Redefining projects for an age of complexity_Jovan Vidic

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Why was this project doomed to failure?

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Why was this project doomed to failure?

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History of (modern) project management

2 + 2 = ?

796 x 457 = ?

http://distractify.com/old-school/2015/02/22/mind-blowing-optical-illusions-1197825445

https://soundcloud.com/whyy-the-pulse

http://distractify.com/old-school/2015/02/22/mind-blowing-optical-illusions-1197825445

Anchoring BiasAnchoring is a cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the "anchor") when making decisions.

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Cognitive Biases

Bandwagon EffectThe bandwagon effect is a psychological phenomenon whereby people do something primarily because other people are doing it, regardless of their own beliefs, which they may ignore or override.

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Cognitive Biases

Projection biasThe tendency to unconsciously assume that others (or one's future selves) share one's current emotional states, thoughts and values.

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Cognitive Biases

Recency biasRecency bias is the name for the heavy influence that recent experience can have on our decision making.

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Cognitive Biases

http://www.themesltd.com/covers/homer_simpson_no_brain_no_pain.png

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Mythology of Agile software development

https://dev.to/rly

https://dev.to/rly

http://gaspull.geeksaresexytech.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/software-eng.jpg

https://stepsandleaps.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/complexity-map-overview.jpg

Modern history of complexity

What is Complexity?Complexity is more a way of thinking about the world than a new way of working with mathematical models.

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Understanding Complexity

What is Complex System?• It involves large numbers of

interacting elements• The interactions are

nonlinear, and minor changes can produce disproportionately major consequences.

• The system is dynamic, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and solutions can’t be imposed;

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Understanding Complexity

What is Cynefin?Cynefin, pronounced ku-nev-in, is a Welsh word that signifies the multiple factors in our environment and our experience that influence us in ways we can never understand.

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Understanding Complexity - CYNEFIN

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CYNEFIN – SIMPLE DOMAIN

• Characteristics: • Repeating patterns• Clear cause and effect• Fact-based management

• The Leader’s Job:• Sense, Categorize, Respond• Communicate in clear and direct ways• Interactive communication may not be necessary

• Danger!• Complacency and comfort• Desire to make complex problems simple• Overreliance on best practice

CYNEFIN – SIMPLE DOMAIN

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CYNEFIN – complicated DOMAIN

• Characteristics: • Expert diagnosis required• Cause and effect not immediately apparent to everyone• Fact based but—more than one right answer

• The Leader’s Job:• Sense, Analyze, Respond• Create panels of experts• Listen to conflicting advice

• Danger!• Experts can become overconfident and blind to other solutions• Viewpoints of non-experts are excluded• Analysis Paralysis

CYNEFIN – complicated DOMAIN

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CYNEFIN – complex DOMAIN

• Characteristics: • Flux and unpredictability• Need for creative and innovative approaches• Unknown Unknowns

• The Leader’s Job:• Probe, Sense, Respond• Increased levels of interaction and communication• Use methods that help generate ideas

• Danger!• Temptation to fall back into habitual command-and-control

mode• Temptation to look for facts rather than allowing patterns to

emerge• Desire to cut short time involved

CYNEFIN – complex DOMAIN

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CYNEFIN – chaotic DOMAIN

• Characteristics: • High turbulence• Many decisions and no time• High tension

• The Leader’s Job:• Act, Sense, Respond• Look for what works instead of seeking right answers• Provide clear, direct communication

• Danger!• Applying a command-and-control approach longer than

needed• Missed opportunity for innovation• Chaos unabated

CYNEFIN – chaotic DOMAIN

If you don’t know where you’re going, any road will take you there

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CYNEFIN – DISORDER DOMAIN

Find customers and run cheap experiments to check if your assumptions are correct

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Scientific Method

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Structured exploration of uncertainty

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Lean thinking

Cynefin – Simpledomain

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KimBallestrin

https://www.infoq.com/minibooks/cynefin-mini-bookhttp://www.slideshare.net/Kim_B/cynefin-and-agile-last-conf-july-2012https://hbr.org/2007/11/a-leaders-framework-for-decision-makinghttp://classes.bus.oregonstate.edu/ba352/elton/Articles/Decision%20Making.pptxhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7oz366X0-8http://cognitive-edge.com/http://www.davefarley.net/https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/https://www.amazon.com/Lean-Enterprise-Performance-Organizations-Innovate/dp/1449368425/https://www.amazon.com/Management-3-0-Developers-Developing-Addison-Wesley-ebook/dp/B004ISL6JY/

Resources

high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology

belief in stationary (sustained, stable outcomes) in a complex situation leads to blindness, which can yield catastrophic results

Any tool/methodology/framework can be misused

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/61/cf/81/61cf81c3b2b4b1bf636e11bc2cc5f479.gif

Thank you