All you ever wanted to know about energy and behaviour change

Subtasks of Task XXIVsocial media and

Task XXIV

Dr Sea Rotmann Operating Agent

NZ stakeholder update, EECA, February 17, 2015

Closing the Loop - Behaviour Change in DSM: From Theory to Practice

IEA DSM TASK 24

Subtasks of Task XXIVsocial media and

Task XXIV• July 2012 - February 2015: Official start and end dates

• 8 participating countries: Netherlands, New Zealand, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland, Belgium, Italy, Austria

• 9 countries gave in-kind (expert) support: the UK, Spain, Portugal, UAE, France, Australia, South Africa, Canada and the US.

• 226 behaviour change and DSM experts from 21 countries participate in Subtask 5, the invite-only Task 24 Expert Platform (www.ieadsmtask24.ning.com), of them are 38 Kiwis (13 from Govt, 11 researchers, 7 industry members, 4 community group representatives, 1 funder and 4 media and web support people)

• 15 successful expert workshops/webinars have been held to date, including 2 in Wellington with attendence of >50 people in each

• 135 videos and presentations of these events on the Expert Platform

• 1000s of experts in 28 conferences/seminars have heard about Task 24

• Over 30 publications have been created and disseminated

• Almost 60 case studies showing the successful (or not so successful) use of diverse models of understanding behaviour in the areas of transport, SMEs, smart meters and building retrofits have been collected to date from 16 countries in a Wiki (www.ieadsmtask24wiki.info)

•

Some numbers of Task 24 - Phase 1

http://www.ieadsmtask24.ning.com

http://www.ieadsmtask24.ning.com

http://ieadsmtask24.ning.com/video/video

http://ieadsmtask24.ning.com/video/video

http://www.ieadsmtask24wiki.info




Subtasks of Task XXIVSubtasks

5- Social Media Expert platform

1- Helicopter view of models,

frameworks, contexts, case

studies and evaluation

metrics

2- In depth

analysis in areas of

greatest need(buildings, transport,

SMEs, smart metering)

3- Evaluation tool

for stakeholders

4- Country-specific

recommen-dations, to do’s and not to do’s





metrics

2- In depth




3- Evaluation tool

for stakeholders

4- Country-specific


Subtasks

1- Helicopter view of models, frameworks, contexts, case studies and evaluation metrics

5

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVsubtask I -

Overview of definitions

http://www.slideshare.net/drsea/definitions-for-task-24



6

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVsubtask I -What is behaviour?

8

Effectiveness refers to the extent in which an intervention reaches the intended goals. Goals to be evaluated usually consist of: a reduction in energy consumption, energy savings, number of homes retrofitted etc., but sometimes benefits are included that fit in a broader energy context, e.g. health im-provements, job creation and safety improvements.

In addition, some (Breukers et al. 2009) emphasise that particularly when it concerns behavioural change, another element that needs to be taken into account when evaluating effectiveness is the lasting effect beyond the duration of an intervention.

This applies to both habitual and one-off or one-shot decisions. See both figures below for an over-view of the types of behaviour interventions can target and the differences between these behaviours5:

Figure 1: Behaviour spectrum, retrieved from Breukers & Mourik 2013

5 Some other possibly useful reference here are frameworks/spectrums/classifications developed by Gary Raw et al. (2010) (in a domestic energy con-text).

Energy behaviour refers to all human actions that affect the way that fuels (electricity, gas, petro- leum, coal, etc) are used to achieve desired services, including the acquisition or disposal of energy- related technologies and materials, the ways in which these are used, and the mental processes that relate to these actions.

Behaviour Change in the context of this Task thus refers to any changes in said human actions which were directly or indirectly influenced by a variety of interventions (e.g. legislation, regulation, incentives, subsidies, information campaigns, peer pressure etc.) aimed at fulfilling specific behaviour change outcomes. These outcomes can include any changes in energy efficiency, total energy consumption, energy technology uptake or demand management but should be identified and specified by the Behaviour Changer designing the intervention for the purpose of outcome evaluation.

7

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIV

subtask I -Overview of models, disciplines and

frameworks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DOTkdA97Woo&feature=c4-overview&list=UU_p3PlWDpLyDBh8TwUBmVHQ



8

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVsome definitions

Models of behaviour help us to understand specific behaviours, by identifying the underlying factors which influence them. There are individualistic models and social models.

By contrast, theories of change show how behaviours change over time, and how they can be changed.

Behavioural theory is diagnostic, and change theory is more pragmatic.

Both are important to understand when designing interventions.

9


Some main differences between disciplines

The programmes based (explicitly and implicitly) on economic theories usually translate into approaches that:- focus mainly or even solely on individuals- are mostly technocratic and this often gets perceived as generating biggest benefits for the supply side, not the end user- regard individuals as instrumentally/economically rational creatures (‘Homo economicus’) that aim at maximising financial benefits and act largely in a self-interested manner- regard information deficits as an important cause of ‘non-rational’ behaviours (and consequently view information provision, along with financial incentives, as imperative to enable economically rational choices by individuals)- focus often on short and one-off financial incentives- focus on extrinsic motivations mainly (ie are dependent on the response they evoke from others, such as social status, praise or reward)- do not tailor their approach to the individual characteristics, except for (sometimes) some financial or technological tailoring- lack flexibility and room for engagement, co-creation and participation- monitor mainly quantitative aspects and work with calculated or modeled savings

Behavioural economics-based approaches also include insights from social psychology, and for instance focus on the power of nudging people into different behaviours through their infrastructural, institutional or design environment.

10



The benefits of economic or behavioural economic approaches are:

- They do well within what they intend to do and fit well within the current economic and political system and way of thinking- The programmes are relatively easy to evaluate in quantitative terms and often show good results - The retrofitting market can grow- Subsidies are often used up to the max- Many homes do get insulated- Behavioural economics does manage to nudge a certain percentage (around 30% in well-designed projects)- Free riders upgrade their plans and retrofit more comprehensively- Sometimes even a new norm seems to be emerging...

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Social marketing, or insights from psychology, sociology and collaborative learning and practice theory approaches are increasingly being used. These programmes are often cross-sectoral and use elements of theories and models in an eclectic manner. Very often, user engagement is central to the design. They do take account of the impact of the wider context and environment and social norms and are thus clearly based on a more systemic perspective/theory or model. They:

- focus on collaboration and institutional capacity building - focus on building trust in market parties and information sources - target end user needs and multiple benefits - use multiple definitions of success - perform pre-scoping - allow for engagement and participation - allow for flexibility and iteration of programmes - focus on institutional change - focus on lifestyles - use the power of social norms

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This systemic approach’ story line sounds more appealing to most and makes inherent sense. Also, the participants of such programmes often report more satisfaction with being engaged in this way.

However, as there is no silver bullet, if we want to tell a learning story:- These types of interventions are very complex with many partners who have different mandates, needs and restrictions- They cannot be driven by policy alone, need all levels collaborating (ie top down and bottom up)- Not everyone wants to change everything or their lifestyle- Not everyone wants to engage and it is important to ensure that the naysayers are not becoming the over-riding voice (though it is important to understand their reasons)- The flexibility of changing goals, aims and interrelatedness of issues etc makes it difficult to evaluate

13

The Monster

14

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVworked examples in Task 24

15

The Monster Wiki

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Subtask I findings•That conventional approaches (providing information and financial incentives) towards energy behavioural change often fail to achieve a strong, lasting impact but are still widely used•That there are some promising experiments with end-user and context-tailored approaches that move beyond changing the individual into more societal, lifestyle and practice changes•That current experiences are very scattered and there is no overarching method to evaluate success (nor are there commonly agreed-upon metrics) and that this makes it difficult to replicate success elsewhere, which is why we need to investigate a more coordinated approach •That we need more empirical and in-depth case studies (including field research) in order to investigate how such a coordinated, whole-system approach could work in practice, in different (national) contexts•That there are still gaps in social science knowledge, for example, the use of narratives is being promoted, especially by marketers, but has not been researched in depth in the energy field •That there is still limited interaction between different relevant stakeholders and disciplinary and sector silos, due to their different mandates and system-imposed restrictions, which keep them from collaborating effectively.

17

Subtask I findingsEach of the domains also had some unique story lines, eg:

•Transport: driving is a very routine behaviour, with built-in capacity for adaptation/adoption to new cars/routes/traffic; •Buildings: retrofitting-related behaviour deals with investment decisions at the planning stage where unappealing new behaviours can be quickly rejected or even result in cancelling a planned action. •Smart metering: many cases demonstrate that this domain deals with an entirely new behaviour, presenting opportunities for impact through training but also almost no existing behavioural context to use as a starting point. •SMEs: many of the behaviours that need to change require a lot of risk taking and senior leadership, with potentially big impacts on staff and productivity.

