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Searching for Bin Laden:The Use of Intelligence in the War on Terror
or
How NOT to Spend the Taxpayers’ Treasure
Hackers on Planet Earth (HOPE) 6
Robert David Steele
Updated 20 July 2006
This Briefing is Online
• This briefing is online, at: http://www.oss.net/WAC
• It should also be on your website locally.• Planned words are visible in Notes format.• Other key references online include:• http://www.oss.net/BASIC• http://www.oss.net/TERMS• http://www.oss.net/IO • http://www.oss.net/REFLECTIONS
We’re in a Six-Front 100-Year War of Our Own Making.
America is losing/has lost the moral high ground.
Policy/Threats
Poverty
Disease
Ecology
State War
Civil War
Genocide
Oth. Atroc.
Proliferation
Terrorism
Trans. Crime
Debt
Economy
EducationEnergy
Diplom
acy
Family
Imm
igrationJustice
RevenueSecurity
Soc. Sec.W
ater
For each Al Qaeda $1, US Spends $500K. Badly. We can do this forever. Any Questions?
Policy/Threats
Poverty
Disease
Ecology
State War
Civil War
Genocide
Oth. Atroc.
Proliferation
Terrorism
Trans. Crime
Debt
Economy
EducationEnergy
Diplom
acy
Family
Imm
igrationJustice
RevenueSecurity
Soc. Sec.W
aterBig Dogs
Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Iran
Russia
Venezuela
Wild Cards
In Grand Strategy terms, Al Qaeda shrinks to zip.
Policy/Threats
Poverty
Disease
Ecology
State War
Civil War
Genocide
Oth. Atroc.
Proliferation
Terrorism
Trans. Crime
Debt
Economy
EducationEnergy
Diplom
acy
Family
Imm
igrationJustice
RevenueSecurity
Soc. Sec.W
ater
Can't Fix Stupid!
Big Dogs
Brazil
China
India
Indonesia
Iran
Russia
Venezuela
Wild Cards
From left : Larry the Cable Guy , Bill Engvall , Jeff Foxworthy and Ron White.
Plan for the Brief
• Focused only on National Security Budget
• Initial Focus on $60B/Year Spent by IC
• Then Focus on $600B/Year Spent by DoD
• Review Books on Threats and Strategy
• Discuss Needed Reforms in America
• Conclude with Hope for the Future
National Security Writ Small
• Department of Defense - $600B/Year– Buys heavy metal military ill-suited to reality
• Department of State – – Buys Embassy fortresses and little else
• Department of Justice – – Buys heavy-handed ill-focused FBI & suits
• Department of Homeland Security – – Buys ill-directed hand-outs and little security
National Security Writ Large
• Nurture and use all sources of power• Educated and engaged citizenry• Competent intelligence
– Universal coverage (all countries & topics)– 24/7 (real time versus one-year “studies”)– All languages
• Morally sound diplomacy not ideological• Morally sound capitalism not predatory• Balanced defense (four threat types)• Coherent homeland security (engaged citizenry)• Balanced budget, don’t import poverty, export jobs
Digital Analog Oral/Unpublished
EnglishLanguage
ForeignLanguages*
*31 predominant languages, over 3,000 distinct languages in all.
NSA FBIS UN/STATE
Cascading Deficiencies:1) Don’t even try to access most information2) Can’t process hard-copy into digital3) Can’t translate most of what we collect
CIA/DO
NRO
Global Intelligence FailureBreakdown in Collection and Understanding
50% Less Costly
Mor
e S
atis
fyin
g
SIGINT
OSINT
0% 50%
HUMINT
IMINT
MASINT
STATE
Does Not Exist
Global Processing FailureBreakdown in Exploitation, Dissemination
Threat #1: Poverty 95%Threat #2: Infectious Disease 99%Threat #3: Environmental Degradation 90%Threat #4: Inter-State Conflict 75%Threat #5 Civil War 80%Threat #6: Genocide 95%Threat #7: Other Large-Scale Atrocities 95%Threat #8: Nuclear, bio-chemical weapons 75%Threat #9: Terrorism 80%Threat #10: Transnational organized crime 80%
Average Importance of “OSINT” 86%
Threats vs. Sources
HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT
ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS
OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION
OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE
5% of cost 80% of value
95% of cost 20% of value
Secret Intelligence Misses 80% of the Relevant Information!
Baseball AnalogyHarnessing the Power of the Crowd
OSINT
HUMINT
SIGINT
IMINT
MASINT
ADDNI/OS & OSS CEO
ADDNI/OS View of OSINT OSS CEO View of OSINT
OSINT
Humint Sigint
MasintImint
FI
Hu
min
t
Sigin
t
Imin
t
Masin
t
Osin
t
OSINT is both a supporting discipline, and an all-source discipline.
New Craft of Intelligence
I
Lessons of History
II
Global Coverage
III
National Intelligence
IV
Spies & Secrecy
China, Islam, Ethnic, Etc.
Cost-Sharing with Others--Shared Early Warning
Narrowly focused!
