Douglas Gollin, ISPC Council Member "Farm Size, Urbanization and the Links to Agriculture, Nutrition and Health: economic perspectives"

Farm Size, Urbanization

and the Links from Agriculture to Nutrition and Health:

Economic Perspectives

Douglas GollinOxford University

Chair, CGIAR Standing Panel on Impact Assessment

CGIAR Science Forum 2013Bonn, September 23-25

D. Gollin (Oxford) Economic Perspectives CGIAR Science Forum 1 / 23

Farm Size, Urbanization, Nutrition, and Health


Outline

1 Background and Motivation

2 Trends and Implications

3 Health and Nutrition Consequences

4 The Role of Agricultural Research?


1. Background


An Economist's Perspective: Evolution of Marketing

Systems

The changes in farm size and urbanization that the study foresees willimply major changes in food markets.

This presentation focuses on these changes in the marketing systemand some potential impacts on health and nutrition:

I Emphasizes channels of food quality and food safety.I Touches on issues of dietary-related disease, including metablic

syndromes.

Challenges for agricultural science (and the CGIAR):

I Potential shifts in research emphasis


Background: Conclusions of the Study

In sub-Saharan Africa, rural populations will continue to grow,although urban populations will grow more in both absolute andrelative terms.

Diets will shift towards meat and higher value foods, especially inurban areas � but demand for starch staples will continue to grow inthe poorest countries.

Dynamic areas and hinterlands may experience diverging patterns ofgrowth and consumption.


Background: Agriculture and Nutrition

Recent research challenges much of what we used to think about thelinks between agriculture and nutrition:

I In the short run, the relationship between household food baskets andnutrition outcomes is a weak one.

I The link between household income and nutrition outcomes is alsorelatively weak.

I Nutrition outcomes are not closely related to what (how much)households produce or even what (how much) they consume.

Much more research needed to understand these linkages; e.g., thisScience Forum!

Long-run relationships are almost certaintly di�erent; in the long runand at a global scale, food production must be related to humannutrition outcomes.

Where does this leave agricultural research?

What role for the CGIAR?


2. Trends and Implications


Rural Food Systems

Most rural people in sub-Saharan Africa will remain smallholders, andmost farms will remain smallholder farms.

Non-farm employment opportunities will emerge, but theseopportunities are limited and do not exist everywhere.

Many rural households will remain largely self-su�cient in foodproduction.

I Sell small quantities of surplus and/or cash crops.I Purchase foods (e.g., vegetable oil) that they cannot readily produce.

With limited scope for expanding area under cultivation, we will see afootrace between shrinking farm size and rising productivity.

Welfare of the rural poor will depend on this outcome.


Urban Food Systems

Increasing urban populations and rising incomes will lead to higherdemand for starch staples as well as growing demand for high valuefoods.

Massive increases in total demand for agricultural production.

Changes in food marketing, as well.

Demand for food away from home; demand for processed food;demand for convenience food.


How Will Urban Food Demand Be Met?

Increasing role for imports of food into many cities.

Opportunities for commercial farming in well-connected urbanperipheries.

Growing consolidation and formalization of supply chains, including:

I The growth of supermarkets.I The growth of markets for branded consumer products (especially with

processed foods).I The increasing reach of contract farming and commercial production

aimed for urban markets.


Parenthesis: Large Farms

Sometimes misconstrued as a debate over the relative merits of familyfarms and �investor-owned� farms.

I Not much to debate: family farms almost always win out, with theexception of a few crops and activities...

I But family farms can come in many sizes!I Large commercially oriented family farms, using mechanization, are the

norm in much of the world.I Not obvious why there would not be a niche for these farms in Africa

as well as the rest of the world.

Expansion of some farms implies shrinking farm size for others.

Potential emergence of a dualism in African farm size.


Implications for Urban Food Supply

Increasing importance of commercial channels:

I Very large family farms selling directly to supermarkets.I Large farms selling to large-scale traders.I Increasing role for food processors:

F Local production of processed convenience foods, fast foods.F Growth in local chains and brands.


Shifting Social Norms

Integrity of existing food supply chains at present relies on socialproximity and social relationships to guarantee quality.

I People may buy from (and sell to) individuals with whom they sharesome social capital.

I Trust and repeated games provide some protection.I Goods are also sold in minimally processed form; with processing taking

place in the home, less risk.

Lengthening supply chains and formalization of processing alters therelationship between people and their food.


3. Health and Nutrition Consequences


Potential Bene�ts for Health and Nutrition

Consolidation of urban food supplies creates a number of possibleopportunities to improve health and nutrition.

I Supplementation and forti�cation of foods becomes far easier.I Regulation and control of food supply becomes more feasible (e.g.,

pasteurization, management of abbatoires).


Potential Dangers for Health and Nutrition

Increased potential for food safety and health hazards to spread on farwider scale than previous; e.g.,

I a breakdown in cold chain in a poultry production plantI contamination of water supplies from concentrated animal feeding

operationsI large quantities of chemically contaminated foods reaching market

Problems that might at present be isolated and sporadic have thepotential to emerge at far wider scale.

Potential for �disasters�.


Adulteration of Food Supplies

Not all potential food safety concerns are the result of accidents.

Incentives for adulteration of food supply; e.g., dilution of milk.

Incentives for corrupt use of contaminated products.

Pirating of brands and sale of knock-o�s.


Regulatory and Political Capacity

Limited regulatory capacity in many countries to inspect or managefood supplies.

I Lack of trained personnel and equipment.I Not necessarily a priority for governments.

Limited political capacity to enforce regulations on powerfulcommercial interests.

I Examples of rich countries do not inspire con�dence.


4. The Role of Agricultural Research


A Shift in the Research Agenda

The CGIAR's Strategy and Results Framework lists four system-levelobjectives, of which one is �improving nutrition and health.�

If we take this mandate seriously, and if we are accept the �ndings ofrecent research, we need to look seriously about the mapping fromthis SLO into research priorities.

I Perhaps we are over-investing in research aimed at production andnutritional enhancement.

I Perhaps we are under-investing in research aimed at other food-relatedhealth issues.

I Perhaps not... Or perhaps the CGIAR has no comparative advantage inthese other areas.

I But there are emerging issues related to urban food supply andagricultural commercialization, and good science is needed.


What Role for Science?

What role for the CGIAR and/or international scienti�c community?

I Rapid and context-appropriate tests for various food safety issues:

F bacterial and chemical contamination, including tampering and

adulteration

I Context-appropriate measures to deal with livestock waste.I Management of animal agriculture to reduce risks of zoonoses.I Advice in designing regulatory regimes, sampling frameworks, etc.

Other??


Conclusions

If the CGIAR seeks to apply agricultural science to improve health andnutrition of poor people in developing countries, production is only oneof the possible topics to be addressed.

Urbanization and changes in the size and structure of farms will raisenumerous challenges for health and nutrition.

They will also bring potential bene�ts.

Perhaps a good moment to think whether there are targets here thatthe CGIAR might usefully hit...

A possibility of moving into some new areas of research.


Technology

Douglas Gollin, ISPC Council Member "Farm Size, Urbanization and the Links to Agriculture, Nutrition and Health: economic perspectives"