Can Crop Models be Helpful for Understanding Climate Change Impact at the Landscape Level?

Lessons Learned from Considering the Kenya Data from “East African Agriculture and Climate Change”

Presentation for the Global Landscape Forum, Warsaw, PolandNovember 16, 2013

Timothy ThomasResearch Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

East African Agriculture and Climate Change

Available at IFPRI.org after December 9. West Africa and Southern Africa available now.

Approach and Purpose of 3 Books

• Use crop models together with climate models to discover the direct yield effect

• Use IMPACT, a global model of food and agriculture to incorporate climate change effects, along with the effects of population growth, GDP growth, and technological change

• Contextual results to work within the institutional setting of each country

• Analysis that policymakers, researchers, and donors might use

Our Crop Model Work

• Divided each country into 10 km by 10 km squares

• Took soils and climate data in each square, and evaluated yields in 2000 and 2050

• Crops evaluated were maize, rice, wheat, soybeans, groundnuts, and soybeans

• Did this for both rainfed and irrigated• Limited analysis to in and near where already

done

National to Sub-national

• Since we have geographically disaggregated results, could they be helpful in smaller areas, perhaps provinces or districts or some other natural way of defining an area?

• That is what we hope to consider today

Defining a Landscapes Approach

• A conceptual framework that provides a structured way of assessing geographical spaces of interest as well as the impacts of interventions into these spaces.

• Offers solutions in areas where land uses compete with environmental and biodiversity goals.

• Emphasizes processes instead of projects. • Focuses on adaptive management, stakeholder

involvement, multifunctionality and resilience.• Sensitive to multiple scales – from fields on farms to

forests to global markets – and the synergies, feedback processes, interactions and time lags between these scales.

Challenges of a Landscape Approach

• Choosing and defining the geographic boundaries (administrative vs natural)

• Choosing objectives and the desired balance between objectives

• Finding experts that can manage multiple disciplines

How Might Our Analysis Help?

• “Stakeholder involvement” requirement suggests that what we do is not a landscapes approach

• Also, real landscapes approach would have more precise information on the region, not using global datasets, but surveys and experts

• BUT, what if we wanted to select an area in which to intervene?

• Our analysis might help narrow the choice AND it might help identify critical issues

Annual Rainfall, mm, 1950-2000

Climate Change 2000-2050: Rainfall

Model predictions for A1B scenario and 4 AR4 GCMs: CNRM (top left); CSIRO (top right); ECHAM (bottom left; and MIROC (bottom right).

Temperature (0C), 1950-2000

Climate Change 2000-2050: Daily Maximum Temperature in Warm Month

Model predictions for A1B scenario and 4 AR4 GCMs: CNRM (top left); CSIRO (top right); ECHAM (bottom left; and MIROC (bottom right).

Harvested Area of Main Crops

Cultivated areas (SPAM)

Rainfed maize Rainfed wheat Irrigated rice

Rainfed sorghum Rainfed potatoes Rainfed millet

Yield Change for Rainfed Maize under Climate Change, 2000-2050, CNRM A1B

Yield Change for Rainfed Maize under Multiple Climate Scenarios, 2000-2050

Area Selected for Landscapes Example

Elevation, GLOBE

Population per square kilometer

Protected Areas, 2009, WDPA

Recommendations for Kenya

From our little example here:• Be prepared in legal framework and

personnel to minimize encroachment of protected areas

• Evaluate whether slopes are too steep for cultivation and consider policies encouraging agroforestry

• Ensure sufficient laws for settling new line, and selling or subdividing existing land

Broader Conclusions for Landscapes

• This pixel approach can be useful to guide and inform researchers, donor, policymakers, and NGOs in prioritizing landscapes

• Also useful in identifying potential issues to be dealt with – both positive and negative

• Pixels approach does not make for a landscape approach by itself