Elaine wong a race to the finish

A Race to the Finish: Decision Making in Groups and Teams

Elaine M. WongDepartment of Communication

UW-Milwaukee

Overview

• Decision making (DM) models

• DM in teams: Carter racing exercise

• Debrief and discuss problems team DM

© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee

Rational Decision Making Models


What kinds of assumptions do rational theorists make?

• People are “rational”• Use information optimally• Driven by outcomes, consumption• Framing does not matter• People know their preferences, preferences

do not change• Probabilities can be calculated


Factors affecting decisions in organizations

Individual Level•Decision making styles•Cognitive limitations•Past experience

Group Level•Group effectiveness •Group composition•Group processes

Organizational Level•System complexity•Time pressure•Politics

Decision

Uncertainty


March & Simon’s Administrative Model

• Based on observations that people– have limited skills – are subject to cognitive biases– rarely have accurate and complete information– in short, assumes bounded rationality

• Satisficing decisions– Select an acceptable solution


Carter Racing

• Your dilemma: Should Carter Racing take part in the Pocono race?– Read case– Write down individual decision to race or not

(provide justification- 5 min.)– Get into groups and reach a group decision to

race or not (provide justification- 20-25 min.)


Carter Racing: push and pull factorsPros

-prize money from race-gain a new sponsor(Goodstone tires)-have the money to put out

another car to their racing team

Cons

-if race and fail:-lose tire sponsorship-need to replace $20K engine-lose oil contract -wasted entry fees

-if withdraw without racing-lose $7,500 of entry fee-lose potential sponsorship with Goodstone and need to return money-end season with $ 50K deficit© Elaine Wong, UW-Milwaukee

Relationship between temperature and gasket failures

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

50 55 60 65 70 75 80

Ambient Air Temperature (in degrees)

Hea

d G

aske

t F

ailu

res


Ambient temperature for races without blown gaskets

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85

Ambient Air Temperature (in degrees)

Nu

mb

er o

f R

aces

Races with and without gasket failures

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Ambient air temperature (in degrees)

Nu

mb

er o

f in

cid

ents

gasket failures no gasket failures

Why your decision matters…


Cognitive biases in DM groups

• Confirmation bias– Tendency to search for information that

substantiates currently-held beliefs/goals.• Availability bias

– Overestimating the frequency of vivid, extreme or recent events and causes

• Representative bias– Failure to take into account base rates and

overestimating the likelihood of rare events


More cognitive biases!

• Anchoring and adjustment– Inappropriate decisions when initial amounts are

too high or low• Groupshift

– Tendency to exaggerate one’s initial position• Groupthink

– When a group’s norm for consensus overrides the realistic appraisal of alternatives


Social problems in DM groups

• Production blocking– Having to wait your turn to voice your ideas

• Evaluation apprehension– Worried about how others will evaluate your ideas

• Free riding/social loafing– The larger the group, the less individual effort

exerted.• Conflict

– Task: regarding how to approach the task– Emotional: typically based on value differences


Improving group DM

• Generate more alternatives– Brainstorming

• 1) Don't allow criticism; • 2) Encourage wild ideas; • 3) Go for quantity; • 4) Combine and/or improve on others' ideas.

– Nominal group technique• Go it alone first!


More on improving group DM

• Generate task conflict– Minority dissent

• Alternative perspective to majority views enhances divergent thinking at the subconscious level.

– Devil’s advocate• Force the group to consider alternative solutions.


Sports

Elaine wong a race to the finish