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Sports betting myths are exposed again. This is the slide show your bookmaker hopes you never see. Find out why. This sports handicapping secret has to do with betting the side and total, but focuses on NFL hard-core facts to exploit a myth.
Citation preview
Another Betting Myth
Exposed
By OffshoreInsiders.com
If>Then Construct With Sides and Totals
Direct quote from square handicapper, “If you’re a parlay type bettor that likes to bet the total and side of a game, here’s a piece of advice. If you bet on the favorite, take the over. If you like the underdog, take the under.”
The Square Tout Continues…
“The logic behind this theory is simple. For example: when a team is favored by 7 points or more with an over of 44.5, all you need is for the underdog to get up ahead or stay in the game as long as they can. Because the favorite is more likely to catch up and put up some points on the board, the percentage is good to cover the over. As for the dog, if they can keep the favorite off the board, the percentage of the under and dog covering is on your side.”
Grandmaster Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of
OffshoreInsiders.com concludes
Conclusion: admittedly the theory shows some scintilla of potential as the favorite and the under happened only 91.5 as often as the underdog and the under. This is consistent with the theory.
But alas, the hypothesis falters as the underdog and the over proves to be more commonplace than the favorite and the over, disproving “conventional logic.”
Despite the above quote originating from a tout, personal experience dictates the would-be expert buys it hook, line, and sinker with a large point spread.
Common square theory: if you like the big
favorite, you must bet the over. Big dog=under
Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe
Duffy says:
Conclusion: not only does the sports betting old wives tale prove to be false, but also the results lean towards the opposite to be true. Counterintuitive, the underdog and the over are the most likely outcome in an expected blowout.
Test further
So how about large point spread and a game that is expected to be either high or low scoring—hence says the mythology, “controlling the pace” becomes a prominent factor?
OffshoreInsiders.com
Betting expert concludes:
Not, repeat not statistically significant, but the only potential angle is to bet the underdog and over combo or parlay. Yet again, this is complete refutation of the gambling folklore.
Squares really look foolish
The grounds for this being my favorite myth within a myth is because I so often have heard squares whine of the trepidation of combining a large favorite with the under.
The apprehensiveness originates from anxiety over the fact a fluke early touchdown or two can relegate one into rooting for a split at best.
Example, if a point spread is (-14.5) with a total of 33.5, two touchdowns by the underdog early can make the favorite/under combination a mathematical impossibility.
So what? In many mismatches, the underdog isn’t likely to score multiple times. A good handicapper monetizes these opportunities.
OffshoreInsiders.com is always
about the facts
Joe Duffy concludes
Conclusion: the sample size is small, but the results prove to be the polar opposite of “conventional logic.”
Unfortunately, it’s not an angle to directly monetize, but rather disproving a myth that has caused too many square players to bypass winning handicapping picks in lieu of believing fabrication.
What do pro bettors learn?
A good handicapper analyzes the side and total as separate entities and the numbers justify why.
Free sports picks, the most informative sports betting podcasts, and the top sports handicappers are on the OffshoreInsiders.com Network.
