Fall 2011 EOC - Mark Goldstein's Presentation

Findings from the 2010 CensusPresented to the 2011 EconomicPresented to the 2011 Economic

Outlook Conference,

Towson University

November 9th, 2011

Secretary Richard E. Hall

Mark Goldstein

Maryland Department of Planning

Findings from the 2010 Census

• Statewide Findings– Total Population Change

– Population Change by Age

– Change by Race & Hispanic Origin

– Impact of Foreign Born

• Jurisdiction Findings– Total Population Changep g

– Population by Age

– Change by Race & Hispanic OriginChange by Race & Hispanic Origin


Maryland Population (and rank within U.S.)y p ( )

4,780,753

5,296,486

5,773,552

4,216,933

, ,

1980 1990 2000 2010(18th) (19th) (19th) (19th)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94-171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011

Total Population Change for Maryland, 1900 ‐ 2010

757,688

821,710

521,757563,778

515,733

294 576

477,066

107,302

154,315181,865 189,718

294,576

1900‐ 1910‐ 1920‐ 1930‐ 1940‐ 1950‐ 1960‐ 1970‐ 1980‐ 1990‐ 2000‐

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: U.S. Census BureauPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011

Percent Population Change for Maryland, 1900 ‐ 2010

28.6%

32.3%

26.5%

11.9% 12.5%11 6%

13.4%

9.0%

11.6%

7.5%

10.8%

9.0%

1900‐ 1910‐ 1920‐ 1930‐ 1940‐ 1950‐ 1960‐ 1970‐ 1980‐ 1990‐ 2000‐

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010


Percent Population Change for Maryland & U.S., 1900 ‐ 2010

28.6%

32.3%

26.5%

U.S.

11.9% 12.5%11 6%

13.4%

9.0%

11.6%

7.5%

10.8%

9.0%

1900‐ 1910‐ 1920‐ 1930‐ 1940‐ 1950‐ 1960‐ 1970‐ 1980‐ 1990‐ 2000‐


1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010










Change in Population by Age for Maryland, 2000 to 2010

225,392

147,172

23,661

93,090

65,072

12 03931,224

12,039

‐120,584

0 19 20 34 35 44 45 54 55 64 65 74 75 84 85

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Demographic ProfilesPrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, May 2011

0‐19 20‐34 35‐44 45‐54 55‐64 65‐74 75‐84 85+

Percent of Maryland’s Population Ages 65 and Over

14%

10.8%11.3%

12.3%

10%

12%

7.3% 7.6%

9.4%

6%

8%

4%

6%

0%

2%


1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010










Change in Population by Non‐Hispanic Race and Hispanics for Maryland, 2000 to 2010

242,716Hispanic

106,956

209,494

Asian Alone

Black or African American Alone

42,894Two or More Races

503

2,593

American Indian and Alaska Native Alone

Some Other Race Alone

499Nat Hawaiian & Oth Pacific Isl Alone

‐128,589White Alone

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and 2010 PL94‐171 releasePrepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, February 2011

Percent Change in Population by non‐Hispanic Race and Hispanics for Maryland, 2000 to 2010

51 7%

106.5%

Two or More Races

Hispanic

51.0%

51.7%

Asian Alone

Two or More Races

27.6%Some Other Race Alone

14.3%

26.1%

Black or African American Alone

Nat Hawaiian & Oth Pacific Isl Alone

3.8%American Indian and Alaska Native Alone

‐3.9%White Alone


Population Share by non‐Hispanic Race and Hispanicsfor Marylandfor Maryland

4 0% 1.6% 4.3% 0.5% 0.5%

2000 2010

4.0%

5.5%2.2%

8.2%

27.7%

54.7%29 0%62.1% 29.0%

White Alone Black or African American Alone

Asian Alone Two or More Races

White Alone Black or African American Alone

Asian Alone Two or More Races

Hispanic Other * Hispanic Other *


* Other includes American Indian, Native Hawaiian and other single race

2010 Minority Population Share

65.2%

77.3%

District of Columbia

Hawaii

59.5%

59.9%

New Mexico

California

45.9%

54.7%

Nevada

Texas

44 1%

45.3%

45.9%

Georgia

Maryland

42 1%

42.2%

44.1%

Fl id

Arizona

Georgia


42.1%Florida

Percent of Maryland’s 2010 Population by Age Whi h i Mi it *Which is Minority *

70%

50%

60%

Age 38

30%

40%

20%

0%

10%

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 1001 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91 94 97 100

