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Integrated Asset Modeling For
Market Driven Gas Planning
www.GasAssure.com
GasAssure
• Stochastic Simulation Ltd is an Australian
unlisted public company providing specialist
software and services to the upstream oil and gas
industry
• Product Portfolio:
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Stochastic Simulation
• Cutting-edge IAM for gas planning solution
• Fully integrated “reservoir to market” gas planning solution
• Modern, clean and intuitive user interface
• Fast, robust core processing
• Infinitely flexible reporting
• Long history as corporate gas planning solution in large E&P companies
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Outline
• An Integrated Asset modeling solution for market-driven gas planning
• The only truly integrated solution for back allocation of production based on multiple market demands
• An invaluable tool for short, medium and long-term planning projects as it offers a unique “reservoir to market” solution
• A fit-for-purpose approach, which is able to define, characterise and explore what-if scenarios for large scale, multi-billion dollar gas projects in a fraction of the time taken by current methods
• An intuitive, flexible, powerful, and easy to use interface
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
What is GasAssure?
4
• Integrated Asset modeling (or IAM) is computer modeling of surface and subsurface elements of a field development
• Historically the reservoir has always been modelled separately from the surface network and the facilities
• As the aim of an IAM is to provide a production forecast which honours both the physical realities of the reservoir and the infrastructure required
• Typical Components of an IAM – A subsurface reservoir model
– A gas delivery network
– A system availability model
– A system constraint manager
– A production optimisation algorithm
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential 5
What Is Integrated Asset modeling?
Improved gas planning tools have proven to increase operator’s annual revenues in excess of $100 USD million. Including but not limited to:
• Additional spot cargoes 1
• Increased production of condensates and LPGs whilst fulfilling contracted and predicted gas demand 2
• Uncertainty quantification and planning strategies for “What If” scenario analysis
• Investigating additional Marketing/Commercial opportunities
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Effective Gas Planning Tools = $$$
1. Lanner.com, (2014). Shell’s Revolutionary Terminal and Logistics Planning System | Liquefied Natural Gas | WITNESS. [online] Available at: http://www.lanner.com/en/case-study.cfm?theCaseStudyID=CA0D41D1-15C5-F4C0-990E96EA8969C456. 2. Selot, A., Kuok, L. K., Robinson, M., Mason, T. L. and Barton, P. I. (2008), A short-term operational planning model for natural gas production systems. AIChE J., 54: 495–515. doi: 10.1002/aic.11385
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential 7
Uses of GasAssure
EXPLORATION PLANNING PRE-DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
POST-DEVELOPMENT PLANNING
• Production Profiling
• Decision Support • Optimisation
• Raising Finance for Exploration Projects
• Evaluation of project
• Contract Negotiation
• Drilling
• Cash flow forecasting
• Risk Mitigation
• Extending Field Life
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential 8
Typical GasAssure Model Users
• Coverage of existing contracts
• Uncontracted / 3rd party gas opportunities Commercial
• Development strategy
• Successive optimisation / resourcing Development
• Performance Management
• Optimisation – ‘what if…’ Operations
• Business / finance processes
• Impacts of opportunities / threats
Business Planning
• Optimizing the allocation of gas reservoirs to meet short/medium/long term gas contracts
• Providing a timely solution for changing circumstances
• modeling all the elements with optimal detail to achieve practical solutions for production allocation
• Unique Challenges due to: – The Multi-product Network
– Nonlinear Pressure-Flowrate relationships in the wells and the trunkline network
– Production sharing contracts
– Operational Rules
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential 9
Gas Planning Challenges
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Striking the Right Balance
• Market driven approach
– Allows definition of complex markets (LNG, DomGas)
• Campaign triggering
• Complete control over production allocation
– Priorities and ranks
• Fully compositional
– Allows tracking of components from subsurface to markets
• Robust and very fast computational engine for solving multi-objective optimization problems
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
GasAssure’s Unique Capabilities
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2013 12
Fully Integrated Solution
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
GasAssure Interface
Track production rate
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
GasAssure Interface
Demand
Deliverability
Threshold
NEN Trigger
• Markets – Back allocation to platforms and meters
– Fuel usage
– Exact histories (monthly / daily)
• Platforms – Allocations to products, markets, fuel & flare
• Facility Meters – Allocations to products and markets, fuel & flare
– Back allocations to platforms
• Reservoirs – Reserves allocated to products and markets
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Reporting
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Customized Data Reporting
Easy export option
Technical Insights
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
• Technical Design Objective