Harness distributed intelligence of Nation
Focus of Global Effort
Strategic Forecasting10% Need, 40% Cost
Primary Research & Experts on Demand20% Need, 30% Cost
Help Desk (Tell Me More Right Now)30% Need, 20% Cost
Daily/Weekly Reports40% Need, 10% Cost
Shared Among Tribes
Partial Sharing
Tribal Secret
Top Secret
OPG VPN
Weekly Review
Expert Forum
Distance Learning
Virtual Library
Shared Calendar
Virtual Budget
Shared 24/7 Plot
Shared Rolodex
Creating the World Brain:Web-Based Virtual Intelligence Teams
Real vs. False Budget
Source: http://www.warresisters.org/piechart.htm
Policy-Intelligence Failure:Unbalanced Instruments of Power
Too much of:• Military heavy metal• Secret satellites
Not enough of:• Humans on ground• Human expert analysis• Technical processing• State & local intelligence• Public health, water, etc.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
USA Allies Russia China Rogues
Military Diplomacy Home Front
The real budget is the real policy.
Citizens must vote and provide constant oversight if the taxpayer
dollar is to be spent wisely.
Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2002 A. Jongman
Conflict Facts for 200223 LIC+, 79 LIC-, 175 VPC
Ethnic Fault Lines 200018 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today
Source: Dr. Greg Stanton
Water & War
Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53
Hyper-Arid
Sub-Humid
Arid
Semi-Arid
Water Pollution
1
2
34
5
6
Global Threats to Local Survival
*State of the World Atlas (1997), ** Marq de Villier (Water), John Heidenrich and Greg Stanton (Genocide), Michael Klare et al (Resources), all others from PIOOM Map 2002
Complex Emergencies32 Countries
Refugees/Displaced66 Countries
Food Security33 Countries
Child Soldiers41 Countries
Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising
Water Scarcity &Contaminated Water**Ethnic Conflict 18 Genocides Today**
Resource Wars, Energy Waste & Pollution**
Corruption Common80 Countries
Censorship Very High62 Countries
10%
50%
25%
15%
State vs State
State vs Nation
Inter-Ethnic Tribal
Gang Wars, Genocide,Decolonization
Taxpayer Dollars Focused on Just 10% of the Threat
Presidential Trade-Offs$100 million will buy:
1 Small Navy Platform or Ground Unit or
1,000 Potential George Kennan’s or
10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or
1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water or
One day of war over water (or oil)
$1 T/Yr Not Being Leveraged
• Between interest on the debt, unnecessary military systems, unnecessary secret satellites, and a wide variety of subsidies and tax loopholes, we waste $500B/Year.
• For lack of good economic intelligence and counterintelligence, and ethics at the top, we forego $500B a year in corporate tax contributions to revenue, import-export pricing and insurance fraud, and lost revenues from bandwidth and federally-controlled properties.
Policy-Intelligence FailurePublic is Neither Engaged Nor Informed
Why This Matters• Homeland security--”A Nation’s
best defense is an educated citizenry.” (Thomas Jefferson)
• Prosperity--the financial value of ethics, trust, strategic culture
• Global security--the long-term value of public intelligence to multi-cultural policy initiatives, the best pre-emption is moral.
World War III Players
Bacteria
Nations
GangsCitizens
Inc.
Pelton on Ground Truth
• Most government and media sources have not actually had eyes on target and boots in the local mud
• You don’t have to travel to these places to have them affect home front security
• We simply are not grasping essential ground truths
Shawcross on Endless Conflict
• Peace operations are as complex and difficult as war operations
• Humanitarian assistance can create black markets and sustain a conflict
• Good will without strength makes things worse
Kaplan on Frontier of Anarchy
• History, geography, and traveling third class are vital to true understanding
• We are engaged in "a protracted struggle between ourselves and the demons of crime, population pressure, environmental degradation, disease, and culture conflict."
Heidenrich on Genocide
• 15-18 genocides going on today--scores more over time
• Genocide can be forecast and can be prevented
• Indifference is murder• Global force needed
Klare on Resource Wars
• Energy, Water, Timber, and Minerals will be at the heart of future war
• Ethnic conflict and great power disconnects will compound the challenge
• In this light, corporations are now belligerents and must be treated as such
de Villiers on Water
• It is the average person, not the corporation, that does the most damage
• Pollution, dams, irrigation, and acquifer mining are all destroying our environment
• We need a national and global water conservation and replenishment strategy.
Helvarg on Oceans
• Oceans more important than Amazon, should be protected
• Western economic interests are treating oceans as private mines and private cesspools
• Information available from NOAA and UN is not reaching public domain and could help citizen action
Thornton on Industrialized Poison
• Need new paradigm for controlling bio-chemical threats to society, one focused on probability of risk instead of permission to kill pending proven risk
• “Good science” is code for value-free policy that risks citizens’ long-term health for short-term corporate profit
Garrett on Globalized Disease
• Health of our Nation depends on health of other nations
• Insurance and doctors have helped kill public health (prevention) in favor of hospitals and antibiotics
• We have created resistant forms of disease and may not be able to contain epidemics
Gray on Modern Strategy
• Technology is not a substitute for strategy
• War is about getting your way, not about combat
• Time matters--use or lose• Over time strategic
culture is more important than arms or money.
