Co-creative Intelligence

Reijo Paajanen

CEO

DIGILE Oy

DIGILE Foresight Seminar

Wed Jan 28, Paasitorni, Helsinki

DIGILE in a Nutshell

• DIGILE is the Strategic Center for Science, Technology and Innovation (SHOK) focusing on Internet economy and related technologies and business

• Mission: DIGILE creates Internet economy competencies to enable new global business and job growth for DIGILE’s stakeholders and partners

• Three main co-creation services:

– Research: Cooperative national and international research programs to create new technological and business innovations

– Solutions: Facilitation of business ecosystems and lead solution creation to explore new global business opportunities

– Digital service creation: FORGE Service Lab for fast digital service creation and competence scaling

• Core enablers:

– International networking

– Operative excellence

– Co-creation leadership

2

Research Portfolio Development

Industry is asking for more volume = is willing to invest in competencecreation in Finland!>>> DIGILE’s service volume will grow to over 80 M€ in 2015

DIGILE Research program volumes (k€)

2008 2014 est. Together

FI 3 216 0 27 674

DIEM 5 178 0 38 046

FS 1 848 0 13 329

CT 1 404 0 11 084

CSW 0 943 61 560

NM 0 1 600 33 773

D2I 0 11 766 27 953

IoT 0 13 884 35 196

DS 0 11 701 26 741

N4S 0 20 538 20 538

Together 11 646 60 432 295 894

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 est.

3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

FI DIEM CSW NM D2I IoT DS

Large comp.

SME

Research institutes

Research participants by type in 2013

26.11.2014

DIGILE’s annual participationnumbers in 2013/2014: • Companies ~ 150/200• Research institutes ~ 18/20• People involved > 1300/1500

DIGILE - RESEARCH PROGRAM PORTFOLIO 2015

26.11.2014 4

Networks Building

blocks

Services and

solutions

Business models

Ecosystems

New

Paradigms

Inte

rnet

eco

no

my s

tru

ctu

re

Internet of Things Internet everywhere

Data to Intelligence Acting on data

Digital Services Web of services

Need for Speed Mercury business

Cyber Trust Trust infrastructure

F-Secure

Nokia

Tieto

Elektrobit

Ericsson

Speedy Recovery Health data in workGE &

Lähitapiola

Next step:Co-creative intelligence

Strategic Competence Development Focus

Challenger

Telecom including mobile communication

competences and business

Computational including cloud computing and big data

competences and business

Current:Digital services in Internet economy

Internet of things

Digital media

Big and open data

Computational and humanintelligence &

innovation withbusiness development

Service design

Cloud computing

Next step:Co-creative intelligence

Starting point:Strong mobile technology base

Nee

d 4

Sp

eed

Dig

ital

Ser

vice

s

Dat

a to

Inte

llige

nce

Inte

rnet

of

Thin

gs

Agile company

526.11.2014

Portfolio?

The world of Co-Creative Intelligence (CCI)

Last year (2014) signals

• Stephen Hawking: 'Transcendence (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VCTen3-B8GU ) looks at the implications of artificial intelligence - but are we taking AI seriously enough?

– Success in creating AI would be the biggest event in human history. Unfortunately, it might also be the last, unless we learn how to avoid the risks, says a group of leading scientists

– http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/stephen-hawking-transcendence-looks-at-the-implications-of-artificial-intelligence--but-are-we-taking-ai-seriously-enough-9313474.html

• Tesla’s Elon Musk: " artificial intelligence is our biggest existential threat"

– “I think we should be very careful about artificial intelligence. If I had to guess at what our biggest existential threat is, it’s probably that. So we need to be very careful,” said Musk. “I’m increasingly inclined to think that there should be some regulatory oversight, maybe at the national and international level, just to make sure that we don’t do something very foolish.”

