Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Alexey Turchin, Brian Green
Nuclear submarines as global catastrophic
risk shelters
Foundation Science for Life Extension [email protected]
Seth Baum Isolated refuges for surviving global catastrophes
http://sethbaum.com/ac/2015_Refuges.html
Nuclear submarines are designed to be robust
survivors
Surface independence criteria: • 0.5 - 5 years autonomy • At least 400 meters below surface • Could move throughout the ocean
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are designed to be robust
survivors
Military-grade survivability: • Protection from pressure and shock waves • Hiddenness • Air independence • Radiation protection
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are the cheapest solution
SSBN are cheaper than space colonies: • They are already exist • 1 trillion dollars spent on refining submarine
technology • Collectively thousands of years of experience • Rate of accidents becomes very low
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines designed to survive
nuclear warSubs were designed with nuclear war survival in mind • Blast and EMP protection • Radiation protection • Able to move to Southern hemisphere, where will be less
radiation • Able to go to the equator, where will be less ice in case of the
nuclear winter • Able to survive under ice • Not easy targets
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are the cheapest solution
SSBNs could serve as refuges while continuing to perform other functions: • Worldwide, there are 20 subs in the sea everyday • Women are already in crews • Addition of seeds, books and data could convert
them into refuges with small investment
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are better than bunkers• They can move and not easy targets • Could move to the safest place • No looters or “infected friends” • No need for air and water tubes on surface • No heat dissipation problem • Could go deeper because ocean is colder (no thermal
gradient problem) • Already have nuclear power • Information isolation: no Internet on board
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines are better than Mars colony
• They already exist • They are proved to be safe • They are cheaper even in best realisation ерт
smallest Mars colony • Mars colony autonomy is impossible without self-
replicating robots, which creates new risks • Mars colony is easy target in case of war
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines have their own energy source
• 25-50 years of operation for contemporary reactors
• No heat dissipation problem • No need for fuel or air • Could be replaced by water turbines, generating
electricity from currents
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines: own supplies
• Oxygen generation from water • Water desalination • Plankton filtering is possible as source of food
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines could provide survival for
different catastrophes:• Nuclear war with large radiological contamination and
nuclear winter • Biological war or pandemic, especially slow and hidden • Asteroid impacts and nuclear winter • Short term but intense global warming • Mutiny of a drone army • Gamma ray burst • Supervoclanic event
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Nuclear submarines will not help for too large high-tech catastrophe
• Unfriendly AI • Grey goo of nanobots • LHC catastrophe creates mini blackhole
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Food for 5 years could be stored in missile shafts
• Unfriendly AI • Grey goo of nanobots • LHC catastrophe creates mini blackhole
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Ohio-class SSBN has crew of 155
• Minimal survivable population is around 100 • Eggs and sperm could be frozen • Starting in 2010, women joined US submarine
crews
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Submarine needs a remote island to dock
• Submarines are good for surviving a short-term, intense event
• Islands are good for long-term survival of medium intensity event
• Islands could be good starting points for human recovery
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Levels of realisation of the project:
• Cheap: add some books and seeds to already existing subs,1 mln USD, 6 month survival.
• Medium: convert decommissioned Ohio-class submarine in “Yellow submarine”, 1 bn USD, 5 years survival.
• High: create fleet of the ark-submarines from scratch, 200 bn USD (still cheaper than ISS) - 20 years survival.
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Funding• Negative price is possible: Navy could pay
from its advertising budgets for small scale realisation
• Billionaires: Personal refuge + yacht + recreational home + wildlife observation
• Space programs: Nuclear submarines could be test environment for long-term survival in space
Turchin, Alexey, and Brian Patrick Green. "Aquatic refuges for surviving a global catastrophe." Futures 89 (2017): 26-37.
