Capabilities Expert Assessment

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NATO CAPSTONE CONCEPT: MILITARY CONTRIBUTION TO COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS













1. SURVEILLANCE, DETECTION, RECOGNITION, IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF CHALLENGES, RISKS AND THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

1.1. EXISTENCE OF INSTITUTIONAL BODIES FOR RECOGNITION AND MONITORING NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES, RISKS AND THREATS



№ NATIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM’S BASIC FUNCTIONS INSTITUTIONAL ROLE

1.

1. SURVEILLANCE, DETECTION, RECOGNITION, IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF CHALLENGES, RISKS AND THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

PRIMARY SECONDARY INSIGNIFICANTI DON’T KNOW

COMPLETELY BUILT CAPABILITIES:

FULL

CAPABILITIES BUILT TO A LARGE EXTENT:

RATHER FULL

CAPABILITIES BUILT TO A MIDDLE STAGE:

MIDDLE

MARGINALLY BUILT CAPABILITIES:

INSIGNIFICANT

LACK OF CAPABILITIES:

MISSING

I CAN’T DECIDE

5 4 3 2 1 0

ASSESSMENT OF THE AVAILABLE CAPABILITIES TO EXECUTE THIS FUNCTION

FULLRATHER

FULLMIDDLE

INSIGNIFICANT

MISSINGI DON’T KNOW

1.1

AVAILABILITY OF INSTITUTIONAL BODIES FOR MONITORING AND DISCLOSURE NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGES, RISKS

AND THREATS5 4 3 2 1 0

1

2

3



EXTREMELY HIGH INFLUENCE OR NEED

HIGH INFLUENCE OR NEED

MIDDLE INFLUENCE OR NEED

INSUFFICIENT INFLUENCE OR NEED

LACK OF INFLUENCE OR NEED

I DON’T KNOW

5 4 3 2 1 0

ASSESSMENT OF THE CAPABILITIES AVAILABILITY FOR THE FUNCTION EXECUTION

EXTREMELY HIGH

HIGH MIDDLE INSUFFICIENT MISSINGI DON’T KNOW

1.4ANALYSES AND ASSESSMENTS INFLUENCE ON THE

DECISION MAKING5 4 3 2 1 0

ASSESSMENT OF THE CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT NEEDEXTREMELY

HIGHHIGH MIDDLE INSUFFICIENT MISSING

I DON’T KNOW

1.6NEED FOR INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITIES

DEVELOPMENT AND MODERNIZATION5 4 3 2 1 0

4

5

6



1 LAWS, REGULATIONS, STRATEGIES, DOCTRINES, CONCEPTS, PROGRAMS AND PLANS 5 4 3 2 1 07

STATISTICALANALYSIS

METHODS:

1. ANALYSIS OF AVERAGES - TO PRESENT THE VALUE ESTIMATE OF THE AVERAGE LEVEL OF RESEARCH FUNCTION2. ANALYSIS OF THE STANDARD DEVIATION - TO ACCOMMODATE THE CONVERGENCE OR DIVERSITY OF THE RESULTS 3. NONPARAMETRIC METHODS MANN-WHITNEY AND KRUSKAL-WALLIS - TO PROVE OR DISPROVE THE STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE

8

2 STRUCTURES, ORGANIZATIONS, SYSTEMS 5 4 3 2 1 0

3 EDUCATION, TRAINING, EXERCISES 5 4 3 2 1 0

4 EQUIPMENT AND MATERIALS 5 4 3 2 1 0

5 MANAGEMENT, COMMAND AND CONTROL 5 4 3 2 1 0

6 PERSONNEL 5 4 3 2 1 0

7 INFRASTRUCTURE, CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE 5 4 3 2 1 0

8 COOPERATION AND INTEROPERABILITY 5 4 3 2 1 0



DISCUSSION AREAS MAIN TOPICS1

1DEFINING POTENTIAL HYBRID THREATS WHOSE OCCURRENCE COULD THREATEN THE NATIONAL INTERESTS OF THE REPUBLIC OF BULGARIA

ENERGY SECURITY, TERRORISM, DEMOGRAPHY, MIGRATION, INFORMATION SECURITY, CORRUPTION, STATE INSTITUTIONS FUNCTIONING, ETHNIC MARGINALIZATION AND ALIENATION ……

2DEFINING INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITIES TO COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS

CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROTECTION, INSTITUTIONS RESILIENCE, EDUCATION & TRAINING, STRATEGIC ENERGY BALANCE, BORDER PROTECTION, SOCIAL SECURITY MEASURES…….

