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Consolidación de un modelo propio de vigilancia tecnológica
Francisco José Córdoba Otálora
Agente operativo
Tipos de Inteligencia
Research
Basic Criteria
• Actionable– Accuracy is absolutely critical– Completion is our goal in everything– Neat, organized, accessible
• Timely– Focus. Keep the multitasking in check.– Knowing where to go (hint: probably not
Google)
Communication
• Always be available during your scheduled hours and DON’T BE AWOL
• Be logged into your IM account and watching email
• Keep Research Dept in the loop– Quality assurance for STRATFOR– Access to resources and guidance for you– Avoid huge wastes of time– Reply-All is the rule, not the exception
Time Management
• Research starts with questions. Get your bearings.• Spend enough time that the research is solid, but
not so much that a missed deadline destroys its value.
• Set personal deadlines and keep them.• Always start with the assumption that the intel
exists: Where is it and how long will it take to find it?
INFORMATION ZONES
Interns will spend most time working in the outer two zones: electronic and paper formatted OSINT.
Modes of Collection
• Passive– Rapid, efficient, cheap, anonymous– Our lifeblood.
• Semi-active– Can be extremely valuable by allowing you to
get quick answers to complex questions.– At the mercy of others, so start early.
• Active: Field work. Won’t be using it.
passiveCollection Mode:
The Internet
• This is our world. STRATFOR wouldn’t exist in its current form without that great networked ocean of knowledge.
• Get to know it. Be a geek.• Explore creative new ways to obtain
knowledge• Invent interesting ways to interpret it• Be on the cutting edge
The Deep Web
• Databases that are not indexed by major search engines
• 500-550x more info than surface web. Roughly size of 300 LOC’s.
• You’ve got to know where to look
Internet Dos and Don’ts
• DON’T– Outsource your brain to Google – It makes
you dumb and confines you to the surface– Trust the first report you come across – Back-
trace to source. Independently verify.• DO
– Use the grey matter before the microchip. THINK. “Who would have the information I need?”
– Start stupid, build up.
Finding Sources
• Research sources XLS• Networked bookmarks• Google - I lied, it’s awesome
– Search modifiers, URL analysis– ‘Database’ search
• Wikipedia– Be careful – Only good as a jumping off point– Check the links at the bottom
• Trade orgs and market reports – money at stake and boots on the ground
• Blogs
Economy and Finance
• IMF. IFS, WEO, SDDS, Article IV consultations, papers.
• UN. Commodities, demographics, external debt, developmental.
• EIA, IEA, OPEC, BP, Petroleum Economist, Oil and Gas Journal, FAS, FAO, USGS
• Eurostat, ITC TradeMap, bilaterals.org
Military and Counterterrorism
• DOD/Dot-Mils, Press releases, PAOs• UNHCR, ReliefWeb, Logistics Cluster• Global Security, Military Periscope, SIPRI,
INSS, Jane’s, IISS Balance• RAND, CSIS, Brookings, Institute for Study
of War, etc• NCTC WITS, UMD GTD, SATP• Facebook, blogs (surprisingly)
Other Useful Sources
• Government websites– Ministries for everything! Trade, finance, defense,
foreign affairs, etc.– Central banks
• Reference library– Janes, Military Balance, Energy Atlases, statistical
references, maps, periodicals, etc
• The library (brick structure with books inside)
Media Reports
• Distinguish between OSINT and HUMINT– OSINT: Access the primary source– HUMINT: Handle with care.
• Fully back-trace and cite.• Reliable outlets only (no Debka or
Prison Planet for starters)• Seek independent verification
Digging up Media Reports
• Internal– Stratfor.com– Your own email
• Quick Find vs. Message Search• OS collections and translations
– Mailman archives• External
– Monitoring sites list– Google News/Archives/Newspapers
• Modifiers work here too
– BBC Monitoring– Nexis
Radix non grata
• CIA World Factbook– Woefully outdated, frequently inaccurate
• Most junk on Wikipedia– Opinion– Analysis– Outright lunacy
• Indexmundi and Nationmaster– Just aggregating from sources you should know anyway
(and CIA Factbook)• Whatever random garbage your Google search
turned up
Semi-activeCollection Mode:
Representing STRATFOR
• At first, consult with senior staff before ‘reaching out’ – we’ll approve your plan.
• How to identify yourself– Global intelligence company (mysterious)– Research firm (business focused)– Media/publishing company (innocuous)
• Remain courteous, project confidence, speak knowledgeably
Combining with Passive
• Always have conducted passive gathering first. Remember: SPEAK KNOWLEDGEABLY.
