With 6.6 billion people (And most living in urban areas)

-What is earth’s carrying capacity? -- How is that determined?

Ecological Footprint Comparison

27.4

24.021.8

13.0

9.5

3.1 2.5

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Marin

County

United

States

Canada France Italy Chile Mexico

Acre

s p

er

Pe

rso

n

Data for 2002 Eco-Footprint Biocapacity

[global acres/cap] [global acres/cap]

Brazil 5 25

China 4 2

Germany 11 4.5

Italy 10 3

Japan 11 2

Russia 11 17

South Africa 6 5

US 24 12

WORLD 5.4 4.4

Ecological Creditors and Ecological Debtors

Earth Overshoot

• We now require the equivalent of 1.4 planets to support our lifestyles.

• The result is that our supply of natural resources, such as trees and fish, continues to shrink, while waste, primarily carbon dioxide, accumulates.

Global Context for the Coming Decades

UN’s most moderate scenario

Context for the Future of Business:

UN’s most moderate scenario

What % of World GDP need to be invested to turn the curve?

What is your ecological footprint? -Diet and food -Trash -Housing -Travel and commute

Climate Change: Human Impact on the Atmosphere

• 270 Billion tons of carbon added since 19th century

• Since 1750, greenhouse gases in atmosphere increased substantially: CO2 > 31% N20 > 151% CH4 > 17% • Prior to 1750, CO2 levels at 280 ppm • CO2 levels now 380 ppm; highest level in 400,000 years

Global Temperature Increasing

•Rise in CO2 levels closely follows rise in temperature:

• Global temperatures rose 1°F in past 100 yrs, most in last 30 yrs

• 9 of 10 hottest years on record occurred in the last decade.

•Night time daily minimum temps increasing 2x faster than daytime maximum temperatures.

•Rate of warming much greater than in any of past 9 centuries.

Ice Caps & Glaciers Receding

35% loss in last 8 years

Snowmelt Is Declining

Warmer winters have already caused:

•Reduced snow pack

•Earlier snow melt

•Decreased spring runoff by 10%

Major effects on water

supply and Delta system

in California

Sea Levels Rising

8.00

8.20

8.40

8.60

8.80

9.00

9.20

9.40

9.60

9.80

10.00

1850 1865 1880 1895 1910 1925 1940 1955 1970 1985 2000

Year

MS

L (

Fe

et)

Tourists wading across San

Marcos Plaza in Venice due to

rising waters of Adriatic Sea

Sea levels in CA increased

7” since 1850

Global sea levels rose 4-8” over

the past 100 years, a rate 3 times

faster than occurred over the past

3000 years.

Changes in Nature

Bleaching of coral reefs due to rising sea temperatures -

have already lost 60% of tropical corals

Antarctic Penguin populations

have shrunk 33 % in 25 years.

Habitats are shifting, affecting wildlife food supplies and migration patterns

Economic Impacts

Extreme Weather

Events

Average annual economic

losses per decade have

increased 12x since 1950:

from $4 billion - $49 BB

Swiss Re estimates global economy could be bankrupt by 2065 if action is not taken

Methane 6%

Nitrous Oxide 7%

Carbon

Dioxide

84%

California GHG Composition (CO2 Equivalents)

GHG Sources • Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Fossil fuel combustion

• Methane Fossil fuels Landfills, agriculture

• Nitrous Oxide Agriculture, cars

• Hydrofluorocarbons Refrigerants, solvents

HFCs 3%

Predicted California Impacts • Temperature increase of 3.0 – 10.4 °F

• 30-90% loss in Sierra snow pack • 6-30 inches of Sea level rise • Up to 100 more days/yr of temps > 90 °F in major urban areas

– 2-10 times as many heat-related deaths

• 25-35% increase in days meteorologically conducive to ozone formation • Up to 50% increase in number critically dry years • 3- 20% increase in electricity demand • 10-35% increase in the risk of large fires • Significant impacts to Agriculture

