test)

• * Selection: nonequivalent experimental & control groups, (statistical regression a special case)

• * History: impact of any other events between pre- and post measures on dependent variable

• * Interaction: alteration of the “effect” due to interaction between treatment & pre-test.

• Maturation: aging of subjects or measurement procedures

• Instrumentation: changes in instruments between pre and post.

• Mortality: loss of some subjects

Economic Evaluation Tools

• Benefit-Cost Analysis

• Cost Effectiveness Analysis

• Financial Analysis/Feasibility

• Fiscal Impact Analysis

• Economic Impact Analysis

• Social/Environmental Impact Analysis

Ethical Issues

• Human Subjects

• Honest and Open Reporting

• Client confidentiality

• No selling

Human Subjects

• Voluntary Participation

• Informed Consent

• Risk-benefit ratio

• Anonymity vs Confidentiality

Research Writing

• Like any writing,– Know audience– Know Story/Message/Subject– Follow Formats for Outlet

• Research Style– Objective, Factual– Impersonal– Dense, concise, logical

Sections

• Abstract – Executive Summary• Introd/Problem statement• Objectives• Lit Review/Background• Methods • Results• Discussion, Implications• References

Three Audiences/styles

• Researchers – research journal style– Technical, methods, statistical tests

• Managers – business style– Results and implications

• Public – newspaper style– Interesting, no jargon, highlights

Research vs Business Reports

• Written/Research– Problem– Objectives– Methods

– Results– Discussion

• Oral/Business– Objectives– Key Results &

Recommendations– Justify from study

– Brief methods– Discussion

Reminders

• Final Exam is Friday Dec 15, 7:45-9:45 am, this room

• Final Papers due by Wednesday Dec 13

• See YaYen Sun to finish lab work by end of week.