– http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2014/oct/27/elon-musk-artificial-intelligence-ai-biggest-existential-threat

Superintelligence

Contents (main chapters)

• 1. Past developments and present capabilities

• 2. Paths to superintelligence

• 3. Forms of superintelligence

• 4. The kinetics of an intelligence explosion

• 5. Decisive strategic advantage

• 6. Cognitive superpowers

• 7. The superintelligent will

• 8. Is the default outcome doom?

• 9. The control problem

• 10. Oracles, genies, sovereigns, tools

• 11. Multipolar scenarios

• 12. Acquiring values

• 13. Choosing the criteria for choosing

• 14. The strategic picture

• 15. Crunch time

• Bostrom, Nick (2014-07-03). Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies (Kindle Location 191). Oxford University Press. Kindle Edition.

Superintelligence

• If some day we build machine brains that surpass human brains in general intelligence, then this new superintelligence could become very powerful.

Financial Times, July 13, 2014 (1/3)

• Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, by Nick Bostrom

– Review by Clive Cookson

• In ‘Superintelligence’, Nick Bostrom argues that we need to endow robots with human values

• Yet his book is based on the premise that AI research will sooner or later produce a computer with a general intelligence (rather than a special capability such as playing chess) that matches the human brain. While the corporate old guard such as IBM has long been interested in the field, the new generation on the US West Coast is making strides. Among the leaders, Google offers PR-led glimpses into its work, from driverless cars to neural networks that learn to recognise faces as they search for images in millions of web pages.

• The book enters more original territory when discussing the emergence of superintelligence. The sci-fi scenario of intelligent machines taking over the world could become a reality very soon after their powers surpass the human brain, Bostrom argues. Machines could improve their own capabilities far faster than human computer scientists.

• What would the world be like after the takeover? It would contain far more intricate and intelligent structures than anything we can imagine today – but would lack any type of being that is conscious or whose welfare has moral significance. “A society of economic miracles and technological awesomeness, with nobody there to benefit,” as Bostrom puts it. “A Disneyland without children.”

• Letters in response to this review:

• Giving machines human values would be the wrong thing / From Mr Oliver Corlett

• Computers can’t share human history / From Dr Hugh Goodacre

• Humans can always pull the plug / From Mr Ray Soifer

Two possible pathways

26.11.2014 11

The Centre for Study of Existential Risk

12

The Centre for Study of Existential Risk

• The Centre for Study of Existential Risk is an interdisciplinary research centrefocused on the study of human extinction-level risks that may emerge from technological advances.

• Co-founders

• Advisors:

– Cambridge advisors: 13

– External advisors: 14

– See full list here: http://cser.org/about/who-we-are/

Source: http://cser.org/

Huw Price

Bertrand Russell Professor

of Philosophy, Cambridge

Martin Rees

Emeritus Professor of

Cosmology &

Astrophysics, Cambridge

Jaan Tallinn

Co-founder of Skype

The Centre for Study of Existential Risk: Research

Emerging Risks From Technology

• What is Existential Risk?

– An existential risk is one that threatens the existence of our entire species.

– Humanity has always faced “risks from nature”: the Toba volcanic super-eruption may have reduced the human population to near-extinction level 70,000 years ago, and a meteor impact is believed to have wiped out many of the planet’s species, including the dinosaurs, 65 million years ago.

– These risks still exist, but they have been joined by a new source of risk: humanity’s technological power. The latter half of the 20th century represents the first point in human history where our technological progress allowed us to develop weapons with potential species-ending capability: nuclear weapons.

• Emerging Risks from Technology

– While the point of greatest danger for all-out nuclear exchange appears to have passed, several other sources of technological risk are emerging. Given humanity’s track record of surviving natural risks to date, it has been strongly argued that the greatest sources of risk over the coming century will be those that emerge from human activity, whether by “terror or error”: by deliberate use of weapons, or from the catastrophic impacts of accidents involving powerful technology.

– Specific technologies that scientists and writers of great distinction have raised concerns over include artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and nanotechnology (e.g., von Neumann 1958; Sagan 1983; Parfit 1984; Gott 1993; Hawking 2010; Rees 2003; Posner 2004; Matheny 2007). A more general concern relates to our increasing reliance on limited resources and fragile, increasingly interconnected systems.