18

Some highlightsEach of the domains also had some highlights, eg:

•Buildings: Warm Up NZ programme for its use of intermediaries and strong stakeholder engagement, as well as evaluation focus on health improvements as main metric and Swedish Sustainable Järva Project •Transport: NZ Post’s Driver Behaviour Training for its use of trusted trainers and the Dutch Spitsmijden congestion avoidance pilot •Smart metering: NOT working were time of use tariffs (NZ and Italy) and solely economic incentives (though NLs Jouw Energie Moment had a more systemic approach); the Swedish Energy AWARE Clock was a great example of using smart design in providing better feedback •SMEs: EECA’s Crown Loan Subsidy was thought to be great once it learnt to use trusted intermediaries and shared learning. A good example of nudging was shown in the Belgian Build4Change case.

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Sustainable JärvaOnce upon a time.... There were six neighborhoods around the field of Järva that were in urgent need of improvement. The area had been constructed during the 1960s and 70s as part of the one-million-home-programme, initiated by the Swedish government to tackle a growing housing deficit in the country’s urban areas. The neighborhoods contained housing units for more than 60 000 people, but the socio-cultural context had changed and the buildings were turning old and outdated.

Every day.... People in the area were experiencing economic as well as social challenges. Many of the foreign residents were unemployed, had difficulties learning the Swedish language, and the younger generations were lacking good opportunities for education. The houses they lived in were terribly inefficient, and the area in general did not work for the needs of its current residents. Several investments had been undertaken during the years to improve the situation, but nothing helped and the people felt no one was listening to them.

But, one day... The city of Stockholm decided that it would once again invest in the area, and to improve the living conditions for the people living there. But this time it would be different, this time they had realised that the circumstances were radically different to the 1960s and 70s. They realised that in order for the ”upgrading” to be successful they needed to include the residents in the process - from the beginning.

Because of that... The Järva dialogue was initiated during the fall 2009 and for one week 10 000 residents contributed with more than 30 000 opinions and suggestions about how the area should be developed and improved. Based on these contributions the vision Järva 2030 was formulated and measures were planned to address the four areas of 1) improved housing and urban environment, 2) everyday security, 3) better education and language teaching, as well as 4) more jobs and entrepreneurship.

But then... It was also realised that the area and the buildings had been constructed before the energy crisis without considering the environment, and thus the project Sustainable Järva was introduced to also bring about an environment-, climate- and energy- focus in the development.

Until, finally... The dialogue with the residents continued and together with all stakeholders many great measures were planned to promote sustainable lifestyles, satisfaction and well-being. The ultimate goal with the project is for Järva to serve as model and inspiration for sustainable development of similar areas both nationally and internationally.

And, ever since then... The neighborhoods around the field of Järva have become a place where people want to live! The end.

27

20

Spitsmijden

national Spitsmijden program, which is the construction of a ‘personal avoidance plan’. The purpose of this plan is to determine when and how the rush hour is avoided. The initiators of the pilot gave feedback to the avoidance plans of the participants. After the pilot was finished, the economic incentives were removed and feedback mails were used to continue the behavior. Furthermore, former participants were asked through questionnaires how they experienced the project. Positive reactions were used in publications, on the website and in feedback mails after the pilot. The avoidance plan is based on the principle of commitment and consistency by Cialdini.32

Once upon a time... in a small county with many cars, enthusiastic hardworking Dutch people left every morning around 9 o’clock, five days of the week to go off to work, to be returning just as eagerly around five o’clock in the afternoon.

Every day... they would bore themselves to death driving in rush hour in the morning and the afternoon. Such a waste of time, that could otherwise be spent on making wooden clogs and picking tulips, the favourite activities of every Dutchman.

But, one day... a cooperation between universities, governments and business started a project called Spitsmijden (congestion pricing) to engage people in avoiding congestion. Two types of incentives were used to achieve this change in behaviour: a price incentive for every avoided drive in the city and information supply through a hand computer in the form of navigation and suggestions for other modalities.

Because of that... several pilots in The Netherlands were set up to see if it would help people in avoiding rush hour. And indeed, people were tempted: four months after the pilots, when the financial incentive was gone, 47% of the participants were still avoiding rush hour one way or another!

But then... the initiators came up with an additional incentive: the personal avoidance plan. People were told to plan their congestion avoidance behaviour, using a scheme of when and how the behaviour would be conducted. A theory of Cialdini states that when a person commits itself to something, he or she is inclined to be consistent with that commitment. But if the theory would apply to this specific case was still uncertain.

Until, finally... the results showed that the avoidance plan indeed caused an additional effect on rush hour avoidance behaviour: the percentage of rush hour avoidance was 27% higher than in the cases with absence of the personal avoidance plan.

And, ever since then... former participants are still omitting traffic jam. Although the percentage slightly dropped after the project, an increased (and increasing) number of Dutchmen now have more time to do what they really like: making wooden clogs and picking tulips. The end.

Spitsmijden in a tweet:

6432 Cialdini, Influence; the psychology of persuasion, Collins 1993

21

Energy AWARE Clock

artifact Energy AWARE Clock was developed during an earlier project Aware and is a new kind of energy display that uses a time (i.e. an analogue clock) metaphor to visualise a homes’ electricity consumption. Just as a clock, the EAC may be hung on the wall. Providing the ambient feedback on electricity consumption drew the attention to high-consuming activities and products. Providing electricity consumption feedback in an aesthetically attractive way motivated people to engage in using electricity more efficiently (Emotional Design – e.g. Norman “Emotional Design”, 2004).

Once upon a time... There were nine families living in nine identical houses in Ursvik – a small, small suburb in a very cold and dark country called Sweden.

Every day... The families used their electrically heated bathroom floor, their electrical coffee maker, their dishwasher, their tumble dryer and their spotlights without reflecting about the amount of electricity they used.

But, one day... The families were contacted by the people who had built the houses the families lived in. They were asked if they would like to participate in an experiment organised by a creative research institute. The experiment would place a funny object called The Energy AWARE Clock in each house and after three months researchers from the creative research institute would interview the families about their experience with the clock. The clock was no ordinary clock. In fact, it was connected to the energy meter of the house and measured the household’s electricity use. It displayed this in inspiring circular graphs so that the family could

follow their own behavioural pattern on the level of one minute, one day and one week. Of course, the families said yes, they would love to participate in the experiment.

Because of that... The families learned about how much electricity their individual appliances used and reflected about what a kWh really is and started to discuss energy use with their neighbours. During the first three weeks they really learned a lot about their own household.

But then... They didn’t use the clock for learning anymore. Rather, the clock was domesticised into the households and was subsequently used to check that everything was normal and that no unnecessary electricity use was going on. They clock became like a member of the family.

Because of that... The nine families in Ursvik got interested in energy use, reduced their use of some appliances and increased their use of others.

And, ever since then... The Energy AWARE Clock was developed into a product, which may now be bought off the shelf in the shop. The end.

The Energy AWARE Clock in a tweet:

95

The Energy AWARE Clock

The Dutch project Your Energy Moment43

The Dutch project Your Energy Moment runs in three neighbourhoods in the Netherlands. In Your Energy Moment, participating residents receive a smart meter, an energy computer, solar PV panel and a smart washing machine/dryer/heat pump. Participants can indicate what their preferences are for consuming electricity. These smart machines will turn on automatically when conditions are favourable (e.g. when the sun is shining or when the electricity tariff is low). With feedback and feed forward on the display of the energy computer, participating residents can shift other appliances as well. To stimulate consumers to shift their demand, a variable tariff is used. The project is performed with neighbours collectively to encourage participation. The project is (implicitly) built on the Design with Intent (DwI) Toolkit and explicitly built on insights from a previous pilot called ‘Smart Wash’. These insights are used to develop the smart grid technology of this pilot. A combination of theories and models further implicitly underlie the pilot and the project, most of them derivatives and interpretations of the Expectancy Value Theory (EVT). Expectancy Value Theory (EVT) assumes that the sum of positive and negative beliefs and the strengths of those beliefs about a certain behaviour, determine the attitude towards that behaviour. Attitudes – among others - result in behavioural intention, which leads to actual behaviour. Energy consumption is habitual behaviour and information about it is indirect and obscured. Energy efficient behaviour can be achieved by disturbing the pattern of energy consumption.

9643 www.jouwenergiemoment.nl

22

Build4ChangeOnce upon a time... The real estate management industry in Belgium was only interested in money, spending as little as possible on its buildings and charging as much as possible to its clients.

Every day... Belgian occupants would shiver or sweat, complain to themselves, old boilers would pump heat straight out the chimney, the leaky walls or the open doors, before crawling home in traffic, all together at the same times. Real estate owners would only shrug and say ‘can’t afford to upgrade’ and ‘it’s a prime location’ and ‘the rent’s going up.’

But, one day...EU policy (EPBD) & voluntary eco-labelling (BREEAM) started to push for building quality standards, both for their users and the environment.

Because of that...The new regulatory standards brought about an improvement in building performance, the voluntary labels started, though only slowly in the beginning to create a market differentiation for greener real estate. One consultant decided to promote the highest standards to his clients by setting the norm he wanted them to follow: he moved his company HQ from a car-convenient out-of-town site to an existing inner-city conversion, renovated it to the highest green performance and started attending his meetings by train & bike.

