View
2.191
Download
1
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
Presentation on the need for an eco-efficient agriculture in the 21st century, and means by which it can be realised through a landscape approach. Presented by Patrick Lavelle and Andy Jarvis in a CIAT Internal Seminar in Februaru 2010.
Citation preview
Five reasons why the world needs eco-efficient agriculture, and three
examples of it
Patrick Lavelle and Andy JarvisPlus Julian Ramirez, Anton Eitzinger, Emmanuel Zapata, Louis Reymondin, Karolina
Argote, Edward Guevara
Silvia Elena Castaño Enna Diaz Betancourt
Simone Staiger Ana Milena Guerrero Glenn Graham Hyman
Anton Eitzineger
Lilian Patricia Torres
Carlos Nagles Jorge Cardona
Simon Cook
The Oldies
Andy Jarvis Robert Andrade
Natalia Uribe Julián Ramirez
Daniel Jimenez Vanesa Herrera
Nora Castañeda
Mike Salazar
Jhon Ocampo
Hector Favio Tobón
The Youth
Louis Reymondin
Ovidio RiveraElizabeth Barona
Juan Carlos Andrade
Katherin Tehelen
Victor Augusto Lizcano Angelica Ma. Henao Carolina Argote D.
Daniel Amariles
Oriana Carolina Ovalle
And the positively under-age
Emmanuel Zapata
Contents• The five reasons why:
– Population growth– Climate change, agriculture and carbon– Biodiversity conservation– Habitat conversion– Non-eco-efficient development pathways
• The three examples:– Intensive pastures for the Amazon– Eco-efficient fruits for the world– Reconstructed landscapes for the Amazon
Population Growth
60-70% more food by 2050
Message 1
There will be more people per unit of arable land every year
Climate change and carbon demand
Average change in suitability for all crops in 2050s
Greater energy demand….
…..and carbon becomes a commodity, and a profitable one at that
Message 2
Global suitability for agriculture reduces moderately, but problems of
food distribution are exacerbated, and increased demand for land for carbon
Moving more local…
Coffee in Colombia and Central America
Suitability in Cauca
• Significant changes to 2020, drastic changes to 2050
• The Cauca case: reduced coffeee growing area and changes in geographic distribution. Some new opportunities.
MECETA
Adaptation Options
Management
New markets
Alternatives to coffee
Message 3
Locally, some significant upheavals could occur in terms of economies, cultures,
and land-use patterns, with greater demand for land currently not cultivated
Habitat Conversion
Caqueta, Jan 2004 – May 2009Date
Colombia – Rio Caquetá
Cumulative detections in hectares
020000400006000080000
100000120000140000160000180000200000
1/1/
2004
4/1/
2004
7/1/
2004
10/1
/200
4
1/1/
2005
4/1/
2005
7/1/
2005
10/1
/200
5
1/1/
2006
4/1/
2006
7/1/
2006
10/1
/200
6
1/1/
2007
4/1/
2007
7/1/
2007
10/1
/200
7
1/1/
2008
4/1/
2008
7/1/
2008
10/1
/200
8
1/1/
2009
4/1/
2009
Time
Hec
tare
s
Area de Cambio3’310.198 ha/año
De los cuales 2.774.227Ha/año
corresponde a Brasil (84%) y 419.603Ha/año
a Bolivia (13%).
Detección en la Amazonía
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
% Deforestacion
Bolivia
Brazil
Colombia
Peru
Guyana Fran.
Venezuela
Surinam
Guyana
Ecuador
Tiempo
Are
a D
efo
rest
ada/
Are
a A
nal
izad
a
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009-0.05%
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%% Deforestacion
Colombia
Peru
Guyana Fran.
