Grandi Impianti Fotovoltaici in Italia

Autorizzazione, Realizzazione e Sfide di Connessione

Roma, Febbraio 2012

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Agendag

Forme di incentivazione in Europa e in ItaliaForme di incentivazione in Europa e in Italia

Prospettive di investimento: cos’è cambiato

Grid Parity come nuovo obiettivo di investimento

Conclusioni

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Grandi Impianti e incentivi: il quadro Europeoil quadro Europeo

Da Gennaio 2012: Da Gennaio 2012: Da Aprile 2012:Da Aprile 2012:Taglio tariffe del 15% per 

impianti >1MWpTaglio tariffe del 15% per 

impianti >1MWp‐ consistente taglio degli incentivi per impianti da 4 a 

250 kWp

‐ consistente taglio degli incentivi per impianti da 4 a 

250 kWp

Da Luglio 2011:Da Luglio 2011:g‐ Ottenimento dell’incentivo tramite asta per impianti oltre 

100 kWp

g‐ Ottenimento dell’incentivo tramite asta per impianti oltre 

100 kWp Maggio 2011:Maggio 2011:‐ Cap annuo per grandi impianti 

al suolo=160 MW‐ Cap annuo per grandi impianti 

al suolo=160 MW

Maggio 2011: Registro Grandi Impianti

Gennaio 2012: ‐Raggiungimento cap di

Maggio 2011: Registro Grandi Impianti

Gennaio 2012: ‐Raggiungimento cap di

Da Gennaio 2012: ‐ sospensione degli incentivi per 

tutti gli impianti FV

Da Gennaio 2012: ‐ sospensione degli incentivi per 

tutti gli impianti FV

‐Raggiungimento cap di spesa (chiusura Registro)‐Stop definitivo impianti su terreno agricolo >1MW

‐Raggiungimento cap di spesa (chiusura Registro)‐Stop definitivo impianti su terreno agricolo >1MW

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tutti gli impianti FVtutti gli impianti FV terreno agricolo >1MW terreno agricolo >1MW 

3

Grandi impianti in Italia

Potenza installata annua grandi impianti

Grandi impianti (1MW+) continuano a crescere considerevolmente tra il 2010 ed 

il 20112000

2500

970 II Sem 2011

Numero annuo grandi impianti1000

1500

4941.095

I Sem 2011

MW 

Numero annuo grandi impianti

0

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1 14 102

494 I Sem 2011

600

700

273 

300

400

500

408 I Sem 2011

II Sem 2011

Num

eroNB: Impianti «Salva Alcoa» pari a circa 

il 68% delle grandi installazioni nel I S 2011 (36% d l 2011)

Fonte: Gse, 2012. Elaborazione dati: Solar Green 0

100

200

1 639

163I Sem 2011NSemestre 2011 (36% del tot. 2011)

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Technology

4

02007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Altri impianti in Italia

Potenza installata annua altri impianti Anche gli impianti di taglia media‐g p gpiccola (<1MW) continuano a crescere rispetto al 2010 ma in misura minore rispetto ai Grandi 6000

7000

8000

3.232 II Sem 2011

Impianti

3000

4000

5000

2.976 4.207 I Sem 2012

MW

Numero annuo altri impianti

0

1000

2000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

86 4171.042

160000

180000

78.563II S 2011

80000

100000

120000

140000

71.249

99.648

93 383

II Sem 2011

umeroNB: Impianti «Salva Alcoa» pari a circa il 

70% delle installazioni <1MW nel I 

Fonte: Gse, 2012. Elaborazione dati: Solar Green 0

20000

40000

60000

7.646

32.012

93.383I Sem 2011

NSemestre 2011 (40% del tot. 2011)

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Technology

5

02007 2008 2009 2010 2011

L’Effetto Salva‐Alcoa

20002000 970

Potenza installata annua grandi impianti

746970

500

1000

1500

2000

1000

1500

2000

4941.095

I Sem 2011

970 II Sem 2011

MW  +420%

+6%Salva Alcoa

1 14 102 494 3490

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

500

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1 14 102

494 I Sem 2011

29744000

6000

4000

6000

80003.232 

II Sem 2011

W

Potenza installata annua altri impianti

+250%

Salva Alcoa ‐25%

86 417 1042 29761233

3232

0

2000

2007 2008 2009 2010 20110

2000

4000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

86 4171.042

2.976 4.207 I Sem 2012

MW

2007 2008 2009 2010 20112007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Fonte: Gse, 2012. Elaborazione dati: Solar Green Technology

L’effetto distorsivo del Salva Alcoa nasconde lo stallo nel I Sem 2011

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Leffetto distorsivo del Salva Alcoa nasconde lo stallo nel I Sem 2011

Grandi impianti in Italia: effetti del IV CE

3500

effetti del IV CETaglia media impianti >1MW (in kWp)

2,00

Taglia media impianti – Trend ‘08‐’11450

2000

2500

3000

0,00

0,50

1,00

1,50

250300350400450

+240%

0

500

1000

1500

‐1,50

‐1,00

‐0,50

2008 2009 2010 I 2011 II 2011100150200 +150%

L t li di d li i i ti 1MW di i i id l t l IIL t li di d li i i ti 1MW di i i id l t l II

02007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Salva AlcoaTotale Grandi Altri

Fonte: Gse, 2012. Elaborazione dati: Solar Green Technology

‐ La taglia media degli impianti <1MW diminuisce considerevolmente nel II Semestre 2011

Grandi impianti in netta controtendenza

‐ La taglia media degli impianti <1MW diminuisce considerevolmente nel II Semestre 2011

Grandi impianti in netta controtendenza‐ Grandi impianti in netta controtendenza

‐ La taglia media dei grandi impianti in Italia rimane relativamente contenuta (≈3 2MW)

