Crime Analysis

Copyright protected 2005: Hi Tech Criminal Justice, Raymond E. Foster

Police TechnologyPolice TechnologyChapter TwelveChapter Twelve

Crime AnalysisCrime Analysis


Learning ObjectivesLearning Objectives

Understand the definition of crime Understand the definition of crime analysis and underpinning theoriesanalysis and underpinning theories

Understand the applications of Understand the applications of crime analysiscrime analysis

Be exposed to how crime analysis Be exposed to how crime analysis can be used to solve community can be used to solve community problems and advanced crime problems and advanced crime mapping topicsmapping topics


IntroductionIntroduction

Without the component of Without the component of criminal investigations, neither criminal investigations, neither the Community Policing nor the Community Policing nor Problem-Oriented Policing Problem-Oriented Policing models have value. models have value.


IntroductionIntroduction

At the core, the At the core, the functions of state and functions of state and local law enforcement local law enforcement remain: remain:

PreventionPrevention Investigation, and Investigation, and ApprehensionApprehension


Crime Analysis Crime Analysis and Community-Oriented Policingand Community-Oriented Policing

Problem solving is a critical Problem solving is a critical component of the COP model. component of the COP model.

An essential part of problem An essential part of problem solving is an examination of solving is an examination of incidents, their relationships to incidents, their relationships to each other, and their each other, and their relationships to underlying relationships to underlying problems. problems.


One of the ways police officers use One of the ways police officers use their expertise in problem solving their expertise in problem solving is through the analysis of crime. is through the analysis of crime.

Crime analysis starts with crime Crime analysis starts with crime mapping. mapping.

A crime may be the result of a A crime may be the result of a variety of other factors. variety of other factors.




Crime mapping is Crime mapping is about: about:

Problem solvingProblem solving The identification of The identification of

the problem the problem Using the Using the

information gained information gained from analysis to from analysis to mitigate the problemmitigate the problem


Scanning-Analysis-Response-Scanning-Analysis-Response-AssessmentAssessment: :

One of the most prevalent problem-One of the most prevalent problem-solving methodologies used by police solving methodologies used by police departmentsdepartments

S A R AS A R A


What Are the Benefits What Are the Benefits of Crime Analysis?of Crime Analysis?

The ability to show relationships The ability to show relationships between crime and casual between crime and casual factors. factors.

Promotes information integration Promotes information integration and cooperation among different and cooperation among different police agencies and other police agencies and other government agenciesgovernment agencies


A COP enhancer because they A COP enhancer because they can assist in the establishment of can assist in the establishment of partnerships with other non-law partnerships with other non-law enforcement agencies. enforcement agencies.

Can enhance communication Can enhance communication within and without the police within and without the police department. department.

Crime Analysis and COPCrime Analysis and COP


These relationship factors may be:These relationship factors may be: SpatialSpatial in nature (resulting from in nature (resulting from

its proximity to a location).its proximity to a location). TemporalTemporal – Having to do with a – Having to do with a

certain time periodcertain time period

Time, Space and CrimeTime, Space and Crime


DisplacementDisplacement Crime analysis information is used Crime analysis information is used

to deploy more officers in an area to deploy more officers in an area that is experiencing a higher crime that is experiencing a higher crime rate. rate.

The deployment of more officers The deployment of more officers stops the crime form occurring stops the crime form occurring there and then – It is displaced. there and then – It is displaced.

DisplacementDisplacement can be spatial or can be spatial or temporal. temporal.


IncapacitationIncapacitation

Most crime is committed by a Most crime is committed by a very small percentage of a very small percentage of a community. community.

The police should be targeting The police should be targeting their efforts on those individualstheir efforts on those individuals

If an offender is arrested instead If an offender is arrested instead of being displaced, of being displaced, incapacitation incapacitation occurs. occurs.


Serial CrimesSerial Crimes

Multiple crimes committed by an Multiple crimes committed by an offender or group of offenders, offender or group of offenders, which occur over a period of which occur over a period of time. time.