But then...His staff were not all so easily convinced to take up biking to work or to meetings, even though it was a busy drive through the centre every morning and difficult to park. But he needed to convince them because it was necessary for his staff to bike to meetings to demonstrate to his clients that he put his money where his mouth was.

Because of that...He bought them all folding-bikes and used his influence as their boss to suggest they try it, ‘next sunny day’, maybe not all the way from home, but at least from the park & ride, to avoid the city rush hour, get free parking and see how it makes you feel

So, finally...the staff all tried it, they all rather enjoyed the fresh air, riding through the city as it woke and having the time to look around, feeling young again like the students they were sharing the cycle paths with. Soon they felt fitter, started going to meetings by bike and by train and telling their clients about how good it feels. The end.

Build4Change in a tweet:

127

23

The morale of the story

A mix of interventions that are tailored to different (national, local, organisational, domestic) levels; tailored at both the individual and social level; aiming at changing both the investment and habitual behaviour ; target ing multiple motivations (not only economic and informational ones); adding strong quantitative and qualitative evaluation (of actual and perceived/modelled behaviour changes) into project design; and focusing on the lifestyle in which energy is key to performing functions will probably get you long-term success.

24

Some special features of Task XXIV

Text

Premise for Task XXIVSubtask 1 - Main lessons

A helicopter overview of models of understanding behaviour is/not:

A great way to provide a general understanding/overview Good representation of different models/disciplines Collection of international best practice (but snapshot) Good storytelling platform Creating a ‘monster’ that keeps on growing

An in-depth review of all literature on the subject Adhering to a ‘subjective’ disciplinary or sectoral view Easy to read, hence the Wiki and ST8 decision-making tool

==> will continue to grow as a ‘living monster’ on the Wiki throughout the Task 24 extension (and ST8 tool)





metrics

2- In depth




3- Evaluation tool

for stakeholders

4- Country-specific



2- In depth analysis in

areas of greatest need(buildings, transport,


26

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVsubtask II -

case studies

27

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIV Norway - SMEs

Finnfjord

28

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIV Norway - SMEs

Finnfjord

Duration 2007-13

Country Norway (Finnsnes)

Type Project

Cost Initially: NOK850m (€108m), incl ENOVA grant of NOK175m (€22m)

Overrun: NOK100m (€16m)

Specification/Goal Become world’s first carbon neutral smelter by installing innovative heat recovery system and other energy efficiency measures

Behavioural model/s or theories of change

Not individual, but organisational culture

Rogers diffusion of innovation

Context Almost 100% RES, subsidies for intensive industry, national policy on EE including national funding that takes on some risk, small family-owned business

29

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIV Finnfjord learnings

Becoming the world’s first carbon neutral ferro-silicon smelter is/not:

A massive goal that needs buy-in from all levels Proof that company culture is everything That a performative vision is essentialA technologically innovative showcase/best practiceA forerunner that breaks down hurdles for fast

followers (replicable)Possible because of strong CBA (barriers/drivers)

Easy, cheap or straightforward Without a very large level of shared risk Possible without behavioural change in management

30

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSwitzerland - Buildings

2000 Watt Society

31

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSwitzerland - Buildings/Transport

2000 Watt Society

Duration 1998 - 2100

Country Switzerland (several cities and cantons)

Type Policy/Vision/Roadmap

Cost ???

Specification/Goal Efficiency: Less energy used for the same purpose!

Consistency: Renewable energy resources instead of non-renewable resources!

Sufficiency: The right measure for a better quality of life!


Societal habit change via constitutional embedding of the vision/goal

Context Early industrialisation, very rich country, technology leader, citizen-led referenda

32

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSwitzerland - Buildings/Transport

2000 Watt Society

Becoming the world’s first Western 2000 Watt society is/not:

A national, societal vision with a measurable goal Important to: create awareness/lighthouse projects Marry top-down and bottom-up approaches Have active pioneers and forerunners Talk lifestyle change but tackle it with innovation Have strong, ongoing communication with public Address different people in their own language

Easy, cheap or straightforward Possible to benchmark rural vs urban Not possible if using rational neoclassical approach

33


First in-depth analysis

Austria

34

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIV€CO2 Management

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35

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVDie Energiejagd

36

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVAustria learnings -

Die Energiejagd vs €CO2 Management

social approach individualistic approach

social norm (MoU)social learning (ToC)Freezing/unfreezing (ToC)

classical economics (MoU)

Gamification, competition, feedback, tailored advice, champions

Feedback, Advice & Incentive (iPod!)

Goal: CO2 savingsGoal: CO2 savings

Huge success Unexpected failure

37

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSweden - TransportStockholm congestion charges

38

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSweden - TransportStockholm congestion charges

Duration January 3rd and July 31st, 2006

Country Sweden (Stockholm)

Type Pilot then becoming policy

Cost 3.8b SEK

Specification/Goal - reduce the amount of cars

- improve accessibility

- improve environmental aspects


Financial incentive, based on a model called the “Homo economicus”plus facilitating behaviour change by other factors such as providing better PT infrastructure

Context Stockholm has very good conditions for implementing congestion charges: well-structured public transport, a special topology reducing the number of roads leading in and out of the city and therefore also reducing the number of toll stations implemented. Sweden also has a history of making big reforms across the right and the left wing.

39

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSweden - Transport

Stockholm Congestion Pilot

Using congestion charging in Sweden is/not:

A successful tax that aimed at reducing traffic congestion and improve environmental quality

Working because of favourable context such as public transport infrastructure, topology and politics

Easier as people in Stockholm were not habitual commuters via car (large PT use already)

Evaluated quantitatively and qualitatively showing a 20% reduction, improved air quality and a change in perception before/after

A pilot that was then voted in to stay for good by the citizens

Easy to replicate elsewhere with less favourable conditions Working as well for richer people who could afford the tax Something to undertake lightly! (see Milan)

40

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVNZ-Buildings/Smart Grid

PowerCo Smart House Trial

THE POWERCO SMART HOUSE PILOT PROGRAMME

IEA DSM TASK 24 Subtask 2 report - NEW ZEALAND

(Domain: Smart Metering/Feedback and Building Retrofits)

Author: Dr Sea Rotmann Date: July 11, 2014

1

1. We are not there yet but: Can or can’t we make a significant technical shift in peak demand self consumption?

2. Every consumer, every intervention, every household has a different response, it is very complex. It’s about the conversation the consumer wants to have, not what the market or government want to have. It is about finding the best solution for consumer and good compromises. This is a good learning.

3. We need to go beyond classical economics and BAU models, the world and the system is changing.

STRATEGY FOR SMART HOMES: IMPLEMENT AND MEASURE

In order to embark into new territory, we need a methodology that embraces change but re!ects the kind of solid, robust engineering that PowerCo already delivers. One of the clear outcomes of recent “Smart Grid” trials is the need for simplicity. While there may be users that actively enjoy using energy management software and gadgets, the majority of people do not have the time. It is our opinion that the solutions PowerCo provides to customers be “opt-in” in the sense that they will be working for you whether you look at them or not. They do not require the consumer to take an interest, but provide very detailed information for the interested consumer. We do not want this new paradigm to be a burden on users - rather let’s craft technology that serves consumers’ needs rather than the other way around.

!"#$%&'O(!)&*I+O%&*$O,$#"")&-O14

Studies Show...Consumers respond to information - enabled with technology. They respond to price somewhat but respond to price plus technology most of all.

Opportunities for EDBs��Information: pricing and technology services and solutions to lower peaks��Information standards plus demo technology to lower new investments��Enable new consumer choices without surprises / e"ciently using networks��Evolve new services and / or engagement models

EDB Pressures

��Higher Peaks, Lower Load Factors, Lower Economic E"ciency��Threat to Volume��Need for New Investments��Increasing Costs��Uncertain Reserves

EDB Network Strength

��Need not be volume consumed - kWh based��Regulated - right incentive can deliver NZ Inc e"ciency��Across Network View - (can optimise)��Enable infrastructure best shared (storage?)��Long DSM history (hot water)

Evolving Consumer Preferences and Choices

��Value��Social and Environment��Comfort��Resilience��Lifestyle

Enabling Technologies

��Smart Meters��Heat Pumps��E"cient Appliances��Apps and Services��PV��Internet of Things (Smart Appliances)��EVs Storage

Retailers and Aggregators

��TOU Pricing��New Commercial Models

v 2013.09.17a

Figure 4. From the PowerCo Smart House brochure

Methodology

This case study analysis is based on an analysis of project documentation provided by PowerCo and 4 semi-structured interviews (3 with (all of) the householders and one with the project manager). The interviews were adapted from the ‘Beyond kWh’ paper by Karlin and Ford (in prep) and the laddering

14

The 3 houses chosen here fall into 3 of the 4 categories from the Energy Cultures5 research project:

Figure 3. Energy Cultures Clusters

House A in Tauranga belongs to the Energy Cultures’ Energy Efficient cluster and PowerCo’s Value Consumers. A young couple and a baby live in the house, as well as 3 cats. The homeowners are using only a little over 6000kWh pa and operate only 23 appliances. The House was built in 1998, has 100m2 and had good insulation and weather tightness (though no double glazing, which is typical for New Zealand. None of the houses in this trial have double glazing). The house operated on tariff-reduced ripple control for the hot water (from 11pm-7am and 1pm-3pm). There was no heated towel rack or clothes dryer. Heating was originally undertaken via portable heaters and a water radiator with plug-in timers. They also use electric blankets in winter and a HRV heat replacement system which is on 24h a day.

