Amazonia:

The Security Agenda

"Climate Change and Security at the Crossroads –

Pathways to Conflict or Cooperation” Kristiansand, Norway

June 21th, 2013

Contents

I. The value of water in the Amazon

II. Threats to water security

III. Defining securities

IV. Methods

V. Results

VI. Discussion: interactions with food, health

and energy security

VII. Policy recommendations

I. The value of Amazonia’s water

The Amazon basin

Largest source of

freshwater on

Earth

~ 6,300 km3 of

water discharged

annually into the

Atlantic ocean

(15-20% of global

freshwater that

flows into the

oceans)

~ 6.4 million sq

km (44% of South

America's surface

area)

The Amazon: contributions to

national productivity and values of exports

39% of hydroelectric energy

41% of cattle

24% of natural gas

US$ 700 million from

soybean (2011)

US$ 3900 million from

natural gas (2011)

37 % of cattle

17 % of natural gas

US$ 7000 million for soybean (2012)

US$ 1600 million for beef (2012)

23 % of oil

24 % of fish

US$ 94 million from

oil - Alto Putumayo

(2000)

35 % of hydroelectric energy

99 % of oil

US$ 196 million for coffee (Amazonas and San Martin) (2011)

US$ 166 million for timber (2011)

73% of oil and liquid natural

gas

22% of hydroelectric energy

14 % of extracted gold

(Madre de Dios)

US$ 8900 million from

oil (2010)

Around 10 million

people in the

Amazon depend

on water for household

consumption,

subsistence food

production,

health, electricity,

river

transportation,

etc.

Amazonia's water and livelihoods

II. Threats to Amazonia’s waters

Human pressures/ increased

demand driving LUC

• Deforestation (forest loss can accelerate CC)

• Expansion of the agricultural frontier

• Extractive activities (e.g. mining, oil and gas

explorations)

Climate extremes

Droughts in 2005, 2010

Affecting ~1.9 million and 3 million km² respectively

US $ 150 million of economic losses in Acre (Brazil)

(2005)

62.000 people affected in the Amazonas (Brazil) (2010)

III. Defining securities

Climate change and its possible

security implications

Climate security: “Protection

from the threat of disease,

hunger, unemployment, crime,

social conflict, political repression

and environmental hazards.”

Climate change: “threat

multiplier”, given its potential to

aggravate the risks posed by

“poverty, weak institutional

capacity, etc. (UNGA 2009).”

The growing security threats of

climate change are now part of

the international multilateral

agenda. A United Nations

Secretary General’ report,

addressed Climate change and

its possible security

implications, raising attention to

the implications that climate

change may have on food

security, human health, increased

human exposure to extreme

events, competition over natural

resources, migration and

displacement and international

conflict.

Water, food, energy and health

security

The capacity of a population to secure sustained access to adequate

and suitable water; depends on physical water availability, socio-

economic factors determining access to water, and the impact of

water-related hazards such as droughts and floods.

All people, at all times, having physical, social and economic access

to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and

food preferences for an active and healthy life (FAO)

Access to a reliable and affordable supply of energy, and is

determined by physical, technical and economic factors. Energy

security is central to development and increasing quality of life.

Protection against threats of food insecurity, emerging diseases and

pandemics, including transborder spread.

IV. Methods (1)

1. Literature review – the state of securities in

the Amazon (including LUC and CC)

2. Assessing water balance, water stress index

and quality (Human footprint index) –

WaterWorld (Mulligan et al. 2010)

3. Assessing current pressures and future

threats to water security - Co$ting Nature

Methods (2)

4. Assessing land use change impacts on water

security

LUC scenario: recent rates up until 2050, where

protected areas are ineffectively managed and cannot

halt deforestation rates in these zones.

ACCEL scenario: recent rates of observed

deforestation were quadrupled but with no deforestation

in protected areas permitted (ie the PAs are effectively

managed).

Methods (3)

5. Assessing impacts of climate change on water

security (WaterWorld and the IPCC A2

scenario)

1st scenario: ensemble mean scenario for the 2050s of all

20 available Global circulation Models (GCMs)

2nd scenario: ensemble mean minus 1 ensemble deviation

(2050s)

3rd scenario: for 2080s to understand longer term water

security and the consistency of projected trends into the

future.

Methods (4)

6. Identifying water security hotspots

7. Discussion of implications of LUC and CC

impacts on food production, energy

generation and health in the region

8. Recommendations for regional cooperation

V. Results and discussions

V. Results and Discussion

Amazonia’s Water Basin

The Amazon boundary (ATCO sensu latissimo), watershed (derived from HydroSHEDS) and

countries. The map also shows tree cover 2000 based on MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields

(Hansen et al., 2006)

LUC impacts more on water quality

than on water quantity

Change in HF index in LUC (left) and ACCEL (right) scenarios for 2050s

Changes in HF index and concessions for

extractive activities

Pixel-scale (left)

and sub-basin

scale (right)

increase in HF

pollution index

resulting from

operationalisation

of 1% of oil

and gas

concessions

Converting only 1% of the oil and gas concession area in Ecuador and

northern Peru to oil production, indicates that this would increase the HF

pollution index by between 0.5 and 2% for all catchments on a

sub-basin level

Changes in HF index and concessions for

extractive activities Pixel-scale (left)

and sub-basin

scale (right)

increase in HF

pollution index

resulting from

operationalisation

of 10% of

mining

concessions

converting 10% of the mining concession area in Ecuador and northern Peru

(only some of which is within the Amazon watershed) to mining, indicates that this

would increase the HF pollution index by between 5 and

10% for many of the upland catchments on a sub-basin level

Climate change: more significant changes in rainfall than

in temperature at the basin level by 2050s and 2080s.