3DEFINING AND ANALYSIS OF AVAILABLE INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITIES TO COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS

CYBER SECURITY/DEFENSE, SURVEILLANCE SYSTEMS, BORDER SECURITY, MIGRATION POLICY AND MEASURES, FINANCIAL SECURITY, INTERNAL SECURITY AND CRIME, LAW ENFORCEMENT....

4DEFICIT OF INSTITUTIONAL/NATIONAL CAPABILITIES TO COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS

NATIONAL LEGAL BASE, PREVENTION CAPABILITIES, CYBER SECURITY, CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE AND BORDER PROTECTION, INFORMATION SECURITY, ENERGY SECURITY, INTEROPERABILITY…..

5FORMS AND METHODS FOR INTERINSTITUTIONAL COOPERATION IN CAPABILITIES DEVELOPMENT AND USE

SECURITY STANDING OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES, EDUCATION, TRAINING AND EXERCISING, SURVEILLANCE AND SITUATIONCENTERS, INFORMATION DISTRIBUTION AND SHARING…………….

FINDINGS1. NEED OF DEVELOPMENT MODERNIZATION OF NATIONAL LEGAL BASE AND INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS2. ENLARGING INSTITUTIONAL AWARENESS AND INTEROPERABILITY IN CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT AND USE AREAS3. INGROWING INTERINSTITUTIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION TO COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS

2



1. MONITORING, DETECTION, IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF CHALLENGES, RISKS AND THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

MOD&AF (60)SECONDARY

55%

LEAD INST (7) PRIMARY

67%

CIVILIAN INST(11)

SECONDARY73%

11.1Availability of institutional capabilities for detecting and monitoring

national security challenges, risks and threats3,30 ,96 3,43 ,79 2,60 1,43

11.2Availability of institutional capabilities for analysis and assessment

national security challenges, risks and threats development3,37 ,90 3,29 ,76 2,50 1,08

11.3Availability of institutional capabilities for receiving/sharing information of

national security challenges, risks and threats development3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82

11.4Influence of analysis and assessment of the development challenges, risks

and threats on the decision making processes3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10

11.5Influence of analysis and assessment of the development challenges, risks

and threats on the development of institutional/national legal base3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34

11.6Need of development and modernization of institutional capabilities for

detecting and monitoring national security challenges, risks and threats3,78 ,89 3,71 ,49 3,40 ,97



55%


67%

CIVILIAN INST(11)

SECONDARY73%





11.3Availability of institutional capabilities for receiving/sharing information

of national security challenges, risks and threats development3,39 ,95 3,57 ,98 3,00 ,82

11.4Influence of analysis and assessment of the development challenges,

risks and threats on the decision making processes3,43 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,90 1,10


risks and threats on the development of institutional/national legal base3,27 ,95 3,57 1,13 2,70 1,34





55%


67%

CIVILIAN INST(11)

SECONDARY73%















55%


67%

CIVILIAN INST(11)

SECONDARY73%















55%


67%

CIVILIAN INST(11)

SECONDARY73%















55%


67%

CIVILIAN INST(11)

SECONDARY73%















55%


67%

CIVILIAN INST(11)

SECONDARY73%















55%


67%

CIVILIAN INST(11)

SECONDARY73%















55%


67%

CIVILIAN INST(11)

SECONDARY73%















55%


67%

CIVILIAN INST(11)

SECONDARY73%















55%


67%

CIVILIAN INST(11)

SECONDARY73%













1. MONITORING, DETECTION, IDENTIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF CHALLENGES, RISKS AND THREATS TO THE NATIONAL SECURITY


55%


67%

CIVILIAN INST(11)

SECONDARY73%





















THE NEED IS LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE AVAILABLE CAPABILITIES, BUT AS A WHOLE AVAILABLE INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITIES ALLOW TO EXECUTE THEIR CURRENT ROLE



NATIONAL SECURITY SYSTEM LEGAL FRAMEWORK – LAW ON NSS, DEFENCE LAW, LAW ON INTERNAL MINISTRY, CRISIS MANAGEMENT LAW, DISASTER MANAGEMENT LAW

INSTITUTIONAL AND NATIONAL CONCEPTUAL AND STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS RELATED TO THE AREAS OF COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS

NATIONAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT RELATED STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS AND PLANS VS ALLIED (NATO AND EU) CAPSTONE AND STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS

NSS MANAGEMENT: POLICY AND SYSTEM RESILIENCE, DECISION MAKING AND OPERATIONAL PROCEDURES, FOREIGN FACTORS OF INSTABILITY, POOR OR INEFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT PRACTICES AND VIOLATED PUBLIC TRUST

CRITICAL ECONOMY SECTORS - ENERGETICS, DIVERSIFICATION OF RESOURCE MANAGEMENT, TRANSPORTATION, BANKING AND FINANCE, CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES

INFORMATION POLICY, INFORMATION SECURITY AND PROTECTION, MEDIA, NETWORKS AND INFORMATION INFLUENCE, DISRUPTED STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION

POSSIBLE AREAS OF ARISING OF HYBRID THREATS:



THE MOST SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL MIGHT HAVE A MANIFESTATION OF COMPLEMENTARITY, OVERLAY OR COMBINED AND HIGH NEGATIVE IMPACTS ON SECURITY WITH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL NATURE, HARD TO PREDICT WITH LONG-

TERM EFFECTS AND CONSEQUENCES. THEIR IDENTIFICATION AND MANAGEMENT REQUIRE SPECIALIZED INSTITUTIONAL BODIES FOR RECOGNITION, TRACKING, ANALYSIS AND COUNTERMEASURES

THE ESTIMATION OF THE ARISING POSSIBILITY OF SUCH THREATS RANGE FROM MODERATELY HIGH UP TO HIGH, AND CALL FOR IMMEDIATE INSTITUTIONAL MEASURES TO ENHANCE THE PRELIMINARY INSTITUTIONAL READINESS AND STANDING PLANS, PROCEDURES AND MEASURES TO REACT ON THEIR UNEXPECTED DEVELOPMENT AND INFLUENCE

A STRONG EMPHASIS ON THE NEED OF INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS TO ABSORB INSTITUTIONAL AND NATIONAL POTENTIAL WITH INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL POLITICAL DIALOGUE, OUTREACH, PUBLIC DIPLOMACY, COMBINATION OF ECONOMIC,

INFORMATION AND SOCIAL MEASURES FOR ENHANCING PUBLIC TRUST AND SOCIETY RESILIENCE

THE DISCUSSION IDENTIFIED THE NEED OF A PROACTIVE STRATEGY TO EXPAND INTERINSTITUTIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND COLLABORATION FOR A SHARED DEVELOPMENT AND USAGE OF NEW AND

MODERNIZED INSTITUTIONAL/NATIONAL CAPABILITIES TO COUNTERING THREATS HYBRID

IT WAS ACKNOWLEDGED THE INCREASING ROLE OF MODERN EDUCATION, TRAINING AND EXERCISING, AS WELL AS THE NEED OF MORE INSTITUTIONAL AND NATIONAL SCIENTIFIC RESEARCHES IN THIS AREA IN ORDER TO CONTINUOUSLY

DEVELOP AND UPDATE SPECIALIZED SUBJECT MATTER EXPERTISE FOR NATIONAL SECURITY AND DEFENSE



DELIBERATELY USE OF WEAKNESSES AND VULNERABILITIES:

WEAKNESSES IN NATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND GOVERNMENT FUNCTIONING, CORRUPTION

LACK OF PUBLIC TRUST AND SUPPORT FOR INTERNAL SECURITY AND DEFENCE INSTITUTIONS’ EFFORT

ETHNIC SEPARATION AND NEGLECTED THE INTERESTS OF LARGE ETHNIC GROUPS – POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL MARGINALIZATION

CRITICAL DEPENDENCE ON RESOURCES IMPORTS, ECONOMIC AND ENERGY DEPENDENCE, LACK OF DIVERSITY AND VULNERABILITY OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE - FINANCE, ENERGY, COMMUNICATIONS AND TRANSPORTATION AND CYBER





THE REALIZATION OF A SMALL PART OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY FUNCTIONS (20% OR FOUR OF TWENTY) IS PERFORMED WITH AVAILABLE INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITIES AT ABOVE THE MIDDLE TO HIGH LEVEL OF MEASUREMENT SCALE

THE MAIN PART OF THE NSS FUNCTIONS IS PERFORMED UPON AVAILABLE CAPABILITIES AT ABOUT MIDDLE LEVEL, AND A SIGNIFICANT PART OF THESE ARE RATED EVEN LOWER THAN MIDDLE ON THE MEASUREMENT SCALE