The house received 1kW of Canadian Solar PV installation, and a network-controllable (for occasional critical peaks) heat pump, as well as an energy efficient ceramic topped stove, a smart hot water controller using timers/delay functions and smart plugs and web/phone reporting and control for a number of the home’s appliances. Monitoring is undertaken via room sensors to assess temperature distribution and circulation; water flow meters to measure hot water supply to heating, tank and use; circuit monitors; heat pump setting to measure temperature and use; PV monitoring software to measure generation; as well as via energy diaries (both written and as iPad apps) and interviews to assess attitudes, norms, engagement and behaviour changes.

House A is scheduled to be tested in 5 categories, 3 of which will require householder engagement, one is monitoring and the 5th is not in play until Year 2. The behavioural considerations around home heating

5

5 www.energycultures.org.nz

41







1






!"#$%&'O(!)&*I+O%&*$O,$#"")&-O14



EDB Pressures










v 2013.09.17a


Methodology


14






5


3







1

Duration 2014-2017

Country New Zealand (3 cities)

Type Pilot project

Cost >NZD 500,000

Specification/Goal Better design tomorrows network; determine pricing strategies with customers; guide development of appropriate policy and technical standards, understand DSO’s role in DSM


Neoclassical economics, energy cultures, technological innovation systems, transition theory, moments of change

Context 80% RES, DSM issues, legislation requiring EE from DSOs, smart meter/grid rollout

42







1






!"#$%&'O(!)&*I+O%&*$O,$#"")&-O14



EDB Pressures










v 2013.09.17a


Methodology


14






5


3







1

Duration 2014-2017

Country New Zealand (3 cities)

Type Pilot project

Cost >NZD 500,000

Specification/Goal Better design tomorrows network; determine pricing strategies with customers; guide development of appropriate policy and technical standards, understand DSO’s role in DSM


Neoclassical economics, energy cultures, technological innovation systems, transition theory, moments of change

Context 80% RES, DSM issues, legislation requiring EE from DSOs, smart meter/grid rollout

4







1

Piloting smart home technology is/not:

A good way of establishing technological potential A very good way to engage customers A first step to creating smart prosumers A way to change lifestyles and break (some) habits A good way to showcase best practice before rollout Important lesson on consumer service perspective

Statistically meaningful to quantify impacts Necessarily straightforward DSM tool Technologically fully matured Easily replicable on the national scale

Engaged participants

Ruth Mourik

PowerMatching City


Ruth Mourik

PowerMatching City

6

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVNL-Buildings/Smart Grid

PowerMatching City

Duration 2007-2011 (pilot) 2012-14 (evaluation)

Country the Netherlands (2 cities)

Type Pilot project

Cost several million €€€

Specification/Goal Test integral smart grid with innovative appliances in real life; set up by a consortium of stakeholders (DSO, technology, ICT, research); early movers; variable pricing; co-creation of feedback with end users


Neoclassical economics, gamification, participatory learning, co-creation

Context Technical system not yet mature nor available; energy communities already existed


Ruth Mourik

PowerMatching City

6


PowerMatching City



Type Pilot project






7


PowerMatching City

Piloting smart home technology is/not: A good way of establishing technological potential Important to match technology to consumer needs A 1st step to creating smart prosumers/communities Lesson that communities offer scalability A good way to embed trust and transparency Important lesson on consumer service perspective Especially around importance of co-creation

Easy to make technology match real life needs A way to change individual behaviour Technologically fully matured Easily trusted as commercial interests get in the way A good idea to ignore frustrations


Ruth Mourik

PowerMatching City

6


PowerMatching City



Type Pilot project






7


PowerMatching City

Piloting smart home technology is/not: A good way of establishing technological potential Important to match technology to consumer needs A 1st step to creating smart prosumers/communities Lesson that communities offer scalability A good way to embed trust and transparency Important lesson on consumer service perspective Especially around importance of co-creation

Easy to make technology match real life needs A way to change individual behaviour Technologically fully matured Easily trusted as commercial interests get in the way A good idea to ignore frustrations

8

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVCommon lessons and

learnings

It really is all about the people, but... Not just about the individuals, also wider community Big differences even within households (eg gender) Trust really is everything, hard to gain and easily lost Present a face and keep one human intermediary It’s OK to be technical, but don’t be technocratic Learn how to communicate differently Balance research needs with user needs Make it about lifestyle not technology Listen to the frustrated, don’t shy away from problems Co-create and share learnings

47

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVItaly - Buildings/smart meters

Energy at Home project

48


Text

Premise for Task XXIVSubtask II - Main lessons

An in-depth review of case studies is/not:

A great way to drill deeper into most interesting cases Showing impact of country-specific contexts Providing some comparison between cases and countries A way of standardising the analysis across countries Important to collect different points of view

In-depth as it focuses only on one issue per country Quantitative analysis, as it is empirical research by nature Available to countries that provided in-kind expertise

==> will continue to collect case studies for ST6 of the extension





metrics

2- In depth




3- Evaluation tool

for stakeholders

4- Country-specific



3- Evaluation tool for

stakeholders

50

What is it? • Monitoring: measuring progress and achievements

and production of planned outputs• Evaluation: structured process of assessing success in

meeting goals and reflect on learnings. Explicitly places a value judgement on the data and information gathered in an intervention

Why do it the way we do now? Establish effect of policies Assess need for improvementsAssessing value for moneyContribution to evidence base for effectiveness of behavioral interventions at population level

How to do it…….???

Some definitions

51

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSubtask III: Outputs

- Individual evaluation and monitoring metrics for each domain can be found in the Subtask I Monster/Wiki

- Subtask III Deliverable 3 - Methodological review of the scientific literature (smart meter/feedback and building retrofits only) called ‘What do we know about what we know?’ which will feed into Subtask IX

- An overview of how different disciplines evaluate behaviour, main challenges and recommendations on monitoring and evaluation can be found in Subtask III Deliverable 3A report ‘Did you behave as we designed you to?’

- Specific guidelines and fact sheets for 3 main intervention tools in the building retrofit area (Energy Performance Certificates, Mass Marketing and Subsidies and Loans) can be found in Subtask III Deliverable 3B From “I think I know” to “I understand what you did and why you did it”

52

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSubtask III: Deliverable 3

‘What do we know about what we know?’

- Methodological review of behaviour-based energy intervention studies in the customer feedback and residential building retrofit areas, which were conducted over the past 10 years to determine what data has been collected and how it has been collected (out of 315 papers, 85 were coded in detail for analysis).- No standard way of measuring behaviour change, which means no ability to compare across studies and incorporate questions about context, attitudes, knowledge and user experience.- In future we should make better use of mixed methods for data collection, eg surveys, focus groups, interviews, scales to allow for triangulation.- Also need better transparency into the methods used to evaluate (only 4 out of 85 published their actual evaluation instrument).- Need to create and share validated data collection instruments which facilitate a consistency of measurement ==> This will be done in Subtask IX

53

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSubtask III: Deliverable 3A‘Did you behave as we designed you to?’

Positioning Paper providing an overview of:

- Definitions used in Task 24, particularly around monitoring and evaluation (M&E)- Evaluating efficiency and effectiveness of behaviour interventions- Disciplinary basis for interventions and consequences on M&E- Multiple challenges of M&E (benchmarking, mismatch of needs, M&E team not included in design, no longitudinal M&E, based on proxies and models not actual measures, multiple benefit analyses, how do other stakeholders assess success, monitoring individuals not practices, no feedback loops, no shared learning)- How to open up interventions to include end users- A collective learning process: single vs double-loop learning

54

How do different behavioural models/disciplines evaluate?

Intervention goals and evaluation methodologies commonly used in interventions underpinned by the three disciplines discussed above are shown in the table below (this is not an extensive list, it is aimed at highlighting foci and differences).

Goals 14 Methodologies Remarks (e.g. about causal relationships)

Econ

omic

per

spec

tives

Outputs Cost-efficiency and effectiveness Units, and proxies e.g. number of participants, home insulated, technologies installed, KWh saved etc. Labels

Modelling Surveys Experiments Randomised control trials

Presence of cause � effect relationship. Aim is to meet a priori set goals Monitoring and evaluation often only for duration of implementation, no longer term

Psyc

holo

gica

l per

spec

tives

Outputs Cost-efficiency and effectiveness Behavioural changes

Surveys self-reported behavioural changes structured interviews randomised control trials Surveys to identify behavioural determinants like motivations, attitudes, etc.

