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Ronald Gruia
Principal Telecom Analyst – Frost & Sullivan
UC, Video Conferencing, Telepresence & Networks – 4G & Beyond
Middletown, March 8th, 2011
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The Future of the Mobile Enterprise Landscape
“At a Glance” Agenda
1. Current State of the Market
2. High Level Technology Overview
3. Future Trends
4. Conclusions
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1. Current State of the Market
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Globalization - The Future of the Firm
• Global firms will look like geographically differentiated network of
capabilities and resources, instead of geographical subsidiaries in the
traditional multinational model
• Each geographical entity will have a strong set of local market facing
capabilities. Some geographical entities will become “global leaders” for
specific products, resources or services, which they will provide to the
entire firm, as well as to external customers.
• The firm as a whole will rely more on partners for non-core activities
and resources – so the core will shrink and the periphery will expand.
Mohan Sawhney
McCormick Tribune Professor of Technology, Northwestern University
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Increased Collaboration Seen as a Key Productivity Driver
“The corporation is undergoing the biggest change in
a century. Due to deep changes in technology,
demographics, business, the economy and the world,
we are entering a new age where people participate
in the economy like never before. This new
participation has reached a tipping point where new
forms of mass collaboration are changing how goods
and services are invented, produced, marketed, and
distributed on a global basis. This change does not
wreck corporate profit. If understood, it presents far-
reaching opportunities for every company and for
every person who gets connected.”
Donald Tapscott“Wikinomics:
How Mass Collaboration Changes Everything”
CEO, New Paradigm
(International Think Tank)
Adjunct Professor of Management, University of Toronto
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The Quest for Improving Enterprise Worker Productivity…
Need to Simplify Communications and Collaboration
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The Unified Conferencing and Collaboration Paradigm
“Less is More”Source: Frost & Sullivan
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It’s a Mobile World
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• Increase the probability of successfully reaching someone right on the first attempt.
• Key enabler that will help reach this goal: presence.
• In a highly mobile enterprise, employees can spend a significant amount of their time away from their desks and UC allows them to be “better connected”.
The Advent of the Mobile Enterprise
At desk
Elsewher
eDesk PersonSoftware Designer
On-Site RoverAdmin. Assistant
Site Wanderer
IT Troubleshooter
Tele Worker Remote Agent
Off-site RoverConsultant
Road WarriorAccount Executive
Global Cruiser
Corporate Executive
On site Off site
25% 25% 25% 25%
90%10%
70% 30%
70%
100%
30%
10% 90%
90% 10%
On the road
At desk
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Employee % Time Spent
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Virtualization, Cloud, Mobility Trends Drive IT Roadmap
• Virtualization Remains Leading Theme; Cloud, Mobility On the Rise
• All aspects of virtualization are the key CIO focus point
• However it’s now shifted beyond the early adopter phase as more
conservative IT organizations are now moving to virtualization and the
cloud (i.e. trying to virtualize and automate core IT and deliver “IT-as-a-
service” to theirs users)
• Goal: shift budgets from 80% support/maintain & 20% new investments to a 60%/40% mix and eventually to 40%/60% with more investment in innovation and new initiatives
• Emerging focus: support “Any Device, Anywhere” and provide mobile
access to corporate systems; “consumerization of IT” or increasing
demands of mobile users with their iPads & smart phones
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Top Communication Trends
1. Primary form of communication moving away from voice to other means
• Instant messaging
• SMS
• Presence
2. Collaborative working
3. High expectation in terms of responsiveness
4. Major form of self expression is evolving
5. Work life balance -> work life blending
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The Advent of IP & Its Impact to Messaging
• Telcos have to act otherwise players like Google and Apple will have an opportunity to deliver compelling end-user experiences via new services and/or handsets
• “Packetization” of voice also threatens operators via other “over-the-top” players such as Skype, which can grab subscribers by first offering LD arbitrage and then extending other value-added services on top of that (e.g. Google (GoogleVoice), Yahoo! and Microsoft)
