"Embedded Vision in Augmented Reality: Trends and Opportunities," a Presentation from Jon Peddie Research

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AUGMENTED REALITY

Trends and Opportunities

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Jon Peddie Research JPR Focuses on visualization, graphics, and forms of reality.

We provide consulting and market research, are advisors to industry

leaders and investors.

We offer bi-weekly report, various digital technology market studies.

We also do product testing and benchmarking.

And conduct and participate at Conferences.

The Business of Multimedia and Visual Magic

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What’s deployed today, what’s

going to be deployed in the

next few years?

Deployment

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Taxonomy of AR

Wearable devices

Helmets

Augmented Reality systems

Non-wearable devices

Mobile devices(Smartphone, tablet)

Head-updisplays

Headsets

Consumer Commercial

Indoors

outdoors

Factory installed

Retro-fit

Consumer Commercial

Indoors

outdoors

Indoors

outdoors

Add-on Integrated

Consumer Commercial

Indoors

outdoors

Indoors

outdoorsoutdoors

Stationary devices(Projectors,TV, PC, etc.)

Contacts

You can get it a lot of ways,

and size does fit all

Deployment

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Suppliers by Segment

• Contact lens—7 suppliers or developers

• Helmet—7+ suppliers

• HUD—10+ suppliers

• Smart-glasses • Integrated

• Commercial—26 suppliers

• Consumer—17 suppliers

• Add-on—14 suppliers

• Projectors (other than HUD) 3

• Specialized and other—6+ developers or suppliers

Does the word CRAZY come to mind?

Deployment

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Examples

Helmet Smart glasses – integrated-

Commercial/Industrial Smart glasses – integrated-

Consummer Smart glasses –

add-on HUD Projection Contact lens

Deployment

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Announced Helmet

Smart glasses – integrated-



add-on HUD Projection Contact lens BAE systems

Striker APX Labs Microsoft

Hololens Brilliant Service Beijing Palo Alto

Tech Carrobot CastAR EPGL

BMW Atheer Mirage

Innovations Dlodlo Chipsip Garmin Hololamp Ghent

University

Cinoptics Brother

Industries Optinvent GlassUp Coretronic Hudway Realview Google

C-Thru Cannon Osterhout Design

Group Intel Composyt Light Labs Eurogiciel Iris Sensics Gunnar

Daqri Caputer Seer Oxsight Intel Recon Garmin Varia Vision Kshioe Innovega

Elbit Systems Coretronic Penny Kopin Solos Gold Tek Foxconn Mygoflight Ocumetics

Intelligent

Cranium Epson PhaseSpace Laforge Lenovo Navdy Samsung

Eveno Eyes On

(Epson) Shenzhen Topsky

Digital LusoVU eyespeak Lumus Pioneer Sony

Fujitsu Sony Luxottica Oakley Mad Gaze Springteq

Google Glass Sulon Cortex Magic Leap Occipital WayRay

IMMY Trivisio Mirama Brilliant Service Orcam

Laster

Technologies Vrvana MRK Imagine Mobile Augmented Seebright

Meta Vuzix Murata Senth IN1

NVIS QD Laser Telepathy

RideOn Vufine

Six-15 Westunits

Solos

Zeiss

Deployment

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Shipping Helmet








BMW Atheer Mirage


University

Cinoptics Brother






Intelligent


Eveno Eyes On






Laster




RideOn Vufine

Six-15 Westunits

Solos

Zeiss

Deployment

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Shipping later this year . . . Helmet








BMW Atheer Mirage


University

Cinoptics Brother






Intelligent


Eveno Eyes On






Laster




RideOn Vufine

Six-15 Westunits

Solos

Zeiss

Deployment

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Companies VC find interesting

Deployment

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What’s the size of the market

today and in the next few

years?

Market

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Market Forecast Hardware M units 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

HMD Units Sold (IHS) 0.05 0.13 0.30 2.30 6.60 0 0 0

HMD Unit Sold (Yano

Research) 0.15 0.45 1.60 7.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0

Google Glass Units Sold

(BI Insider) 0 0 0.83 2.47 3.74 10.62 21.15 0

Smart Glasses Sold (Berg

Research) 0 0.10 0 0 7.68 0.00 0.00 0

AR Wearable Devices

Sold (Markets &

Markets) 0.92 12.20 16.10 21.20 27.90 36.80 48.50 0

HMD Units Sold

(Gartner) 0 0 0 0 0 0 25.00 0

JPR (Grey Hair

Perspective) 0.35 0.80 1.20 1.80 2.40 3.00 4.50 7.50

Pick the forecast you like best – alternative facts

Market

In 2019 ABI Research believes AR will grow to reach 53% of a $57 billion market

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Augmented Reality markets $90 billion in 2020

