การคาดการณ์อนาคตเทคโนโลยี

APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org

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การคาดการณ์�อนาคตเทคโนโลยี�technology foresightดร. นเรศ ด��รงชั�ยศ นย�ค�ดก�รณ์�เทคโนโลย�เอเปค, สวทน.20 เมษ�ยน 2554


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patterns

+

signals

new context


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Today

early weak signals of change

Time

Source: Bezold and Hancock 1993, modified by APEC CTF

Possible and

Plausible

futures

Scenario A

Expected

Preferred

Scenario B


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Source: Energy Modelling Forum


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• Royal Dutch/Shell used scenario planning system in early 1970s.

• Shell was prepared to deal with the 1973 oil shock and greatly improved its competitive position in the industry.


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Rand Corporation, Global Technology Revolution 2020

Battelle, R&D Forecast 2011

NISTEP, Science & Technology Foresight

Korea STEPI,Mega Trends

Analysis

UK Foresight Programme

(Govt Office for Science)

STI Office, APEC CTFForfas

Ireland 2025

European Commission, Research & Innovation - SSH

ITRI,Taiwan 2015

Technology Foresight

Singapore, Risk Assessment and

Horizon Scanning

Center for Strategic Studies and Management Science, Technology and

Innovation

7APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org

Climate change and its impact

Migration, rural life, and natural resources

Society and health

Trade of goods and services

Housing, construction, urban life, transportation


Some lessons learned from LCS scenarios

• Coastal-to-inland migration sparks major conflicts over land and resources.

• Emergence of computerized farming and other technological advances.

• Carbon accounting becomes so dominant it replaces USD as the global currency.

• Community networking is the key. Community-driven initiatives drive the changes the world requires in pursuit of the low-carbon development path.

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GreenInnovation

Inclusive


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Source: http://mobile-explorer.blogspot.com/2009_02_01_archive.html

Future Mobile Phones

APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org 11Source: Picture of the Future, Siemens (2005)


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Boston’s Deer Island water treatment plant uses processes from Siemens Water Technologies

Catching water pollutants. Siemens’ process (left) keeps membrane filters from becoming clogged.

Source: http://www.siemens.com/innovation/


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foresight ก�บก�รด แลอน�คตประเทศไทย

• ระด�บองค�กร– ส��น�กง�นปรม�ณ์ เพื่"#อส�นต$– สวทชั.

• ระด�บ sector– อน�คตเกษตรไทย– อน�คตส%ขภ�วะไทย

• ระด�บประเทศ– อน�คตประเทศไทย– คว�มเส�#ยงประเทศไทย

• ระด�บภ ม$ภ�ค– อ�เซี�ยน– เอเปค


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Designing A Technology Roadmap

Revisiting National Nanotechnology Strategic Plan

2007-2013 and Master Plan (2007-2011)

Analyzing Global Nano Science & Nanotechnology Trend

- Identify Keywords & Technology

Definition and Taxonomy

- Bibliometric Analysis

- Patent Analysis

- Literature Review

Technology Roadmapping

- NANOTEC Internal Resource Management

- Impact Estimation

- Timeline Mapping

- Charting

- Prioritization

- Change Management Planning

Jan 09 August 09

TRM


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Energy production, conversion & storage

08/07/09 Integrated NANOTEC TRM

Resources

Budget

Manpower

Equipment Based on the requirement of Lab/ Project/ Program

Functional Nanostructure

CoreTechnology

Coating

Encapsulation

Target

Target

Target

2010 2011 2012 2013

R&D Agenda

Agricultural productivity enhancement

Disease diagnosis & screening

Water treatment & remediation

Vector & pest detection/control

Drug delivery system

Food processing & storage

Textile

Computer Modeling / Simulation

Intelligence Information Unit

Safety & Risk Management

CoreKnowledge

Tools


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Krabi Initiative 2010:Science Technology and Innovation (STI) for a Competitive , Sustainable and Inclusive ASEAN

STI Enculturation

Public-Private Partnership

Platform

Bottom-of-the -Pyramid (BOP)

Focus

Youth-focused Innovation

STI for Green Society

Organisational restructure for a meaningful delivery of STI agenda in ASEAN

ASEAN Innovation for Global Market

Green Technology

Digital Economy, New Media & Social Network

Science and Innovation for Life

Biodiversity for Health & Wealth

Energy Security

Water Management

Food Security

Thematic Tracks

Develop mechanisms to pursue partnerships and cooperation with other stakeholders in STI

Paradigm Shifts

ASEAN 2015 – Vision of ASEAN Leaders

Rationale Roles of STI – A Balance between Competitiveness and Human Development (People-oriented STI)

Reinventing ASEAN Scientific Community for a Meaningful Delivery of STI Agenda in ASEAN

Courses of Action

Enhance ASEAN Plan of Action on S&T for 2012-2015 and leverage the recommendations of the Krabi Retreat for development of future APAST beyond 2015

Implement monitoring and evaluation mechanism for the implementation of STI thematic tracks

Source: National Science Technology and Innovation Policy Office - Thailand, December 2010


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Rising above the gathering storm

Risk and disaster management1


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Rising above the gathering storm

• Influencing the debate and structuring of federal policy and budgets, prompting activity at local, state, and regional levels.

• Creating competitiveness– Human capital– Knowledge capital– Innovation environment

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Twenty-first Century Skills