Conclusion• Nuclear submarines could be effective refuges from several types of global
catastrophes
• Existing military submarines could be upgraded for this function with relatively low cost
• Contemporary submarines could provide several months of surface independence
• A specially designed fleet of nuclear submarines could potentially survive years or even decades under water
• Nuclear submarine refuges could be a step towards the creation of space refuges
The Map of Shelters and Refuges from Global Risks (Plan B of X-risks Prevention)
On the ground
© Alexey Turchin, 2016, CC3.0
Distance from typical habitats
Underground On the sea Under the sea
Antarctic bases
Number of shelters: more than 10Number of people: hun-dredsIndependent survivabil-ity: 1-5 yearsAbility to re-create civi-lization: highVulnerability: mediumBest protection against: pandemics, nuclear winter, fallout
Uncontacted tribes
Number of shelters: around 10 Number of people: tho-sandsIndependent survivabil-ity: thousands yearsAbility to re-create civili-zation: mediumVulnerability: highBest protection against: some types of pandemics
Remote villages
Number of shelters: thou-sands or moreNumber of people: millionsIndependent survivabil-ity: almost indefiniteAbility to re-create civili-zation: highVulnerability: mediumBest protection against: pandemics
Random survivors
Number of shelters: de-pends of type of catastropheNumber of people: un-knownIndependent survivabil-ity: monthsAbility to re-create civili-zation: lowVulnerability: highBest protection against: stochastic events
Air planes
Tesla carswith biosafety
systemNumber of shelters: many thousandsNumber of people: thou-sandsIndependent survivabil-ity: daysAbility to re-create civili-zation: mediumVulnerability: highBest protection against: pandemicPrice: included
“Clever” houses with reinforcement
Number of shelters: mil-lions??Number of people: millionsIndependent survivabil-ity: monthsAbility to re-create civili-zation: highVulnerability: highBest protection against: pandemics, small impacts and nuclear warPrice: high
Mines, caves and subways
Number of shelters: thou-sandsNumber of people: millionsIndependent survivabil-ity: daysAbility to re-create civili-zation: highVulnerability: highBest protection against: explosions and acute fallout
Bomb sheltersand commercial shelters
Number of shelters: many thousandsNumber of people: millionsIndependent survivabil-ity: days, may be weeksAbility to re-create civili-zation: highVulnerability: mediumBest protection against: explosions and acute fallout
Cold war com-mand centers and underground citiesNumber of shelters: around 10Number of people: unknown, may-be hundredsIndependent survivability: yearsAbility to re-create civilization: highVulnerability: could be targeted in warBest protection against: explo-sions, fallout, pandemics
Very deep shelters
1 km deep with independent energy sources
Number of shelters: severalNumber of people: thousandsIndependent survivability: yearsAbility to re-create civilization: mediumVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human hostile actionBest protection against: pan-demicPrice: very high, many billions dol-lars
Risks: it could be places which benefit from extinction event, start an attack or make secret danger-ous research
ShipsNumber of shelters: many thousandsNumber of people: millionsIndependent survivabil-ity: 1 year for some, may be moreAbility to re-create civili-zation: highVulnerability: mediumBest protection against: explosions, pandemics
IslandsNumber of shelters: thousandsNumber of people: mil-lionsIndependent survivabil-ity: indefiniteAbility to re-create civi-lization: highVulnerability: mediumBest protection against: pandemics
Sea steadingIndependent living communities
at sea
Number of shelters: severalNumber of people: thousandsIndependent survivability: yearsAbility to re-create civiliza-tion: mediumVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human hostile ac-tionBest protection against: pan-demicPrice: very high, billions dollars
Nuclear submarines
Number of shelters: 10-100Number of people: thou-sandsIndependent survivabil-ity: around 1 yearAbility to re-create civili-zation: highVulnerability: mediumBest protection against: explosions and acute fallout
Specially rebuiltnuclear submarine
(“project Yellow submarine”)
Number of shelters: severalNumber of people: thousandsIndependent survivability: yearsAbility to re-create civilization: mediumVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human hostile actionBest protection against: pandemicPrice: very high