•Minority is defined as everyone other than non-Hispanic white alone.Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, from Census 2010 (SF1), August 2010

Percent of Non‐Hispanic White and Minority Births in Marylandp y y

60%

54.7%

55.2%

50%

55%

45.6%

45.0%

45%

50%

35%

40%

Non‐Hispanic White Minority

30%2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene

Net Natural Increase (births minus deaths) in Maryland( ) y

35,000

24,950

27,36428,954 28,596

27,596 26,852

25,000

30,000

15,000

20,000

6,152 6,5755,506 4,823

3,640 3,6755,000

10,000

0Non-Hispanic White Minority

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Maryland Department of Planning from Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene data

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Ratio of Net Natural Increase: Minority to Non‐Hispanic Whitey p

7.67.3

8.0

5.3

5.96.0

7.0

4.1 4.2

5.3

4.0

5.0

2.0

3.0

0.0

1.0

Source: Maryland Department of Health and Mental Hygiene

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010










Change in Foreign Born in Maryland by Decade

285,380

204,821

117,913

71,236

7,9 3

30,167

Source: Decennial Census, 1960 – 2000 and American Community Survey (2010)

1960‐1970 1970‐1980 1980‐1990 1990‐2000 2000‐2010

Foreign Born as a Percent of the Maryland’s Total Population

13.9%

9.8%

4.6%

6.6%

3.0% 3.2%

Source: Decennial Census, 1960 – 2000 and American Community Survey (2010)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Region of Origin of Foreign Born who Entered Maryland:

Before 1990 2000 to 20102.0% 0.4% 0.9% 0.2%

34 2%

15.5%

7.7%

34.2%

10.6%

41.4%18.8%

37.2%31.1%

Latin America Asia

Africa Europe

Latin America Asia

Africa Europe

Source: 2010 American Community Survey

Northern America Oceania Northern America Oceania

Net Domestic Migration & Foreign Immigration for Maryland *

285,380

204,821

‐22,722

‐141,847

1990‐2000 2000‐2010

Net Domestic migration Foreign immigration

* Domestic migration for 1990-2000 and 2000 to 2010 periods are calculated as residuals, with the use of the change in foreign born.Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, October 2011

Net Domestic migration Foreign immigration

Increase in Foreign Born as a Percent of Total Population Gain in MarylandPopulation Gain in Maryland

58.3%

39.7%

Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, October 2011 using data from Census 1990, 2000 and 2010 ACS

1990‐2000 2000‐2010










Population Change for Maryland’s Jurisdictions,2000 to 2010

48,000

50,737

61,905

98,436

d

Anne Arundel

Baltimore Co.