Venezuela
Surinam
Guyana
Ecuador
Tiempo
Are
a D
efo
rest
ada/
Are
a A
nal
izad
a
Detección en la Amazonía
Message 4
Habitat conversion is going on unchecked, especially in Latin America, resulting in
the loss of biodiversity and essential ecosystem services
The pressures on ecosystem services
Distribution of protected areas• Covering 13.8% of the total global surface (3.8%
international, 10% national)• Holding a great amount of biodiversity• Generating water, carbon and other ecosystem services
Results: protected areas per region
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Maximum hotspot overall
Ma
xim
um
ho
tsp
ot
wit
hin
PA
s Complete representativeness
Average representativeness
UK
World
Mexico
US
South AfricaNorth Africa
Middle eastSaudi Arabia
West Africa
Brazil
Current extent of in situ conservation
Global biodiversity currently well conserved
CURRENT
Results: Current and future predicted species richness
Results: changes in species richness• Null migration: losses everywhere• Unlimited migration: a new distribution of
global biodiversity• Protected areas no longer in the right places
Nature conservation in the Amazon
Climate-stable refugia: Protected areas
Climate-stable refugia:
Restoration
Planeando estrategias de adaptacion
Corridors through agriculture to enable movement of biodiversity
No future for biodiversity: Production
Message 5There will be greater pressure on land
resources for multiple uses, as currently non-arable land becomes arable, as
demands increase for carbon, and as we face massive biodiversity loss
Non-eco efficient development trajectories
Message 6
Current development trajectories in developing countries not environmentally sustainable in long
term, and will come under spotlight eventually
In conclusion….
• Population growth• Climate change challenges• Biodiversity loss• Habitat conversion• Non-eco-efficient
development pathways
• More food• Under increasingly
difficult social and physical conditions
• Less land• Without losing more
natural habitats• With low energy inputs
Policy is only a means to an end….
…..we need enabling policies to stimulate
change on the ground
Intensive pastures for the Amazon
Eco-efficient fruit productionA win-win so that everyone is happy
Multiple-benefits:•Carbon storage•Income generation•Food production
Eco efficient landscapesthe field approach
The AMAZ Team:Patrick LAVELLE, Xavier ARNAULD de SARTRE, Johan OSZWALD, Elena VELASQUEZ, Michel GRIMALDI, Valery GOND, Pilar HURTADO, Iran VEIGA, Edward GUEVARA, Alexander FEIJOO, Tupac OTERO, Patricia CHACON, Bertha RAMIREZ , Oscar VILLANUEVA, Gamaliel RODRIGUEZ, Jaime VELASQUEZ, Alexander VASQUEZ, Marlucia MARTINS, Erika GORDILLO, Luz Elena MORENO, Thibaud DECAENS, William ASSIS, Thierry DESJARDINS
Produce food
(+70% hasta 2050) Biofuels
ClimateStore C
BiodiversityProcess water
Control erosion and flooding
ECO EFFICIENCY = to optimize production and marketing of ALL Goods and Ecosystem Services
SOIL30% degraded
Being a soil in the 21st century…
Urbanisation
How can we increase eco efficiency??
No monodisciplinar solutions…we need to face complexity…..
QUESUNGUAL system(Centro America)
• improve productions of food and other commodities
• generation of ecosystem services
What does it mean at the farm and landscape scale??
AMAZEcosystem services in deforested Amazonian
landscapes
16 teams from Brazil, Colombia and France60 researchers200 students>1000 farmers and family
The Amazon paradoxe
•In Amazonia, laws do not prevent deforestation
•Mining explotation of Natural Capital does not prevent poverty
How to design applicable public policies???