Crime analysis is moving towards Crime analysis is moving towards the identification of serial crimes the identification of serial crimes and the targeting of serial and the targeting of serial offendersoffenders


Rational Choice, Situational Crime Rational Choice, Situational Crime Prevention, and Crime AnalysisPrevention, and Crime Analysis

Situational Crime Situational Crime Prevention isPrevention is

based on two based on two things: things:

Offender Offender opportunityopportunity and and

Rational Choice Rational Choice TheoryTheory


Offenders choose to commit Offenders choose to commit crimes when: crimes when:

The opportunity is rightThe opportunity is right They have enough information They have enough information

that the value of the crime is that the value of the crime is more than the risk of punishment more than the risk of punishment (risk vs. value)(risk vs. value)

Offender opportunity Offender opportunity


Routine Activity TheoryRoutine Activity Theory

Three parts to this Three parts to this theory:theory:

An offenderAn offender A victimA victim The absence of an The absence of an

interfering or interfering or restraining force – restraining force – something that adds something that adds to the risk of to the risk of detection. detection.


The Basic Requirements The Basic Requirements for Crime Analysisfor Crime Analysis

You cannot conduct modern You cannot conduct modern crime analysis without crime analysis without mapping capabilitiesmapping capabilities

You cannot conduct You cannot conduct geographic and statistical geographic and statistical analysis without minimal analysis without minimal hardware and software hardware and software


At minimum you need . . . At minimum you need . . .

A laptop or desktop A laptop or desktop computer with computer with sufficient speedsufficient speed

Hard disk storage to Hard disk storage to accommodate your accommodate your data and functionsdata and functions

A high-quality A high-quality printer that can printer that can handle color maps handle color maps and workload. and workload.


Where does the data come from?Where does the data come from?

Two types of data needed: Two types of data needed: Mapping dataMapping data – general – general

data about your communitydata about your community Crime dataCrime data – specific data – specific data

about criminal occurrences about criminal occurrences in your communityin your community


The Analysis of a CrimeThe Analysis of a Crime

Crime analysis begins with Crime analysis begins with statistical analysisstatistical analysis. Mapping . Mapping is critical to crime analysis, is critical to crime analysis, but it is not the starting point. but it is not the starting point.


Mean Mean numbernumber

the averagethe average

Burglaries 2003/4Burglaries 2003/4

JanJan 8282

FebFeb 7878

MarMar 7575

AprilApril 7474

MayMay 7575

JuneJune 8080

JulyJuly 7272

AugAug 7575

SeptSept 7878

OctOct 8080

NovNov 110110

DecDec 114114

993993

993 / 12 = 82993 / 12 = 82


The Analysis of a CrimeThe Analysis of a Crime

Begins with look at average Begins with look at average occurrences as compared to another occurrences as compared to another period.period. This can indicate a rise in crime.This can indicate a rise in crime.

After initial statistical analysis that After initial statistical analysis that indicates a rise, the search for patterns indicates a rise, the search for patterns begins.begins. A search for patterns – time, date, method A search for patterns – time, date, method

of operation, etc, can lead to potential of operation, etc, can lead to potential solutionssolutions


Hot SpotsHot Spots An area that traditionally An area that traditionally

has a lot of crime or has a lot of crime or An area with an unusual An area with an unusual

increase in crimeincrease in crime


ForecastingForecasting

The use of The use of mathematical mathematical models to predict models to predict the next likely the next likely occurrenceoccurrence


ForecastingForecasting

Attempting to Attempting to predict future events predict future events by using past events by using past events as a guide. as a guide. TemporalTemporal analysis is analysis is

the most common the most common type of forecastingtype of forecasting

SpatialSpatial analysis is analysis is less common less common


Crime Analysis Crime Analysis and Problemsand Problems

A problem is a cluster of incidents. A problem is a cluster of incidents. The relationship of the problem to The relationship of the problem to

space and time may provide space and time may provide information about the solution.information about the solution. Perhaps causation like driving under Perhaps causation like driving under

the influence arrests and the location the influence arrests and the location of locations that sell alcoholic of locations that sell alcoholic beveragesbeverages

Perhaps causation like the presence of Perhaps causation like the presence of an active offender an active offender


Geographic ProfilingGeographic Profiling

Used with serial crimes (typically Used with serial crimes (typically the most serious crimes)the most serious crimes)

Used to determine offender’s Used to determine offender’s geographic attributes (where geographic attributes (where they might live, work, and they might live, work, and socialize). socialize).


Takes the attributes of time, Takes the attributes of time, space, behavior, target, and space, behavior, target, and offender and analyzes their offender and analyzes their spatial and temporal information spatial and temporal information in order to determine an in order to determine an offender’s offender’s activity spaceactivity space (the (the hunting area). hunting area).

Geographic ProfilingGeographic Profiling


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