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CLIMATE RISK MANGEMENT IN WEST AFRICA
communicating probabilistic seasonal forecasting to
improve farmers’ management decision in Kaffrine, Senegal
Ousmane Ndiaye, ANACIMRobert Zougmoré, CCAFS
Burkina, flooding 2009, courtesy by Guillaume
“ The impact of climate change will fall disproportionately on
the world’’’’s poorest countries, many of them here in Africa. Poor people already live on the front lines of pollution, disaster,
and the degradation of resources and land. For them,
adaptation is a matter of sheer survival ”Kofi Annan
CLIMATE IMPACTS
� Rain-fed agriculture : shift in seasonality, total, onset, distribution (food security, population)
� climate related disease : vector born diseases and water related diseases
� hydropower management : dam, river flow,
� flood management in a rapid and unplanned urbanization
Climate information for development
� Risk associated with climate variability
� Better management using climate information
� Reduce vulnerability : poverty, health, hunger, …
� Learning process : decision making tool
Many efforts made on climate research
PRES-AO (11)
GHACOF (22)
PRES-AC (3)
SARCOF (11)
PRESANOR
Climate Information for Public Health Summer Institute, IRI, June 2009
EXAMPLE OF CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
IN KAFFRINE, SENEGAL
Building a team of stakeholders:
multi-disciplinary approach
� Ministry of agriculture extensions (SDDR, 5 participants)
� Volunteers from World Vision (WV, 5)
� Agricultural advisers (ANCAR, 5)
� National agricultural research institute (ISRA, 1)
� National Farmers Union (Japandoo, 15)
� Organization of women producers (3)
� Peanuts-Seed producers Cooperation 2)
� Senegalese National Weather Agency (ANAMS, 5)
� Individual farmers (13)
Building trust for a long partnership
Building on local knowledge:
High humidity and high temperatures
can explain some of their indicators �
“Stronger monsoon”
« When the wind is changingdirection to fetch the rain »
Establishing common ground :
Doing quite the same thing BUT
Better observing system
More reliable storage capacity (use of
numbers, maps, computers, …)
SETTING THE STAGE
Using historical forecast (memory):
Identify wet and dry years
Introduce normal year
Probability shift toward category : RISK
Link to the crop, harvest
Strategies and decision :
team work : farmers, climatologist, World Vision, Agriculture expert, sociologist
“Knowledge should precede action”
farmer in kaffrine
TRAINING AND DISCUSSIONS
TALKING THE SAME LANGUAGE :
“WHAT 1 MM OF RAIN MEANS”
WHAT WOULD YOU DO DIFFERENTLY IF
YOU’VE FORSEEN A DRY YEAR
• Crop requiring less water• Short-cycle variety• Bet on the lowest rainfall
threshold observed in the past• Reduce cultivated area in the
farm
Seasonal forecast communicated to
farmers
EVALUATION : FORECAST AND PROCESS
PARTICIPANTS :33 paysans, services techniques locaux (eaux et forets, ANCAR,
Agriculture, Vision Mondiale, ), organisations paysannes (JAPANDO,
FONGS, …)
THREE GROUPS :1.17 received and used somehow the seasonal forecast
2.03 received but didn’t used it
3.13 never seen or heard of the seasonal forecast
QUESTIONS ASKED1. What made you take a different strategy last year : say anything
2. Problems encountered ?
3. Recommandations ?
� Partnership and trust (social dimension)
� Invest on the long term and multi-disciplinary
(complex and complicate)
� Communication, communication,
communication (content, format, means,
medium)
� Ideally has a package :
�Climate forecast : seasonal and onset
�Opportunity : access to fund (wet forecast)
�Alternative : index insurance (dry forecast)
WHAT WE LEARNT
THANK YOU