Economic indicators november 2013

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Economic Indicators

Last update 15.11.2013

| Economic Indicators | 2

Economic Outlook Monthly Overview – October 2013

Europe:

• Consensus November GDP forecast for WE remained on 0,0% for 2013 and on 1,3% for 2014.

• The EU industrial confidence improved again compared to last month while the consumer

confidence indicator remained stable on the same level as in September.

• The IFO Business Climate index for Germany fell slightly for the first time after five increases.

Both, the business expectations and the current business situation were assessed slightly less

favorably than in the previous month. The German economy has not yet moved fully into gear.

• The ECB rather surprisingly cut the target interest rate by 0,25%points on November 13 to the

historically low level of 0,25%. Fears over a deflationary environment along with recent gains in

the Euro, threatening the export-led recovery prompted ECB to act.

US:

• Consensus November GDP forecast for the US improved from 1,6% to 1,7% for 2013 and

remained on 2,6% for 2014.

• US growth accelerated in Q3 to 2,8% q-o-q and this month’s upbeat employment report

suggests that the government shutdown may not have hurt activity as badly as previously

feared.

Japan:

• The November GDP growth forecast for Japan again remained stable on 1,9% for 2013 and

slightly came down from 1,7% to 1,6% for 2014.

• Muted wage growth remains a burden to the outlook while many other of the country’s

parameters have improved during the last months.

3 | Economic Indicators |

Eurostat Data


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27

Source: Eurostat Sep 13

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

'07

Q1

'08

Q1

'09

Q1

'10

Q1

'11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter vs. same quarter of last year


Economic Indicators – GDP EU 27

Source: Eurostat Sep 13

-2,5

-2

-1,5

-1

-0,5

0

0,5

1

'07Q

1

'08 Q

1

'09 Q

1

'10 Q

1

'11 Q

1

12

Q1

13

Q1

%

GDP for the EU 27 countries at constant prices quarter on quarter


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Consumer Price Index

Source: Eurostat Nov 13

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

4,5

08

/1

09

/1

10

/1

11

/1

12

/1

13

/1

0,9

%

The harmonized index of consumer prices is the result of the collaboration

between Eurostat and National Statistical Institutes of the Member States.


Economic Indicators – ECB interest rate

Source: ECB, FED Nov 13

Oct 13; 0,7

Nov.13; 0,25

Nov.13; 0,25-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

Jan

08

Ju

ly 0

8

Jan

09

Ju

l.09

Jan

10

Ju

l.10

Jan

11

Ju

ly 1

1

Jan

12

Ju

l.12

Jan

13

Ju

l.13

Jan

14

Ju

l.14

Jan

15

%

ECB short-term rate

Eurozone inflation

FED rate


Economic Indicators –EU 27 Unemployment Rate


11

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

%

Unemployment rate for EU 27 countries


Economic Indicators – Industrial Confidence Ind EU


-40

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10Jan

06

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

Industrial confidence within EU 27 improved again in October.

The Industrial Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the

questions on production expectations, order books and stocks.


Economic Indicators – Consumer Confidence Ind EU


Consumer Confidence within EU 27 in October did not change from September.

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

Ja

n 0

6

Jan

07

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The Consumer Confidence Indicator is the arithmetic average of the answers to the questions

on the financial situation of households and general economic situation (past and future)

together with that on the advisability of making major purchases.


Economic Indicators – Capacity Utilization

in Manufacturing Industry in % - EU 27


60

65

70

75

80

85

04

Q1

05

Q1

06

Q1

07

Q1

08

Q1

09

Q1

10

Q1

11

Q1

12

Q1

13

Q1

79,5

%

The capacity utilization in manufacturing industry gives the level of capacity utilization

in percent, as assessed by managers in manufacturing industry.


Ifo Data


Economic Indicators – IFO World Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 13

The Ifo World Economic climate brightens in Q4 2013

This indicator is being updated on a quarterly basis.


Economic Indicators – IFO European Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 13

The economic climate for Europe brightens significantly in Q4 2013.



Economic Indicators – IFO NA Economic Climate

Source: IFO Nov 13



Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Euro Area

Source: IFO Oct 13


Economic Indicators – GDP Forecast Germany

Source: IFO Oct 13


Economic Indicators – Exchange rate $ vs €

Source: IFO Nov 13


Economic Indicators –

Ifo business situation and 6 month expectations

Source: IFO Nov 13

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Business situation 6 months expectations

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business situation index shows the current evaluation of the

economic situation, while the 6 month expectations index shows the expectations of the companies for the next

6 months. Over 7000 companies are being interviewed.

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell slightly for the first time after 5 increases.

Firms assessed their business outlook slightly less optimistically than in the last month.

Assessments of the current business situation were somewhat less positive, but remain above

average. The German economy has not yet moved fully into gear.


Economic Indicators – IFO Assessment of Current

Business Situation

Source: IFO Nov 13

The Ifo Business Climate Index for Germany fell slightly for the first time after 5 increases.

Firms assessed their business outlook slightly less optimistically than in the last month.

Assessments of the current business situation were somewhat less positive, but remain above

average. The German economy has not yet moved fully into gear.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

Source: IFO Nov 13, bundesverband druck und medien

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Jan

08

Jan

09

Jan

10

Jan

11

Jan

12

Jan

13

Jan

14

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

The business climate within the printing industry decreased to -3 in October.


Economic Indicators – IFO business climate index

printing industry

The IFO-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung business climate index for the printing industry is

based on a monthly representative questionnaire to 300 German printers.

Business Development at German Printers – October 2013:

The assessment of the current business situation in the printing

industry improved compared to the last month to now 7%, which is

also 5% points above the same month of last year.

The business climate – an indicator for the development in

the next quarter – came down from last month to now -3%, thus also

remaining below the value of October last year.

The business expectations for the coming 6 months worsened to -13%.

In October 2012 the value was slightly better at -9%.

Source: IFO Nov 13, bundesverband druck und medien


Zenith Data


Advertising Growth – Zenith 9/13 Press release

Source: ZenithOptimedia 9/13










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Economic indicators november 2013