Cause-effect relationships: Effect on individuals of a particular incentive, via e.g. awareness, attitude, behaviour. Interfering variables like social context often not taken into account

Soci

olog

ical

per

spec

tives

Outputs and Outcomes Cost-efficiency and effectiveness Learning about what works, when, where, who, how (long) and why Learning about interdependencies Learning about co-shaping and reshaping

User accounts Time diaries Cultural probes In-depth open interviews Analysis of fit of interventions with daily life measuring real, not modelled energy consumption

Context & mechanism/conditions produce an outcome. Direct cause-effect relationships hard to establish because of interdependencies that cannot be analysed separately.

14 We will also insert a column on the underlying processes - how does an intervention work, admittedly typically at the individual level (what changed in people's understanding, motivations, attitudes)!

55

Our recommendation

Single-loop learning is about the effectiveness and/or efficiency of a technology, measure, instrument, arrangement, or intervention to achieve pre-defined goals.Double-loop learning is process-oriented, focused on the how, when, where, how, how long, for whom and is about questioning goals and the prevailing norms and rules underlying these goals. In addition, double-loop learning is focused on interactions, the quality of participation, learning by doing and doing by learning, aligning expectations, in short, double-loop learning is about reflexive governance of interventions.

56


Subtask III: Deliverable 3BFrom “I think I know” to “I understand

what you did and why you did it”Guidelines and Factsheets in Building Retrofits:

- Identification and development of context-sensitive indicators, metrics and ways to monitor and evaluate both short- and long-term, identifiable and/or measurable (one-off investment- and more frequent habitual) behaviour change outcomes of DSM tools (being elements of larger interventions) - Focus on investment vs habitual behaviours- Examining different tools of building retrofit interventions- Detailed factsheets of M&E in single- and double-loop learning processes of three tools (Energy Performance Certificates, Mass Marketing and Subsidies and Loans)

57

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSubtask III: Deliverable 3B

Different elements of behaviours

Element of behaviour Description

Individual behaviour The way in which an intervention aims to change individual behaviour

Social norm The way in which the behavioural change is stimulated by changing existing social norms or by using existing pro-environmental norms

Policy- and institutional context

Policies, partnerships and institutional settings which may hinder, stimulate or may be needed in order to achieve behaviour change

Physical environment Changing or using physical elements (e.g. physical infrastructure, built environment, technology, choice environment) to enable or stimulate more sustainable behaviour

58

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSubtask III: Deliverable 3B

Different tools of behavioural interventions

Focus Tool Aim Behaviour Targeted

System element targeted

Underlying discipline

Information and communication

Energy performance certificate / energy or product labelling

Driving demand for energy efficient products. Creation of a new social norm (implicitly).

Investment behaviour

Individual behaviour, social norms, policy- and institutional context, physical environment

Economics

Tailored advice

Reducing barriers caused by lack of information


Individual behaviour, physical environment

Psychology

Mass media campaign Reducing barriers caused by lack of information

Investment- and/or habitual behaviour

Individual behaviour, social norms

Social marketing

Energy ambassadors Reducing barriers; driving demand for energy efficient products. Creation of a new social norm (implicitly). Providing direct support and empowerment



Social psychology

Financial Subsidies & loans Incentivising (additional) energy saving measures, reducing financial barriers for energy efficient products or measures, and/or stimulating the diffusion of innovative technologies



Economics

Fiscal tools Incentivising energy saving behaviour by ‘the polluter pays principle’.



Economics

Covenants Covenants: Formal voluntary agreement between stakeholders to work together towards achieving common goals

Sharing responsibility among stakeholders for achieving common (policy) goals.


Social norms, policy- and institutional context

Multidisciplinary

Regulation Regulations Making the use of certain tools mandatory, e.g. energy labels when selling a product



Economics

Standards Legal standards for energy performances of products. Non compliance usually results in a penalty (legal action and/or fines)



Economics

Table 1: adapted from Murphy, Meijer & Visscher (2012).

We will start with briefly discussing how both investment- and habitual behaviour are generally being monitored and evaluated in building retrofits4. Then we will present fact sheets that show what M&E should look like for specific tools when attempting both single- and double-loop learning on a systemic level. These fact sheets contain indicators which could be used to allow for both single- and double-loop learning and a broader set of success definitions.

The aim at present is not to give an exhaustive overview of all tools, indicators and evaluation metrics available. It is a first attempt at developing a useful guideline for monitoring and 4 Based on a literature review of evaluations of DSM programmes in the specific themes and Beyond kWh methodological review.

59


Subtask III: Deliverable 3BExample: Energy Performance Certificates

FACTSHEET

Factsheet: Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) Description Communication tools that display information about the energy efficiency and energy

performance of buildings. These labels can be used by consumers to compare and assess energy performance of buildingsa. An energy label is usually part of an EPC; this label shows the energy indicator in a comprehensible (graphic) mannerb.

Aim -To increase market demand for energy-efficient dwellingsc -To increase awareness of the energy performance of a house and therefore increasing house owner motivation to invest in energy improvementsd,e -EPCs implicitly also work towards the creation of a new social norm: a valuable house is an energy efficient housef

Behaviour targeted


Discipline Economics

Possible combination with other tools

In attempts to make this tool more effective in terms of influencing investment behaviour it is often combined with a tailored energy advice reportg. EPCs can also be combined with fiscal tools and regulations (making EPCs mandatory).

Conventional M&E

M&E practices often follow the two underlying economic theories of EPCs: they investigate whether EPCs lead to increased market demand for energy-efficient dwellings and whether it is effective in increasing investment behaviour in energy efficiency improvementsh.

Pitfalls An EPC is an indirect tool that aims to provide information which should lead to increased awareness of energy performances of buildings. Eventually, this should lead to behaviour changes in the form of increased investments in energy performance improvementsi or choices by tenants to prefer to rent homes with higher performance ratings. Thus, this tool only influences the investment behaviour indirectly, therefore it is hard to accurately monitor and evaluate the exact impact of EPCs on investment behaviour. Some evaluations also consider why EPCs are (in)effective in realising behaviour change by investigating why end-users do (not) use EPCs in their decisions. The classical ‘Principal Agent’ issue of landlords not buying into energy efficiency improvements and rating systems, unless they are mandatory, is also a major pitfall.

Role of EPC in systemic interventions

EPCs only indirectly influence investment behaviour and it does not influence habitual behaviour at all. In order to achieve systematic changes in the built environment this tool should be combined with tools that directly influence investment behavior (e.g. subsidies for EPC jump) and tools that aim for influencing habitual behavior (e.g. energy ambassadors, mass media campaigns).

60

Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSubtask III: Deliverable 3BExample: Energy Performance Certificates

System Element targeted: Individual Investment Behaviour

SINGLE-LOOP LEARNING DOUBLE-LOOP LEARNING

Questions What to M&E Relevant to whom and why?

Indicators Timing Methods, tips & tricks

Questions What to M&E Relevant to whom and why?

Indicators Timing Methods, tips & tricks

Have the goals been reached?

To what extent did the EPCs lead to higher awareness about energy efficiency (EE)?

Policymakers: they need to know if the EPC contributed to increased awareness of EE, which should eventually lead to more investments in EE Industry& Intermediaries: they want to know whether adding information about EPC’s in their marketing activities is effective in influencing investment behaviour

Awareness of energy performance of houses, awareness of having an EPC

Before and after

Surveys How did the perspectives, assumptions, norms and beliefs of end users change during the programme?

Which factors influence investment decisions of house owners? j

Policymakers: with this information the EPCs can be better tailored to the needs and preferences of house owners Housing corporations: with this information the EPCs can be better tailored to the needs and preferences of house owners Retailers: they can use this information to improve their energy saving advice

Condition/quality and age of the dwelling The extent to which building owners believe that EPC improvements lead to increased property values

After Surveys and interviews

Are the goals reached?

To what extent are the EPCs effective in influencing investment behaviour? k,l,m

Policymakers: they need to know if the EPC indeed contributed to EE improvements or if it was mainly used to label already EE homes Retailers: they can use information of EPCs to tailor their energy-saving advice to specific houses

Number of people with (and without) an EPC that carried out energy efficiency improvements

After Surveys Which lessons learned during the intervention are translated into (re)designs?