California GHG Reduction Goals

• 2010: GHG emissions at 2000 levels

• 2020: GHG emissions to 1990 levels

• 2050: GHG emissions to 80% below 1990 levels

AB 32: Climate Solutions Act of 2006

No Magic Bullets

Individual Actions to Reduce GHGs

Method and Means:

• 1. Efficiency First

• 2. Smart Transit and Land Use

• 3. Power Up Locally

• 4. Conserve and Capture

#1: Efficiency First

ARUN District Council

1. Efficiency First

• Invest in wide spread energy and water efficiency to reduce demand.

– Retrofit existing buildings

– Maximize water efficiency homes and businesses

– Mandate green building standards

– Improve efficiency of pumping operations for water and wastewater

Goal: Retrofit homes & businesses to highest

possible efficiency standard

#2: Smart Transit & Land Use

Goal: Shift from fossil fuels to public transit,

non-emitting cars, bicycling, walking

#3: Power Up Locally

3. Power Up Locally

• Invest in renewable energy sources and jobs.

– Conduct a phased rollout of local renewable energy sources

– Replace natural gas and propane with electric and solar heat sources

– Incentivize small-scale solar, wind, and hydro installations

4. Conserve and Capture

• Protect our forests and farmland, sequester carbon, and convert waste into energy. – Encourage, incentivize, and mandate carbon

sequestration practices – Generate energy from agricultural solid waste – Generate energy from bio gas – Improve operational efficiency – Use conservation easements to protect agriculture

and forest land – Implement the County's Integrated Waste

Management Plan, and collect landfill bio gas

WhatWhWhat will it cost to do nothing?

AB 32: California Benefits

• Public health benefits of improved air quality alone will amount to approximately $2.2 billion

• Additional benefits by 2020 include:

– An estimated 400 premature deaths statewide will be avoided

– Almost 11,000 incidences of asthma and lower respiratory symptoms will be avoided

– 67,000 work loss days will be avoided – Reduced risks of coronary heart disease, diabetes,

hypertension and obesity

A Role for Everyone

∆ Business

Local Government

Community

BREAK

Moving from planning to implementation

identifying good

MODELS

ENGLAND . BELGIUM . HOLLAND . DENMARK .

SWEDEN .

transportation

OPTIONS

. ENGLAND . BELGIUM . HOLLAND . DENMARK .

SWEDEN .

surrey

ENGLAND

. ENGLAND . BELGIUM . HOLLAND . DENMARK .

SWEDEN .

amsterdam

HOLLAND

. ENGLAND . BELGIUM . HOLLAND . DENMARK .

SWEDEN .

amsterdam

HOLLAND

. ENGLAND . BELGIUM . HOLLAND . DENMARK .

SWEDEN .

samso

DENMARK

. ENGLAND . BELGIUM . HOLLAND . DENMARK .

SWEDEN .

100% Renewable Energy Generation

samso

DENMARK

. ENGLAND . BELGIUM . HOLLAND . DENMARK .

SWEDEN .

One urban design movement called

New Urbanism is affecting the way

our cities and towns are built.

New Urbanism- City Planning

Giving Physical Shape to Community

What’s Old in New Urbanism Since America was founded, many of our

best-loved towns and cities have been

carefully planned.

Giving Physical Shape to Community New urbanist developments are

walkable neighborhoods, rather

than large, single-use places with

streets hostile to pedestrians.

Giving Physical Shape to Community New Urbanism provides a range of

housing choices, from apartments

over storefronts to single-family

homes with yards.

The Disposable City For many years older American cities

were neglected and deteriorating. New

home buyers were almost exclusively

interested in living on the urban fringe.

Response to a Problem Since World War II, cities have been spreading ever-outward. Strip malls,

parking lots, highways, and housing tracts have sprawled over the landscape.