Brzezinski on Grand Strategy
• Europe, Russia, and Eurasian “stans” are the hearth of 21st century opportunity and threat
• Core new players are Turkey and Indonesia
• Iran is more stable, and China less of a threat, that conventional wisdom says
• Geopolitics more important than technology
Kupchan on Failure of Empire
• Strategic cultures resist incoming information and suffer from “adjustment failure”
• Foreign internal instability merits rapid intervention with strong economic incentives
• Failure to intervene early will lead to emergence of aggressors that are difficult to defeat once out of the box.
Shultz et al on Complexity
• “Most policymakers do not fully realize the dynamics of the world we live in.” (Graham Fuller)
• History and culture are vital to security policy
• Non-military operations are as important as military operations at all times
Cimbala on Friction
• Friction is real and is destroying our ability to match ends with means
• We don’t have a strategy; we don’t try to understand the strategies of others; we do not have unity of effort across the diplomatic-defense-justice continuum
Revolutions Not Technical
• Concepts, not technology, are revolutionary
• Best revolutions are actually incremental and simple
• Technology is not a substitute for strategy
• Current & planned arsenal distantly related to real needs
O’Hanlon on Aid Spending
• We spend half as much on aid as do most of the other developed countries
• Foreign aid in its current form is not preventing conflicts
• Best investment world-wide is in education of women, this cascades across issue areas
Oakley on Police Peace Operations
• Failed states present us with a global problem that requires an international law enforcement reserve
• UN police often cannot read or drive a car and do not have doctrine
• Constabulary forces are different from small war forces
Bowden on Manhunts
• Timing is everything--we let the thugs amass billions before we go after them
• We are weak in tactical intelligence against non-traditional (e.g. individual) targets, especially in cities
• It can be done--but is almost impossible to do well if host state is in chaos
Warfare in the Third World
• Subjective factors including pain threshhold determinant
• Training absorption much more important that arms supplies
• Third World combat is both unconventional and never ending…
Third World War
• Spreading insecurity is directly related to protracted conflict among societal groups
• Incompetent interventions make matters much worse
• Violence can be predicted• Once begun, the violent
will not listen to reason...
Clark on Modern War
• White House does not listen to early warning
• Army doesn’t do mountains, tries not to use Apaches etc.
• Air Force doesn’t do strategic mobility, needs 24 hours to redirect TACAIR
• Technology loses to weather, lacks intelligence
Smart Holistic Strategy
• End state must be legitimate governments everywhere
• Ultimate investment is educational, both at home and abroad
• Must do inter-agency holistic planning, apply all the instruments of national power all the time
The Tunnels of Cu Chi
• Never underestimate the enemy
52PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
Tunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers
ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTUREPower, Financial, Comms, Transportation
MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELSOff-base power, down-links, antennas
ECONOMIC BLAHSNo Fly No Spend No Hire
DATACorruption
Public Health
Home Front Weaknesses
10 bombs in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Venezuela will drive price of oil to $200 a barrel
Suicide changes everything…
Suicidal plague carriers….
Etc.
New Strategy: 1 + iii:Need better balance
45% 20% 20% 15%
248B vs. 550B 110B vs 20B 110B vs. 20B 82B vs. 36B
CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME
Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Intelligence
Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol
Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security
1 ii i
Electronic
Reserve
Reserve Environment
Public HealthPeace Navy
Modern Presidential Leadership
PresidentCongress Judiciary
Chief of Staff
Director-General forNational Policy
Director-General forGlobal Strategy
Director-General forNational Intelligence
Director-General forNational Research
Director of ClassifiedIntelligence (DCI)
Chairman, NationalIntelligence Council
Director, Global Knowledge Foundation
Modern Strategic Governance
Director GeneralGlobal Strategy
Deputy DirectorGlobal Strategy
Deputy DirectorResponse Management
Associate Directors• Strategic Council• Leadership Retreats• Global Reserve• Special Projects
Associate Directors• Response Center• Public Liaison• Civilian Reserve• Non-State Actors
Governance Reform
• Coalition Cabinet• Balanced Open Budget• Quality Education• Public Health• Ethics• 7th Generation Issues
– Water– Energy– Information/Education
Electoral Reform
• Voting on week-ends• League of Women
Voters & Debates• Cabinet Choices in
Advance & in Debates• Instant Run-Off• End Gerrymandering• End Corporate Funding
Let’s Get Our Priorities Straight!
• Third, have a strategy to empower the poor, create wealth, and sustain peace & Earth.
First, be strong at home.
Second, be “America the Good” abroad.
A Strong America Through Common Sense
• We must honor our values and stop supporting dictators.
• We must serve the interests of the people rather than corporations.
• We must have balanced national security capabilities.
• We must be fiscally sound.
Questions?
www.oss.net
703.266.6393
Will speak for sushi. Tell others.
