Engineering Simulation: Where we are and how we got here

Dr. Dennis Nagy, BeyondCAE

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

• * “Engineering Simulations, Part 2: Where Are We Going?”

will be webcast on Tuesday, February 25th, at the same time.

• Slides and recorded versions of both webcasts will be available at

www.TheUberCloud.com

http://www.beyondcae.com/

http://www.beyondcae.com/

http://www.theubercloud.com/

Who Am I? (my 1 minute of shameless self-promotion )

A broad expert in engineering simulation (CAE), over 42 years of experience: from R&D, university teaching, through commercial software development, support, sales and marketing management, to executive management.

• Former Sr. VP of worldwide Sales at MSC.Software • CEO of Engineous (now part of DS/SIMULIA) • VP of Marketing and Business Development at CD-adapco • VP of Marketing and Asia-Pacific at Fluent (now part of ANSYS) • VP of International Business, Blue Ridge Numerics (now part of Autodesk)

Currently Principal at BeyondCAE, a global strategy and business development consulting activity located in Chapel Hill, NC, USA.

Mentor, TheUberCloud HPC Experiment

Member of the NAFEMS Americas Steering Committee

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Mechanical Engineering Simulation (MCAE) is…

The use of applied physics, numerical methods, algorithms, and computers to model and study the functional behavior of multiple manufactured instances of proposed physical product/process designs.

MCAE, Functional Virtual Prototyping, Digital Prototyping, and Simulation & Analysis (S&A) are all the same thing for purposes of this presentation.

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MCAE Topics/Comments

Historical perspective

Technology Business

Vendor consolidation and emergence

Current Structure of the MCAE vendor industry

Major players, relationships

Technology issues

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Research Software

Development Applications Use for Product

and Process

Improvement Mathematics

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Infrastru

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What is the Engineering Simulation Food Chain?

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“Aha!” (Insight)

Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy

“The purpose of computing is insight, not numbers.”

The MCAE Industry: It Depends on Your Perspectives

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Veteran s Recent

participants

13 February 2014 Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy

Research Software

Development Applications Use for Product

and Process

Improvement Mathematics

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a

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Infra

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The Roles of Each Entity in The Engineering Simulation Food Chain

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“Aha!” (Insight)

Copyright © 2014 by Dennis A. Nagy

5-Cent Tour of Relevant MCAE History - 1

1950’s-mid-60s: basic R&D work and first very simple software programs (major aerospace, civil frame/truss structures) Boeing, MIT, NASA, ESA,…

Mid-1960’s-70s: basic methods for MCAD (D=Drafting) and early commerical MCAE software; emergence of sufficient compute power MSC, SDRC (now part of Siemens), ANSYS, ABAQUS (now

part of Dassault Systemes), MARC (now part of MSC), MathWorks all founded

1980s: MCAD Solid modeling (D=Design) and more user-friendly MCAE; accessibility of computer power (workstations); emergence of PDM, PIM (recognition of mushrooming data) LMS (now part of Siemens PLM), RASNA (now part of PTC)

founded


5-Cent Tour of Relevant MCAE History - 2

1990s: linking of MCAD, MCAE in wider production use; variational modeling, affordability of much greater computer and communications power (PC client/server networks)

Late 1990s: the Internet/Web—MCAE information but little s/w

2000s: discovering and overcoming new challenges (interoperability, standards, collaboration,…), emergence of MCAE as a significant player/component of PLM (25%+)

2010s: SDM, SPM, optimization, democratization, SaaS, The Cloud, multiphysics, multifidelity, multiscale (more in Part 2 of this Series)


MCAE Advancement by Industry Started in Aerospace (1950s-60s)

Advanced more quickly in Automotive (1970s-80s)

Turbomachinery (an industry or an application?) (1980s-90s)

Electronics: cooling, packaging (1990s-2000s)

SMB manufacturing, consumer products (2000s)

Chemical Processing (overlap w/Energy) 1990s-2000s

Oil & Gas (2000s)


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Typical Historical Obstacles/Steps to Further Business Impact of MCAE

1. “Can we trust the results?” Accuracy of methods vs. traditional physical prototype testing (math,

physics, algorithms)

2. “Can we get the results in time to impact design decisions?”