Cities Getting With the Program Nevertheless, many young childless households and older empty nesters appreciate the

advantages of urban living. Up until recently when the housing market tanked - urban

reinvestment was paying off – and some older cities were among America’s hottest real

estate markets.

Where it’s needed New Urbanism can be small projects on individual blocks, like the block on

8th and Pearl in Boulder, Colorado.

Where it’s needed It can also apply to redeveloped neighborhoods like Park DuValle in Louisville, Kentucky.

Other Successes The U.S. Department of Housing

and Urban Development has taken

New Urbanism to heart with its HOPE

VI program. HOPE VI replaces aging,

alienating housing projects with

townhouses, single-family homes,

and apartments on walkable,

comfortable street grids.

Where it may or may not be needed? New Urbanism includes greenfield projects, also called traditional neighborhood

developments (TNDs). Maryland's Kentlands and Lakelands are among the best-known.

Early Efforts The first new urbanist town to get built from the

ground up was Seaside, on the Florida coast.

Early Efforts Between 1985 and 1993, several more

large-scale projects were undertaken in

America’s fast-growing suburbs.

Kentlands and Laguna West were two of

the best-known and most ambitious efforts.

Laguna West, CA Kentlands, MD

Where it’s needed New Urbanists also take part in regional planning. In New Jersey, a statewide

plan has focused public investment into existing centers, and a statewide design

guideline is helping keep the state’s small towns vibrant.

The Region The region is the overall context for all

planning. That means planning must often

cross traditional jurisdictional lines in

order to create a healthy region.

The Region Towns and cities within a

region should have clear

boundaries, contributing to

a sense of place. The land

between towns should be

preserved as open space—

wilderness or farm-land.

These edges are as important

as the centers to the success

of New Urbanism.

The Region Wilderness, farmland, villages, town edges, town centers, city neighborhoods, and city

centers each have their own building densities, street sizes, and appropriate mixtures of

retail, residential, and other functions.

The Neighborhood The optimal size of a neighborhood is

a quarter-mile from center to edge.

For most people, a quarter mile is a

five-minute walk. For a

neighborhood to feel walkable, many

daily needs should be supplied within

this five-minute walk. That includes

not only homes, but stores,

workplaces, schools, houses of

worship, and recreational areas.

The Neighborhood People within a quarter-mile radius will walk to a

major transit stop. Those who live further from a transit

node are less likely to bother with the train or bus.

The Block, Street, and Building New urbanist streets use

buildings to provide a con-

sistent and understandable

edge and streets are safe,

comfortable, interesting

places for people to walk

and meet.

Buildings open onto

sidewalks, rather than

parking lots. Windows and

doors facing the sidewalk

make streets safer, and more

interesting, for everyone.

Progress in the Suburbs In new suburban developments, new urbanists

are including an ever-wider range of

architectural styles. While many new urbanist

developments have been built with colonial-style

architecture, recent projects include

neighborhoods of contemporary homes and

adobe.

Other Successes Mall redevelopment: Some malls

built in the 1960s, 70s, and even 80s

are underutilized or already failing in

cities and older suburbs. Some are

being converted into real

neighborhoods.

Greening California Communities:

Sustainability North and South

“Planning is best done in advance” - Anonymous

Built Environment

• Community Development

• Design

• Energy and Green Building

• Mineral Resources

• Housing

• Transportation

• Noise

• Public Facilities and Services

• Planning Areas

Topics in the Built Environment:

Greening our Built Environment

• Prevent sprawl – reduce outlying densities

• Require mixed-use in commercial areas

• Housing Overlay Designation – Focus

affordable & workforce housing at infill sites

near jobs, transit & services

• Require Green Building

• Retrofit existing buildings

Adapting to Climate Change: 1 Meter Sea Level Rise in Marin?

Marinwood Shopping Center

Before:

After:

San Quentin Vision Plan

Land Use Plan

How do we Green Transportation?

GREENING Transportation How will results be achieved?

