Energy & Resilience for Remote Islands: Vanuatu

(Pacific) Case Study Thursday 9 March 2017 12:30

Peter Johnston

Environmental & Energy Consultants, Ltd; Suva, Fiji

Smart Villages Initiative South/Southeast Asia Wrap-Up Workshop Mandarin Hotel, Bangkok, 7-9 March 2017

This Presentation:

1) Context: 35+ years of Pacific off-grid RE experience (Many failures and some successes)

2) Case study: development of national off-grid remote island RE programme & masterplan (with limited time and information)

3) Some Lessons from Pacific Islands Experiences & Wider Relevance (P Johnston & H Wade)

Pacific Failures (some continue today):

• Mini-hydro (Vanuatu, 2014). Still no transmission or house connections

• Micro-hydro (Sol Isl, 1983). Wooden dam; Penstock support by trees/bamboo; Justified by income generation but …

• Hybrid proposal (Fiji, 2005). Uncommercialised technology No visit to the island (!)

• Hybrid PV/wind/diesel (Fiji, 1980s). Uncommercialised technology Bespoke control system

Pacific Failures (page 2): • Copra-based biofuel (Fiji, 2010-2016).

9 islands; sites chosen by politicians

• Upscaling PV system (Kiribati, 2011 ?) Donor overwhelmed local capacity

• SHS/hybrid mini-grids (Fiji, 2016-now) Free to communities; Community O&M

• PV (Micronesia, 2015 ?). Panel installation not cyclone resilient.

• Biofuel (Vanuatu, 2008). Technology driven. Demand << estimates. High Costs. Poor copra supply.

Pacific Failures (page 3):

• Wind (Vanuatu, 2012). Destroyed by winds before completion No management or O&M mechanism

• PV (Micronesia, 2000s). Panel installation not cyclone resilient.

• Woodstove designs (PNG, Fiji, etc.). Inadequate initial consultation with women

• Biogas, piggery-based (Fiji, 1980s-now). Continues despite 1-5% planned output

Vanuatu Case Study: Developing a Renewable Energy-based Off-Grid Electrification Master Plan for Remote Islands

• Considered several decades of PIC experiences & lessons

• Two-plus field visits to four islands, brief visit to fifth

• Assessed community priorities, Willingness to Pay, Ability to Pay

• Standard, modular PV systems (higher initial cost, lower lifetime cost)

• Preliminary conceptual design

• Emphasis: sustainable financial and management mechanism

VANUATU: small, remote, limited rural electrification

86 islands; 65 inhabited; 286,000 people. Remote provincial electrification: 3 - 15%

Source: http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps

Emae Makira

Mataso

Tanna (briefly) Aneityum

Islands visited:

Two tasks: 1) Preliminary technical design for 4 islands 2) Masterplan for remote off-grid electrification

Outputs: 1) Inception report (April) 2) Site visits & household surveys

(15 communities; 1 tourism site) 3) RE resources & suitable technologies 4) Preliminary technical design 5) Institutional arrangements & financing 6) ‘Master Plan’ and Final Report (July)

Currently: Concept Proposal: Green Climate Fund (2017)

capital

2 km

Emae Island 1: 32 km2; ~1,000 people in 200 households

• School (with PV system)

• Unpaved roads

• Airstrip

• Some compact villages

Emae Island 2 • very rugged, “roads” are poor, very few vehicles • Most villages WTP & ATP low

Mataso Island

• 1.6 km2

• One village 111 people; 12 households

• Resources = coconuts (cyclone damaged) and fish

Aneityum (Anatom) Island 1:

160 km2; 1300 people; 292 households

Aneityum (Anatom) Island 2: • No grid; limited PV; many solar lanterns

• Isolated & rugged; no roads or vehicles

• South: cash economy (tourism)

• North: food production for south

• 8+ hour walk N-S or very costly boat trip

• Well-developed cruise ship tourism in SW; long string of homes, govt & commercial facilities

