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S1. Identifying the forces shaping the future
1
S3.8 From scenarios to action
S0.1 Define the limits of the system
S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces
S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios
S0 – Defining the system
S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future
S2 – Identification of plausible futures
S3 – Definition of a strategy
Detailed steps
2
Objective - Identify all forces that had, have, willhave an influence on the system
Method “Brainstorming” Visualisation and grouping Elimination of duplicates Discussion: relevance + internal/external
Output A list of relevant internal forces A list of relevant external forces
S1.2 Identify the forces of change
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A force of change has the capacity to transform the system
Some rules about identifying a force of change Not a sentence : “Inputs are too expansive”
No negative forms: “Bad weather”
No physical expression : “Money”
What is a force of change ?
Cost of inputs
Access to financial resources Climatic conditions
It must have states that can be identified “Conflicts between local communities and private companies” = is not a force but
“Relations between local communities and private companies” = is a force of change;
and it can take different states such as: Trust; Distrust; Open conflict, Indifference.
Support material: S1.2 Methodological Note 4
External and internal forces
External forces Generally related to more global policy, economic, social,
environmental issues
The actors of the system cannot affect/change them
They usually are very influential on all other forces
Internal forces Generally related to specific issues within the system
They are influenced/controlled by the actors in the system
5
External and internal forces
Why separate them?
External forces strongly influence internal forces. If they are kept together, strong internal forces cannot be identified.
Building scenarios on external forces which cannot be influenced by the actors of the system would mean that actors have no possibility of action.
When separated the analysis is more accurate leading to contextual scenarios and internal scenarios
6
Two risks Too complex (too many forces)
The more the forces, the longer the analysis Co-linearity: forces that behave similarly become drivers Heterogeneity: mixing small and big causes of change
Too simple (not enough forces) Omission: important forces are missing Bias: key dimensions are not considered
Some hints 20 to 60 internal forces (the software handle 73 forces)
Technical, physical, economic, social, policy, cultural Make sense
How many forces of change?
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Organizing a stakholder workshop for the identification of the forces of change
Method
“Brainstorming”
Elimination of duplicates, visualisation and grouping
Discussion: relevance + internal/external
Application
Support material: S1.2 Methodological Note 8
S3.8 From scenarios to action
S0.1 Define the limits of the system
S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces
S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios
S0 – Defining the system
S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future
S2 – Identification of plausible futures
S3 – Definition of a strategy
Detailed steps
9
Objective - Reach an agreement about the meaning of each force
Method
Structured group discussion with the “experts”
Output
A list of definitions to be used in the next steps
S1.3 Define the forces of change
Support material: S1.3 Methodological Note 10
S3.8 From scenarios to action
S0.1 Define the limits of the system
S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces
S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios
S0 – Defining the system
S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future
S2 – Identification of plausible futures
S3 – Definition of a strategy
Detailed steps
11
S1.4 Measure mutual influences
Objective - Estimate the direct influence of each force on all other forces
Method Structural analysis
Estimations of the direct influence {0;1} for each force
Filling an Influence/Dependence Matrix
Output
An Influence/Dependence matrix of all direct influences
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What is a direct influence?
Force 1 has a direct influence on Force 2 only if a change in Force 1 causes an immediate change in Force 2.
If the state of Force 1 changes, then the state of Force 2 also automatically change without needing any other Force to act.
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Common errors when working on direct influences
Confusion in the sense of causality
One believes that A B, but in fact B A
Indirect influence
One believes that A B, but in fact A C B
Co-variation
One believes that A B , but in fact C A and simultaneously C B
A B
C
x
A
C
B
x
A BA B
x
14
The influence/dependence matrix
Action of: on: Force 1 Force 2 Force 3 Force 4
Total
influence
Force 1 1 1
Force 2 1 1 2
Force 3 1 1
Force 4 1 1
Totaldependence
1 2 1 1 5
Force 2 has a direct influence on Force 1 and Force 4
Force 2 has no direct influence on Force 115
The Influence/Dependence matrix
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How do we fill the I/D matrix?