• Get calls/emails out as early as you can, then return to passive collection while you wait for response
Who To Contact
• Reporters• Other academics and researchers• Information desks at government agencies
and libraries• Public affairs officers• The appropriate attaché at the embassy• Local business, chamber of commerce, port
authority, police department, statistical agency, etc, etc.
Finding Contact Info
• Websites: About us / Contact us
• Academic papers are usually the mother lode of contact info. Check the executive summaries and back covers.
• Media articles sometimes have reporters’ email addresses
• Referrals
Phone or Email?
• Phone is often better than email– Harder to ignore– Inject some humanity into the interaction and
even lay on a little charm
• Email may be more appropriate– Time zone differences– Easier to relay complex data
• Combine as appropriate
Managing Contacts
• Don’t take ‘no’ for an answer – get a referral
• Submit full contact info to senior staff for archival– Names, titles, phone numbers, emails, etc– Notes: How helpful? Particular area of
expertise?
ground rulesSubmitting Research:
Formatting Rules
• Learn them once, benefit for the rest of your time here
• Senior staff insists on quality• Don’t send a Word doc to do an Excel
spreadsheet’s job• Your final product must be accessible
– Put yourself in your “client’s” shoes. Would they want to look at your product?
Present It Backwards• If you’re asked a
question, what is expected? Put it at the top.
• Then outline how you got there
• Get into the nuts and bolts last
CITE CITE CITE CITE CITE
• Much of this research will be your legacy at STRATFOR. Please don’t make me throw it away.
• Fully document both your sources and methods
• Be as specific as possible
DATE DATE DATE DATE DATE
• I’m tired of typing these slides
• Just date everything, okay?
• That means individual components, sources, entire documents, everything!
Alternative Platforms
• Google Earth• ArcGIS/QuantumGIS• Timeline• Slideshow• Mixed
– Word/Excel– Earth/Text/Graphics– Whatever makes the information most
accessible
End notes
Real World vs. Academia
• Different time management strategies– Academia: Two minutes early same as two
days early– Real World: Real gains for early submissions.
(Caveat: still has to be right)• “Just get it turned in” is not an option• Citations must be rigorously traced back
to their original source
How to be Confident in your Research
• Read the fine print. Often the very heart of the research will be located there.
• Independently verify. This will exponentially boost your confidence.
• Assess and re-task multiple times. Running this cycle refines the product.
• Become an authority. Go beyond the specific question and into the broader context.
READY TO BEGIN?
Client Work:
• GV (includes sweeps, writing and editing).
• Investigations.
• Report writing.
• Reports - comments (aka “hack it apart”).
• Reports editing (analysts).
• Edit (writers only).
• Copy edit (writers only).
Client Work (cont):
• Maps (all) includes analyst research, map creation, and writers edit.
• Graphics (all) includes analyst research, graphic creation, and writers edit.
• Client briefings (includes prep time).
• Travel (only include travel during work day, e.g. normal work hours lost due to travel).
• Client admin.
Work Area Profile of All Depts
Percentages express portion of total work time associated with each major work area. Includes all work departments. Remember that client work is further sub-categorized into the elements of CIS/GV.
As an example, the briefers spend 184 hours on client work, which was 58% of their total hours. Graphical depiction of this on pages 14 & 15.
WorkArea Briefer CT Geopol Graphics Intel OSINT PP WG Grand Total
Client Work 184 42 95 30 28 98 50 526
Intel O/H 130 325 650 10 208 528 52 219 2123
Training 1 23 8 2 2 1 2 40
Web Prod 0 98 392 90 29 62 357 1028
Grand Total 314 489 1146 101 269 619 152 628 3717
WorkArea Briefer CT Geopol Graphics Intel OSINT PP WG Total
Client Work 58% 9% 8% 0% 11% 5% 65% 8% 14%
Intel O/H 41% 67% 57% 10% 77% 85% 34% 35% 57%
Training 0% 5% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1% 0% 1%
Web Prod 0% 20% 34% 90% 11% 10% 0% 57% 28%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Hours
Percent
https://wikileaks.org/gifiles/releasedate/2012-02-27-00-stratford-monitored-bhopal-activists-including.html
For example – if the article is something about the most recent development in the diplomatic spat between Brazil and Paraguay over electricity from the Itaipu dam, the subject line would look something like this:
BRAZIL/PARAGUAY/ENERGY – Stupid South Americans still fighting about a damn dam
G = GeopoliticalS = SecurityB = BusinessPriority Level 1 - 4
For CommentFor Edit