Change in rainfall with AR4 A2 mean of all models 2050s (left), AR4 A2 mean of all (20)

models minus one sd 2050s (middle) and mean of all (20) models 2080s scenarios

Climate Change and changes in water

stress (2050s and 2080s)

Change in water stress with the three scenarios, % of industrial and domestic (blue water)

demand not supplied in months at which supply<demand across the year (not including

future population growth or agriulture change)

2050s 2050s 2080s

Changing water stress index => changes in hydropower potential, multiplier effect on fires and droughts,

affect water quality

Climate Change and changes in

water quality

Change in human footprint on water with AR4 A2 mean of all (20) models 2050s (left), with

AR4 A2 mean of all minus one standard deviation models 2050s (middle) and witth AR4 A2

mean of all (20) models 2080s (right)

Water security hotspots

Sensitivity of

water

balance to

rainfall

change

(mm/mm), at

sub-basin

scale

Water security hotspots

Sensitivity of

water stress

index to

change in

tree cover

(%/%)

associated

with

conversion

to pasture

Water security

underpinning other securities

• Water quantity and quality Agriculture and fisheries

Yields of soy will diminish 28% by 2050

• Seasonality of water supply -> food production

• Poor water quality and availability Risks in

hydroelectric plants

• Poor water quality oil refining and mining

Water security

underpinning other securities

• Water quantity riverine transport (liquid fuels

transportation, local access, transport of agricultural

products; access to health services)

• Climate regulation impacts on the range and transmission

of climate sensitive diseases. Poor water quality leading to

health insecurity, water regulation impacting on waterborne

diseases and water flow affecting spread of infectious

diseases

• Extreme events impact on health security through infectious

diseases, outbreaks, damage to food production, fires, etc.

Policy Recommendations

1. Zones for sustainable

interventions to safeguard water

security (ZES)

The ZES would be established in areas neighboring the Amazon

Region to limit the expanding agricultural frontier, as well as in

zones critical for sustaining the Region’s water security.

Likewise, the most vulnerable areas shall be identified and

prioritized. Such areas are those whose climates and land use

are undergoing changes that generate considerable risk to

natural resources, human welfare, and economic activities in the

short, medium, and long term.

ZES: Key activities

ZES

Guaranteeing the provision of ecosystem

services

Safe technology

Resilient transport

Tax-exempt economic activities

Promotion of inclusive markets;

Micro-credits

Strengthening mechanisms of

institutional support

Regional or international

funding

2. Regional platform for monitoring

and exchanging knowledge on

different securities

The growing threats to water, food, energy, and health

security in the Amazon Region (and particularly their

interactions) are not efficiently monitored at either the

regional or national level.

Quality information of a scientific nature is needed on the

status of the different securities and on the regional threats

to water security. Such information would provide input into

the formulation of strategies and public policies for effective

adaptation.

Purposes of a knowledge-sharing

methodology

Defining a methodology, agreed upon by the Amazon countries, to monitor and report on indicators for the different securities.

Promoting the exchange of research and information to foster increased knowledge on the interdependence between securities and the possible impact of changes in climate and land use.

Generating information on regional securities in near real-time, emphasizing key economic areas.

Defining and geo-referencing “zones of high risk to securities”

Exchanging successful experiences (South-South exchange)

3. Incorporate the provision of

water, food, energy and health

security into national planning

Climate change (including extreme climatic phenomena)

multiplies threats to securities provided by the Amazon Region.

Many Amazon countries have recognized the importance of

including climatic variability and climate change for the long term

in public policies, and have incorporated them into national and

regional development plans and into national adaptation plans,

among others.

To ensure that these

public policies respond

adequately to the needs

of safeguarding water,

food, energy, and health

(and their interactions) in

the Amazon Region and

beyond, some activities

are recommended:

Design action plans that strategically incorporate securities while reducing

inequity, inequality, and poverty, and strongly focusing on

promoting the fundamental rights associated with the securities needed by the

inhabitants of the Amazon Region (e.g., the right to a standard of living that is

adequate for ensuring health and access to food, potable

water, necessary social services, etc.)

Promote regional dialogue and differential

approaches for specific regions,

recognizing the strategic role of the Amazon

Region in maintaining securities.

Recognize the

interrelationships

among securities

through interventions

that are strategically

centered on multipliers

of opportunities

Thank you!

More information www.dapa.ciat.cgiar.org/

www.ciat.cgiar.org

c.navarrete@cgiar.org a.jarvis@cgiar.org

a.c.nowak@cgiar.org