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A newly formatted version of "Velocity is NOT the Goal" for Agile 2013. I've removed some details about standard deviation, added a few more thoughts around the "psychology" of setting targets for metrics, and show a bit more about how we do this at Groupon.
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Velocity Is NOT the Goal
Michael “Doc” Norton :: Groupon :: @DocOnDev
Agile Metrics
Velocity Is NOT the Goal
Velocity
Velocity
What’s Velocity?
Work Units / Time
Lagging Indicator
Measure of a Complex System
Lagging Indicatorfor a Complex System
A Tale of Two
Velocities
A
10, 11, 9 10
B
7, 14, 6, 10
Disclaimer
A
10, 11, 9 10Yesterday’s Weather: 10
B
7, 14, 6, 10Yesterday’s Weather: 10
A
10, 11, 9 10Yesterday’s Weather: 10Rolling Average: 10
B
7, 14, 6, 10Yesterday’s Weather: 10Rolling Average: 10
A
10, 11, 9 10Yesterday’s Weather: 10Rolling Average: 10Std. Deviation: 0.7
B
7, 14, 6, 10Yesterday’s Weather: 10Rolling Average: 10Std. Deviation: 3.1
A10, 11, 9 10Yesterday’s Weather: 10Rolling Average: 10Std. Deviation: 0.7Next: 9.3-10.7
B7, 14, 6, 10Yesterday’s Weather: 10Rolling Average: 10Std. Deviation: 3.1Next: 6.9-13.1
The Need for Speed
The Hawthorn Effect
That which is measured, will improve
That which is measured, will improve ... at a cost
Goodhart’s Law
When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a
good measure
Perverse Incentives
... an unintended result, contrary to interests of the
incentive makers
Dr. Deming
“What matters is not setting quantitative goals but fixing the method by which those goals are attained”
What causes variable Velocity?
Time Poorly Spent
Dependency on Other Teams
Poor Story Composition
Too Much Work In Progress
Scatter Diagrams
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
0 2 4 6 8
Scatter DiagramsAuto Prices by Year
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0 25 50 75 100
Scatter DiagramsVelocity by Complexity
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0 10000 20000 30000 40000
Scatter DiagramsVelocity by Value
0
12.5
25
37.5
50
0 22.5 45 67.5 90
Scatter DiagramsVelocity by Coverage
“Friedman’s Thermostat”
Correlation is not causation
Correlation is not causation but it sure is a hint
Cumulative Flow Diagrams
Backlog
Cumulative Flow Diagram
0
5
10
15
20
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Velocity Chart
Same Different Perspective
Team&
Data
CFD
0
25
50
75
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Deployed Ready for Approval In Testing In Progress Ready To Start
Measure Many Things
Measure Many Things
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Velocity
Measure Many Things
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150
5
10
15
20
Velocity Quality
Measure Many Things
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150
12.5
25
37.5
50
Velocity Quality Avg. Hours
Measure Many Things
0
4
8
12
16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 150
12.5
25
37.5
50
Velocity Quality Avg. Hours Team Joy
Real World Examples
Velocity w/Std. Deviation
Burn w/Std. Deviation
Cumulative Flow
Team Joy
Department Joy
One Last Thing
Metricsare not for
Managers
Metricsare forTeams
Velocity Is
NOT
the GoalMichael “Doc” NortonGroupon Director of [email protected]
@DocOnDevhttp://www.docondev.com/
Thank You!