– Optimize production allocation from Gas Reservoirs to meet market demand
– Nonlinear Pressure and Rate solution
– Multi Objective optimization • With Market demand specification (gas quality, rates etc)
• Facilities with their demands and constraints
• Platforms with constraints
• Fuel usage and Product recovery
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Reservoir to Market Optimization
• Reservoir options – Simple & connected Material Balance tanks
– Compositional
– Multi-layer
– Aquifer & depletion models
• Well description – Multiple completions
– Multiphase flow – tables or correlations
– Wellbore models simple & discretised
• Platform – Automatic event controls
– Constraint rollbacks
– Fuel, flare and product allocation accounting
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Technical Features
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Platforms and Wells
Reservoir Tanks with
Interconnections Wellhead with multiple reservoir
completion
Platform connecting Two
Wellheads
• Facilities Features – Arbitrary facilities with pressure drop functions
– Choke models
– Gas plant and separation
– Compression models
• Network Solver – Back allocation from markets
– Optimised supply match to markets each time-step
• Markets & Contracts – Multiple product delivery point
– Individual or notional contracts by product
– Delivery pressure, ranked, energy or rate, compositional
– Spot market
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Technical Features
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Facilities and Pipelines
• Nodes/Compressors/ExitNodes form GasAssure Facilities
• Allow hydrocarbons to be removed as Fuel/recovery
Pipeline are colored
Dark/Light Blue – HP/LP
• Pipelines provide flow connections and pressure drop models provide essential physics for back pressure.
• Provide mechanism to
– Represent contractual demands
– Apply safety buffer for production to meet ‘Peak demand’
– Control gas quality
– Assign ranks to assist allocation
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Markets
• Mixed contract environment – Long / medium / short term
– Short term opportunity vs. long term obligations
• Compositional deliverability forecasting – LNG, domgas, power, LPG, C2, C3, etc.
– Blended stream / product specs range
– Gas plant products optimised for markets
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Strategic Market Planning
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Simple to Complex Models
• Easy Data entry and Quality check
• Quickly navigate and find information on required nodes in network
• Manage multiple node information in same window – Data Management View
– Gantt Chart for Node Status/Downtime
– Sensitivity Analysis
– Split networks – using Subnetworks/External Networks
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Data Handling
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Data Management View
Double Click to identify
Edit and QC property
Values
Open Tables to Edit
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Gantt Chart
• Easily manage when a field is expected to be onstream • Find whether certain node status has been set for maintenance/workover etc
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Sub-Networks
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
External Networks
• Methods for handling system downtime or Derating
– Average system availability entered as part of Market Demand
– Downtime entered throughout the system (Well, Platform, Facilities and Compression)
– Option to specify actual offstream dates for planned outages
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
System Availability
Cutting-edge IAM for gas planning solution
Fully integrated “reservoir to market” gas planning solution
Modern, clean and intuitive user interface
Fast, robust core processing
Infinitely flexible reporting
Long history as corporate gas planning solution in large E&P companies
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Conclusion
• Software evaluation
– Desktop edition of GasAssure provided for testing
– SSL work with client to understand specific gas planning issues
– SSL build indicative model for testing
• Pilot Study
– Workshop with client to understand complete gas planning requirements, workflow, inputs and outputs
– SSL build complete model
– SSL build detailed reports as per requirements
– Full consultation and support provided through the process
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Next Steps
33
• Mixed markets – long term LNG contracts
– local domgas & LPG
• Specification range modeling – blended supplies from multiple fields
– ensure compositional ranges satisfied in future
• LNG train expansion issues – deliverability specification
– local domgas contracts
Case Study: North West Shelf LNG Expansion
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
• Peak gas > 1 Bscf/d winter
• Multiple markets – domgas, power, industry, C2
• Gippsland Basin gas deliverability – focused on reservoir / well performance
– pipeline interference effects
Case Study: Bass Strait
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
• Gas planning objectives: – variable demand statistics – allocate demand back to fields and optimise liquids – automatic recompletions & well tie-ins – facilities and equipment scheduling
• Seasonal and daily capacity issues – peaks within day as well as multi-day peak in month – delivery and market demand statistics
• Hourly supply / demand and linepack
• Improved “Quality of Service” – extracting value from the supply chain
Case Study: Bass Strait
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
• Southern Cone Gas Delivery System – 100 reservoirs, incl. Gas condensate.
