20110215 helsinki

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  • 1. Transformative Changetowards Sustainable MobilityJan Rotmans Oslo, 31-01-2011

2. Persistent Problems 3. Persistent problems

  • our society faces a number of persistent problems
  • many examples:climate change, energy supply,
  • water problem, mobility problem, agriculture, health care
  • persistence is due to system failures that are deeply rooted
  • in our societal structures
  • regular policy aimed at incremental improvement
  • is not enough to resolve persistent problems
    • transformative change is needed

4. Persistency of mobility system

    • congestion
    • 10% of Europese car network confronted with traffic jams
    • victims
      • 41.000 victims per year in Europe
    • space use
    • 75% increase over the last 30 years
    • pollution
      • 30% of CO2-emissions in Europe due to transport
    • noise
    • 33% of Europeans exposed to damaging noise pollution

5. Damage of unsustainable symptoms

    • total expenses for transport sector in Europe are
    • about 1500 billion Euro, is 10% of European GDP
    • estimated damage as a result of congestion is about
    • 1 % of European GDP and increases till about
    • 2 % by 2020

6. Conclusion

    • the current mobility system is far from sustainable
    • both on the European and on the Dutch scale

7. Sustainability Transitions 8. Transition

    • fundamental change of structure, culture and practices in
    • societal (sub)system
    • structure: physical infrastructure, economic infrastructure(market, consumption, production), institutions
          • (rules, regulations, collective actors)
    • culture: collective set of values, norms, perspective
    • (shared orientation), paradigm (defining
    • problems and solutions)
    • practices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling,
    • implementation at the individual level
    • incumbent structure, culture and practices need to be broken
    • down and new (sustainable) ones need to be built up

9. Examples of transitions

  • from coal energy supply to gas energy supply
  • from extensive to intensive agriculture
  • from an industrial - to service - to knowledge economy
  • from fossil fuel based energy supply to renewable
  • energy supply
      • not spontaneous processes

10. Mobility System

    • structure: traditionally organized, many actors involved
    • limited collective sterring capacity
    • culture: dominant paradigm focused on automobility distinction between mobility modalities
    • practices: all routines, behaviour, ways of handling,
    • are oriented towards cars

11. Mobility is complex, adaptive system

    • verkeers- en vervoerssysteem is een complex, adaptief systeem:
    • is voortdurend in beweging en bestaat uit samenhangende componenten die elkaar wezenlijk benvloeden (co-evolutie)
    • heeft een zekere onvoorspelbaarheid (chaotisch gedrag)
    • heeft zelforganiserend vermogen (op elke interventie wordt door actoren weer onverwacht gereageerd via een gedragsaanpassing = reflexief vermogen)
    • zolang men geen rekening houdt met deze complexiteit is elke tijdelijke oplossing gedoemd te mislukken.

12. Breakthrough to sustainable society Widespread applicationof new paradigms Distribution and diffusion of societal advantages Battle between old andnew paradigm Build up and decayof institutions energy Time Consolidatiion transport fisheries health care agriculture 20 - 30 years Acceleration phase Predevelopment phase 20 30 years Tipping Point We are here 13. Multiple Levels Macro-level globalization, demographic trends hypermobility climate changeMeso-level limited collective steering capacity failing mobility policyIncreasing norms for CO2, fine particles Micro-level mobility innovation programmes mobility experiments 14. Conclusion

    • Dutch mobility system is in a lock-in state
    • measures for achieving sustainable mobility either :
    • are acceptable but have no serious impacts or
    • have impacts but no broad support in society

15. Why do transitions often fail?

    • game, rules and players
    • transition requires a new structure, culture and practices
    • transition requires new rules, new players and new game
    • dominant players have too many interests to defend and
    • don t want to changethe rules drastically
    • only new players can break open the game and change
    • the rules
    • more, different, better

16. Sustainability as orientation

    • sustainability serves as guiding orientation for transition
    • sustainable development is a socially and scientifically
    • contested notion:no unique definition or approach
    • transition approach
    • organize reflexive search and learning process with
    • stakeholders [frontrunners] to assess what sustainability
    • is in a particular context

17. Transition governance

  • rules of thumb
  • long-term thinking as the basis for short term policy
  • think in terms of multiple domains (multi-domain), different actors (multi-actor),different levels (multi-level)
  • learning as an important aim for policy (learning-by-doing and doing-by-learning)
  • using uncertainties as a starting point for governance
  • keeping options open (wide playing field)

18. Forced Steering is counterproductive

  • Suzuki Foundation report on climate change policy
  • radical recommendations
  • CCS mandatory
  • California-level fuel efficiency standards for vehiclesc
  • capturing methane emissions from all landfills
  • less growth in Alberta and Saskatchewan
  • Battle between Provinces

19. Transition approach

    • principles
    • put energy in frontrunners and not in the pack
    • bring frontrunners together in protected spaces
    • develop a long-term agenda, incl. vision + pathways
    • start with portfolio of transition experiments
    • create new coalitions around pathways & experiments
    • searching, learning, experimenting

20. Transition approach cycle vision,pathways, transition agenda transition arena transition experiments evaluation, monitoringlearning 21. society Transition arenas Regular policy arena

  • - Short term
  • - Peloton
  • Incremental change
  • Problem-and goal oriented
  • - Long term
  • - Innovators
  • System-innovation
  • Problem- and goal searching

The transition arenaspace for experimenting and envisioning 22. Transition Experiments

    • s ocietal experiments with high risks (chance of failure) and a high potential to contribute to a transition process
    • how to manage portfolio of transition experiments?
    • deepening [learn as much as possible from an experiment]
    • broadening [repeating an experiment in a different context]
    • scaling up [anchoring of an experiment in the regime ]

23. Transition Experiments

    • energy delivering greenhouse
    • rush hour avoidance
    • electric vehicles