Airstrip and cruise ship tourism

Criteria Selected for Preliminary Technical Designs

1) Climate Change and Natural Disaster Resilience ( hurricanes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, floods )

2) Consistency with Utilities Regulatory Authority Decisions ( AC service, house wiring; user fees )

3) Consistency with Government of Vanuatu Regulations ( e.g. battery disposal )

4) Component Reliability, Availability, Standardization & Capacity for Local O&M

5) Consistency with National Energy Roadmap ( NERM: 2016-2030 )

6) PV Guidelines: Sustainable Energy Industry Association of the Pacific Islands

7) Consistency with Expected Electricity Demand Patterns (initial kWh/hh/m; likely growth )

8) Lifetime Cost ( e.g. higher initial cost → lower long-term costs & improved sustainability )

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Suitable energy technology depends on UNKNOWN energy demand: New OFF-GRID electrified houses highly unlikely to consume more than rural HHs now ON-GRID: • Tanna average: 0.6 kWh/hh/day (2002) and 1.1 kWh (2013) • Malekula average: 0.6 kWh/hh/day (2002) and 0.7 kWh (2013) • Port Olry biofuel: < 0.5 kWh/hh/day (2010) for mini-grid (relatively wealthy community) • Santo newly grid connected late 2015-early 2016): 4 communities average about 1.2 kWh

More remote communities: Likely to be < 1 kWh / household / day with slow growth

and the pattern of energy demand:

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0-0.5 >0,5-1 >1-1.5 >1.5-2.0 >2.0-2.5 >2.5-3.0 >3.0-3.5 >3.5-4.0 >4.0-4.5 >4.5

Santo On-Grid Community 3 (2016)

68 households 1.1 kWh/day average

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 0-0.1 0.1-0.2 0.2-0.4 0.4-0.7 0.7-0.9 0.9-1.1 1.1-1.3 1.3-1.6 1.6-1.8

Nu

mb

er o

f H

ou

seh

old

s

kWh per household per day

Port Olry Mini-Grid Biofuel (2010) 260 households < 0.5 kWh/day ave

0 – 1 kWh/hh/day

15 0 – 1 kWh/hh/day

on customer’s Willingness and Ability to Pay: • Varies widely; often too low for mini-grid & even individual home system • for some HHs, electricity is low priority; pico-solar PV suffices

Suitable energy technology also depends on who pays:

Based on implicit & explicit government policies in 2016, assumed that • Initial investment costs mostly from GoV or donor

(* new policy: user pays 1/3 of capital costs ?)

• Customer pays some of installation costs • Customer pays O&M costs (including component replacement)

and on community size, density, geography: • Small or sparsely populated → individual home system • Larger, compact community → mini-grid (maybe)

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Recommended Renewable Energy Technology • Reviewed previous & ongoing Pacific island and Vanuatu experience

(Biofuel, PV, Wind, Small Hydro, Solar-Diesel Hybrid)

• Reviewed data on renewable energy resources in Vanuatu

• Considered local expertise and training capacity

• Recommended an approach based on solar PV (pico-solar; Stand-alone SHS, PV mini-grids)

Figure 3.4: Example of VREP Pico-Solar-System Source: VREP brochure; Dept of Energy

5-30 w pico-solar; about US$200 with no subsidy (2016) Vanuatu solar home system

Some General Issues Faced (page 1)

• History of failed remote off-grid RE (almost none by Govt 2002-2016)

• Ambitious national goal (100% HH electrification by 2030)

• What is RE ? (pico-solar, SHS, micro- mini-grids?)

• Inconsistent poorly-coordinated recent NGO / donor approaches

• No coordination among ministries

• No formal responsibility for RE-based remote island electrification

• Legislation and policies inadequate & unenforced

• Technical standards (regulation; enforcement)

Some General Issues Faced (page 2)

• Non enforcement of disconnections for non-payment (key issue)

• RE training (local language; village level; national level)

• Certification of installers

• No standard policy / charges for initial cost For mgt & O&M

• No mechanisms for O&M and payment of village technicians

• Designs may be cyclone resilient; installations may not be (next page)

Survival of PV Array after Category 5+ Cyclone (Fiji, 2016)

Some Issues Specific to the Study

• Do islands and villages chosen accurately represent diversity of remote Vanuatu ? (village size, resources, leadership, physical layout, skills, opportunities, transport, isolation)

• No information on village or island incomes, expenditures, existing energy facilities (HIES but aggregated)

• Survey leads to unrealistic expectations ?