Digital processing and communications speed:

3. “Is it easy enough to use for the average mainstream product development engineer?”

Graphics speed, power, and ease of use (human interface)

4. “How much time is lost in between the use of individual MCAE tools?”

Incompatibility of tools and data; interoperability and integration

5. “How do we overcome sequential ‘silos’ preventing multidisciplinary upfront MCAE?” Business processes in product development

6. “How do we overcome fear of change, risk aversion?” Company culture

7. “What’s the business payback?” Executive vision and top-level buy-in: enthusiasm for the strategic value of MCAE

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Progress Through the 7 Steps Varies by industry (aero, auto, turbo, energy, consumer

products), company size/role (SMB, OEMs vs. suppliers).

Varies by company within same industry segment: Leaders vs. laggards (recent Aberdeen Group studies)

Does not vary significantly by industrialized (“First World”) geography: Western Europe, North America, and Japan/Korea (with slight lag back in the 1970s/80s) are all similarly advanced/mature today in their effective use of MCAE …and the BRICs are catching up fast


The MCAE Industry: Complex , Diversified, Not Yet Well-Tracked

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Major Industries and Vendors

Emerging

Vendors

and

Users

At least US$2.6B+ global annual revenue 15%+ growth rate

80+ vendors (from US$800M+ down to <US$1M) Embedded in PLM

vendors Stand-alone Serving Industries

and customers from US$200B+ down to <US$1M


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Category Consolidation (from distinct markets to segments of larger markets, as tracked/followed by industry analysts)


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The Enterprise Software/Solutions “Food Chain”

Apple

Synopsys DS PTC Siemens-PLM Autodesk Agile Eigner

Oracle SAP HP IBM Google PeopleSoft

MSC ANSYS LMS DS/Simulia ESI Altair CD-

adapco …

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MCAE vendors

Remnants of the “Cottage Industry”

Microsoft


MCAE Consolidation Example


Siemens PLM LMS SAMTECH

2011 2013

Further MCAE Consolidation 2003-2013: Acquisitions

ANSYS: Fluent 2006, ANSOFT (electromagnetics) 2008, Apache (ECAE) 2011, Esterel (system modeling/simulation) 2012

Altair: AcuSim 2010

Autodesk: ALGOR 2007, PlassoTech 2007, Moldflow 2008, Blue Ridge Numerics 2011

Dassault Systemes: Abaqus SIMULIA 2004, Engineous (optimization) 2008, FE-Design (optimization) 2012

LMS: Amesim (system modeling/simulation) 2004

ESI: CFDRC (CFD software only), Radioss, EASi (Crash environment), CyDesign

Cybernet Systems: Noesis (from LMS)

Siemens: UGS Siemens PLM Software 2007, Vistagy 2011 (FibreSim), LMS 2013

MSC: acoustics, ExStream (composites)

CD-adapco: Red Cedar (HEEDS optimization) 2013


Company CAE revenue ranking*

Recent Revenue Growth

Founder Still In Charge

CAE Imbedded in PLM company

CAE Stand-Alone

Focused Solution Set

Fragmented Solution Sets

CAE Market Position Movement

Perceived CAE “Thought Leadership” Ranking

ANSYS** 10.5% X X 1

DS/Simulia*** x x X 3

MSC X X 4

SPLM*** w/o LMS acquisition x x x X 5

Altair X X X x 2

ESI** 12.4% X X X 5

CD-adapco X X X 7

Autodesk** (acquisitions) x x X 8

20-30% 10-20% 0-10% -0 to -10%

Summary of Top 8 MCAE Vendors

*Based on revenue **Public ***Embedded in larger public company

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PDF copies of these slides (with active hyperlinks) available from TheUberCloud: www.TheUberCloud.com or from me at:

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[email protected]


http://www.theubercloud.com/

mailto:[email protected]