Tailandia, Para, BrésilMars 2008
Pacaja, Para, BrésilMai 2008
PUBLIC POLICIES
CLIMATE REGULATION
WATERRESOURCES
PRODUCTIONS
LANDSCAPES
NATURALBIODIVERSITY
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
SOILFERTILITY
EducationProductionsystems
InfrastructureCredit
SOCEC
PalmaresMaçaranduba
PacajaTradicional
Silvopastoril
Agrosilvopastoril
PL1 PL2 PL3 M1 M2 M3 Pa1 Pa3 T1 T2 T3 S1 S2 S3 A1 A2 A3Pa2
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
17
3
153 farms 153 farmsYEAR I306
27 farms 27 farmsYEAR II54
BRASILPará
COLOMBIACaqueta
3 landscape windows 3 landscape windows
3 sub windows
SOCIOECO PAYSAGE
BIODIVERSITY ProductionsSoil Ecosystem Services
Sampling protocole
Covariations Matrix among tables of data
14 fully compatible tables of data
BIODIV
0.44
0.400.28
0.35 0.39
SOCIOECO
PAISAJE
SócioDemografia
Estructura Composición
SERVICIOS
BIOMAERA
BIOMRAICESSUELO
PRODUC
Sistema de producción
0.42
Historia parcelas
0.44
0.420.470.37
0.38
0.38
0.30
0.35
0.39
0.36
0.32
MORFO
0.33
BRASIL
GISQ
Mensages from AMAZ• SCALES: LANDSCAPE is the best scale to treat Socioeconomics and the function of natural and agro ecosystems
• MARKETS : Necessity to develop markets and access to towns
• INTENSIFICATION : Systems that are both Productive AND good at producing ES do exist
• PAYMENT FOR ES: Where people get incomes outsideFarm activities, pressure on forest is alleviated.
Eco –Efficiency in AMAZ
• EP: Incomes ($) from farm activities/ha/person working
• QS: soil quality index GISQ (Velasquez et al., 2006)varies from 0.1 to 1.0
EF = EP x QS
Colombian AMAZ sitesIncome : 3.6 M6 ha-1.8 UTEGISQ = 0.9
EF = 0.13
Income : 5.3 M3 ha-1.8 UTEGISQ = 0.5
EF = 0.70
Income : 14.7 M11 ha-1.8 UTEGISQ = 0.4
EF = 0.31Income : 13.8 M17.5 ha-1.8 UTEGISQ = 0.5
EF = 0.13
Income : 9.8 M37.5 ha-0.6 UTEGISQ = 0.4
EF = 0.49
EF = M.P$/ha/person
AGROFORESTRY LANDSCAPE
Indicateur eco efficience prenant en compte le nombre de personnes présentes dans l’EA et les parties
effectivement utilisées des exploitations agricoles
Indicateur eco efficience prenant en compte le nombre de personnes présentes dans l’EA et les parties
effectivement utilisées des exploitations agricoles
Eco efficiency in different landscapes in Colombia (Caqueta)
AGRO
FORESTRY
SYLVO
PASTORALCONVENTIONAL
INC: 11200 $ 105 Ha1.8 personsGISQ 0.54
EF=0.071
INC: 7500 $ 49 Ha2.2 personsGISQ 0.53
EF=0.079
INC: 6600 $ 15 Ha2.0 personsGISQ 0.74
EF=0.13
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.0
Eco efficiency and Payment for Ecosystem Services
• In Caqueta:
• Eco intensification allows • - better income per surface unit :
+400%• - more people employed: +10%• - improved production of soil ES:
+37%• - improved conservation of
biodiversity
• Cost of soil associated ES:
• 305 US$ /ha/yr
Reshaping Lanscape
• Eco intensification in each element of the landscape mosaic (genetic resources+ISFM)
• Increase ‘naturality” in used elements (ex. Tree components)
• Increase connectivity among natural ecosystems (biodiversity coorridors)
• Identify the optimum level of fragmentation and contiguity among different land use systems for different ecosystem services
AMAZ 2030
Reconstruction of eco efficient landscapes in deforested areas of Amazonia in a context of climate
change
Fondo Amazonico
SOCEC, Health, ClimateLandscape, BiodiversityCommoditiesEcosystem Services
Certified ParticipativeIndicators
Payment for ESValue Chain Optimization
DIAGNOSTIC
LANDSCAPEMODELS
LANDSCAPERECONSTRUCTION
MARKETSCommodities + SA POLITICS
INFORMATION
TRAINING
The next step: to rebuild eco efficient landscapes