Risks: could be targeted during nu-clear war
Could provide defence against gam-ma-ray burst with large surface radia-tion levels
Underwater town
seems not to have much value as it would be
vulnerable
International space station
Number of shelters: 1Number of people: 6Independent survivabil-ity: 3 monthes- 1 yearsAbility to re-create civili-zation: lowVulnerability: highBest protection against: short, but covering all earth surface catastrophe (air-borne pandemics)
Moon base
Number of shelters: oneNumber of people: dozensIndependent survivability: yearsAbility to re-create civilization: lowVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human hostile actionBest protection against: pandemicPrice: dozens of billions dollars
Risks: could be converted into nu-clear military base by state actor, and used in nuclear war, or attacked
Mars base(Musk plan)
Number of shelters: oneNumber of people: thousand or even millionIndependent survivability: indefiniteAbility to re-create civilization: medium, de-pends of robotics and many unknownsVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human hostile actionBest protection against: pandemics, impacts, earth-limited catastrophes, including collider acci-dents and grey gooPrice: trillions of dollars
Risks: could be targeted in space war or participate in it as actorRisks: transportation fleet could be used as kinetic weaponRisks: opportunity cost because of high price
Orion nuclear powered
generation ship
Number of shelters: oneNumber of people: thousand or even millionIndependent survivability: hundreds of yearsAbility to re-create civilization: medium, depends of many unknownVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human hostile action, high probability of accidents and failure in-side the shipBest protection against: pandemics, impacts, earth-limited catastrophes, including collider accidents and grey gooPrice: trillions of dollars
Risks: could be targeted in space war or participate in it as actorRisks: the ship itself could explode, be used as a weapon or a source of weapons, as it has 100 000 nukes for propulsionRisks: opportunity cost because of high price
Time
Ref
uges
tha
t ar
e cu
rren
tly
in e
xist
ence
; Ty
pes
of r
isks
: nu
clea
r w
ar,
mul
ti-p
ande
mic
s, s
uper
volc
anic
exp
losi
onCou
ld b
e bu
ilt u
sing
exi
stin
g te
ch in
10-
30 y
ears
Hig
h te
ch s
helter
s ag
ains
t hi
-tec
h risk
s, w
hich
co
uld
be b
uilt a
fter
30-
100
year
s fr
om n
ow
Ship wrecks, rafts
Number of shelters: de-pends of a type of a catas-tropheNumber of people: un-known, maybe hundredsIndependent survivabil-ity: monthsAbility to re-create civili-zation: lowVulnerability: high to natu-ral causesBest protection against: pandemics
Remote moons in So-lar system, comets, asteroids, Oort cloud
Use of self-replicating ro-bots and manufacturing
nanotechnology for build-ing infrastructure, creation
of millions of habitats
Number of shelters: millionsNumber of people: millionsIndependent survivability: indefiniteAbility to re-create civilization: highVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to unfriendly AIBest protection against: pandemics, im-pacts, earth-limited catastrophes, includ-ing collider accidents and grey gooPrice: may be the small, just one first na-norobot
Risks of space war or space grey gooRisks of kinetic space weaponsRisks of extremely large artificial explo-sions inside gas planets or of the creation of very large nukesRisk of wrong command to the whole sys-tem
Distributed net of survivalists
Includes hoards with foodTrained people
Number of shelters: depends of type of catastropheNumber of people: thousands?Independent survivability: monthsAbility to re-create civilization: highVulnerability: highBest protection against: stochastic events, pandemics, nuclear war
High speed nano-starships, starting coloni-
sation waveNumber of shelters: millionsNumber of people: DNA sam-ples or uploadsIndependent survivability: highAbility to re-create civiliza-tion: highVulnerability: low to natural risks, medium to unfriendly AIBest protection against: al-most everything except false vacuum decay and strong UFAIPrice: may be the small, just one first nanorobot
Risks of space war or space grey gooRisks of laser weapons based in space which are able to target everything
Nanotech based homes
are able to with-stand any external influences as adap-tive shield
Nanotech based microscopic
shelters
Deep in Earth’s crust, which are running humans as uploads and are in-visible to any exter-nal hostile surveil-lance.