• Advent of SN (Social Networking) also means additional players to worry about including Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, LinkedIn and a variety of other communities such as FourSquare
• Such players can potentially cannibalize some MOU or VAS revenues away from services such as SMS or mobile IM: many of the portals allow for IM-like chatting capabilities
• Risk that operators could become a “dumb pipe”
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Explosive Mobile Data Growth…
• Explosive growth: 92% CAGR or ~ 26x from 2010 to 2015• Video (e.g. YouTube, DVD, HD) responsible for the lion’s share of the
growth (66% of total mobile data traffic by 2015)• AT&T revealed a a $2B increase in wireless and backhaul spending and an
aggressive fiber backhaul plan (~20k sites per year in 2010/11)• Verizon will spend to have 80% backhaul fiber coverage 3G sites by 2011;
T-Mobile aiming for 75% coverage
Source: AT&T Presentation at the CES, January 2010 Source: Cisco Systems VNI, Jan. 2011
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Unlike voice telephony, the “Value Equation” for video telephony could sometimes yield negative results, such as for instance:
• “Bad Hair” Days• Show me what it is like there…• Suppresses office “multi-tasking” - video exposes activities such as:
• Reading your e-mail• Side band communications with IM• Bio Breaks
• Linking Video Sensing to Automatic Presence is fraught with issues
• But user groups such as teenagers may figure the social details out• Opportunities: avatars, personalized/celebrity greetings, sticky bundles, fun personas for mobile games, integrated experience
Video Telephony: A Word of Caution
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2. High Level Technology Overview
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Defining UC & Its Elements…
Unified communications (UC) describes the cross-platform communication functions enabled by the extension of unified messaging to include real-time voice and data communications.
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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Elements Leveraged by the UC Framework
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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IMS Making a Comeback
• IMS: beneficiary of increased LTE activity (among larger SPs such as Verizon, NTT DoCoMo, TeliaSonera), due to the advent of the 3GPP SAE (System Architecture Evolution), which is the all-IP network behind LTE radio access.
• SAE is the first mobile core network which is by definition compliant with the IMS standard
• A more accelerated pace in LTE/SAE uptake will encourage the adoption of the IMS architecture
• Currently, there are 52 ongoing operator trials for LTE:• 17 commercial LTE networks launched• At least 64 networks anticipated to be in commercial service by YE 2012
• Positive “trickle-down” effect for IMS:• Verizon included IMS as part of its LTE announcement as early as 2009• NTT-AT (Advanced Technology) joined NGN/IMS Forum
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Josef’s moustache and Leonid’s eyebrows represent the same line of hair,
except the latter is vertically shifted upwards…
That sounds a lot like a computer scientist’s solution to a problem: redefine
it to a higher layer of abstraction! (the abstraction in this case is the
“horizontalization” of common functions that can be re-used with IMS).
But What is IMS? - Defining IMS in Layman’s Terms
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IMS Description: IMS (or IP Multimedia Subsystem) is an access, protocol and device agnostic specification that allows the convergence between wireline and wireless network architectures. This framework enables wireline, wireless and cable operators to offer a new generation of rich voice, video and multimedia services across both legacy circuit switched based and new packet switched based networking infrastructures.
Originally a 3GPP standard (included in Release 5 in 2002), IMS has become much more than just a wireless spec, with the IETF and now even Cable Labs using it as a blueprint for an IP multimedia and telephony core network system
IMS establishes an architecture of logical (not physical) entities, relying on SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) for call signaling between entities
The IMS framework represents a layered approach to services, with 3 defined planes: transport, service and control
A More Formal IMS Definition
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IMS: A More Efficient Service Implementation
PSTN
“Stovepipe” Service Model IMS Service Approach
WLANRAN
IP Multimedia Subsystem
. . .
Application Servers
Network Subsystem
Base Station Subsystem
ControlLayer
ApplicationLayer
TransportLayer
AccessLayer
...
...
Multi-service IP Network
Pu
sh to
Tal
kS
ervi
ce
Qo
S
Bill
ing
/ O
SS
Pre
sen
ce
. . .
. . .
. .
Inte
ract
ive
Gam
ing
Ser
vic
e
Qo
S
Bill
ing
/ O
SS
Pre
sen
ce
. . .
. . .
. .
Vid
eoS
trea
min
gS
ervi
ce
Qo
S
Bill
ing
/ O
SS
Pre
sen
ce
. . .