– A key concern for CSER will be to identify areas of technology-related risk that have not received sufficient academic and scientific study to date. In doing so, we will aim to identify which concerns need to be taken seriously – which technologies will require very careful thought to be given to appropriate safety protocols and governmental regulation – and which concerns can safely be dismissed as science fiction.

Source: http://cser.org/

The Future of Humanity Institute

18

The Future of Humanity Institute

• The Future of Humanity Institute is a multidisciplinary research institute at the University of Oxford. It enables a select set of leading intellects to bring the tools of mathematics, philosophy, and science to bear on big-picture questions about humanity and its prospects. The Institute belongs to the Faculty of Philosophy and is affiliated with the Oxford Martin School.

• Mission– The Future of Humanity Institute is a leading

research centre looking at big-picture questions for human civilization. The last few centuries have seen tremendous change, and this century might transform the human condition in even more fundamental ways. Using the tools of mathematics, philosophy, and science, we explore the risks and opportunities that will arise from technological change, weigh ethical dilemmas, and evaluate global priorities. Our goal is to clarify the choices that will shape humanity’s long-term future.

– For a thoughtful introduction to the FHI and its mission, we suggest “Omens“, Aeon‘s profile of the Future of Humanity Institute.

Source: http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/

The Machine Intelligence Research Institute

20

The Machine Intelligence Research Institute

• The foundations of AI safety

• MIRI’s mission is to ensure that the creation of smarter-than-human intelligence has a positive impact. We aim to make intelligent machines behave as we intend even in the absence of immediate human supervision. Much of our current research deals with reflection, an AI’s ability to reason about its own behavior in a principled rather than ad-hoc way. We focus our research on AI approaches that can be made transparent (e.g. principled decision algorithms, not genetic algorithms), so that humans can understand why the AIs behave as they do.

• Research: http://intelligence.org/research/

– Computational Self-Reflection: How can we develop a rigorous basis for reflective reasoning?

– Decision Procedures: How can we develop a better formal foundation for decision making under uncertainty?

– Value Functions: How can we formally specify an AI’s goals, such that the formalism matches our intentions? How can we ensure those intended goals are preserved even as an AI modifies itself?

– Forecasting: What can we predict about future AI? Which interventions appear to be the most beneficial?

Source: http://intelligence.org/

The Future of Life Institute

22

The Future of Life Institute

• Technology has given life the opportunity to flourish like never before... or to self-destruct.

• Mission

– To catalyze and support research and initiatives for safeguarding life and developing optimistic visions of the future, including positive ways for humanity to steer its own course considering new technologies and challenges.

• Who: http://thefutureoflife.org/who

• Themes

– Biotechnology

– Computer technology

– Nanotechnology

– Nuclear technology

– Environment

– Other

Source: http://thefutureoflife.org/

AI visions – movies and Watson

21.8.2013

I, Robot

Extant and artificial boy

Watson – “roadmap”

Other forms of intelligence

21.8.2013

Opportunity is wider for co-creative intelligence

• Human beings and animals working together

– http://areena.yle.fi/tv/1758934

21.8.2013

Opportunity is wider

• Flock of robots

• Flying robots

– http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/02/26/283090909/robot-swarm-a-flock-of-drones-that-fly-autonomously

21.8.2013

Enriched human

• Service Aided Human = SAH

– Instead of computer aided design (CAD)

21.8.2013

Microsoft Hololens augmented reality

headset

”world’s most advanced holographic

computing platform, enabled by Windows 10. For

the first time ever, Microsoft HoloLens brings high-

definition holograms to life in your world, where they integrate with your physical places, spaces, and things.” Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aThCr0PsyuASource: http://www.microsoft.com/microsoft-hololens/en-us

Crowdeverything

21.8.2013

Internet

Intranet

Internet

Intranet

Two Processing Layers

..) ..) ..) ..) ..)

..) ..)