Influence of Force1
0 1
Use a physical support (foam board, flip chart, paper) and cards with the name of the forces and fixing material (needles, glue, tape…)
Example with values from 0 to 1
Force 2
Force 4
Force 3
is
onon
17
How do we fill the I/D matrix?
or
Directly fill the electronic I/D matrix projected on a screen or a wall
18Support material: S1.4 Methodological Note
S3.8 From scenarios to action
S0.1 Define the limits of the system
S1.2 Identify the forces of changeS1.3 Define the forces of changeS1.4 Measure their mutual influences S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces
S2.6 Define the states of the driving forcesS2.7 Build up scenarios
S0 – Defining the system
S1 – Identification of the forces shaping the future
S2 – Identification of plausible futures
S3 – Definition of a strategy
Detailed steps
19
Objective Find the most influential forces in the evolution of the
system - “the driving forces”
Method Interpretation of the matrix and graphs
Global direct influence of each forceGlobal direct and indirect weighted influence Position of the forces in the graphsThe strength of the force
Output A set of key driving forces
S1.5 Unveiling the driving forces
20
The direct influence/dependence Automatically calculated in a table below the direct influence
matrix in the Variables' influence worksheet
The indirect influence/dependence Automatically calculated in the indirect influence matrix and
related tables below it in the Variables' total influ worksheet
The global influence /dependence Automatically calculated in the global influence matrix and
related tables below it in the Variables' total influ worksheet
The global influence matrix is located below the matrix and tables of the indirect influence
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Direct influence Direct dependence
AccEau 9 0,64 AccEau 9 0,64
AccEauPot 11 0,78 AccEauPot 6 0,42
AccEmpAId 15 1,07 AccEmpAId 4 0,28
AccFoncier 11 0,78 AccFoncier 8 0,57
AccIntrant 8 0,57 AccIntrant 8 0,57
AccPresSoc 6 0,42 AccPresSoc 3 0,21
AmenTerr 26 1,85 AmenTerr 22 1,57
CapVRefRur 15 1,07 CapVRefRur 26 1,85
CapGestRur 17 1,21 CapGestRur 25 1,78
Circali 20 1,42 Circali 9 0,64
ConnLoc 23 1,64 ConnLoc 9 0,64
ContrRegAg 31 2,21 ContrRegAg 8 0,57
CoutEner 13 0,92 CoutEner 4 0,28
DispEnerRur 18 1,28 DispEnerRur 12 0,85
EchVillage 9 0,64 EchVillage 13 0,92
EducEnfant 21 1,5 EducEnfant 29 2,07
EmInitLoc 23 1,64 EmInitLoc 36 2,57
EspritJeune 12 0,85 EspritJeune 26 1,85
EvolDeRepRu 13 0,92 EvolDeRepRu 18 1,28
Example of a direct influence and dependence table
Very influent forces
Very independent forces
Coordinates of the forces in the graphs 22
Direct influence Direct dependence
AccEau 9 0,64 AccEau 9 0,64
CapGestRur 17 1,21 CapGestRur 25 1,78
Circali 20 1,42 Circali 9 0,64
ConnLoc 23 1,64 ConnLoc 9 0,64
ContrRegAg 31 2,21 ContrRegAg 8 0,57
CoutEner 13 0,92 CoutEner 4 0,28
DispEnerRur 18 1,28 DispEnerRur 12 0,85
EchVillage 9 0,64 EchVillage 13 0,92
EducEnfant 21 1,5 EducEnfant 29 2,07
EmInitLoc 23 1,64 EmInitLoc 36 2,57
EspritJeune 12 0,85 EspritJeune 26 1,85
EvolDeRepRur 13 0,92 EvolDeRepRur 18 1,28
Example of application of the strength calculation
Same influenceDifferent dependences
The strongest force should be ConnLoc
Calculation of ConnLoc strength: 23/826*(23/(23+9)) = 0,020Calculation of EmInitLoc strength: 23/826*(23/(23+36)) = 0,010
23
The direct, indirect and global strength Automatically calculated in a table below each related matrix (direct,
indirect, global in the corresponding worksheets
The tables are located on the right side of the influence/dependence tables
