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Modelling crisis management for improved action and preparedness
This project has received funding from the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 284552 "CRISMA“
An Architecture for transferable
applications
CRISMA end user workshop at PSCE conference
2014-05-22, Göteborg, Se
Denis Havlik (AIT), Pascal Dihé (cismet)
15/10/2014 | 2
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
We can only develop a
few applications at the
level of “working
prototype”
So why should you think
about CRISMA
framework, building
blocks and architecture?
And why do we claim
that CRISMA results
are “transferable”?
15/10/2014 | 3
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Intended uses of CRISMA
Debriefing
(Desktop) Training
for decision makers
Planning - Infrastructure
- Resources
15/10/2014 | 4
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Nordic
exposure
Coastal
inundation
Toxic gas
exposure
Earthquake,
cascading
effects
Mass
accident
Optimization
of RM
planning
X ~ ~ ~ X
Decision
maker
training
~ X ~
Investment
planning ~ X XDebriefing
~ ~ XX = major interest; ~ = nice to have & possible extensions; RM = resource management
CRISMA applications – topical coverage
15/10/2014 | 5
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
CRISMA assumption: these applications can be designed in
coherent way=> re-use of concepts and
software; transferable to new applications
15/10/2014 | 6
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Concept => implementation => applications
Specification Level
ImplementationLevel
“CRISMA framework architecture v2” document can be downloaded from our web site
15/10/2014 | 7
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Events => decisions => consequences
Any element can be
either real or
simulated
Outcome can be
changed by users
decisions.
Behind the
scenes, “things
happen”
15/10/2014 | 8
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Common conceptual business logic
World
(what is out here?)
World
Model
Incident
Model
Response
Model
World
Situation(X, t)
Incident
Situation(X, t)
Parameters ParametersParameters
Define freely Define freely Define freely
OR OR OR
(what are we dealing with?) (how do we react?)
Incident Response influences influences
Restore
Model
Restore
Situation(X, t)
Response
Situation(X, t)
Define freely
Parameterscreates
The „world“ is
represented by „situation“
and by models which can
change the situation
Situations and models
pertinent to different stages
of crisis management are
relatively decoupled…
New situations
can also be
postulated by
users
15/10/2014 | 9
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Vulnerability Classes
:
Situation Maps
Objects of Interest
Weather Data
...
SimulationControl
Parameter
SimulationWorld State
Manipulation
Vulnerability Classes
:
Situation Maps
Objects of Interest
Weather Data
...
SimulationControl
Parameter
World State'
change
Indicators
Indicators
Indicator Function
Simulation
. . .
Simulation
Simulation
calculate
trigger
perform
kl
Hazard Exposure
MitigationResource Managem
ent
f
M
M
M
M
Materialization of World states, decisions, transitions
CRISMA
framework
operate on
„world states“,
coherent sets
of data
describing the
(simulated)
world
Users Decisions
change the world state
– either directly or by
changing model
parameters
Everything we
know about the
World is based
on the world
state
15/10/2014 | 10
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World StateData
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World StateData
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
World State
Transition
Time
Alt
ern
ati
ves
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World StateData
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World StateData
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Concept of Decision Points & Alternative Worlds
Alternative users’
decisions result in
alternative World
States.
The results can be
compared...
15/10/2014 | 11
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World StateData
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
World StateData
Criteria and Costs
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World StateData
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
WorldState
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
Criteria and Costs
World StateData
SimulationModel Control
Parameter
PlanningDecision Making
Training
Indicators and Criteria
are representative
quantifications of a world
state
Are independent from the
models and decisions
are the base for situation
analysis and visualization
support decision making
Transferable solutions can be
developed
Comparison through
indicators and criteria
functions
15/10/2014 | 14
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
And some transferable models…
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
CASCADE EFFECTS
TIME DEPENDENT
VULNERABILITY
RESSOURCES DEPLOYMENT
Illustrations by: Konzumel (money - http://www.flickr.com/photos/kozumel/), Jeff McNeill (time - http://www.flickr.com/photos/jeffmcneill/),
Donwoodyard (ambulance - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Lanka_ambulance.jpg),
Nauticashades (domino - http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File%3ADomino_Cascade.JPG)
15/10/2014 | 15
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Sure, this sounds good
at the level of power
point presentation…
But…
.. can you show us
any actual evidence?
15/10/2014 | 16
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
YES we can!(but we are quite scared because of the internet
connectivity issues we experienced last week)
15/10/2014 | 17
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
We will present two working prototypes as they are today next: one
related to infrastructure planning, other to resource management
training
Both follow the CRISMA architectural principles and already share big part of the software…
15/10/2014 | 19
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Three illustrative examples:
15/10/2014 | 20
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Indicator analysis and multi-criteria functions
and GUI elements
1
15/10/2014 | 21
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
What is the relative importance of…?
Illustrations from wikimedia.org
15/10/2014 | 22
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Handling of cascading events
issue: probabilities are often unknown
2
15/10/2014 | 23
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
15/10/2014 | 24
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Transferability between “training” and
“planning” pilotsdemonstration planned in v2
3
15/10/2014 | 25
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
With fully-fledged Pilot C (Israel) application, one could
already validate a plan by executing it as a training.
not a very user-friendly solution
=> we shall create additional v2 Building Block to:
1. Track decisions (as they reflect the plan) from a training run
– This information is already available
2. replay with some variations in environment, e.g. number of
patients, weather conditions
3. replay with altered decisions (testing some changes in the
response plan)
Why and how can we achieve this?
15/10/2014 | 26
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Resource management training and planning:
synergies and differences
1) Training 2) Planning Differences & comments
Scenario setup X X -
Interactive view X x Not strictly necessary, but we shall
use interactive view to prepare initial
plansStore decisions X X
Edit decisions - X Changing parameters (e.g. when and
where to send resources?)
Edit initial
parameters
X X part of scenario setup! (accident
position, weather, no. victims…)
Re-play decisions x X Nice to have in training case („demo
mode“)
Result
comparison
X X -
15/10/2014 | 27
Denis Havlik, AIT and Pascal Dihé, cismet
Thank You!
Follow CRISMA in: www.crismaproject.eu