• Limited time for site visits (WTP & ATP indicative) & dialogue (women?)

• Solar lanterns ubiquitous (cannot justify SHS by battery & fuel savings)

• Govt preference for coconut-based biofuel

• Govt (and some donor) strong preference for village mini-grids

• Govt preference for management by the main-grid power utilities (two)

• Mobile phone coverage is reasonable nationwide (large recent investment)

Solar lantern charging

Sample of Village Survey Results (page 1 of 2)

Summary. Some potential for diving tourism with WWII warship wreck at nearby reef. A small facility with three bungalows, dining room & shower / toilet has been constructed but no electricity except small solar lights connected to a solar charged vehicle battery used to light path from bungalows to cooking room & toilet/showers. Village is reasonably compact & should be considered for mini-grid. Some outliers may be better served with SHS.

HH Surveyed Population

Surveyed

Median Acceptable

Payment

(Basic Lighting Services)

Median Acceptable Payment

(Lighting + Additional

Services)

22 121 1000 Vt/month

(US$10) 1250 Vt/month

(US$12.50)

High Priority

Services * Lights Radio Phone Charger

Priority 1.05 1.27 1.50

Percentage of HH

with mobile

phone coverage

% of HH with some

type of solar

lighting

% with portable

solar lights

Ave hours of solar

lighting per night.

Acceptable Payment Approaches

95% 95% 32% 7 Monthly 73%

Prepayment 32%

* With median priority of 2.0 or higher on a scale of 1 (highest priority) to 5

Sample of Village Survey Results (page 2 of 2)

SOURCES OF CASH INCOME Relative ave for

one year (Entire village)

Median 3692 Vt/m/HH Average 5175 Vt/m/HH

CASH EXPENDITURES BY CATEGORY Relative ave for one year

(Entire village)

Median 3942 Vt/m/HH Average 4826 Vt/m/HH

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Distribution of Disposable Income by Household

(Relative averages per household per month)

Total

Village

- 20,163

Vt/m Median

-504

Vt/m/HH Ave

-1,120

Vt/m/HH

Criteria Selected for Recommending Management Mechanism

1) Reasonable long-term success (sustainability) in similar Pacific environments

2) Remove payment and enforcement from government and village hierarchy

3) External institutional mechanism for maintenance using local representatives

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Recommended Renewable Energy Utility Approach (based on Ha’apai, Tonga regional utility model):

• Rural Electrification Agency (REA). Within Government. Administrative / operational costs paid from annual government budget allocation to Department of Energy. Responsible for technical design, finance, procurement, installations and O&M of existing generation units and grids.

• REA Provincial Offices. Eventually six geographic divisions consistent with Vanuatu’s six provinces.

• Provincial Oversight Committees. For each provincial REA office, headed by a multilevel oversight and management guidance committee. DoE as secretary, provincial govt member, island council member, village leadership members. Heart of the institutional structure: arbitrate disputes, establish fee structure & collection.

• Area Operations Manager. AOM for each island. Allocate technical resources and spare parts for O&M, oversee selection and training of local technicians (who report to AOM). Maintain and record spare parts & financial transactions.

