Looking to the future

Oscar Alves, Bureau of Meteorology

Plan/Timelines

• 2016 ACCESS-S1: Fast-track basic 60km system in collaboration with UKMO

– Experimental Products Q3 2016– Operational Products mid 2017 (replace current SCO products)– High accuracy– Much higher regional detail (60km vs 250km)

• 2018 ACCESS-S2: Comprehensive 60km version utilising local improvements

– Even Higher accuracy– Tailored for Australian Climate

• 2021/2 ACCESS-S3: 30 km ?

Enhanced resolution

August Mean Rainfall

Obs ACCESS-SPOAMA-2

mm/day

Higher resolution greatly improves the depiction of mean rainfall

Potential skill increase (First month)

GLOSEA-5 Regional Rainfall Skill (above median hit rate for first month)Indication of potential skill increase with higher resolution

CommentsWarning: Based only on 15 years and small ensemble size

Improvements likely to be lower beyond first month (further analyses available shortly)

Region POAMA2 GLOSEA-5 % Improvement

Australia 55.6 62.8 13%

Murray Darling Basin 57.0 62.5 10%

GRDC Western Region 56.4 57.2 1%

Queensland 56.7 65.5 16%

Northern Tropics 50.5 63.5 26%

Enhanced resolution for the atmosphere and land

Enhanced resolution for the ocean

Product Research: Seamless Products

Artists Impression: Tailored seamless products with user specific thresholds and designs

July August September

Frost Line

Climatology

Minimum Temperature6543210

Product Research: Seamless Products

Artists Impression: Tailored seamless products with user specific thresholds and designs

July August September

Soil Moisture

Plant stress

Real Working Example: Ingham

• Tailored seamless products with user specific thresholds and designs• Hope to have some experimental designs live in late 2016 for selected

stations/regions

OCT Nov