Prince George's

Montgomery

Top four = 54% of State total, down from approx

18 940

26,005

26,236

38,108

39,243

St. Mary's

Charles

Harford

Frederick

Howard 60% in 1980s and 1990s and 85% in the 1950s and 1960s

14,174

15,157

15,507

16,237

18,940

Calvert

Cecil

Washington

Carroll

St. Mary s

3 294

3,970

4,911

7,235

14,089

C li

Talbot

Worcester

Queen Anne's

Wicomico

251

1,000

1,723

1,944

3,294

Garrett

Kent

Somerset

Dorchester

Caroline

‐30,193

157

251

Baltimore City

Allegany

Garrett


Population Change for Baltimore City

175,341

49 52871,048

54 226

90,608

49,528 54,226

‐10,684

‐33,237‐50,727

‐84 860

‐30,193

‐119,046

‐84,860

1900‐ 1910‐ 1920‐ 1930‐ 1940‐ 1950‐ 1960‐ 1970‐ 1980‐ 1990‐ 2000‐

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning

Percent Population Change for Maryland’s Jurisdictions,2000 to 2010

19.0%

19.5%

21.6%

22.0%

Calvert

Frederick

Charles

St. Mary's

12 0%

15.8%

16.6%

17.6%

17.8%

Harford

Howard

Wicomico

Cecil

Queen Anne's

11.1%

11.3%

11.7%

11.8%

12.0%

Caroline

Montgomery

Talbot

Washington

Harford

7.7%

9.8%

10.6%

10.8%

Prince George's

Anne Arundel

Worcester

Carroll

0 8%

5.2%

6.3%

6.7%

7.0%

Garrett

Kent

Dorchester

Baltimore Co.

Somerset

‐4.6%

0.2%

0.8%

Baltimore City

Allegany

Garrett











2010 Percent of Population Ages 65 and Overfor Maryland’s Jurisdictions

17.7%17.8%

21.8%23.2%23.7%

Dorchester

Allegany

Kent

Worcester

Talbot

14.3%14.6%14.9%

17.4%17.7%

Washington

Baltimore Co

Queen Anne's

Garrett

12.5%13.0%13.0%13.3%13.8%

Harford

Wicomico

Carroll

Caroline

Somerset

11.7%11.8%12.3%12.3%

l i i

Cecil

Anne Arundel

Maryland

Montgomery

10.1%10.3%

10.9%11.1%

11.7%

Howard

St. Mary's

Calvert

Frederick

Baltimore City


9.4%9.5%

Prince George's

Charles










Percentage Point Increase in Minority Share, 2000 to 2010

10.210.8

13.418.9

Frederick

Baltimore County

Howard

Charles

5.86.6

7.39.4

10.2

Washington

Harford

Anne Arundel

Prince George's

Montgomery

4.04.4

4.95.2

5.8

St. Mary's

Allegany

Wicomico

Cecil

Washington

2.72.93.43.73.9

Dorchester

Baltimore City

Calvert

Somerset

Carroll

1.11.2

2.32.52.7

Queen Anne's

Garrett

Talbot

Caroline

0.10.3

Worcester

Kent











Change in Foreign Born 2000 to 2010

33,997

61,403

81,502

Baltimore

Prince George's

Montgomery

14,937

21,370

26,953

Frederick

Anne Arundel

Howard

5,706

6,163

14,352

Charles

Harford

Baltimore City

2,508

2,961

4,382

Calvert

Wicomico

Washington

1,477

1,603

1,968

Carroll

Cecil

St. Mary's

Source: Census 2000 and the 2010 American Community SurveyPrepared by, the Maryland Department of Planning, October 2011

9Allegany

Gains in Foreign Born Population as a Percent of Total Population Growth, 2000 to 2010

79.2%

96.3%

Montgomery

Prince George's

43.1%

66.1%

66.5%

Anne Arundel

Baltimore

Howard

23.2%

28.0%

38.5%

Harford

Washington

Frederick

17.4%

20.9%

21.5%

Calvert

Wicomico

Charles

9.9%

10.1%

10.5%

Allegany

St. Mary's

Cecil

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 and ACS 2010Prepared by the Maryland Department of Planning, October 2011

9.0%Carroll

Implications

• Increasing diversity: Given the age structure of minorities and non‐Hispanic whites, growthof minorities and non Hispanic whites, growth in the labor force in the coming decades will be dominated by minoritiesbe dominated by minorities

Th ill b d t th t• There will be a need to ensure that educational and job opportunities are

ibl t ll if M l d i t ff ti laccessible to all if Maryland is to effectively compete in the world economy

Implicationsp

• Aging: An older population will need different housing options than are typically provided inhousing options than are typically provided in today’s market. Also, a variety of programs will need to be ramped up that will allowwill need to be ramped up that will allow seniors to age in place.

Thank YouThank You

[email protected]

www.planning.maryland.gov/msdc/

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Fall 2011 EOC - Mark Goldstein's Presentation