Immortal bodies
Upgraded human be-ings able to survive in space and any hostile environment
Isolated biospheres
Closed cycle projects
Number of shelters: severalNumber of people: thousands?Independent survivability: yearsAbility to re-create civiliza-tion: highVulnerability: highBest protection against: pan-demics, nuclear war
Digital shelters
Something like secret location of uploads in global digital network, or secret recordings of human DNA and con-
nectome
They may help to sur-vive some form of Un-friendly AI, if it is not
omnipotent
Special anti-ex-tinction shelter in remote place
as suggested by Karim Jebari
Number of shelters: at least oneNumber of people: 100Independent survivability: 30+ yearsAbility to re-create civiliza-tion: highVulnerability: low to natural risks, medieum to human hostile actionBest protection against: pan-demic, nuclear warPrice: from 2 to 15 billions dol-larsPlace: secret fertile land (Alaski-an island?)Power: nuclear
In near space Remote space
Doomsday vaultfacilities which will help to rec-reate civilization by preserving important knowledge, instru-ments, seeds, resources, but
not people
Number of shelters: now oneNumber of people: thousands?Independent survivability: monthsAbility to re-create civilization: highVulnerability: highBest protection against: sto-chastic events, pandemics, nuclear war
Converting ALL existing
nuclear submarines in temporary asylums in short notice (~6 months)
Special refug-es built exactly to much known type and type
of a catastrophe after warning
“Preppers”People, who prepare to smaller
catastrophe and stock food
Number of people: 3 million people in USIndependent survivability: monthsAbility to re-create civilization: highVulnerability: highBest protection against: stochastic events, pandemics, nuclear war
Food storages, and chemically syn-thesised food, see work of Denken-berger
Phil Torres space bunkers
Basic independent space station
Number of people: 200 in eachIndependent survivability: dec-adesAbility to re-create civilization: highVulnerability: lowBest protection against: stochastic events, pandemics, nuclear war
Very large air blimps
The Map of Shelters and Refuges from Global Risks (Plan B of X-risks Prevention)
On the ground
© Alexey Turchin, 2016, CC3.0
Distance from typical habitats
Underground On the sea Under the sea
Antarctic bases
Number of shelters: more than 10Number of people: hun-dredsIndependent survivabil-ity: 1-5 yearsAbility to re-create civi-lization: highVulnerability: mediumBest protection against: pandemics, nuclear winter, fallout
Uncontacted tribes
Number of shelters: around 10 Number of people: tho-sandsIndependent survivabil-ity: thousands yearsAbility to re-create civili-zation: mediumVulnerability: highBest protection against: some types of pandemics
Remote villages
Number of shelters: thou-sands or moreNumber of people: millionsIndependent survivabil-ity: almost indefiniteAbility to re-create civili-zation: highVulnerability: mediumBest protection against: pandemics
Random survivors
Number of shelters: de-pends of type of catastropheNumber of people: un-knownIndependent survivabil-ity: monthsAbility to re-create civili-zation: lowVulnerability: highBest protection against: stochastic events
Air planes
Tesla carswith biosafety
systemNumber of shelters: many thousandsNumber of people: thou-sandsIndependent survivabil-ity: daysAbility to re-create civili-zation: mediumVulnerability: highBest protection against: pandemicPrice: included
“Clever” houses with reinforcement
Number of shelters: mil-lions??Number of people: millionsIndependent survivabil-ity: monthsAbility to re-create civili-zation: highVulnerability: highBest protection against: pandemics, small impacts and nuclear warPrice: high
Mines, caves and subways
Number of shelters: thou-sandsNumber of people: millionsIndependent survivabil-ity: daysAbility to re-create civili-zation: highVulnerability: highBest protection against: explosions and acute fallout
Bomb sheltersand commercial shelters
Number of shelters: many thousandsNumber of people: millionsIndependent survivabil-ity: days, may be weeksAbility to re-create civili-zation: highVulnerability: mediumBest protection against: explosions and acute fallout
