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To develop a scenario sure and easily traceable even for ordinary citizens toward the national challenge target of 80% CO2 reduction by 2050, we first developed a model to calculate the total CO2 emission corresponding to the final consumption and second developed an appropriate technology based scenario consisting of the following consumer oriented sub-scenarios: (1) energy saving through electrification of all transportation, (2) promotion of wood utilization for housing and household energy saving; (3) introduction of renewable energies; and (4) efficient energy utilization of wastes. Applying the scenario to Kyoto that has the similar strategies to our proposed scenarios, we found that about 80% CO2 emission reduction is possible just within the appropriate technology limit with the effect of population reduction and with the potential emission reduction from construction of private and public infrastructures, and that shifting our final consumption mode into low CO2 emission mode has a significant impact. Keywords: CO2 emission reduction, appropriate technologies, local energy strategy, the final consumption
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An Easily Traceable Scenario
for 80% CO2 Emission Reduction in Japan
for Local Energy Strategy Development
Sawako Shigeto (Japan Science and Technology Agency)
Yoshiki Yamagata (National Institute for Environmental Studies)
Masato Hidaka (Pacific Consultants CO., LTD)
Masayuki Horio (Japan Science and Technology Agency)
21-23 April 2010, Singapore
International Conference on Applied Energy
1
Presentation Outline
1. Background and Objective
2. Methodology
3. Discussion
4. Conclusions
2
1. Background
◆Japan’s CO2 emission reduction target
of 80% reduction by 2050 and 25%
reduction by 2020
◆Regional challenges become necessity
◆ 13 Eco-Model Cities for the Low Carbon
Societies are selected and designated
by the government (2008-2009).
◆A Challenge in R&D by JST-RISTEX “Community Based Actions against Global Warming and
Environmental Degradation” R&D Area
3
4
The existing data dose not show the real
“Indirect” emission
◆CO2 from power and steam generation are only
allocated and CO2 emission from residential sector
accounts for only 13%
◆But should be considered
all the CO2 at the final
consumptions
◆Objective: to obtain the
final consumption related
CO2 emission, then we can
see the impact of shifting
our final consumption mode
into low CO2 emission mode Source: GCP Tsukuba International Office
5
Outline of this work
Model calculation of the final consumption
related CO2 emissions
Step1
Proposition of the technology scenarios that
could be appropriate to achieve massive CO2
emission reduction from the final demand side
Step2
Examination of the effect by applying the
scenarios to Kyoto
Step3
Method to determine realistic CO2 data of regional consumption
Household
Expenditure
CO2
emission per
household
× The number of
Household
CO2 emission
from the final
consumption
=
Basic Unit of CO2 emission of expenditure(3EID)
Household
Expenditure
Survey
※Regional level data available
※Only national or prefectural level available Application
of Scenario
6
Step1
Step2
Regional Scenario based on
appropriate technology
(1) All Electric Transportation
(2) Woody Housing and
Household Energy Saving
(3) Renewable Energies
(4) Efficient Energy Utilization of Wastes
7
Step3
8
Case study region: Kyoto
8
◆One of Eco-model cities
40%CO2 emission reduction by 2030,
and 60% by 2050 through the following
strategic actions:
(a)Creation of a pedestrian friendly city;
(b)Formation of low carbon landscape through
recognition of woody culture;
(c)Lifestyle change and technology innovation;
(d)The maximum utilization of renewable
energy and wastes.
Result1: Indirect emission through commodity consumption is significant
(wo/13%→w/45%)
Source: Greenhouse Gas Inventory Office, Japan
Indirect emission
Public and private
infrastructure 9
Real Indirect
emission
1,273 million t-CO2(2005)
10
CO2 emission reduction scenario application to household in Kyoto
Emission groups
CO2 emission in
2005
[kg-CO2/year]
CO2 emission
under the
scenario
[kg-CO2/year]
Reduction
ratio
[%]
Fuel and light 6,043 1,209 80
Transportation and
communication 836 461 50
(Gasoline) (375) (0) (100)
Disposals 116 0 100
Food 1,558 779 50
Others 2,431 1,216 50
11
(1) All electric transportation
Emission groups
CO2 emission
in 2005
[kg-CO2/year]
CO2 emission
under the
scenario
[kg-CO2/year]
Reductio
n ratio
[%]
Fuel and light 6,043 1,209 80
Transportation and
communication 836 461 50
(Gasoline) (375) (0) (100)
Disposals 116 0 100
Food 1,558 779 50
Others 2,431 1,216 50
Total CO2 emission
per household 10,984 3,664 33.4
Towards zero
EV and modal shift from vehicles and trucks to rails
and other electric transport
12
(2)Woody housing and household energy saving
About 67% of land
is forest
Revitalization of domestic
forest industry is a crucial
issue in Japan.
Revitalization of forest
industry
Devastated in the last
several decades
50% CO2
Reduction
+ Energy saving home applicants(15%)
+ Utilization of renewable energy(15%)
= 80% CO2 emission reduction
Source: Woody eco-house guideline(Hino-city, Tokyo)
[Woody eco-house]
13
(3) Renewable energies
One of the highest possibilities of renewable energy introduction by 2050 in Japan estimates:
Electricity:
59% of system power supply and 79% of
dispersed power supply can be provided
by renewable energies
Heat supply:
100% of household heat supply can be
provided by renewable resources
・Hydro
・Geothermal
・Biomass
・Photovoltaics
・Wind
We assume;
◆Scenario (2)
◆50% CO2 emission reduction from goods consumption
・Geothermal
・Biomass
・Solar heat
・Earth thermal
Source: Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies,
“The Year 2050 Renewable Energy Vision” 2008
14
(4)Efficient energy utilization of wastes
Applying integrated waste and utility management,
we assume that the CO2 emission from disposal
Become nearly zero by 2050.
