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K E Y M E SS A G E S –
1- Portfolio approaches are essential
2- Climate change information needs are synergistic
3- Climate change science challenges are both specifi c & generic
Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity &
Fisheries
3 - Climate change science challenges are both specifi c
& generic– quality science is always our goal and expected by our community, especially in a very confused policy space
Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity &
Fisheries
1 - Attr ibut ion– Cl imate change dr ivers and o ther s t ressors [ the 5% or the thresho ld i ssue]
2 - Var iabi l i ty – C l imate change and a var iab le c l imate , env i ronment , recru i tment success , management arrangements e tc [e .g . the sand cas t le debate ]
3 - Extremes– – a low f requency h igh sever i ty event may be agenda set t ing [ f requency versus sever i ty p lo t ]
4 – Synergies , feedbacks, interact ions and unforeseen consequences – do we rea l l y unders tand our sys tems? [ in tegrat ion on a l l sca les and contexts ]
Major Science Challenges
5 – Management pragmatism & adaptation smarts– the so what? and do what? quest ions [ the “doom & gloom” or opportuni ty focus]
6 – Policy Confusion – arguably the most confused publ ic pol icy space in Austral ia [and global ly mul t ip le agendas] p lacing extra responsibi l i ty on science
7 – Science quality, certainty, errors & leadership - responding to a quest ioning community, and just ifi ably so! [ the downscal ing or down ski l l ing i ssue]
Major Science Challenges [cont]
Changing currents in marine biodiversity governance and management:Responding to climate change
Spatial Scope
State marine jurisdictions:• Queensland (between Cape York and the NSW border)
• New South Wales • Tasmania (between the Kent Group and Southeast Cape)
Commonwealth jurisdiction adjoining thesestate waters
Human adaptation options to increase resilience of conservation-dependent seabirds and marine mammals impacted by climate change
Alistair Hobday (CSIRO)
Lynda Chambers (BOM)
John Arnould (Deakin)
2060
Frontiers in Ecology, 2006.
•95% of all deep-sea reef forming corals occur above the aragonite saturation horizon•By 2099, 70% of these sites will be in undersaturated water
Project: 2010/536
Beach and Surf Tourism and Recreation in Australia:
Vulnerability and Adaptation
Mike Raybould (Bond)Neil Lazarow (Griffith / DCCEE)Dave Anning (UNSW/Bond)
8
Opportunity
-Range of long-term physical and biological datasets available in SE Australia to build understanding of natural variability,climate change patterns, likely range extensions and species
interactions.
Use this understanding to develop climate change related predictions and potential adaptive intervention strategies to
enhance resilience of temperate reef ecosystems.
Richard Ling
Preadapting a Tasmanian coastal ecosystem to ongoing climate change through reintroduction of a locally extinct species
Nic Bax (CSIRO and UTAS)
Alistair Hobday (CSIRO)
Neville Barrett (UTAS)
Effects of climate change of coral [email protected]
Key outputs
1. Greatly extends existing scientific knowledge on the likely effects of climate change on coral reef fishes, considering for the first time impacts on important fisheries species (significant potential for high impact journal publications)
2. Fundamental information on environmental tolerances (at multiple stages in the life-cycle), which is critical for improving captive breeding and aquaculture
3. Directly contributes to local management of fisheries resources asidenitified GBRMPA Climate Change Action Plan., including
i) to explore specific sensitivities of ecologically and economically important species
ii) identifying areas of low and high resilience to climate change to prioritize management
iii) identify thresholds beyond which climate change causes irreversible damage
Objective 1Objective 2
Objective 4
Objective 3
Vulnerability of barramundi and related industries to climate change
Dean Jerry, Carolyn Smith-Keune, Guy Carton, Jeremy vanderWal, Igor Pirozzi, Kate Hutson and John Russell (QDEEDI)
James Cook UniversityTownsville, QLD
Australia
Aims1) To consolidate natural resource information that is
currently dispersed and inaccessible, but relevant to impacts on the oyster industry (e.g. pH, salinity, Chl-a, seagrass and wetlands, lease conditions etc.)
