UNITED NATIONS

UNIVERSITYInstitute for Environment

and Human Security (UNU-EHS)

Dr. Koko Warner

Section Head

Environmental Migration, Social Resilience, and Adaptation (EMSVA)

United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS)

warner@ehs.unu.edu

www.ehs.unu.edu

Building climate change resilience in mountains: evidence

from Bhutan, Guatemala, Nepal, Peru and Tanzania

Building Climate Change Resilience in Mountains - Global Landscapes Forum session

Warsaw, Saturday 16 November 2013

1. Evidence of climate change-related loss and damage

when people face constraints and limits to adaptation and

empirical results from Bhutan and Nepal

2. Rainfall variability, food and livelihood security and

migration: “Where the Rain Falls” (Rainfalls) Project and

empirical results from Guatemala, Peru and Tanzania

3. Conclusions and reflections for policymakers

Presentation outline

The costs of adaptation in Punakha District

Climatic stressor: Changing monsoon patterns: Less rainfall and later

onset

Impact on livelihoods: Reduced water availability for rice

cultivation: impact on food security and income

Adaptation: Adjustments to irrigation practices and access to water,

changes in crop mix, from two to one harvest a year, buying pumps

Loss and Damage: For 87% of survey respondents, the measures are

not enough and/or entail extra costs that could not be regained

Loss and damage results in Bhutan

Preventive and coping measures not enough to avoid

loss and damage from flooding in Udayapur District

Climatic stressor: Increasingly severe flood events

Impact on livelihoods: Crops washed away, damage to houses and

properties, high food prices in the aftermath of floods

Coping / adaptation: Pro-active and reactive; individual and

collective. Examples: construction of physical barriers; livelihood

diversification; sale of assets to buy food.

Loss and Damage:

For 77% of survey respondents, the measures were not enough;

Main adaptation constraint; lack of financial resources

Much time and efforts spent on adaptation measures

Loss and damage results in Nepal

Where the Rain Falls:

Rainfall Variability, Food and Livelihood Security, and Migration

CAR

Research site Main Findings

Guatemala Western Highlands (CabricánMunicipality)

• Populations risk becoming trapped :• Profitability of the main livelihood diversification opportunity (weaving) is decreasing• Migration to the US (main migration destination) is becoming too expensive and risky• Labour demand in the Southern Coastline (second main migration destination) is decreasing

Northern Tanzania (Same District, Kilimanjaro Region)

• Altitude matters: • Human mobility less in highlands (higher precipitation and remoteness) as compared to lowlands (dryer and closeness to cities).• Other intervening factors affecting human mobility along different altitudes (profession, age, gender, education)

Results of case studies in mountains

The key to climate change resilience in mountains is access to livelihood

diversification opportunities (both in situ and through migration)

Research site Main Findings

Peru Central Highlands(Huancayo Province)

• Altitude and access to urban economic opportunities shape livelihood options and migration strategies (daily mobility to nearby city of Huancayo at lower altitude, long-term migration at higher altitude)• Even in complex rural-urban livelihoods systems, climatic and environmental conditions are still relevant for household resilience

Results of case studies in mountains

The key to climate change resilience in mountains is access to livelihood

diversification opportunities (both in situ and through migration)

Glacier recession and “peak water“ in the Cordillera Blanca, Peru

Basin level versus sub-catchment level

(Bury et al. 2012)

1982

1987

1997

2004

Nearly 100% of randomly sampled households in the valley reported glacier recession, changing precipitation patterns, and drying and disappearing water sources (Bury 2011).

*Switch from glacier-fed to rainfed agriculture

Different demographic structure in phase 4 watersheds

Thank you.

warner@ehs.unu.edu

wrathall@ehs.unu.edu

www.ehs.unu.edu

http://wheretherainfalls.org

http://lossanddamage.net