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James Hansen and Arame Tall of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security research theme on Climate Risk Management, presented at the World Bank on the challenges and opportunities for supporting smallholder farmers with climate services on a large scale. Learn more about our work on climate services for farmers: http://bit.ly/KUV7Fa
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Challenges and Opportunities for Supporting Smallholder Farmers
through Climate Services – At Scale
James Hansen, Arame Tall
World Bank, 23 January 2014
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What is CCAFS?
• Strategic partnership of international agriculture (CGIAR) and global change (Future Earth) research communities
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• Strategic partnership of international agriculture (CGIAR) and global change (Future Earth) research communities
• World’s largest research program addressing the challenge of climate change and food security
What is CCAFS?
Ø Mechanism for organizing, funding climate-related work across CGIAR
Ø Involves all 15 CGIAR Centers
Ø Outcome-focused
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• Strategic partnership of international agriculture (CGIAR) and global change (Future Earth) research communities
• World’s largest research program addressing the challenge of climate change and food security
• 5 target regions across the developing world • Organized around 4 Themes:
• Adaptation to progressive change
• Adaptation through managing climate risk • Pro-poor climate change mitigation
• Integration for decision-making
What is CCAFS?
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• Strategic partnership of international agriculture (CGIAR) and global change (Future Earth) research communities
• World’s largest research program addressing the challenge of climate change and food security
• 5 target regions across the developing world • Organized around 4 Themes:
• Adaptation to progressive change
• Adaptation through managing climate risk • Pro-poor climate change mitigation
• Integration for decision-making
What is CCAFS?
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The What and Why of Climate Services
Message 1: Climate services can make a contribution to climate-resilient
development investment.
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The cost of climate variability
CR
ISIS
HA
RD
SH
IP
FOR
FEIT
ED
O
PP
OR
TU
NIT
Y
Climatic outcome (e.g. production, income)
Prob
abili
ty d
ensi
ty
• Climate risk contributes to chronic poverty, vulnerability, food insecurity • Downside risk: shocks • Opportunity cost: uncertainty • Affects farmers, markets, the food system,
the “relief trap”
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The cost of climate variability • Climate risk contributes to chronic
poverty, vulnerability, food insecurity • Downside risk: shocks • Opportunity cost: uncertainty • Affects farmers, markets, the food system,
the “relief trap”
• Climate variability is increasing • Several opportunities to help agriculture
adapt are… • Dependent on information • Constrained by information gaps
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Examples
• Adjusting farm management
• Community-level DRR (flood, storms)
• Characterize risks for agricultural technology
• Index-based insurance to protect assets, increase access to credit and inputs
• Government agricultural planning and budgeting
• Improve safety nets and food security interventions
• Understand climate change vs. natural variability vs. non-climatic changes to inform long-term planning
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From to Weather to Climate: Seamless Early Warning > Early Action
HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES …
WEATHER CLIMATE
• Tillage
• Sowing
• Irriga.on
• Crop protec.on
• Harvest
• Changing farming or livelihood system
• Major capital investment
• Migra.on
• Family succession
• Land alloca.on
• Crop selec.on
• Household labor alloca.on, seasonal migra.on
• Technology selec.on
• Financing for inputs
• Contract farming
• Depends on time horizon of decision
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From to Weather to Climate: Seamless Early Warning > Early Action
HOURS DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES …
WEATHER CLIMATE
• Depends on time horizon of decision
• Generalizations about increasing lead time:
• Decisions more context- and farmer-specific
• Information becomes more uncertain, more complex
• Therefore the scope of services needed increases
• Climate services more than an extension of weather services
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Investing in Climate Services
Message 2: The right investment, leveraging other efforts, can bring relevant climate
services to smallholder farmers – at scale
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What other “soft investments” will be needed? • Salience: tailoring content, scale, format, lead-time to farm
decision-making
• Legitimacy: giving farmers an effective voice in design and delivery
• Access: providing timely access to remote rural communities with marginal infrastructure
• Equity: ensuring that women, poor, socially marginalized benefit
• Integration: climate services as part of a larger package of support
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What else is needed? Institutional arrangements
• Limitations of supply-driven climate services
CLIMATE SERVICE
NMS (climate)
User (farmer)
INFORMATION
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CLIMATE SERVICE
NMS (climate)
User (farmer)
VALUE-ADDED INFORMATION
NARES (agriculture) PARTNERSHIP
What else is needed? Institutional arrangements
• Limitations of supply-driven climate services
• Expand the boundary to agricultural research and development organizations
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What else is needed? Institutional arrangements
• Limitations of supply-driven climate services
• Expand the boundary to agricultural research and development organizations
• Expand the boundaries to give farmers effective voice
CLIMATE SERVICE
NMS (climate)
Co-‐owner (farmer)
NARES (agriculture) PARTNERSHIP
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CCAFS climate services experience
Message 3: CCAFS work to bring climate services to smallholder
agriculture is an available resource.