AR Hardware (tMkt)

aCommerce (tMkt)

AR Data

AR Voice

AR Film/TV (tMkt)

Enterprise AR

AR adspend

AR Consumer

AR Games (tMkt) AR Parks

Source: Digi-Capital, 2016

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Start 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

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Companies

Project

Glass lanuched

Esquire Magazine

features augmented reality

Hololens

Pokemon Go

Too many suppliers chasing too few customers - no market can sustain this many companies

Market

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Consumers vs. Industrial/Military/Scientific

So far the AR market has no consumer wearable segment – first products in late 2017 – 2018.

HUDs are an exception and non-wearable.

For consumers to accept AR, it has to be inconspicuous, and non-geeky – nothing more than a pair of sun or prescription glasses. Helmets are the exception.

Market

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1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045

Siz

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Augmented Reality Displays

Smart-glasses

Contact-lens

AR usage (M)

M users

Market

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Importance of vision to the

success of AR

Vision

AR is much more complicated than VR because it merges the real world - Jon Peddie 2014

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Seeing AR Vision

Video

Combiner

Computer generated

image

Light-

blocking

display

CCamera

Real

world

view

Real

world

view

Optical see-through Video see-through

Computer generated

image

Transparent

optical

combiner

CCamera

Positioning and

Recording system

Cloud

Projector

This could be

a smartphone

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Full Scale AR Requires Vision Capture Vision

Type/Feature Headphone Mic Display Camera

Audio Yes Maybe No No

Data Maybe Maybe Yes Maybe

Data & Location (&

HUD) Yes Yes Yes Probably

Environmentally aware optical see

thru Yes Yes Yes Yes

Video see thru Yes Yes Yes Yes

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Camera Contributions to AR

Pose – where exactly is the camera looking

Capture – personal black box

Accurate registration of Pokemon, er, data to real world

Augmentation of rate of change and attitude data

SLAM needs lots of accurate markerless data points – from a camera (preferably three cameras)

Vision

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Cameras

Where to mount, and power all those AR cameras

• 3D sensing (structured light and/or TOF)

• IR

• Rear view

• Wide FOV if video see-through

And remember, one size does not fit all - AR is for everyone, and most are different

Vision

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Important challenges and trends

that will play a major role in

determining the rate of growth of

the market

Challenges

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Dangers of AR

• 60% think smartphones make them safer, and take more risks because they rely on their phone to keep them safe.

• Over 55% advanced internet users would like to use AR glasses to light up dark surroundings in order to highlight potentially dangerous objects, and/or people approaching.

• Change how the environment looks (no trash, graffiti, signs)

Challenges

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Seeing things that aren’t there Challenges

Risk of information overload – learning how to mitigate

What the terminator saw What you might see

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Potential problems

• Biggest problem now involves coming up with designs that are not conspicuous (why Google Glass failed). • AR has a foundation in science, but not in commerce (but coming rapidly).

Many “experts” and reporters look at something from ODG or Atheer – and say, “look, consumer AR” – but nobody would wear something like that going to lunch with a friend.

• What are the biggest problems does AR solve? • Ignorance (when you can’t recall a name or fact without a computer)

• Stupidity – I lost my way, where am I?

• Personal “Black Box” – you could record every living moment of your life. Everything you’re looking at – like being mugged, harassed by a cop, being hit by another car, etc. You become The “Fair Witness, described by Robert A. Heinlein, “In Stranger in a Strange Land.”

Challenges

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Benefits of AR

Instant expertise. Could we download whatever skills we wanted, needed?

Such capability, assuming one was willing to do the actual work, could eliminate the mismatch between demand for, and availability of, specialized skilled personal.

It could also eliminate the time to go to (or have come to you) needed help. A new expression of instant gratification.

Challenges

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The AR market is growing in industry and scientific, and will be huge in consumer

However, AR is very difficult technically, and challenging esthetically for the commercial market

Image sensors, ISPs, VPUs, are critical to the success of AR, have to be very high resolution, and

very fast, and not expensive or use much power - no problem, right.

Two promo items (now’s the time to head to the rest room)

• Buy my book, Augmented Reality: Where We All Will Live

(http://www.springer.com/gb/book/9783319545011)

• Buy our report: Visual Processing Unit Report - samples on the table

• Other resources: http://www.augmentedreality.org/ , http://www.arglassesguide.com/

Summary

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[email protected]

Chasing pixels – finding Visual Magic

Technology

"Embedded Vision in Augmented Reality: Trends and Opportunities," a Presentation from Jon Peddie Research