. . .
. .
Billing / OSS
QoS
Presence
Session Managementand control
Common functions are replicated Common functions are reutilized
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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MRFC CONTROL
TRANSPORT
A P P L I C A T I O N
S-CSCF
I--CSCF
Application Server
Server
MRFP
MGCF
BGCF
SCIM
Application Server
Server
Application Server
Server
P-CSCF PDF
HSS
Wireless Network/ WLAN
Internet
PSTN
MG
W IM-MGW
SGF
SEG
MG
W IM-MGW
MG
W IM-MGW
SGSN GGSN
ControlPlane
ApplicationLayer
TransportLayer
Application Servers (AS)
Call Session Control Function (CSCF)
Home Subscriber Server (HSS)
PSTN and IP Networks
Media Gateways
Media Resource Function (MRF)
Applying IMS Architecture to the Enterprise
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ControlPlane
ApplicationLayer
TransportLayer
Home Subscriber Server (HSS)
Application Servers (AS)
PSTN and IP Networks
Media Gateways
Media Resource Function (MRF)
Enterprise Call Management Server
Enterprise Directory
(LDAP)
Audio Bridge
Video MCU
EnterpriseWAN
CarrierMPLS
LegacyPSTN & ISDN
Media Gateways
Call Session Control Function (CSCF)
AccessLayer
Chart 2.5
Fixed Mobile Convergence Market: Dual Mode Handsets (North America), 2006
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2006. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Nokia e60 Nokia e70 Nokia e61
Gtek PWG500
HTC Tornado HTC Wizard HTC PDA 2K Samsung i750UT Starcom VL1
Nokia 6136
Samsung T709
Motorola a910
iMate K-JAMiMate JAMIN
Palm Treo 700W Motorola Q QTEK 8300 QTEK 8310
E28 Hawk
Nokia 9300i Nokia 9500 Nokia N80 Nokia N91 Nokia N92
UT Starcom 6700 Samsung i730
BenQ p50 BenQ p51
QTEK 9100 QTEK 9000Motorola M1000
HP hw6900
Fujitsu-Siemens
T830 T810
Sony Ericsson
P990
Chart 2.5
Fixed Mobile Convergence Market: Dual Mode Handsets (North America), 2006
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2006. Source: Frost & Sullivan
Nokia e60 Nokia e70 Nokia e61
Gtek PWG500
HTC Tornado HTC Wizard HTC PDA 2K Samsung i750UT Starcom VL1
Nokia 6136
Samsung T709
Motorola a910
iMate K-JAMiMate JAMIN
Palm Treo 700W Motorola Q QTEK 8300 QTEK 8310
E28 Hawk
Nokia 9300i Nokia 9500 Nokia N80 Nokia N91 Nokia N92
UT Starcom 6700 Samsung i730
BenQ p50 BenQ p51
QTEK 9100 QTEK 9000Motorola M1000
HP hw6900
Fujitsu-Siemens
T830 T810
Sony Ericsson
P990
Messaging / Presence
Voice, video, andweb conferencing
MobileMulti-media
UnifiedCommunications
Applying IMS Architecture to the Enterprise (Cont’d)
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Almost a one-to-one mapping of the main functions “Horizontalization” can be also achieved in the enterprise Key takeaway:
“Functional decomposition” (carrier world) -> SOA (enterprise world)
Telecom World Enterprise World
Session Control (SIP) Session Control (SIP)
User Interface (Interaction) Personal Communications Manager
Presence User Status (Instant Messenger)
Subscriber Identity Enterprise Directory
Subscriber Charging (User Policy Functions)
Service Provisioning Call Features Configuration Tool
Account Administration System Administration
A Possible Blueprint for the Enterprise?
Functional Mapping of IMS in the Enterprise
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• Common converged platform that can support multiple services in a single consolidated architecture
• Support of various types of mobile messaging: SMS to/from mobile IM, fixed and mobile / Internet messaging (VM/SMS to/from e-mail, VM2MMS, etc.)
• Support for messaging from other services such as social networking, MMS from UGC sites such as YouTube
• Savings: time and effort required to deploy extra VAS; new enablers can be leveraged across all the services; time required for subscriber additions; etc.
