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Why do we see new process/methodology/movement every 10 years or so? Here I explain the rationale behind this behavior using the concept of Adaptive Change Cycle.
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Naresh Jain [email protected]
twitter: @nashjain
http://nareshjain.com
Adaptive Change Cycle Why Nothing Lasts Forever!
Which line is the longest?
1
2
3
Müller-Lyer optical illusion
Which Orange Circle is bigger?
Ebbinghaus optical illusion
Count the number of times the team in white
t-shirt pass the ball
Video on Selective Attention http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vJG698U2Mvo
Selec4ve A7en4on
The process by which a person can selec4vely pick out one s4mulus from a mixture of s4muli occurring simultaneously.
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Copyright © 2013, AgileFAQs. All Rights Reserved.
Mumbai
Tech Talks!
Pet Plant Research @ an elderly Nursing Home
Student Volunteers @ Nursing Home
Why?
What would you prefer?
A lo7ery 4cket with a random number
or a number you’ve picked?
What would you prefer?
In the Casino, if you toss the dice
or someone else tosses the dice?
Do you think it will make any difference?
Illusion of Control
Our desire to control is so powerful that the feeling of being in control is so rewarding that people oLen act as though they can control the uncontrollable.
Electrical Shock Research
High Volts Shock Group vs. Low Volts Shock Group
5 shocks of 5 volts each vs. 3 shocks of 2-‐4 volts each
Every 10 seconds vs. Random 4me intervalWhich Group would have sweated more, whose heart beats would be faster and who claimed
to be more afraid?
Uncertainty
Why? Our desire to Control
How do we deal with Uncertainty?
Predictability Paradox
How to Organize a Children's Party?
A video by Dave Snowdenhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Miwb92eZaJg
Summary -‐ Cynefin Model
Why is there only ONE Toyota or Apple today?
Products & Processes are like haircuts Copying someone else’s rarely works
Retrospec4ve Coherence
Hindsight does not lead to foresight!
Will Apple or Toyota’s success last for ever?
Why not?
Adaptive Change Cycle
Adaptive Change Cycle in the Automobile Industry
Every 10 Years Process Go Thru The Adaptive Change Cycle
Adaptive Change Cycle
Copyright © 2013, AgileFAQs. All Rights Reserved.
References
http://www.resalliance.org/
Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems
Noah Raford - Explaining the Cycle of Adaptive Change
Being ‘agile’ OVER
Following ‘Agile’
© AgileFAQs -‐ All Rights Reserved
5 Key take-‐aways from this Session
Beware of Illusion of Control and Predictability Paradox
Ac4on Precedes Clarity
Retrospec4ve Coherence -‐ Copying rarely helps
Perfec4on in very first a7empt is impossible, iterate via safe-‐fail experimenta4on to eventually a7ain perfec4on
Nothing lasts for ever, go through the adap4ve change cycle as rapidly as possible (reorganisa4on, exploita4on, conserva4on & release)
