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Changing Climate, Changing Weather, Changing Transport
BIVEC conference May 30-31, Luxembourg
Martin DijstFaculty of Geosciences
Utrecht University
Abrupt climate changes
• Abrupt climate changes: takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that human or natural systems have difficulty adapting to it.
Abrupt and adverse weather changes
Climate zones world
Climate zones Europe
Microclimate
• Climatic condition in relatively small area: street, square, neighbourhood, city….
• Depends on– Location in specific climate zone– Topography– Distance to water– Elements of built environment– Human activities– Etc.
Exposure
Outline
• Climate change and changes in travel NL-2050
• Measurement of weather parameters• Weather, perceptions and emotions• Planning perspectives• Conclusions and discussion
CESAR
Climate and Environmental change and Sustainable Accessibility of the Randstad
http://www.nwo.nl/en/research-and-results/research-projects/02/2300156402.html
Challenges CESAR I
To unravel the complex relationships between the spatial configuration of land uses and infrastructures, meteorological processes and behavioural decisions concerning mobility patterns and their use in PSS.
Challenges CESAR II
To develop effective knowledge transfer mechanisms and improve participative planning and spatial governance to actively support the use of PSS for strategic spatial planning processes.
Climate change NL-2050
Temperature change I
Temperature change II
Seasonal projections 2050
Spring
-Warmer-Overall wetter
Autumn
-Warmer-Rain falls over fewer days
Winter
-Milder-Overall wetter
-Heavier precipitation
Summer
-Hotter-Longer dry periods
-Heavier rain showers
• Selection of seasons within the last decade representing current climate
• Selection of seasons within the last decade representing projected 2050 climate
• Analyzing mobility patterns in these selected seasons for the Randstad
• Dutch National Travel Survey
Methodology
Results• Overall: increased attractiveness of cycling and decrease of the car• Winter(milder and wetter): growth in use of cycling and walking• Summer (hotter, drier and extreme precipitation): more car and less use of active modes• Shoulder seasons: contrasting results
Percent changes in number of trips per person per day for different activity types (2050 compared to present)
Results activity types
Measurement weAther parameters
Panel study Rotterdam
Observed weather conditions
Air temperature
The mean radiant temperature
• The mean radiant temperature sums up all short-wave radiation fluxes (direct, diffuse and reflected) and long-wave radiation fluxes (emitted) from the surroundings to which the human body is exposed to
• The main meteorological parameter influencing the human energy balance and the thermal comfort
Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET)
Clear, hot and calm summer day
Cloudy and calm autumn day
Weather change: from clear and calm to cloudy and windy
- Tmrt is significantly higher than the Ta (+30˚C)
- Tmrt is higher than the Ta (+15˚C)
- Tmrt explains much of the daily variations in how we perceive the thermal conditions (PET)
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Temperatures and daily cycling duration
Temperatures and mortality
• Models using mean radiant temperature predict an overall much better fit with mortality in all ages than models using air temperature
Weather, perceptions and emotions
Temperature and happiness
Precipitation and happiness
Wind speed and happiness
Wind speed and fear
Some Planning perspectives
Urban heat island
Esp. over night built-up areas are significantly warmer than surrounding rural areas
Surface geometry
Source: Thorsson
Vegetation I
Vegetation II
Source: Thorsson
Planning Support System
• Developing and testing multidimensional framework
• Aims of PSS• Improving planning process• Improving outcomes
• Experimental tests of Urban Strategy (US)
Conclusions and discussion
• Abrupt and adverse weather changes• Gradual and subtle changes in weather
conditions– Changes in lifestyles and related activity and
travel behaviour– Changes in population composition of cities
• Responding to climate change is not only matter of infrastructural and technological innovation but complex process of societal transformations (LERU, 2013)