• Reduce Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)

• Reduce Single Occupancy Automobile Trips

• Support regional rail initiatives, such as

SMART

GREENING Transportation

• Prioritize funding for projects that reduce

fossil-fuel use and single-occupancy auto trips

• Provide incentives for using public transit,

carpools, car sharing, bicycles, walking, etc

• Reduce parking requirements for projects

located near transit or thru trip reduction

programs

The Redevelopment Plan calls for:

• nearly 3,400 new homes

(35% of which will be affordable)

• 1.2 million square feet of new office, hotel, and commercial space and 60,000 square feet of retail

• Buildings to be spaced apart to provide sunlight to proposed new plazas, parks, and widened sidewalks

Santa Monica, a “Sustainable City”

A sustainable city meets its current

economic, environmental and social needs

without compromising the ability of future

generations to do the same.

Santa Monica - Background

Population: 90,000

Land Area: 8.3 sq. mi. (13.4 sq. km.)

Economy: Tourism, Entertainment

and High Tech Industries

Development: Primarily Infill

Development and Remodels

• 200.1 Acres

• 1892 Housing Units

• 600,000 Sq. Ft. Commercial

Sonoma Mountain Village

N. America’s Proposed 1 Planet

Community

UK London

Portugal Lisbon

South Africa Durbin

Australia Adelaide

China Guangzhou Panyu

Canada Montreal

USA Rohnert Park

USA Seattle

UK Brighton

USA Washington DC

U.A.E. Abu Dhabi

1.Zero Carbon

2.Zero Waste

3. Sustainable Transport

4. Local & Sustainable Materials

5. Local and Sustainable Food

6. Sustainable Water

7. Natural Habitats and Wildlife

8. Culture and Heritage

9. Equity and Fair Trade

10. Health and Happiness

Sonoma Mt. Village -1.14 MW Array – so far…

LOCAL & SUSTAINABLE MATERIALS

• Manufacture at least 20% of materials on-site

• Buy and additional 40% of materials within 500 miles – Create Standard Specifications

– Healthy Materials Standard

– Track Embodied Carbon in Materials and Activities

Codding Steel Frame Technologies

• On site manufacturing facility

• Local jobs

• Recycled steel – 8 recycled cars or 40 trees

• Solar powered

Portland Stormwater Management Manual

Conservation Design Forum Inc.

Vegetated Bio-Swale

Closing the Loop

• Rainwater harvesting and recycling

• Greywater harvesting and recycling

Michelle Kaufman MKLotus House

Local Government Green Building Ordinances in

California

California Communities with Enacted Mandatory Green Building Ordinances

Example Effective Date

Albany July 2007

Brisbane January 2008

Calabasas February 2004

Cotati January 2008

Culver City March 2008

Livermore January 2008

Long Beach Ord. Pending

Los Altos December 2007

Los Angeles May 2008

Novato October 2005

Palm Desert February 2007

Palo Alto July 2008

Pasadena May 2008

Pleasanton January 2003

Example Effective Date

Rohnert Park July 2007

San Francisco August 2008

San Jose Ord. Pending

San Rafael August 2007

San Mateo (Co.) March 2008

Santa Barbara March 2008

Santa Cruz January 2007

Santa Monica May 2008

Santa Rosa June 2008

Sebastopol March 2005

Marin (Co.) June 2008

Windsor June 2007

West Hollywood October 2007

Drought – or is the climate changing? • Australia, China, Argentina – all

have serious droughts • Australia, the driest inhabited

continent on earth may be permanently going from arid sub-tropical to desertification

• First to see decadal drought – South is in an unprecedented

12-year drought – Murray-Darling river system

now fails to reach the sea 40% of the time

– Harvests have fallen sharply

Melbourne

• Electricity Substation Explosion: – Half million homes

and businesses were blacked out

– Patients turned away from hospitals

– Trees: dropping leaves

– Residents at nursing homes: putting clothes in freezer

It’s Up To US to Get to Work