”Human processing” – amount of computing power and

memory remains same on individual level

computing cloudsRapid increase of the

computing power, memory,

amount of data and information

and networking bandwidth!

Adaptation of

new opportunities

is closing

the gap >>>

Crowdcomputing*?!?

DIGILE Confidential

* Wikipedia: Eric Brown coined

the term "Crowdcomputing"

in 200930

Computational

Intelligence

Building Blocks of Co-creative Intelligence

Digital services will be extremely powerful companion for digitally enhanced human beings

Computational

Intelligence

31

Platformeconomy asbusinessdriver now!

Where are the platforms?

Fastest growth*

Soon everywhere in business verticals, behind various services etc.

* Role models with the most advanced platforms among this group of companiesFinnish Initiative

Platform firms are becoming more and more important in the economy

• What is the Emerging Platform Economy?A platform business can be defined as a medium which lets others connect to it. Platform businesses can be found in a growing number of industries including social networking (Facebook, LinkedIn); internet auctions and retail (Amazon, eBay, Angie’s List); on-line financial and human resource functions (Workday, Elance-oDesk, Freelancer, WorkFusion), urban transportation (Uber, Lyft, Sidecar), mobile payment (Mahala, Square) and clean energy (Sungevity, SolarCity, EnerNOC).

– Source: http://thecge.net/category/research/the-emerging-platform-economy/

Source: Cisco

Sta

tistic

Researc

h a

nd d

efinitio

ns

Finnish Initiative

Zalando

For details see: http://www.excitingcommerce.com/2012/08/zalando-technology-update-on-the-e-commerce-platform.html

34DIGILE Confidential

Robots and cars – extension to service platforms

26.11.2014 35

Hospital soon

26.11.2014 36

Various fleets

26.11.2014 37

Computational

Intelligence

Building Blocks of Co-creative Intelligence

Digital services will be extremely powerful companion for digitally enhanced human beings

Computational

Intelligence

38

1) Users wantmore intelligentservices!

2)Platformswill use alsocomputationalintelligence!

3) To meet this demand!

Future

• Mixture of intelligence categories in one way or other

• DIGILE’s question:– What are the needed competencies to build growth and new jobs

based on this development

• Short term forecast:– Platform economy will the natural place to mix intelligences first

– There will be plenty of evolving growth opportunities outside the most risky or objected areas of the development

• Even testing of the systemic intelligence

• Co-creative intelligence is the new growth paradigm!

26.11.2014 39

DIGILE – ENABLING DIGITAL GROWTH

www.digile.fi

Artificial consciousness

• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_consciousness

• Chalmers' argument for artificial consciousness

• One of the most explicit arguments for the plausibility of AC comes from David Chalmers. His proposal, found within his manuscript A Computational Foundation for the Study of Cognition, is roughly that computers perform computations and the right kinds of computations are sufficient for the possession of a conscious mind. In outline, he defends his claim thus: Computers perform computations. Computations can capture other systems’ abstract causal organization. Mental properties are nothing over and above abstract causal organization. Therefore, computers running the right kind of computations will instantiate mental properties

26.11.2014

This Neuroscientist Is Trying to Upload His Entire Brain to a Computer

• December 18, 2014, by Georgia Rose

• Humans, if you hadn't already noticed, have stopped evolving. As David Attenborough recently reminded us, our species is the first – by our free will – to remove itself from the process of natural selection, therefore stunting evolution. That, accompanied bySteven Hawking and Elon Musk's theories that robots will supersede human intelligence and become our biggest existential threat, paints a pretty bleak vision of the future.

• Neuroscientist Randal Koene has the answer. Instead of allowing robots to become our cold, lifeless overlords, why don't we just become partially robotic ourselves? Koene is currently working on whole brain emulation, the process of being able to upload our minds to a computer. By mapping the brain, figuring out its mechanisms and replicating this activity in code, humans could – theoretically –live on indefinitely.

• Source: http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/randal-koene-brain-uploading-438

26.11.2014 42