2)Deliver it in a format with relevance to the oyster industry to inform practical, adaptive reponses to shifting and variable environmental conditions
Identification of climate-driven species shifts and adaptation options for recreational fishers
Daniel Gledhill
Ichthyologist, CSIRO
10 & 11 February, 2011
Climate Adaptation
WA Program Development
National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan: Marine Biodiversity and Resources
Steve Blake, WAMSI
FRDC: Climate Change workshop
Management implications of climate change effects on fisheries in WA
Nick Caputi
February 2011
2010/565: Management implications of climate change
impacts on fisheries resources of tropical Australia
JCU, Qld DEEDI, NT DoR, GBRMPA, QSIA, Infofish Australia,UTAS, RRRC, Maynard Marine
Climate Change Adaptation
Building Community and Industry Knowledge
Jenny Shaw
Integrated conceptual framework...with gaps still to be
plugged
Knowledge & Strategies for Adaptation
Sentinel Biodiversity & Tourism Species & Communities
Sentinel Indigenous, Recreation/Tourism & Commercial Species
Marine Biodiversity Planning &
Management
Marine Fisheries
Management
Marine Systems and Populations – Shifts and Management
Implications
Inshore & Estuary Based Wild Fisheries
Inshore & Estuary Based Aquaculture
Marine Biophysical Climate Impact Understanding
Nearshore and Estuary Climate Impact & Adaptation
2 - Climate change information needs are
synergistic – all resource management challenges have multiple drivers and are multi-faceted in their solution
Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity &
Fisheries
About 55% of all biological carbon capture is “blue” carbon – ie: in the world’s ocean ecosystems
Some 93% of the earth’s CO2 is stored and cycled through our oceans
Between 50% - 71% of all carbon storage in the ocean’s sediments occurs in just 0.5% of the ocean area – the wetlands & estuaries
A Mitigation Example - “Blue” Carbon [UNEP]
Wetlands and estuaries comprise less than 0.05 of the world’s land based plant biomass but store a comparable amount of carbon
. . . .or capture and store about the equivalent of half the world’s transport sector emissions annually
. . . .but between 2% and 7% of our blue carbon sinks [wetlands] are lost annually
Clearly optimisation is essential – for habitat, food, biodiversity + carbon
A Mitigation Example -“Blue” Carbon [UNEP]
www.managingclimate.gov.au
An Adaptation ExampleWe will respond to climate change by adapting and responding to climate
variability
Australia already has the most variable climate
Climate variability is the time frame for enterprise profitability
The extremes are where the profits & costs really count
July-September outcome…May POAMA prediction
POAMA RF tercile 3
POAMA Max T tercile 1
POAMA Min T
tercile 1
Sustainable Landscapes
Keeping the Great Barrier Reef like this......a practice innovation example
Sustainable Landscapes
...not this
- implies attention to fostering more profitable and sustainable practices at commodity and catchment scales
Sustainable Landscapes
Reef Rescue & Project Catalyst Roll OutKey Ingredients include:Grants [Reef Rescue] – Increased $incentives if move to all “A” practices Social Attitudes help determine $allocations by catchment Regulations [Qld Govt] - Ensuring all the industry moves to at least “C” practices
Monitoring [Reef Rescue + Natural Resources Groups]Industry based practice monitoring by industryAlgorithms to translate to likely change in off-farm exportWater Quality & Ecosystem Health monitoring
R&D [Project Catalyst + Reef Rescue + Managing Climate Variability + RDC Practice Projects]What are the “new extremes”?What are the A* opportunities to respond to these extremes?How do we accelerate innovation?
1 - Portfolio approaches are essential - – if we are to deliver research fi ndings that meet multiple objectives, policy contexts,
investors and stakeholders
Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity &
Fisheries
R&D programs should- meet the needs of multiple investors – already FRDC, DCCEE, DAFF & State Governments
be bedded in multiple policy constructs - eg National Adaptat ion Research Plan, Nat ional Cl imate Change Act ion Plan for Fisheries and Aquaculture, FRDC Strategic Plan, Nat ional Environmental Research Plan, Marine Biodivers ity etc
Characteristics of a Portfolio Approach
R&D programs should- deliver to multiple stakeholders and sectors – conservat ion, wi ld commercia l fi shers , aquaculture , recreat ional fi shers , indigenous resource users , research agencies , management agencies , tour ist and other sectors
be both national and regional in scope – with a recognit ion that change and innovat ion happens at mult ip le levels
Characteristics of a Portfolio Approach [cont]
The key ingredients - conceptual frameworks – as a basis for establ ishing the knowledge gaps and investment pr ior i t ies to meet both investor and stakeholder needs
smart data systems - management, d iscovery, synergy, r igor, d isseminat ion and legacy
research capability – comparat ively mult i -d isc ipl inary and integrated, including across inst i tut ions
Essential elements of a portfolio approach
The key ingredients – researcher information sharing and networks – sel f managing teams bought together at a l l levels within and across port fo l ios
project management in a program context – phasing projects and outputs so projects synergise & integrate
outcome and knowledge delivery orientation – at scales from individual user to nat ional agenda sett ing fi nal report ing
Essential elements of a portfolio approach [cont]
Portfolio approaches are essential
Climate change information needs are synergistic
Climate change science challenges are both specifi c & generic
Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity &
Fisheries