THE COMPARATIVE ASSESSMENT BETWEEN THE MOD NEEDS AND AVAILABLE CAPABILITIES REVEALED MULTIPLE GROUPS OF CAPABILITIES THAT NEED DEVELOPMENT, AS THE NEEDS ARE CONSIDERABLY HIGHER THAN ACTUAL AVAILABILITY

THE INSUFFICIENT EXPERT INSTITUTIONAL REPRESENTATION (EXCEPT MOD), AND THEREFORE A BROADER EXPERT-PROFILE GROUPING, THE RESULTS OF ASSESSMENT THE INSTITUTIONAL ROLE OF MINISTRIES AND STATE AGENCIES

COULD NOT BE CONSTRUED SUITABLE FOR EACH GROUP OF INSTITUTIONS

THE RESULTS REVEAL A RELATIVELY NARROW INSTITUTIONAL AND SECTORAL SPECIALIZATION OF PARTICIPATING EXPERTS, AND IT COULD BE ASSUMED THAT INSTITUTIONAL ROLE IN SOME BASIC FUNCTIONS HAS NOT BEEN EVALUATED

IN FULL COMPLIANCE WITH PRESCRIBED IN THE ENTIRE NSS LEGAL BASE INSTITUTIONAL RESPONSIBILITIES AND TASKS



THE RESULTS REVEAL A CLEAR TREND OF AN EXPERT FOLLOWING THE ACTUAL POLITICAL TRENDS AND A PRIORITY EMPHASIS ON THE TOPICAL POLITICAL DECISIONS ON CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT TO BOOST THE NSS FUNCTIONALITY

A GOOD EXPERT SPECIALIZATION ALLOWS A SUFFICIENTLY FULL COMPLIANCE OF THE ASSESSMENT’S HIGHLIGHTS WITH REQUIREMENTS OF DEFENSE LEGISLATION, OFFICIAL POLICY AND INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGIC DOCUMENTS, AIMED TO

INCREASE THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MOD CONTRIBUTION TO THE ALLIED CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT AND USE

DUE TO THE RESPONSE TO THE INSTITUTIONAL PRIORITIZATION AND COMMITMENT TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SPECIFIC GROUPS OF CAPABILITIES, IT SEEMS UNDERESTIMATED THE NEED OF UPDATING CAPABILITIES TO DEFENSE THE

TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY, STATE INDEPENDENCE AND TO COMBAT TERRORISM

DESPITE INSTITUTIONAL EFFORT, THE UNDERESTIMATION OF THE NEED OF COMMAND AND CONTROL CAPABILITIES (TO IDENTIFY AND ANALYZE ARISING SECURITY CHALLENGES AND THREATS), IT STILL EXIST A PROBABILITY OF HYBRID

THREATS DEVELOPMENT IN THE EXECUTION OF INTER-INSTITUTIONAL AND MULTI-INSTITUTIONAL NSS FUNCTIONS

THE ANALYSIS OF THE RESEARCH’S RESULTS AND FINDINGS REVEALS - IN ORDER TO OVERCOME THE CAPABILITY SHORTAGE AND TO ENHANCE NSS READINESS IT IS NEEDED:



COMPREHENSIVE REVIEW AND UPDATE NSS LEGAL AND REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, DEVELOPMENT A DETAILED CLASSIFICATION OF INSTITUTIONAL ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES FOR IMPLEMENTATION OF ITS

BASIC FUNCTIONS

PRIORITIZATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT AND ACTUALIZATION THE INSTITUTIONAL CAPABILITIES, NECESSARY FOR THE EXECUTION THE LEADING INSTITUTIONAL ROLES IN MAIN NATIONAL SECURITY AND DEFENSE

FUNCTIONS

INTER-INSTITUTIONAL PRIORITIZATION OF CAPABILITY COMMITMENT FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF LEGALLY PRESCRIBED INSTITUTIONAL ROLES, ENLARGING THE INSTITUTIONAL CONTRIBUTION TO THE

SHARED NATIONAL AND ALLIANCE CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT

DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVE MECHANISMS TO IMPROVE THE QUALITY OF INSTITUTIONAL EXPERTISE WITH EDUCATION, TRAINING AND EXERCISING, IN ORDER TO ENHANCE INTER-INSTITUTIONAL AND

INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AND COLLABORATION IN COUNTERING HYBRID THREATS





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Capabilities Expert Assessment