Why are private house owners (not) using EPCs in their decisions? n,o,p

Policymakers: this information can be used to improve the EPC schemes in the future Intermediaries (doing the certificates): any information changing the implementation is of importance to them as they may need to be re-trained

The perceived quality, reliability, availability, complexity, trustworthiness, clarity, meaningfulness, and relevancy of information. Awareness of the certificates The extent to which building owners believe that EPC improvements lead to increased property values

During Surveys, interviews and end-user feedback

61


Text

Premise for Task XXIVSubtask III - Main lessons

A behavioural evaluation ‘tool’ is/not: Something everyone wants, and no one has created yet Hugely important, as it’s the only way to show impact &

compare between studies Usually dependent on models and estimates, not measures Collection of different metrics ‘beyond kWh’ Methodological review of behavioural interventions A positioning paper recommending double-loop learning Guidelines & factsheet examples of building intervention tools

Possible to complete in the scope of Task 24’s Phase 1 Easy, as different stakeholders have different needs/outcomes Finished, but created important building blocks

==> will be developed as ST9 of Task 24 extension and become part of ST8 toolbox & hopefully ST11





metrics

2- In depth




3- Evaluation tool

for stakeholders

4- Country-specific



4- Country-specific

recommendations, to do’s and not to do’s

63


Text

Premise for Task XXIVSubtask IV - Do’s and Don’tsIntervention Phase DO DON'T

DESIGN PHASE − use models of understanding behaviour and theories of change to design interventions

− spend some time pre-intervention researching your audience, its motivations, needs and heterogeneity

− collaborate with other Behaviour Changers, especially researchers and intermediaries to design your interventions

− segment your audience where you can as it will help tailor the intervention

− design evaluation into the intervention up front, including the evaluation team (if different)

− learn from mistakes and (re)iterate your intervention

− put a lot of thought into dissemination and don't be afraid to use unusual means like social media, group learning and storytelling

− believe that there is one silver bullet model for behaviour change

− always use the same model, neoclassical economics is a valid model that fits our socio-economic and political reality but it does not explain peoples' mostly habitual energy-using behaviour well enough

− be afraid to mix models and create a toolbox of interventions

− think you can design, implement, evaluate and disseminate a (national) behaviour change programme all by yourself

− think all people are rational, utility-maximising automatons, even in each household you will find very different attitudes, behaviours and motivations

− think you can leave evaluation til after the programme is finished

− just think in kWh and cost savings, most people don't think of energy in this way but of the services they derive from it

IMPLEMENTATIONPHASE

− collaborate with other behaviour changers in rolling out the intervention

− use trusted intermediaries and messengers

− target your audience with tailored information and feedback that makes sense to them

− keep learning during the implementation by evaluating ex durante

− listen to peoples' stories and especially the nay-sayers and laggards

− not underestimate the power of moments of change, use them wisely

− operate in a silo, you need help− stop looking in unusal places for allies− let your (conflicting) mandates stop you

from working with other Behaviour Changers

− let technology overwhelm the intervention, it is a means to an end

− ever forget that you are dealing with people and their homes are their castles and their cars their steeds

− think you know better than your audience how they should use energy

− keep a successful intervention to yourself, share it widely

EVALUATION PHASE

− evaluate ex ante, ex durante and ex post

− put 10-15% of your resources into evaluation, it's worth it

− benchmark!− think of the most relevant metrics and

indicators, not just for you but for your target audience and the other Behaviour Changers

− use double-loop learning methods− provide strong, ongoing, targeted

feedback to your audience

− think it's just about kWh, evaluate beyond it (eg health, comfort, safety...)

− think you need to do all evaluation yourself, use your collaborators to evaluate the bits they know best

− leave evaluation til the end or ignore its importance in showing that your intervention worked

− just model, measure as well − ignore the pathway of behaviour change

that led to a kWh change – ask people

(RE)-ITERATION PHASE

− (re)iterate your intervention often− learn from your mistakes− listen to your collaborators and end

users

− ignore your evaluation− hide your mistakes and horror storries,

they are often the ones we can learn the most from

DISSEMINATION PHASE

− understand your audience, collaborators and stakeholders, tailor your dissemination accordingly

− tell stories, use social media and word of mouth

− use trusted intermediaries to tell your story

− spend all your money on (social) marketing campaigns

− keep doing the same thing, peoples' willingness or brand awareness doesn't usually translate to behaviour change

− tell a boring story about kWh− think you know better, ever

Subtasks of Task XXIVContext: Country storiesIEA DSM – Task XXIV

Belgian Story

Brussels, September 7, 2012

Swiss Energy Strategy and research projects

concerning behavior change

Dr. Aurelio Fetz, Market Regulation, Swiss Federal Office of Energy

Workshop IEA DSM Task 24, 15.10.2013

The New Zealand energy story

Sea Rotmann and Janet Stephenson

demand-side^

Norwegian Energy Story- a true frontier story of DSM roll-out in South Africa !

BarryBredenkamp , ( SANEDI) and Dr Mathilda du Preez, (University of Pretoria)

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

17 March 2014

65


Text

Premise for Task XXIVSubtask IV - Summary of

recommendations

- Design Phase (Subtask I) Q: What are the best models and theories to underpin intervention design? A: It depends on the intervention, there is no silver bullet.- Intervention Phase (Subtask II) Q: What can we learn from best practice in Task 24 countries? A: Context is everything, but there is opportunity for shared learning.- Evaluation Phase (Subtask III) Q: How shall we monitor and evaluate behaviour change outcomes? A: By using double-loop learning processes and standardised data collection.- (Re)iteration Phase (Subtask IV) Q: What can we do better? A: Some things we do well, others can be improved on a lot.- Dissemination Phase (Subtask V) Q: How can we best share our learnings? A: Close network of experts, building on relationships and storytelling.

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Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVSubtask IV: (Re)iteration of

our NZ case studies

WARM UP NEW ZEALAND: HEAT SMART INSULATION PROGRAMMEDomain: Building Retrofits

Target: Individual Investment Behaviours





Recommendations What the programme did What the programme could do better

1. Focus on the social side

The core model of this programme is still neoclassical economics which focuses on the individual, although in this context it includes the house(hold)

Utilising the wider social context of individuals, including other household members (for example, teaching children in school about the importance of clean, dry housing and how that can be achieved) and the wider peer group. For example, EECA could prompt people who got installations to talk about it to their family and friends, eg create a facebook site where feedback and photos can be shared and liked; create a sticker for each home or letterbox that says something like ‘I am a warm and dry home’; give vouchers for referring a friend; use trusted members of their community, like church leaders or hair dressers to promote the message etc.

2. It’s not just what we buy, it’s what we do

To be truly effective, DSM programmes have to go beyond the (granted, very high potential) one-off investment behaviours like insulation and clean heat and change smaller, frequent purchasing behaviours, use and maintenance of technology and habits and routines as well. WUNZ is largely focused on the one-off investment behaviour but largely misses out on wider conversations around eg the weathertightness of a home, the age of appliances, how they are used or maintained at peak capacity etc

Although energy audits can be useful in addressing some of these issues, as are moments of change (eg when buying or selling a house or when a new baby or elderly family member arrives), the current programme misses out on utilising some very powerful intermediaries right there and then: the insulation installers and public health nurses who provide information on the subsidy scheme to the most needy tenants. Training these trusted intermediaries to be able to inform the householders on wider energy issues aside from insulation and clean heating would be a very important step into further behaviour changes that would help the most vulnerable (by improving their housing and health and reducing their energy (and health) bills).

3. Change lifestyles not light bulbs

This leads into the bigger issue of changing lifestyles, attitudes and values around energy efficiency, not just installing a technology that is largely invisible and needs no further change from the householder. EECA has many other programmes that address energy efficiency but they are not as well funded as WUNZ, nor are they well integrated into this flagship scheme (which will also lose its funding in the near future).

Seeing there is limited funding in the Government agency for new large-scale programmes or national social marketing initiatives (other than the Energy Spot), the use of trusted intermediaries (especially the ones already gained as partners in the WUNZ programme) to further promote learning and support is essential.

4. Think of the benefits of the end user as well

WUNZ is doing this well in terms of the health benefits and the wider social benefits being highlighted by the scheme.

5. Focus your messaging, use trusted intermediaries

WUNZ already does this well in the regard of having a solid insulation training and audit regime, standards and a good market of installers. Where it can go further on this issue is beyond one-off investment behaviours (see 1. and 3.)

6. Be a one-stop-shop WUNZ is good at this seeing it takes a lot of the pain out of having to provide too much information, and often the money for insulation, up front (as opposed to some of the international insulation subsidies schemes described in the Monster). This can always be improved but the high uptake of the scheme shows that it is doing so successfully.

One area where improvement is needed is landlords and the split incentive/principal agent issue, which is an area of likely focus in the Task 24 extension (and could be tested in the Subtask 11 participation by EECA).

Recommendations What the programme did What the programme could do better7. Use a toolbox of interventions and go beyond kWh targets

WUNZ is an international best practice example on this.

8. Don’t box people in too much

What’s more important to people than energy? Many things, but especially their health and that of their families, and WUNZ is promoting this message very well also with a good collaboration with the health sector.

9. Benchmark your heart out, measure not model

This is one area where WUNZ could have done a little better to begin with, as most of the metrics were based on modeled estimates and savings.