‐ Grandi impianti in netta controtendenza

‐ La taglia media dei grandi impianti in Italia rimane relativamente contenuta (≈3 2MW)(≈3,2MW)(≈3,2MW)

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Grandi Impianti e incentivi: In sintesiIn sintesi

EU‐ Severi tagli agli incentivi, specialmente sui grandi impianti

C t i d li i ti i i i ti li ti t tt‐ Concentrazione degli incentivi su impianti realizzati su tetto ancor meglio se per autoconsumo

‐ Impossibilità fattuale di realizzare grandi impianti a partire dal 

ITA

II Semestre 2012 (chiusura registro)

Necessità di spostare l’attenzione dei grandi impianti sulla‐ Necessità di spostare l attenzione dei grandi impianti sulla tariffa omnicomprensiva del 2013 prima del vincolo del Registro

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Registro

8

Agendag

Forme di incentivazione in Europa e in Italia

Prospettive di investimento: cos’è cambiatoProspettive di investimento: cos’è cambiato

Grid Parity come nuovo obiettivo di investimento

Conclusioni

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Grandi impianti e convenienza finanziaria: un esempiofinanziaria: un esempio

Luogo di installazione: LivornoPotenza impianto: 5 MWp

Tipologia: A terraLeva finanziaria: 80/20

Px EPC 2011= 1900€/kWpPx EPC 2011= 2900€/kWp

Hp 2: connessione Febbraio 2012Incentivo 0,156€/kWh

Hp 1: connessione Febbraio 2011Incentivo 0,313€/kWh ‐50%

Tasso Interesse 5% Tasso Interesse 7%

Incentivo 0,156€/kWh

IRR Unlevered 8,56%Payback period impianto (anni) 11,7Equity IRR 13 09%

IRR Unlevered 10,41%Payback period impianto (anni) 9,6Equity IRR 29 41%

, /

55%

‐18%

Equity IRR 13,09%Payback period equity (anni) 7,6DSCR MEDIO 1,19

Equity IRR 29,41%Payback period equity (anni) 3,4DSCR MEDIO 1,44

‐55%

Perdita di appeal del grande impianto FV  come strumento finanziario 

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Convenienza finanziaria:non solo colpa del IV CEnon solo colpa del IV CE…

Andamento dello Spread BTP‐Bund Effetto Italia

Febbraio 2011‐Gennaio 2012 ‐ Aumento tassi di interesse bancari (investitori italiani)

‐ Necessità di Cash Flow più elevati per garantire buon livello di DSCR

+300%

+164% Effetto Estero

EFFETTO SPREAD ‐ Aumento del «rischio paese» percepito (investitori esteri)

‐ Innalzamento della soglia di redditività richiesta dagli investitori 

Fonte: Bloomberg, 2012. Elaborazione dati: Solar Green Technology

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Agendag

Forme di incentivazione in Europa e in Italia

Prospettive di investimento: cos’è cambiato

Grid Parity tra mito e realtàGrid Parity come nuovo obiettivo di investimento

Conclusioni

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Grid parity: possibile per i grandi impianti?possibile per i grandi impianti?

Progressivo abbandono di forme di feed‐in tariff per i grandi impianti

Il nuovo orizzonte di investimento devePossibilità (necessità) di adottare 

forme di incentivazione diverse

investimento deve prescindere dalle logiche di sussidio di 

Ipotesi: accesso dei grandi impianti al i d i C tifi ti V di

gcarattere governativo  

meccanismo dei Certificati Verdi

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Grid parity: Certificati Verdi e Mercato ElettricoCertificati Verdi e Mercato Elettrico

Prezzo Medio Energia sul Mercato Elettrico (€/MWh)

Prezzo di collocamento sul mercato dei CV (€/MWh)

60

80

100

60

80

100

0

20

40

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F10

20

40

ifi i di

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 F1 2011

Fonte: Gme, 2012 ed AEEG. Elaborazione dati: Solar Green Technology

P El tt i ità F i Ri d V di EE

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Px Certificati Verdi 2012= 0,074€/kWh

Px Elettricità Fascia F1= 0,082€/kWh

Ricavo da Vendita EE e CV= 0,156€/kWh

≈

+ =

≈

Incentivo >5MWp impianto a terraI Semestre 2014 0 158€/kWh

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I Semestre 2014 = 0,158€/kWh

14

Grid Parity:Punti salientiPunti salienti 

• Incrementi di efficienza della tecnologia

• Drastica riduzione del Costo di produzione dell’energia FV…                      p g

• …in netta controtendenza rispetto alle fonti energetiche tradizionali

• Cambio di prospettiva: da Investitore a Produttore di Energia• Cambio di prospettiva: da Investitore a Produttore di Energia

• Adeguati strumenti di politica energetica possono salvaguardare la convenienza degli investimenti Large‐Scale

• Necessario creare un meccanismo protetto da instabilità legislative

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Agendag

Forme di incentivazione in Europa e in Italia

Prospettive di investimento: cos’è cambiato

Grid Parity come nuovo obiettivo di investimento

ConclusioniConclusioni

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Conclusioni

I Paesi UE (Italia in testa) scoraggiano la realizzazione diI Paesi UE (Italia in testa) scoraggiano la realizzazione di grandi impianti in un’ottica meramente speculativa

Condizioni legislative e finanziarie premiano il fotovoltaico mirato al soddisfacimento dei fabbisognifotovoltaico mirato al soddisfacimento dei fabbisogni 

energetici

La Grid Parity per grandi impianti è a portata di mano(a condizione di una corretta strutturazione delle logiche(a condizione di una corretta strutturazione delle logiche 

autorizzative e di accesso al mercato delle FER)

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Grazie per l’attenzionep

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