Cold war com-mand centers and underground citiesNumber of shelters: around 10Number of people: unknown, may-be hundredsIndependent survivability: yearsAbility to re-create civilization: highVulnerability: could be targeted in warBest protection against: explo-sions, fallout, pandemics
Very deep shelters
1 km deep with independent energy sources
Number of shelters: severalNumber of people: thousandsIndependent survivability: yearsAbility to re-create civilization: mediumVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human hostile actionBest protection against: pan-demicPrice: very high, many billions dol-lars
Risks: it could be places which benefit from extinction event, start an attack or make secret danger-ous research
ShipsNumber of shelters: many thousandsNumber of people: millionsIndependent survivabil-ity: 1 year for some, may be moreAbility to re-create civili-zation: highVulnerability: mediumBest protection against: explosions, pandemics
IslandsNumber of shelters: thousandsNumber of people: mil-lionsIndependent survivabil-ity: indefiniteAbility to re-create civi-lization: highVulnerability: mediumBest protection against: pandemics
Sea steadingIndependent living communities
at sea
Number of shelters: severalNumber of people: thousandsIndependent survivability: yearsAbility to re-create civiliza-tion: mediumVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human hostile ac-tionBest protection against: pan-demicPrice: very high, billions dollars
Nuclear submarines
Number of shelters: 10-100Number of people: thou-sandsIndependent survivabil-ity: around 1 yearAbility to re-create civili-zation: highVulnerability: mediumBest protection against: explosions and acute fallout
Specially rebuiltnuclear submarine
(“project Yellow submarine”)
Number of shelters: severalNumber of people: thousandsIndependent survivability: yearsAbility to re-create civilization: mediumVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human hostile actionBest protection against: pandemicPrice: very high
Risks: could be targeted during nu-clear war
Could provide defence against gam-ma-ray burst with large surface radia-tion levels
Underwater town
seems not to have much value as it would be
vulnerable
International space station
Number of shelters: 1Number of people: 6Independent survivabil-ity: 3 monthes- 1 yearsAbility to re-create civili-zation: lowVulnerability: highBest protection against: short, but covering all earth surface catastrophe (air-borne pandemics)
Moon base
Number of shelters: oneNumber of people: dozensIndependent survivability: yearsAbility to re-create civilization: lowVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human hostile actionBest protection against: pandemicPrice: dozens of billions dollars
Risks: could be converted into nu-clear military base by state actor, and used in nuclear war, or attacked
Mars base(Musk plan)
Number of shelters: oneNumber of people: thousand or even millionIndependent survivability: indefiniteAbility to re-create civilization: medium, de-pends of robotics and many unknownsVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human hostile actionBest protection against: pandemics, impacts, earth-limited catastrophes, including collider acci-dents and grey gooPrice: trillions of dollars
Risks: could be targeted in space war or participate in it as actorRisks: transportation fleet could be used as kinetic weaponRisks: opportunity cost because of high price
Orion nuclear powered
generation ship
Number of shelters: oneNumber of people: thousand or even millionIndependent survivability: hundreds of yearsAbility to re-create civilization: medium, depends of many unknownVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to human hostile action, high probability of accidents and failure in-side the shipBest protection against: pandemics, impacts, earth-limited catastrophes, including collider accidents and grey gooPrice: trillions of dollars
Risks: could be targeted in space war or participate in it as actorRisks: the ship itself could explode, be used as a weapon or a source of weapons, as it has 100 000 nukes for propulsionRisks: opportunity cost because of high price
Time
Ref
uges
tha
t ar
e cu
rren
tly
in e
xist
ence
; Ty
pes
of r
isks
: nu
clea
r w
ar,
mul
ti-p
ande
mic
s, s
uper
volc
anic
exp
losi
onCou
ld b
e bu
ilt u
sing
exi
stin
g te
ch in
10-
30 y
ears
Hig