Source: Horio, Shigeto and Shiga, Waste Management (2009)
15
Result2: CO2 emission reduction scenario application to household
Emission groups
CO2 emission in
2005
[kg-CO2/year]
CO2 emission
under the
scenario
[kg-CO2/year]
Reduction
ratio
[%]
Fuel and light 6,043 1,209 80
Transportation and
communication 836 461 50
(Gasoline) (375) (0) (100)
Disposals 116 0 100
Food 1,558 779 50
Others 2,431 1,216 50
Total CO2 emission
per household 10,984 3,664 33.4
Direct Energy
Consumption
Indirect Energy
Consumption
16
Result 2: 80% CO2 emission reduction scenario
16
CO2
emission
per person [kg-CO2/year]
<a>
Population
<b>
Total CO2
emission [t-CO2/year]
<a>*<b>
Reduction
ratio to
2005 [%]
(a) In 2005 4,465 1.47million 6.6 million -
(b) Under Scenarios
(no population change) 1,489 1.47million 2.2million 67
(c) Under Scenarios
(with population
change)
1,489 0.8million 1.2 million 82
(d) With forest carbon
uptake 1,489 0.8million 1.1million 83
Conclusions
We developed a novel approach of calculating the
total CO2 emission corresponding to the final
consumption.
Applying appropriate technology scenarios to Kyoto,
we found that about a 80% CO2 emission reduction is
possible with the potential emission reduction from
construction of private and public infrastructures.
Shifting our final consumption mode into low CO2
emission mode has a significant impact.
Particularly reduction of direct energy consumption
(Fuel & Lights/Transportation & Communications) is the
key for local energy strategy. 17
18
Thank you!
Eco-Model Cities for the Low Carbon
Societies (2008-2009)
19
A Challenge
in Research and Development (R&D)
◆Call for R&D proposals(up to 0.3million $/year)
“Community Based Actions against Global Warming and
Environmental Degradation” R&D Area by JST-RISTEX (Japan Science and Technology Agency/ Research Institute of Science and Technology for
Society)
(FY2008-2013)
P.O.: Prof. Masayuki HORIO
This study: One of outcomes of this R&D area 20
21
(1) All electric transportation
Emission groups
CO2 emission in
2005
[kg-CO2/year]
CO2 emission
under the
scenario
[kg-CO2/year]
Reductio
n ratio
[%]
Fuel and light 6,043 1,209 80
Transportation and
communication 836 461 50
(Gasoline) (375) (0) (100)
Disposals 116 0 100
Food 1,558 779 50
Others 2,431 1,216 50
Total CO2 emission
per household 10,984 3,664 33.4
Towards zero
Modal shift from gasoline vehicles and trucks to EV,
rails and other
22
(2)Woody building and household energy saving
About 67% of
land is forest
Revitalization of domestic
forest industry is a crucial
issue in Japan.
Revitalization of
forest industry
Devastated for the
last several decades
50% CO2
Reduction
+ Energy saving home applicants(15%)
+ Utilization of renewable energy(15%)
= 80% CO2 emission reduction
Source: Woody eco-house guideline(Hino-city, Tokyo)
[Woody eco-house]
23
One of the highest possibilities of renewable energy
introduction by 2050 in Japan estimates:
Electricity:
59% of system power supply and 79% of
dispersed power supply can be provided
by renewable energies
Heat supply:
100% of household heat supply can be
provided by renewable resources
・Hydro
・Geothermal
・Biomass
・Photovoltaics
・Wind
We assume;
◆Scenario (2)
◆50% CO2 emission reduction from goods consumption
・Geothermal
・Biomass
・Solar heat
・Earth thermal
Source: Institute for Sustainable Energy Policies,
“The Year 2050 Renewable Energy Vision” 2008
(3) Renewable energies
24
Applying integrated waste and utility management,
we assume that the CO2 emission from disposal
Become nearly zero by 2050.
Source: Horio, Shigeto and Shiga, Waste Management (2009)
(4)Efficient energy utilization of wastes
25
Result2: CO2 emission reduction scenario application to household
Emission groups
CO2 emission
in 2005
[kg-CO2/year]
CO2 emission
under the
scenario
[kg-CO2/year]
Reduction
ratio
[%]
Fuel and light 6,043 1,209 80
Transportation and
communication 836 461 50
(Gasoline) (375) (0) (100)
Disposals 116 0 100
Food 1,558 779 50
Others 2,431 1,216 50
Total CO2 emission
per household 10,984 3,664 33.4
Direct Energy Consumption
Indirect Energy Consumption
26
Result 2: 80% CO2 emission reduction scenario
26
CO2
emission
per person [kg-CO2/year]
<a>
Population
<b>
Total CO2
emission [t-CO2/year]
<a>*<b>
Reduction
ratio to
2005 [%]
(a) In 2005 4,465 1.47million 6.6 million -
(b) Under Scenarios
(no population
change)
1,489 1.47million 2.2million 67
(c) Under Scenarios
(with population
change)
1,489 0.8million 1.2 million 82
(d) With forest
carbon uptake 1,489 0.8million 1.1million 83
Conclusions
We developed a novel approach of calculating the
total CO2 emission corresponding to the final
consumption.
Applying appropriate technology scenarios to
Kyoto, we found that about a 80% CO2 emission
reduction is possible with the potential emission
reduction from construction of private and public
infrastructures.
Shifting our final consumption mode into low CO2
emission mode has a significant impact.
Particularly reduction of direct energy
consumption (Fuel & Lights/Transportation &
Communications) is the key for local energy strategy. 27