biosecurity built on science

Quarantine and surveillance modelling for horticulture biosecurity threats

Peter Baxtera & Grant Hamiltonb

[a] Postdoctoral research fellow & [b] Senior lecturer in ecology – biosecurityQueensland University of Technology

Plant Biosecurity Cooperative Research Centre

biosecurity built on science

What is the problem?

Incursion detection- rapid decisions about how to respond - quarantine zones, surveillance

Decisions in the face of uncertainty- initially with limited data - how to obtain new data - how to adapt our response to emerging data- when to declare a result

Briefly summarize the specific problem or issue that your research is addressing?

biosecurity built on science

What are we doing about it?

How will your research address the problem or issue?

Decision making for eradication and quarantine create applied methods that support decision makers

- surveillance, setting quarantine zones, eradications

methods, protocols and software - improve quarantine limits - optimise eradication strategies- grow capacity to make scientifically robust decisions

gather data from incursions to inform models

biosecurity built on science

What are we doing about it?

Panama

Model for Panama Tropical Race 4 pathogen spread and control

- risk networks: socio-economic, environmental, storms

insights into successful incursion responses- don’t over-focus around known infected sites

Baxter, Parnell & Hamilton (2015). MODSIM2015: 1261-1267.Quarantine and surveillance strategies for plant pathogen detection and control.

useful rules and tools- heat-maps of priority sites; smarter strategies overall

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Basis for surveillance

weeks weeks

proximity E[risk]

biosecurity built on science

What are we doing about it?

UAV

Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveillance how do flight-plans perform faced with

- detection errors- organism’s spatial ecology

best speed/height to detect single occurrence, impact?Best performing UAV flight plans

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Baxter & Hamilton (2015). MODSIM2015: 1393-1398Fine-tuning of unmanned aerial surveillance for ecological systems.

high+fast

biosecurity built on science

What are we doing about it?

Q-fly and Canker

Queensland fruit-fly:- led by Susan Fuller (QUT), Bernie Dominiak (NSW-DPI)- population genetic structure around Fruit Fly Exclusion Zone- does a detection mean establishment or merely incidental?

Citrus canker:- initial workshop key points for decision process- how can we improve on eradication decisions?

biosecurity built on science

Scientific communication- publications; conferences; plain-English summaries

Software development- and train the trainers

How will this research be delivered?

0 1priority

Detections

Surveillance:

Free movementLess movementZero movement

biosecurity built on science

Who will benefit from this research?

End users state government

- smart, dynamic decisions throughout response

surveillance providers (governmental or commercial)

Beneficiaries state governments and Australia

- pest free declarations etc.

horticultural growers/industry- bananas, citrus, many more

biosecurity built on science

Benefit for our horticultural industries

Improvements in: knowledge:

- smart decisions

production and productivity:- better pest detection response and control

capacity and skills:- better equipped responders and decision makers

biosecurity operations and market access:- quarantine zones tailored to risk- confident about containment, eradication and area freedom

biosecurity built on science

End-User Advocate’s Perspective

“This project will create models and processes to assist with surveillance, decision making for quarantine zones and eradication strategies.

Uncertainty is symptomatic of many biosecurity responses, and its treatment and depiction in these model outputs could prove useful as a guide to future similar incursions.

The model framework will be adaptable to diverse future incursions … providing insights into how decisions are made during the response, [and] … leading to outputs and tools that can actually be used to change future incursion responses.

Other aspects of the project … will have implications for the maintenance or restoration of Area Freedom [and] provide insight into strategies of hierarchical surveillance.

- Mike Ashton, QDAF, End-User Advocate PBCRC-2100

biosecurity built on science

Future directions and opportunities

Role of social connections- how to get good data- updating with tracing information- compliance, cooperation and ethics

Transition model results to real tools and actions

Legacy/continuity- ongoing expertise to run and use models

biosecurity built on science

Thank you

For more information, please email:- g.hamilton @qut.edu.au- p3.baxter @qut.edu.au

PBCRC is established and supported under the Australian Government Cooperative Research Centres Programme

Project team: Bernie Dominiak (NSW) Ceri Pearce (Qld) John Weiss (Vic) Rune Rasmussen (QUT) Susan Fuller (QUT)