However, the shift of the focus to health and strong research and evaluation on this aspect have modified this critique somewhat. However, in general, a minimum of 10% of the total cost of a programme should be spent on monitoring and evaluation. The installer audits are a good example of monitoring but a double-loop learning evaluation among the wider group of Behaviour Changers and the end users’ perceptions would be recommended (see ST3 report ‘Do you behave as we designed you to?’ and the Building Retrofits ST3 factsheet).

10. Learn from the unwilling

Especially the landlords in this specific programme, but also the ‘Energy Extravagant’ group described in the Energy Cultures research project (http://www.otago.ac.nz/csafe/research/otago055634.pdf). In New Zealand, even multi-million dollar homes can be inadequately insulated and often unhealthy for their occupants who do have access to information and the financial means to do better. This is a group that should be addressed more outside of the subsidy scheme (as government subsidies is not what they need, nor do they tend to take them up), seeing the most vulnerable (the ‘Energy Economical’) have been well supported by the WUNZ subsidy scheme (except for the landlord/tenant principal agent issue).

We have workshopped this specific issue in the Wellington 2013 Task 24 workshop (see Energy Culture presentation of the problem here and feedback from the workshopped solutions here). Four main themes came through in the discussion on how to make the ‘Energy Extravagant’ more efficient: 1. make return of investment very obvious as economic considerations are often very important to this group (that includes the RoI of the upfront investment but also over the lifetime especially in views of increasing value when selling their house) Home Star or other voluntary rating schemes are not enough to show the increase in value of these investments; 2. re-message by focusing on comfort, style, aesthetics or widgets (status); 3. future proofing, eg by looking at how this will benefit them in old age (eg self-sufficiency from PV); 4. trusted home energy advice for time- and knowledge poor people. This feedback has also been written up in more detail.






Target: Individual Investment BehavioursRecommendations What the programme did What the programme could do better

7. Use a toolbox of interventions and go beyond kWh targets

WUNZ is an international best practice example on this.

8. Don’t box people in too much

What’s more important to people than energy? Many things, but especially their health and that of their families, and WUNZ is promoting this message very well also with a good collaboration with the health sector.

9. Benchmark your heart out, measure not model

This is one area where WUNZ could have done a little better to begin with, as most of the metrics were based on modeled estimates and savings.

However, the shift of the focus to health and strong research and evaluation on this aspect have modified this critique somewhat. However, in general, a minimum of 10% of the total cost of a programme should be spent on monitoring and evaluation. The installer audits are a good example of monitoring but a double-loop learning evaluation among the wider group of Behaviour Changers and the end users’ perceptions would be recommended (see ST3 report ‘Do you behave as we designed you to?’ and the Building Retrofits ST3 factsheet).

10. Learn from the unwilling

Especially the landlords in this specific programme, but also the ‘Energy Extravagant’ group described in the Energy Cultures research project (http://www.otago.ac.nz/csafe/research/otago055634.pdf). In New Zealand, even multi-million dollar homes can be inadequately insulated and often unhealthy for their occupants who do have access to information and the financial means to do better. This is a group that should be addressed more outside of the subsidy scheme (as government subsidies is not what they need, nor do they tend to take them up), seeing the most vulnerable (the ‘Energy Economical’) have been well supported by the WUNZ subsidy scheme (except for the landlord/tenant principal agent issue).

We have workshopped this specific issue in the Wellington 2013 Task 24 workshop (see Energy Culture presentation of the problem here and feedback from the workshopped solutions here). Four main themes came through in the discussion on how to make the ‘Energy Extravagant’ more efficient: 1. make return of investment very obvious as economic considerations are often very important to this group (that includes the RoI of the upfront investment but also over the lifetime especially in views of increasing value when selling their house) Home Star or other voluntary rating schemes are not enough to show the increase in value of these investments; 2. re-message by focusing on comfort, style, aesthetics or widgets (status); 3. future proofing, eg by looking at how this will benefit them in old age (eg self-sufficiency from PV); 4. trusted home energy advice for time- and knowledge poor people. This feedback has also been written up in more detail.

http://www.energycultures.org

http://www.energycultures.org

http://www.otago.ac.nz/csafe/research/otago055634.pdf




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wueGy-67Wck&index=18&list=PLoZ9-YO7tGnoDbnOLmu-cLGC9geztJ0F9

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wueGy-67Wck&index=18&list=PLoZ9-YO7tGnoDbnOLmu-cLGC9geztJ0F9

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaiBYxdzkUg&list=UU_p3PlWDpLyDBh8TwUBmVHQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zaiBYxdzkUg&list=UU_p3PlWDpLyDBh8TwUBmVHQ

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zxwgrafn6zbf3zp/Workshop%20results%20building:research.doc?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/zxwgrafn6zbf3zp/Workshop%20results%20building:research.doc?dl=0

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Text

Premise for Task XXIVSubtask IV - Stakeholder

analyses

Some top level behaviour change issues described by NZ stakeholders were (in bold the most commonly mentioned):

-Transport: reduce energy use generally, modal shifts to public transport and active transport, driver behaviour, vehicle purchasing behaviour-Housing: residential heating efficiency, insulation, efficiency of energy use generally, Energy poverty-Rental housing: split incentives of landlord/tenant, improve quality-SMEs: lighting and heating, building service managers, change industry mindset of striving towards minimum standards-Supply/smart grid: integrated and resilient grid, uptake of DG, demand response, ToU pricing-Consumption generally: need to reduce consumption & its impacts, reduce (hot) water use, decarbonise economy

- Energy use generally: reduce energy use (conservation), change behaviour and understanding-Information, awareness, engagement: Improve levels of knowledge and awareness, engage citizens, improve visualisation of energy use/waste-Government: need for leadership in DSM, regulatory incentives for EE, measurement and accountability

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Text

Premise for Task XXIVSubtask IV - Stakeholder

feedback

What this Task can help with:

- Reframing the issues, including looking at the more ‘human’ aspect of the energy system- Improved knowledge and understanding amongst stakeholders, especially what different models are out there- Improved engagement, development of new aspirations and collaborations, shared learning- Improved political buy-in and policy development- Addressing funding and/or policy disconnects- Improving business/industry approaches- Good examples of how to use storytelling- Help with specific initiatives, development of field research and pilots

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Text

Premise for Task XXIVSubtask IV - Pilots and research

questions (leading to ST VI)

Building Retrofits:How to deal with the Split Incentives/Principal Agent issue in rental properties?

SMEs:How to deal with the Split Incentives/Principal Agent issue in a chosen SME segment?

Smart Metering/Feedback:How to link smart meters to better feedback, using ICT?

Transport:How to get people out of their cars and into healthier and/or more environmentally friendly modes of transport?

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Premise for Task XXIVSubtask IV - Main lessons

A country-specific list of recommendations is/not:

A main drawcard of Task 24 A collection of country-specific contexts, based on stories Different for the different countries But has some similarities and overall, global conclusions Based on country experts’ knowledge & stakeholder analyses A detailed summary of each country’s involvement in Task 24

Conclusive Entirely objective, may miss some sector and disciplinary views Available to countries that are not financially participating

==> recommendations will form basis for Task 24 extension ST6 and 7






metrics

2- In depth




3- Evaluation tool

for stakeholders

4- Country-specific



Subtasks of Task XXIVSubtask V - expert

platform

• 226 members• 137 videos & presentations• 115 photos• 6 blogs• 21 events• 21 discussion fora• 3 member groups

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Text

Premise for Task XXIVSubtask 5 - Expert Platform

>

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Text

Premise for Task XXIVSubtask 5 - Main lessons

A social media platform is/not:

A good place to ‘collect’ experts and info A good broadcasting tool A good way of measuring Task impact (GA)

A silver bullet for making people talk A way of making busy experts use social media A way of easily managing files

==> created a Wiki to make case studies more easily accessible, will continue as ST5 during Task extension

Subtasks of Task XXIVSTORYTELLING

Target Audience of Task XXIVA shared language for collaboration?