How is the it calculated? The formula takes into account both its influence and its dependence:
first the influence of the force is divided by the total influence of all forces, and then this result is multiplied by the quotient of the force’s influence by the sum of its influence and dependence
The “strongest” forces are the most influent and the least dependent
The “weakest” forces are the least influent and the most dependent
Calculating strength
Strength (Force 1)=Influence (Force 1)
Sum (all influences)
Influence (Force 1)
(Influence + Dependence) (Force 1) x
24Support material: S1.5 Methodological Note
25
Visualizing the forces of change
Outlyers
Drivers Leverages
Outputs
Bunch forces
High
Low
HighLow
Influence
Dependence
The Influence/Dependence Graphs
26
27
The driving forces are selected first among the drivers
Some driving forces can be leverages
The driving forces are selected among the strongest
Between 4 and 8 is reasonable
Less than 4: a few too simplistic scenarios
More than 8: too many very complex scenarios
28
Control and rules in Agriculture, Fishery and Husbandry
Immigrated population and workers in the rural areas
Infrastructures (roads, harbours, airports) Local know-how and knowledgeModes of production and functionality of
agriculture Land use managementBehavior of the population towards public
authority and the respect of the rules of law
Example of driving forces:the evolution of the rural world in Mayotte
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Graphe des influences/dépendances directes
0000000000000000000000000000000000000000
UrbZonRur
SytRisqEpA
TypeAgric
SpecifTerr
SystEntrSol
SitRisquHum
ServProx
RessHum
ResComm
RemuTrav
RelComVC
QualProdAl
QualEnvRur
PopImmig
PenibTrav
OuvMayExt
OfProdLocOfProdImp
NivPrelRess
MoyTransp
MonEchAg
ModProd
MobMig
MigVilCamp
Medtrad
MainImm
InsertProf
InfraRoute
InfraPort
ModGouvEchVillage
DispEnerRur
CoutEner
ContrRegAg
ConnLoc
Circali
CapGestRur
CapVRefRur
AmenTerr
AccPresSoc
AccEau
AccFoncier
AccIntrant
AccEauPot
AccEmpAId
EducEnfant
EmInitLoc
EspritJeuneEvolDeRepRur
EvolHabAlim
EvolModVie
EvolSecAct
FonctAgr
FormJeunAdul
Imcultur
RoleHF
SecFonc
ZRevenu
ValEcoAg
0
0,5
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5 3
Dépendance
Infl
uen
ce
Droits de propriété intellectuelle: CIRAD - 2010 Auteurs: Robin Bourgeois et
Franck Jésus
LEVIERSMOTEURS
SINGULIERS PRODUITS
Drivers
OutputsOutlyers
Leverages
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Example of selection of driving forcesTotal weighted strength Total weighted strength Total weighted strength Total weighted strength
ContrRegAg 2,71 RessHum 1,21 FormJeunAdul 0,75 QualProdAl 0,44
InfraRoute 2,63 ResComm 1,18 Medtrad 0,75 RoleHF 0,43
MainImm 2,61 UrbZonRur 1,16 SystEntrSol 0,75 ValEcoAg 0,42
ConnLoc 2,07 EmInitLoc 1,14 AccPresSoc 0,71 NivPrelRess 0,42
AmenTerr 2,01 CapGestRur 1,11 SpecifTerr 0,69 EvolSecAct 0,37
PopImmig 2,01 MoyTransp 1,02 MobMig 0,67 Imcultur 0,34
Circali 1,90 EducEnfant 0,99 OfProdImp 0,63 RemuTrav 0,33
InfraPort 1,84 AccFoncier 0,94 SecFonc 0,61 EvolHabAlim 0,33
ModProd 1,83 AccEauPot 0,93 EchVillage 0,58 SitRisqEpA 0,29
FonctAgr 1,66 ModGouv 0,89 QualEnvRur 0,58 InsertProf 0,28
DispEnerRur 1,59 TypeAgric 0,88 AccEau 0,56 SitRisqHum 0,13
CoutEner 1,50 MonEchAg 0,87 RelComVC 0,50 MonEchAg 0,87
AccEmpAId 1,48 MigVilCamp 0,86 OfProdLoc 0,50 MigVilCamp 0,86
Zrevenu 1,42 OuvMayExt 0,84 AccIntrant 0,49 OuvMayExt 0,84
EvolModVie 1,40 CapVRefRur 0,81 EspritJeune 0,47 CapVRefRur 0,81
ServProx 1,28 EvolDeRepRur 0,77 PenibTrav 0,46 EvolDeRepRur 0,77
31
Application
32