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Global Energy and Climate Outlook
GECO 2015 -Road to Paris
Zoi Vrontisi
Labat, A., Kitous, A., Perry, M., Saveyn, B., Vandyck, T., and Vrontisi, Z.
European Commission – JRC
IPTS Sevilla
Our Common Future Under Climate Change
International Scientific Conference
7-10 JULY 2015 Paris, France
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Trade
31 industries Households
Government
POLES GEM-E3
GHG emission paths
Power mix
Data sources: GTAP8 Eurostat ILO OECD
Employment Production Imports
Consumption Investment Exports
Macro Assumptions
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www.gem-e3.net
• World GHG emissions by sector – all sectors on board
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• Baseline • Global mitigation scenario
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• World GHG emission reductions (excl. LULUCF)
By sector By technology option
• Global decarbonisation of power sector
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• Lower GHG emission intensity and per capita – all
countries on board
• GDP impacts of Global Mitigation scenario
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• GDP growth rates are maintained
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• Smart Implementation of fiscal policies
higher growth rates
• The impact on employment per sector
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Global Mitigation scenario as a % change from Baseline scenario,
2030
Conclusions:
All sectors and countries need to get on board to achieve the 2°C target
The energy system will undergo a substantial transformation
Global action to cut emissions is compatible with robust economic
growth
Region-specific results can be found in the GECO 2015 Report
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• Thank you for your attention
• https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/news/geco-road-paris-
study-published
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Additional slides
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• Carbon values
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• Baseline • Global mitigation scenario
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• Emission mitigation options: global
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• Global final energy consumption
EU
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USA
China India
Regional GHG
Emissions (Mt CO2e)
Projections in Global mitigation scenarios/ Not policy prescriptive
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Baseline Global Mitigation Action
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• Cumulative CO2 emissions 2010-2050
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