SOA-Based Consolidated Framework
Subscriber Data
Enablers (NAB, Presence, Location, etc.)
Shared Components
Common OA&M
SMS MMS IPVMMsg.
RouterService Broker
Converged Messaging Supporting Various Clients
Consolidated “Hub” Architecture Drives OPEX Savings
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3. Future Trends
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Enterprise Call Management / Processing Server: the brains
SIP Application Servers: the value (applications!)
Media Servers: the brawn
General Purpose vs. Application Optimized• General Purpose
• Many different types of applications
• Most require enterprise to build or find third-party applications
• Best for variety at lower scale
• Application Optimized
• Focused on specific application types
• Handle highly intensive, technical applications very well
• Best for focused needs at higher scale
Key New Elements for Enterprise
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The Need to Shorten TTM for New Services
Identify NewApplications
PrototypeRapidly
ConductTrials
Market LaunchModify andAugment
Scale
TTM (Time-To-Market) Needs toBe Drastically Reduced
• “Service velocity” is becoming more and more important for service providers as they also worry about these “at the edge” players such as Google and Apple
• Operators are beginning to achieve some TTM gains via the introduction of an IMS-like converged networks architecture that can enable them to introduce new services quicker and to fail existing ones faster and more cheaply
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The “ITfication” of the Telecom industry: IMS is just another instance of that phenomenon
Vendors will have to focus on their core competencies and know who to partner with
Services can be a backdoor to winning future business
ServicesServices Apps
Apps
Hardware
Today 2015
Hardware
Note: Pie charts are only for illustrative purposes – adapted from a CounterPath presentation
Money Will Be in Software and Services
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Creating a Compelling End-User Experience
• Start simple: threading all message types from a particular user (e.g. e-mails, voice mails, SMS/MMS messages, etc.)
• Implement a rules-based engine that adapts to user preferences • Over time can blend in more enablers to the NAB (adding contextual
presence info, location, etc.)• Utilize the NAB as a launch pad for different messaging applications• Offer smart converged messaging:
User elects:
What to send &
Who to send it to
Operator Cloud
Operator determines the status & equipment of receiver
Voice Mail
SMS
MMS
IM (client or via SN site)
Operator chooses best delivery mechanism for message to be sent
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Can RCS Solve the Client Conundrum?
• Without client devices, the IMS core cannot generate much value• Previously, there were not too many IMS client specs, with a few rare exceptions
(e.g. OMA’s PoC IMS client, used at NTT DoCoMo)• Rich Communication Suite (RCS): consortium spearheaded by the GSMA & created
by the top 5 handset vendors, operators (France Telecom/Orange, Telefonica, TeliaSonera, AT&T, Telecom Italia, Deutsche Telekom, Vodafone, TMN - some joined early, others later) and NEVs (Ericsson, Nokia, ALU)
• Objectives: revitalize IMS market, drive common spec for new apps (presence-enabled address book, enhanced messaging, video telephony, gaming, etc.), stimulate interoperability testing
• An enhanced version of RCS, i.e., RCS-e was announced at the MWC to enable IM, live video sharing and file transfer across any device on any operator (initiative so far has the support of the “big 5” from Europe alongside Bharti, Orascom, SK Telecom and Telenor)
• GSMA still remains committed to original RCS effort (R4 under way)• RCS-e changes the way presence is being tackled (moving from presence server
to dynamic capabilities discovery based on SIP) so it will require a minor adaptation from RCS, requiring 1 month effort for adapting original RCS applications
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Growing Threat from Over-The-Top Players
• Operators believe in a changing of the guard:Old UI champion on the handset market (Nokia) being displaced by AppleOld web cos. frontrunners (Microsoft / Yahoo) being assaulted by Google
• Google regarded as the most potentially disruptive, whereas Apple is also seen as a great innovator
• Operators concerned that IMS/LTE offer a totally centralized service control currently not used by third party app developers
• Under such a scenario, interoperability at the service layer is hard to be obtained despite efforts such as RCS; over-the-top players and their clients can easily bypass this LTE service layer
• Carriers can address this threat by demanding vendors to open up interfaces, solving ahead of time all interworking issues with other operators, and only after that, start deploying new network capabilities