– over 300 wells
– trunk line through fields
– export line to Brazil
– trunk spur to AltoPlano / La Paz
• GasPlan primary profiling tool for export planning – market analysis / export volumes
– basis profile for World Bank financing
– source volumes by proven, probable and possible
Case Study: Bolivia YPF-B & BHPP
PANAMA
NICARAGUA
COSTA RICA
FRENCHG UIANASURINAME
GUYANA
CHILE
ECUADOR
PARAGUAY
URUGUAY
ARGENTINA
BOLIVIA
COLOMBIA
VENEZUELA
PERU
BRAZIL
FALKLAND ISLANDS
SOUTH GEORGIA ISLAND
Caribbean Sea
Macapa
Serro Do Navio
Antofagasta
Arica
Concepcion
Iquique
Puerto Montt
Valparaiso
Cucuta
Mitu
Chiclayo
Huaraz
Puno
T alara
T rujil lo
Bahia Blanca
Comodoro Rivadavia
Cordoba
Mar Del PlataNeuquen
Puerto Santa Cruz
Rawson
Resistencia
Rio Gallegos
Salta
San Carlos de Bariloche
San Miguel De T ucuman
Ushuaia
Santa Cruz
T arija
Alvorada
AracajuBarreiras
Boa Vista
Boa Vista
Cachimbo
Campo Grande
CanavieirasCuiaba
Florianopolis
Gurupi
ImperatrizJacareacanga
Maceio
Porto Velho
Rio Branco
SantaremSao Luis
T arauaca
T efe
T eresina
Vitoria
Valdivia
Pasto
Baquerizo Moreno
Cuenca
Camopi
Bluefields
Ayacucho
Cerro De Pasco
Cuzco
Huancayo
Huanuco
Ica
Iquitos
Orellana
Durazno
T acuarembo
Puerto Ayacucho
Rosario
Belem
Belo Horizonte
Campinas
Curi tiba
Fortaleza
Goiania
Manaus
Porto Alegre
Recife
Rio De Janeiro
Salvador
Sao Paulo
Medel lin
Guayaquil
Valencia
Sao Goncalo
Barranquil la
La Paz
Sucre
Brasilia
Santiago
Bogota
San Jose
Quito
Port Stanley
Cayenne
St. GeorgeÕs
Georgetown
Panama
Castries
Paramaribo
Montevideo
Caracas
Buenos Aires
Managua
Asuncion
Lima
Kingstown
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
• 10 field development required
– Model reservoirs, wells, facilities, and pipe
• Optimise location, size & scheduling by NPV and ROR
– wells, compression, pipelines, facilities
– includes CO2 & dehydration
• Costing detail in model
– drilling learning
– CAPEX allocation schedules
Case Study: In Salah Gas, Algeria
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
• Santos Ltd.
– Model tuning objective
• 15 fields, 29 wells (38 completions), 3 compressors & 2 separators
• Highlighted systemic fluid allocation errors to wells and completions
• Production forecasting
– well scheduling & other installations
– fluid allocations / well management
Case Study: Daralingie Satellite S.A.
Stochastic Simulation Copyright © 2014 - Confidential
Copyright © 2013