Pathway to the Global BrainWhat is the nature of the next human metasystem

transition?

*An evolutionary anthropological perspective on a matter of cybernetics

“Biological intelligence is a fleeting phase in the evolution of the universe.”

- Paul Davies

The Pathway for Today1. Human Metasystem Transitions (HMST)– Hunting, Agriculture, Industry– Patterns: • New energy, communication, transportation• Timing & diffusion

2. HMST = individual/institutional restructuring mechanisms

3. HMST implications for the “Global Brain”

Metasystem Transitions• How do systems achieve higher order/control?

• System-level continuity (Smith & Szathmáry, 2000)

– Smaller entities: • Form larger entities and differentiate • Unable to reproduce in absence of larger entities • Disrupt development of larger entities

• “Discrete jumps” / “Quantum of evolution” (Heylighen & Joslyn, 1995)

The Human System• New order/control achieved three times– Hunting, Agriculture, Industry

• Exploitation of new energy– Meat / Domestication / Fossil Fuels

• New communication medium– Language / Writing / Printing Press

• New transportation/agent networks– Regional / Continental / Inter-continental

Hominin Energy

• Great Apes– Fruit, leaves, other plant types– Chimps (3% animal meat) (e.g., Basabose, 2002; Moscovice et al., 2007)

– Gorillas/Bonobos (~0-1% animal meat) (Oelze et al., 2011; Rogers et al., 2004)

• Pre-Homo hominids– 4mya similar to extant great apes (Sponheimer et al., 2013)

– 4-2mya shift to grasses, sedges, bark (Henry et al., 2012)

Hunting• Emergence of genus Homo (2 mya)

– Regular consumption of animal meat (Schoeninger, 2012)

– Site in East Turkana, Kenya (1.95 mya) (Braun et al., 2010)

• Substantial increase in animal meat (1.7 mya - 200 kya)– Control of fire (Beaumont, 2011) – Body & brain size increase (Antón, 2003)

– Total energy expenditure (TEE) (Aiello & Key, 2002)

– Complex technoculture (Ambrose, 2001) / “the ratchet” (Tennie et al., 2009)

• Modern human H&G– Consumed 45-65% energy from animal meat (Cordain et al., 2000)

Communication (#1)• Gradual emergence of language (Dunbar, 2003) – Three/four main “movements” (Gamble et al., 2011)

– H. erectus / H. heidelbergensis / H. sapiens (Ambrose, 2001)

• Culture code / symbolic species (Deacon, 1997)

– Shift: percept-based to concept-based thinking (Logan, 2007)

– Theory of Mind (story-telling, “religion”, “science”) (Dunbar, 2009)

• Stabilizing of “The Ratchet” (Tennie et al., 2009)

– First evidence of multi-generational technoculture

Transportation (#1)

• Absolute group sizes increase (~150-250)– Exponential increase (Dunbar, 2003)

– Mechanism: grooming to language (Gamble et al., 2011)

• Range expansion (two-stage) (Ambrose, 2001)

– Stage 1: Out-of-Africa (1.8-1.0 mya)• Small ranges (10-20km) / restricted to temperate climes

– Stage 2: Global expansion (~500-100 kya)• Larger ranges (100+km) / all climes

Agriculture• Seven independent centers (11-3 kya) (Diamond & Bellwood, 2003)

– Eurasia (3)– Americas (3)– Africa (1)

• Same system-level patterns (Morris & Farrar, 2010)

– Cultivation of plants / domestication of large animals– “Full farming” sedentary complex villages– Big towns w/ fortressed walls & buildings related to politics/death– Proto-writing writing

• Intensification dependent on “crop/animal complexes” (Diamond, 1997)

– Eurasia > Americas > Africa > Australia

• Diffusion dependent on: (Bellwood & Oxenham, 2008) – Climate/axis, neighbouring systems

Communication (#2)

• Four independent writing centers (Trigger, 2004)

– Mesopotamia, Egypt, China, Central America

• Response to increased socio-political complexity– Organization of administration, taxes, trade (Cooper, 2004)

• Gradual evolution (centuries/millennia)

• Alphabet brings speech/writing together (Stewart, 2010)

– Investment in narration

Transportation (#2)

• Continental civilizations with as many as 10–100 m agents

• Mechanisms:– Agricultural intensification (energy) (Mazoyer & Roudart, 2006)

– Writing (communication) (Cooper, 2004)

