Sustainable Development

Karel Mulder

Polynesian Society:

Clans

rivalry

Religious centres

‘ahu’

Complex Society

deforestation

Collapse

Parallel?

oil

Parallel Easter island?

Space Debris

Parallel Easter island?

Cultural collapse

• Salinisation –pumping, irrigation

• Agricultural erosion, Dust Bowl

• Monocultures: epidemics

But also sometimes creativity

• Industrial revolution by shortage of wood» --

• Steam engine

SD is not ‘environment

-Cycles-equity integrated

-Sometimes contradictory:Organic water treatment,etc..

What is an environmental problem?

karelm: voorspelling op basis van zonne activiteit: bewijs voor antropogene klimaatverandering

http://web.dmi.dk/fsweb/solarterrestrial/sunclimate/welcome.shtml

Sustainable Development:The world is our common heritagenot just environmental efficiency but also equity

As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts 80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns.

SD is related to interests

The Global Challenge

Halving our usage of environment/resources

Income in poor ‘South’ at least50 % of ‘North’ in 2050

I = P * A * TI Environmental Impact

P Population

A Affluence Consumption of services and products per capita

T Technology Environmental burden per product or service unit

80-20 rule of thumb:

20 % of world populationconsumes 80 % of naturalresources (fossil fuels, ores etc.)

Ergo: resource consumption Richworld is 16 times more than in Poor World

3,7533Wereld

5,254,54,5Overig

2,51,751,6INDUSTRIAL

20,751,1EU

1,2520,2JAPAN

3,52,52,4USA

200420032002

http://www.cpb.nl/nl/cpbreport/2003_3/cpbr033.pdf

Economic growth

A Future in 50 years?

North 2 % growthSouth 6-7 % growth

6-7 % growth for 50 years means: factor 18-302 % growth for 50 years means: factor 2.7

Result:- Equity difference reduced from factor 16 to factor 1.5-2.4- Growth resource consumption: Factor 5.8-8.2

Population growth until2050: 9,5 billion

2000 2050WORLD 6.071 8.919More developed regions 1.194 1.220Less developed regions 4.877 7.699Least developed countries 668 1.675Africa 796 1.803Asia 3.680 5.222Europe 728 632Latin America + Carib. 520 768Northern America 316 448Oceania 31 46

Data: UN Population Division, World Population in 2300 (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/longrange2.htm)

Prognosis Population

23

From Vision to ActionThe Challenge

2000 2050

Global Population 1 *

1,5 *

Affluence/person 1 *

6 – 9 *

Pollution/affluence 1 =

1/9 – 1/27 =

Pollution 1 1 – 1/2

Improvement factor “20”

20502000 TIME

E

F

F

E

C

T

Renewalby Need

And function

improvementof products and processes

20

5

1

Optimaluse