Summary of Results EMAE ISLAND Mini-Grid SHS Pico-solar Sangava ? Tongamea ? Fineonge Sasake Marae Vaitini Tabakoro Makatea Reisu Siwo MATASO ISLAND Na’asang MAKIRA ISLAND Makatoto ANEITYUM ISLAND Anelcauhat Umetch ? Port Patrick ? Mystery Isl *

• 4 of 16 sites suitable for mini-grids

• 4 questionable; technically OK for mini-grids

• Pico-solar meets modest demands of many HH in all villages (considering ATP, WTP)

• All 16 suitable for Solar Home Systems

Observations:

• Ability To Pay & Willingness To Pay approximate

• Electricity demand & ATP/WTP highly variable

• Preliminary basis for detailed assessment

• Govt (& others) surprised at low % of mini-grids and absence of biofuel

• Pico-solar not considered RE but high potential demand

* Community-owned tourism site

Lessons from Pacific Off-grid Remote Renewable Energy Experience ?

Relevance to Smart Village Initiative ?

Technical (page 1)

Harsh environment. Design and install to withstand the harsh, often

corrosive environment & violent storms.

Modular systems. SHS & mini/micro grids should be modular in design, use standard, well proven components with strict standards for their design, installation, operation and maintenance.

Inventories. Maintain inventory of spare parts in locations easily accessible by technicians from those islands.

Energy efficiency. Allow only approved energy efficient appliances and lights

Oversizing. Oversizing panels in SHS by 30% above kW needed for expected load is cost effective. (Better service and system reliability)

Technical (page 2)

High quality components. For remote sites, cost of replacing components is very high: only high quality, well proven and reliable components should be used. For SHS & micro/mini-grid systems battery sizing should provide at least 5 days of autonomy

Battery quality. Cost of replacing batteries in remote sites can be >2x cost of the battery (high import duties; transport; recycling cost). Usually cost effective to specify very high quality, industrial grade deep discharge batteries

Open-cell batteries preferred (but technology & costs changing). Open cell lead-acid batteries have a longer life and lower cost than comparable-quality sealed batteries if properly maintained & use rain / distilled water. Design for replacement by lithium-ion.

O&M and Sustainability (page 1)

Maintenance. Avoid individual & community maintenance, which has not worked.

Upfront capital investment. PIC experience suggests upfront user financial investment not required for taking care of system, if equipment is owned by govt or ‘solar utility’ with fee for service (covering O&M) and perhaps amortising capital costs not covered by donor or govt.

Disconnections. Cut off power if user fee is not paid within reasonable time (typically 3 months. Otherwise, user payments fall & systems unsustainable. Village-based technicians must be responsible to an external organization, not to village leadership. Almost impossible for a village technician to disconnect customers who fail to pay.

Hybrid mini-grids with 24/7operations need access to trained operator on duty 24/7.

Training. Repetitive training of local technicians, preferably annually, important to get & retain high-quality maintenance staff.

O&M and Sustainability (page 1) Effective maintenance. Cost-effective good-quality maintenance (SHS and/or mini-grid) requires

about 75 customers per (small) island (minimum) to 125 customers (maximum) per well-trained technician.

Keep politicians informed. Newly-elected governments often unaware of ongoing costs of RE systems. Informal discussions (Members of Parliament, ministers and staff of Prime Minister or President’s office) should be held after every change of government. This is to help them understand that RE resources may be free with donors providing equipment, but there is a real and substantial on-going cost for O&M, particularly large periodic cost of battery replacement.

Donors. Govts should work closely with donors to ensure that proposed equipment is appropriate, fits local needs, and can be maintained satisfactorily using local resources. Donors should be required to provide only designs, materials and installation procedures that meet those standards.

Expanding RE. Expanding electrification through new installations should be carefully staged over time so that the national management system can gradually adapt to the increased responsibilities that additional installations and new locations will entail.

Thank You

Peter Johnston Environmental & Energy Consultants, Ltd; Suva, Fiji

johnston@unwired.com.fj

Dr Herb Wade Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency Consultant;

Bangkok herbwade@sprynet.com

Sustainable Energy Industry Association of the Pacific Islands

www.seiapi.com info@seiapi.com

www.ppa.org.fj ppafiji@gmail.com

For information on Pacific Islands off-grid & on-grid RE

guidelines, standards, training, certification, etc. contact SEIAPI and/or PPA