h te
ch s
helter
s ag
ains
t hi
-tec
h risk
s, w
hich
co
uld
be b
uilt a
fter
30-
100
year
s fr
om n
ow
Ship wrecks, rafts
Number of shelters: de-pends of a type of a catas-tropheNumber of people: un-known, maybe hundredsIndependent survivabil-ity: monthsAbility to re-create civili-zation: lowVulnerability: high to natu-ral causesBest protection against: pandemics
Remote moons in So-lar system, comets, asteroids, Oort cloud
Use of self-replicating ro-bots and manufacturing
nanotechnology for build-ing infrastructure, creation
of millions of habitats
Number of shelters: millionsNumber of people: millionsIndependent survivability: indefiniteAbility to re-create civilization: highVulnerability: low to natural risks, high to unfriendly AIBest protection against: pandemics, im-pacts, earth-limited catastrophes, includ-ing collider accidents and grey gooPrice: may be the small, just one first na-norobot
Risks of space war or space grey gooRisks of kinetic space weaponsRisks of extremely large artificial explo-sions inside gas planets or of the creation of very large nukesRisk of wrong command to the whole sys-tem
Distributed net of survivalists
Includes hoards with foodTrained people
Number of shelters: depends of type of catastropheNumber of people: thousands?Independent survivability: monthsAbility to re-create civilization: highVulnerability: highBest protection against: stochastic events, pandemics, nuclear war
High speed nano-starships, starting coloni-
sation waveNumber of shelters: millionsNumber of people: DNA sam-ples or uploadsIndependent survivability: highAbility to re-create civiliza-tion: highVulnerability: low to natural risks, medium to unfriendly AIBest protection against: al-most everything except false vacuum decay and strong UFAIPrice: may be the small, just one first nanorobot
Risks of space war or space grey gooRisks of laser weapons based in space which are able to target everything
Nanotech based homes
are able to with-stand any external influences as adap-tive shield
Nanotech based microscopic
shelters
Deep in Earth’s crust, which are running humans as uploads and are in-visible to any exter-nal hostile surveil-lance.
Immortal bodies
Upgraded human be-ings able to survive in space and any hostile environment
Isolated biospheres
Closed cycle projects
Number of shelters: severalNumber of people: thousands?Independent survivability: yearsAbility to re-create civiliza-tion: highVulnerability: highBest protection against: pan-demics, nuclear war
Digital shelters
Something like secret location of uploads in global digital network, or secret recordings of human DNA and con-
nectome
They may help to sur-vive some form of Un-friendly AI, if it is not
omnipotent
Special anti-ex-tinction shelter in remote place
as suggested by Karim Jebari
Number of shelters: at least oneNumber of people: 100Independent survivability: 30+ yearsAbility to re-create civiliza-tion: highVulnerability: low to natural risks, medieum to human hostile actionBest protection against: pan-demic, nuclear warPrice: from 2 to 15 billions dol-larsPlace: secret fertile land (Alaski-an island?)Power: nuclear
In near space Remote space
Doomsday vaultfacilities which will help to rec-reate civilization by preserving important knowledge, instru-ments, seeds, resources, but
not people
Number of shelters: now oneNumber of people: thousands?Independent survivability: monthsAbility to re-create civilization: highVulnerability: highBest protection against: sto-chastic events, pandemics, nuclear war
Converting ALL existing
nuclear submarines in temporary asylums in short notice (~6 months)
Special refug-es built exactly to much known type and type
of a catastrophe after warning
“Preppers”People, who prepare to smaller
catastrophe and stock food
Number of people: 3 million people in USIndependent survivability: monthsAbility to re-create civilization: highVulnerability: highBest protection against: stochastic events, pandemics, nuclear war
Food storages, and chemically syn-thesised food, see work of Denken-berger
Phil Torres space bunkers
Basic independent space station
Number of people: 200 in eachIndependent survivability: dec-adesAbility to re-create civilization: highVulnerability: lowBest protection against: stochastic events, pandemics, nuclear war
Very large air blimps