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4. Conclusions
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Evolution of the Business Case for UCE
nd
-use
r V
alu
e C
reat
ion
Tactical Strategic
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• True convergence of voice, video, & data
communication
• Service reliability and availability
• Expandability – scale and scope
• Reduced administrative complexity & cost
• Flexibility to work with solutions from
multiple vendors
• Rapid development of custom
applications
• Ubiquitous access anywhere any time
• Full solution availability
• Proven vendor
• Standards compliance
• Valuable applications
• Expertise in end user experience
• Proven ability to scale
Benefits of IMS for Enterprise Elements to Consider
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The Need for a New Ecosystem to Drive Change
• Operators should better monetize their own assents. embrace a two-
sided business model and focus more on “upstream” customers,
instead of worrying so much about becoming “dumb pipe” providers
Source: Telco 2.0 Blog
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How to Better Monetize the Operator’s Assets
Operator assets: Brand, PSTN numbers Subscriber identity (Name, address, age, devices, etc.) Subscriber data (usage, patterns, history, etc.) Location (motion, context, …) Rich presence Customer relationships Connectivity (for cloud computing ecosystem) Interoperability with legacy services Fine-grained billing systems (sometimes already leveraged for MVNOs)
Implications for SPs: Focus on two-sided model and “upstream” customers Open up interfaces to enable third party development of apps that can
leverage the above assets
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How Carriers Will Face Their Challenges?
• Operators need to consider the role they will want to play in the future, as:
Connectivity providers: leveraging value and controlling “smart pipes”
Communications providers: innovating subscriber communication
Value added service providers: moving up the value chain
• Focus on choke points on the network (e.g. backhaul, core) will force carriers to improve the efficiency of their VAS portfolios, realize CAPEX / OPEX savings and consider new business models
• Threat from over-the-top players such as Google, Apple, and SN portals such as Facebook and Twitter means operators will try to shorten their time-to-market for new services, i.e., service velocity will be a fundamental need
• Operators will try to achieve OPEX savings under a converged infrastructure (horizontalized IMS architecture coupled with a “hub” SOA-based framework to deploy various value added services)
• Given the decoupling of operator traffic and revenue, carriers will look for alternative sources of revenue; in doing so, they will try to monetize their key assets, some of which have been relatively untapped thus far
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Changing the Way Enterprises & SPs Conduct Business
“Introducing new technology alone is neverenough. The big spurts in productivity comewhen a new technology is combined with newways of doing business.”
Thomas Friedman – “The World is Flat”
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Ronald F. Gruia
Program Leader - Emerging Telecoms, Principal Telecom Analyst [email protected] +1-416-490-0493
Twitter: rgruia
Thank You
Q & A Session
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Frost & Sullivan: Leading Growth Consulting & Research Firm with over 40 offices on six continents and more than 50 years of partnership
with Blue Chip firms
42
Today’s Presenter
Ronald Gruia, Principal AnalystFrost & Sullivan
Functional Expertise14 years of telecom industry expertise accumulated at Frost & Sullivan (10 years) and Nortel Networks (4 years). Particular expertise in:
-NGN Transition: LTE (4G), IP Multimedia (IMS) and VoIP applications, services and standards-Telco 2.0: business models, next-gen VAS (Value Added Services), service brokering -The Enterprise of the Future: IP Telephony, WLANs, Unified Communications, Speech, IVR apps
3+ years of power systems experience at Ontario Hydro including areas such as system and capacity planning, energy transmission, BPL (Broadband over Power Lines), reliability, etc.
Industry Expertise -Strong experience base covering telecom and power systems industry:
-U.S. Patent holder: principal inventor of an algorithm optimizing a multimedia application-100+ speaking engagements at telecom conferences and industry shows-Featured columnist at IMS / NGN Magazine; wrote articles for Processor Magazine and TMC.net-Quoted on Business Week, Financial Times, Forbes, Wired, API, Reuters, MarketWatch, etc.-Appearances on CNBC (US), BNN, Report on Business Television and TechTV (Canada), Decision TV (Brazil) and Telecom TV (UK, live from Spain)