– E.g., Yuan Dynasty (Taagepera, 1997), Roman Empire (Taagepera, 1979)

• Gradual – Limits – Outliers– 11-3 kya – likely no civilization >10 million (Morris & Farrar, 2010; Simmons, 2011)

– 5% net primary productivity (NPP) (Haberl, 2006)

– Mongols, Spanish/Portuguese Empires

Industry

• One independent center (Allen, 2009)

– England (~1750-1800)

• Exploitation of fossil fuels (Haberl, 2006) – Coal, oil, natural gas– *also – nuclear, hydro, “renewables”

• System pattern

• Diffusion dependent on:– Geography / colonial power / sovereignty

Communication (#3)

• Printing press (1450-1800) (Harnad, 1991)

– Mass communication restructure society

• Industrial-scale printing press (19th century)– Global diffusion (Dittmar, 2011)

• First “one-to-many” medium (Dewar, 1998)

– Causative effects: Renaissance, Scientific revolution(s), Enlightenment (Eisenstein, 1980)

Transportation (#3)

• Groups / Empires / Countries / Organizations– Inter-continental, International, Global (Ferguson, 2004)

– As many as 1-2 billion agents (Smith, 1991)

• Transportation mechanisms for growth:– Steam engines/ships (19th century) (Geels, 2002)

– Automobiles/planes (20th century) (Smil, 2005)

• Dependent on: (Landes, 2003)

– Industrial intensification (energy) – Access to information (communication)

Timing and Diffusion

• Timing between transitions decrease:– Hunting: 2 mya – 200 kya– Agriculture: 10 kya – 2000 C.E.– Industry: 1750 C.E. – present

• Diffusion between start and end increases– Hunting required 500k yrs – 1m yrs to mature– Agriculture required 10k yrs to mature– Industry will require 300 – 400 yrs to mature

Restructuring (#1)

• Hunting/Language enabled everything we consider human:– Science– Religion– Medicine– Symbolic relationships (politics, marriage)– Complex technoculture

• Centered around individual and/or small groups

Restructuring (#2)

• Agriculture/Writing enabled the development of highly centralized institutions:– Chiefdoms, Monarchies, etc. – Pharaohs, Kings, etc.• Religion, science, marriage, medicine all effectively run

through these institutions

• Degree of centralization makes them inherently unintelligent – Challenge Propagation

Restructuring (#3)

• Industry/Printing Press enable a shift towards decentralization– Politics: religious blood-lines to democratically-elected

career politicians– Religion: separated from other challenge propagation

centers– Science/medicine: established as independent

institutions– Marriage: gradually detached from religion

• Global Brain philosophy– Individual rights (Enlightenment)

The Next Transition?

• The past 100 years:– Technological singularity (Ulam, 1958; Vinge, 1993; Kurzweil, 2005)

– Global brain (Russel, 1985; Bloom, 2000; Heylighen, 2011)

– The great transition (Raskin, 2010)

– World brain (Wells, 1938)

– Noosphere (Teilhard, 1969)

– The omega point (Schmidhuber, 2006; Teilhard, 1955)

• Emerging realization:– Something “big” on the near-term horizon– Usually imagined as: “global” “collective” “planetary” “generally

positive” “new stage of evolution”– Usually includes: advanced intelligence / end of biological humans

Global Brain as HMST• Energy:

– Solar, geothermal, nuclear fusion, wind (?)– Emergent source (?)

• Communication: – Internet at full maturity (“global brain”)

• Transportation:– Global civilization – 10-12 billion+ agents– Mechanisms: hyperloop (?)

• Emergence:– Timing: 2040-2050– Diffusion: 1-2 decades

Restructuring (#4) (2040s)• Politics

– Completely decentralized (global distributed voting)

• Religion– Completely decentralized (religion “as institution” gone)– Spirituality (?) / Humanism or Transhumanism (?)

• Science/University– Complete open access / funded directly by public

• Marriage/Sex– Institutionalized pair bonds will not exist / decentralization of sex

Complete HMST Theory• Energy and communication feedback loop:– Hunting / Language – Agriculture / Writing – Industry / Printing Press– Solar / Internet

• Transportation:– Regional / Continental / Inter-continental / Global– 250 / 10-100m / 1-2b / 10-12b

• Timing & Diffusion– Exponential

Global Brain• Will the next HMST close “human” feedback

loop?

• Will higher consciousness emerge?

• Will higher systems-level reproduction emerge?

• Will this be a post-human era?

Thanks for Listening!

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