Coalition Building and Power Reconfiguration in Indonesia After the 2009 Parliamentary Elections

THE RACE TO ISTANA MERDEKA

Three new rules:

MPs are determined by votes not party rank

Parliamentary threshold: 2.5% votes

Candidacy of president: 25% votes or 20% parliament seatsfrom a party or a coalition of parties

Results: 9 parties are going to the parliament

11.9%

7.9%3.4%

2.3%

9.5%

1.8%

1.06%

4.6%

2.8%

Votes Transfers 2004-2009Source: CIRUS Surveyor Group

PD

PDIPPAN

Golkar

PKB

PPP

PKSFirstVoters

Gerindra

Hanura

Why Democrat Party Wins?

The SBY FactorGood Image: LeadershipIntellectualism Nationalist religiousReformasi’s Suharto

Organized Campaign

Political consultant:FoxIndonesia

2nd largest campaign fund:S$ 35 millions

“Pro-people” policies

Cash Transfer Program (BLT)

Lower Oil Prices

School subsidies

Coalition Building ProcessPhase 1

PDPDIP

PAN

Golkar

PKB PPP PKS

Gerindra

Hanura

Popularity > 50%

Coalition Building ProcessPhase 2

PDPDIP

PKB

PKSGerindra

Hanura

“Grand Coalition”

PPP PAN

GolkarSBY JK Divorced

Coalition Building ProcessPhase 3

PDPDIP

Golkar

PKB

PKS Gerindra

Hanura

JK-Win declared“Faster is Better”

PPP

PANMegawati vs. Prabowo

Coalition Building ProcessPhase 4

PD

Golkar

Gerindra

Hanura

“Grand Coalition”?

PDIP

PANPPP

PKB

PKS

??

? ?SBY Mega flirting

Coalition Building ProcessPhase 5

PD

Golkar

Gerindra

Hanura

PDIP

PANPPP

PKB

PKS

??

?

SBY’s running mate

?

Three couples to compete

Market Economy

Susilo B. YudhoyonoBoediono “SBY-No”

Jusuf KallaWiranto“JK-Win”

Megawati SukarnoputriPrabowo Subianto

“Mega-Bowo”

Market Socialism Anti-neoliberal

Three couples to compete

Market EconomyPolitical Islam: yes

Susilo B. YudhoyonoBoediono “SBY-No”

Jusuf KallaWiranto“JK-Win”

Megawati SukarnoputriPrabowo Subianto

“Mega-Bowo”

Market SocialismPolitical Islam: yes

Anti-neoliberalPolitical Islam: yes

Possibly Two Rounds

Second Round

Votes Transfer

thanks.