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Piloting at Climate Smart Villages
• Learning laboratory
• Improved information design
• Workshop process
• Evidence of what works
• Demand for scaling up
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Learning from national agrometeorology programs
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Tackling gender and social equity
• Women disadvantaged when scaling up climate services. Answering:
• Why?
• How to overcome?
• Gender challenges incorporated into training for intermediaries
• Climate services a proxy for “climate-smart” services for farmers
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Training for agricultural extension, intermediaries
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• M&E protocol to measure added-value of climate services projects to farmer communities
• Good practice guidance: • Baseline collection
• Ongoing assessment for learning • End of project impact assessment
• Locally-relevant tool • Gender responsive
Evaluating impact
Objectives of Assessment: 1. Inform design of new climate services."2. Identify current gaps in effective climate
service delivery for farmers."3. Quantify farmer benefit from investment
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Climate information that is useful to farmers
• Historic + monitoring + prediction
• Scale problems • Challenges that developing
country NMS face: • Sparse historic observations
• Data policy, incentives • Human capacity
• Bringing climate science to farmer needs
?
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Climate information that is useful to farmers
• ENACTS (Enhancing National Climate Services): • Started in Ethiopia (IRI, U.
Reading, NMA, CCAFS)
• Satellite + station, 10 km grid, 31 year complete record
• Data Library platform to build “maproom” products from data
• Owned, implemented by NMS
• Generating information products useful for farmers
STATION
BLENDED
SATELLITE
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Enables NMS to customize, generate and disseminate locally relevant climate information without over-taxing limited human resources.
Transforming how African NMS do business.
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How to reach millions of farmers?
• Address climate information supply, communication, use bottlenecks in parallel
• Improving information supply • Low-hanging fruit for farmer-relevant climate information (e.g.,
ENACTS) • Caution about investing in observing infrastructure alone
• Two-fold path to communication capacity: • Equip organizations that already reach farmers with other
services (e.g., agricultural extension, development NGOs, …) • ICT and media – particularly for simpler, shorter-lead information
• Institutional coordination mechanisms • Leverage broader climate services community
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How to reach millions of farmers?
World Vision-Tanzania • Serves ~1 M farmers +
pastoralists in Tanzania • Addressing key bottlenecks:
• Capacity of TMA to provide farmer-relevant information
• World Vision human and ICT infrastructure
• Climate communication training for WV and extension
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How to reach millions of farmers?
World Vision-Tanzania • Serves ~1 M farmers +
pastoralists in Tanzania • Addressing key bottlenecks:
• Capacity of TMA to provide farmer-relevant information
• WV human and ICT infrastructure
• Climate communication training for WV and extension
GFCS in Tanzania, Malawi • UN global process • National Framework process
to engage across government
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What CCAFS can bring you?
• “Go-to place” for good practices, tools, methods, lessons to inform investments and guide design • Connecting climate services to agricultural development
• Reaching “the last mile”
• Partner agricultural research with centers of excellence on climate science and services • UN Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS)
• Climate Services Partnership (CSP)
• Regional climate centers
• CCAFS Theme 2 hosted by IRI
• …
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Reaching Millions of Farmers with Climate Services: Mission Possible • The time is right for climate services. • CCAFS aims to support partners to scale up relevant
climate services for millions of farmers • New CCAFS Flagship 2: Climate Services and Climate-
Informed Safety Nets expands collaboration opportunity http://ccafs.cgiar.org/call-concept-notes-ccafs-flagships#.UqsFVvZByKc
For more informa+on, contact: Jim Hansen, CCAFS Flagship 2 Leader [email protected] Arame Tall, Climate Services Coordinator [email protected]
Women Farmers in Amtrar, Himachal Pradesh (India), benefi.ng from agromet advisories. A. Tall, CCAFS