Stories are powerful because they transport us into other people’s worlds but, in doing that, they change the way our brains work and potentially change our brain chemistry — and that’s what it means to be a social creature. Paul Zak, Neuroeconomist

“

“

"The Interpreter" - is a left hemisphere function that organises our memories into plausible stories. Michael Gazzaniga, Cognitive Neuroscientist

Evolution has wired our brains for storytelling. A story, if broken down into the simplest form is a connection of cause and effect. We make up (short) stories in our heads for every action and conversation. Whenever we hear a story, we want to relate it to one of our existing experiences. Uri Hasson, psychologist

The ‘narrative turn’: Storytelling sociology views lived experience as constructed, at least in part, by the stories people tell about it. Berger & Quinney, sociologists

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Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVStorytelling

Narratives = social science tool aimed at providing way to explore how big events (policies) impact on small scale (individuals)

Allow for quick, practical and useful understanding of complexity of interconnected factors in behaviour research

We all turn everything into a narrative in order to remember it

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Different stories*

*See Janda & Topouzi (2013). Closing the Loop: Using Hero Stories and Learning Stories to Remake Energy Policy ECEEE Summer Study Proceedings.

http://proceedings.eceee.org/visabstrakt.php?event=3&doc=1-406-13

http://proceedings.eceee.org/visabstrakt.php?event=3&doc=1-406-13

Subtasks of Task XXIVenergy stories: personal

YOUTUBE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbe83S8FfO0&list=UU_p3PlWDpLyDBh8TwUBmVH

Q

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wbe83S8FfO0&list=UU_p3PlWDpLyDBh8TwUBmVHQ






Subtasks of Task XXIVCountry storiesIEA DSM – Task XXIV

Belgian Story

Brussels, September 7, 2012

Swiss Energy Strategy and research projects

concerning behavior change

Dr. Aurelio Fetz, Market Regulation, Swiss Federal Office of Energy

Workshop IEA DSM Task 24, 15.10.2013

The New Zealand energy story

Sea Rotmann and Janet Stephenson

demand-side^

Norwegian Energy Story

Subtasks of Task XXIV Storytelling in DSM

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Subtask I - Helicopter OverviewPremise for Task XXIVStorytellingSuccesses

The$world$has$entered$a$new$era,$the$Anthropocene�� $on$the$global$environment

Facing$the$future:$$towards$a$green$economy$in$New$Zealand

Growth in global population

Climate change

Pressures

Challenges Challenges

Ocean acidification

Air pollution

Increasing consumption of resources

Lowering emissions will require changes in patterns of production and consumption, but need not result in

SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

“Collaborative multi-stake-holder action is required as businesses, governments, or civil society alone do not have both the tools and the authority to tackle systemic risks”

“Global Risks 2014”,World Economic Forum

ENVIRONMENTAL CHALLENGES

A"green"economy"can"generate"

Reduced qualityof freshwater

Biodiversity loss

!

Page!10! !Facing'the'future:'towards'a'green'economy'for'New'Zealand'|!March!2014!

How the island became green – a ‘Just So’ scenario One$upon$a$time...!there!was!a!small!country,!an!island!nation,!that!survived!mostly!by!selling!food!and!fibre!products!on!

international!commodity!markets.!!!

!

Every$day...!production!would!increase:!more!meat,!more!wool,!more!logs,!more!fish,!more!fruit,!and!more!milk.!!Growing!GDP!was!

the!most!important!goal!for!that!country,!even!more!important!than!the!wellbeing!of!its!people!and!the!environment.!!!

!

But$one$day...!!people!started!to!realise!that!their!rivers!were!becoming!increasingly!polluted,!it!was!harder!to!catch!fish!and!more!

native!birds!and!animal!species!were!threatened!with!extinction.!

!

Then...!the!restDofDtheDworld!started!to!realise!that!the!people!of!the!island!nation!weren’t!that!clever!and!happy!after!all,!because!they!kept!polluting!their!own!nest.!!!

!

At$the$same$time!...!serious!storms!and!droughts!started!to!impact!on!the!world!as!a!result!of!climate!change.!!The!restDofDtheD

world!also!noticed!that!the!people!of!this!island!nation!were!very!high!per!capita!producers!of!greenhouse!gases,!higher!than!

almost!all!others!in!the!world,!and!that!it!kept!increasing.!!So!the!restDofDtheDworld!started!to!doubt!that!the!island!nation!was!truly!

‘clean!and!green’!and!they!became!less!keen!on!visiting!the!country!and!buying!its!products.!

!

Because$of$that...!the!people!of!the!island!nation!were!finally!galvanised!into!action.!They!realised!they!had!many!advantages,!like!

lots!of!renewable!energy,!many!businesses!that!were!already!passionate!about!sustainability,!farmers!who!knew!how!to!maintain!a!

healthy!environment,!and!many!innovators!and!entrepreneurs.!!

!

And$then...!they!started!to!work!together:!businesses,!councils,!communities,!politicians!and!researchers,!realising!that!a!move!to!a!

lower!carbon!footprint!would!be!beneficial!for!the!economy,!society!and!the!environment.!!They!all!agreed!that!a!resilient,!healthy!

environment!and!society!needed!to!be!the!basis!of!the!economy,!and!that!GDP!alone!was!not!effective!as!a!measure!of!success.!!!

!

Also$…!they!realised!that!it!was!actually!not!as!hard!as!they!thought!to!combine!their!nation’s!natural!advantages!and!resources!

with!cuttingDedge!innovation!and!come!up!with!products!and!services!that!the!restDofDtheDworld!really!valued.!

!

So$finally...!in!much!less!time!than!they!thought,!they!had!100%!renewable!electricity,!lowDcarbon!heating!and!transport!systems,!

clean!and!healthy!waterways!and!coasts,!reduced!biodiversity!loss,!and!happier!and!healthier!communities.!!

!

Ever$since$then...!the!island!nation!has!once!again!been!looked!up!to!by!the!restDofDtheDworld!for!its!leadership!in!achieving!a!vibrant!economy!alongside!a!healthy!environment.!Smart!people!continue!to!return!home!to!that!country!from!around!the!world,!

attracted!by!the!many!jobs!for!skilled!and!knowledgeable!people!and!its!beautiful!healthy!environment.!!

!

The!end. !

Further information This!paper!was!authored!by!a!Royal!Society!of!New!

Zealand!panel!chaired!by!Professor!Gerry!Carrington!

FRSNZ.!The!Panel!members!were:!Professor!Geoff!Austin!

FRSNZ,!Dr!Sea!Rotmann,!Professor!Ralph!Sims!CRSNZ,!Dr!

Janet!Stephenson,!Professor!John!Boys!FRSNZ,!Professor!

Les!Oxley!FRSNZ,!and!Professor!Dame!Anne!Salmond!CBE!

FRSNZ.!

'The!Royal!Society!of!New!Zealand!would!like!to!thank!the!

following!experts!for!their!valuable!input!in!commenting!

on!and!reviewing!the!paper:!Mr!Paul!Atkins,!Professor!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Colin!CampbellDHunt,!Ms!Kristiann!Allen,!Professor!Barry!

Barton,!Professor!Tim!Hazledine,!Mr!Neville!Jordan,!Mr!Chris!

Mulcare,!Ms!Penny!Nelson,!and!Professor!John!Raine.!

!

For!further!information,!please!contact!

[email protected],!or!go!to!the!Royal!Society!of!!

New!Zealand!web!pages:!

www.royalsociety.org.nz/greeneconomy!!

!

!

!

Except!for!figures!&!the!RSNZ!logo,!Emerging!Issues!

papers!are!licensed!under!a!Creative!Commons!3.0!New!

Zealand!Licence.!

!

References: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1!!!Rockström!J.,!Steffen!W.,!Noone!K.,!Persson!Å.,!Chapin!F.S.,!Lambin!

E.F.,!Lenton!T.M.,!Scheffer!M.,!Folke!C.,!Schellnhuber!H.J.,!Nykvist!

B.,!de!Wit!C.A.,!Hughes!T.,!van!der!Leeuw!S.,!Rodhe!H.,!Sörlin!S.,!

Snyder!P.K.,!Costanza!R.,!Svedin!U.,!Falkenmark!M.,!Karlberg!L.,!

Corell!R.W.,!Fabry!V.J.,!Hansen!J.,!Walker!B.,!Liverman!D.,!!

Richardson!K.,!Crutzen!P.,!Foley!J.A.,!“A!safe!operating!space!for!

humanity”.!Nature,!461,!472D475!(24!Sept!2009).!2!Royal!Society!of!London!“People!and!the!planet”!(2012)!3!World!Economic!Forum!“Global!Risks!2014”,!Ninth!Edition!(2014)!4!Intergovernmental!Panel!on!Climate!Change!(IPCC)!Fifth!Assessment!!

Working!Group!I!(WGI)!Report!“The!Physical!Science!Basis”!(2013)!5!The!Global!Network!of!Science!Academies.!IAP!Statement!on!

Population!and!Consumption!(2012)!

http://www.interacademies.net/10878/19191.aspx!

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Text

Premise for Task XXIVStorytelling methodology

Using storytelling as methodology is/not:

A valid social science tool A great way to break down silos and jargon Something we all innately do, and do well Fun, engaging, social & importantly: memorable Universally understood

A way to reduce bias by removing complexity?

A way of getting around ‘proper’ analysis

==> will continue to use narratives but also investigate ways of measuring impact of storytelling

So...what’s the story?

- There is no silver bullet anywhere but the potential remains huge- Homo economicus generally doesn’t exist (in energy)- Habits are the most difficult thing to break- This means we have to get even smarter & embrace complexity- We are at a crossroads, and shouldn’t turn back- We need to look at whole-system, societal change- This can’t be done in isolation by one sector - collaboration is key- Social media and networks are really good (theoretically) for it- But: professionals are weary to use them, face-to-face still key- It’s also hard to find the right people and break down the silos- Everyone has a piece of the puzzle but we haven’t fit it together- We need a shared learning and collaboration platform that works- We also need a shared language based on narratives

- It’s all about the people!

Subtasks of Task XXIVwant to hear more of

our story?

to join the expert platform: [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]