A Cliometrics’ view on the Garzoni database

A Cliometrics’ view on the Garzoni database

Annual Meeting of the Renaissance Society of America, Boston, April 2016

Giovanni ColavizzaEPFL

Slides: http://www.slideshare.net/GiovanniColavizza/a-‐cliometrics-‐view-‐on-‐the-‐garzoni-‐database

Cliometrics, or New Economic History, engages the study of the past with the help of deductive models, “with the aim of establishing the interaction between variables in a given situation in mathematical form.” (Diebolt and Haupert 2015)

It has a “focus on institutions as carriers of economic structures across generations and sometimes centuries. The other is the focus on causality through imaginative use of identification strategies.” (Temin 2015)


Cliometrics

Sources:Diebolt, C. and Haupert, M. (2015) Handbook of Cliometrics. Springer.

Indroduction to..Temin, P. Economic History and Economic Development: New Economic History in

Retrospect and Prospect

Questions:

1-‐ Are contracts of apprenticeship following known trends in Venetian economy?2-‐ What were apprentices doing in the workshop? Was there knowledge transfer, only unskilled labor or a mix of both?

Goal of this paper: exemplify quantitative reasoning to investigate the Garzoni data


DataN

umbe

r of c

ontra

cts

1580

1600

1620

1640

1660

010

020

030

040

0

Years

All

With salary 3687 contracts from 3 periods

Selection of professions by economic sector (e.g. book sector is in, textiles are out, for now)


Data

Sources:

A total of 11563 contracts have been recorded into the database, all sampled form ASVe, Giustizia Vecchia, Accordi dei Garzoni, registers 151 to 177. Of these contracts, a final subset of 3687 double-‐checked contracts is retained for the present study: the full contents of registers 152, 153, 157, 158, 163, 164, 169, 170. Professions were filtered according to a given list of economic sectors. Importantly, the textile sector is not currently considered.

Credit to Davide Drago, Andrea Erboso, Marianna Volpin and Francesca Zugno for data collection.


A proxy for Venetian Economy

1-‐ Venetian economy becoming increasingly more introvert during the XVII century (Lanaro 2008)

2-‐ Crisis of whole sectors, e.g. the Venetian printing press (Infelise 1997)

XVII century long-‐lasting debate: Crisis (Cipolla, Pullan, Romano) or Change/Reorganization? (Rapp, Sella)



References:

Cipolla, C. M. “The decline of Italy: the case of a fully matured economy”. Economic History Review V(II). 1952.Infelise, M. “La crise de la librairie vénitienne, 1620-‐1650”. Frédéric Barbier et al. (eds.) Le livre et l’historien. 1997.Lanaro, P. “Corporations et confréries: les étrangers et la marché du travail à Venise (XV-‐XVIII)”. Histoire Urbaine 21(1). 2008.Pullan, B. (ed.) Crisis and Change in Venetian Economy. 1968.Rapp, R. T. Industry and Economic Change in Seventeenth Century Venice. 1976.Romano, R. “L’Italia nella crisi del XVII secolo”. Studi Storici IX. 1968.Sella, D. Italy in the Seventeenth Century. 1997.


Variety of ProfessionsM

arze

rM

aran

gon

Ore

seTa

giap

iera

Spe

chie

rM

urer

Sta

mpa

dor,

Com

posi

tor

Sta

mpa

dor,

Torc

oler

Tira

oro

Indo

rado

r

Period 1

Freq

uenc

y0

400

800

0%50

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Spe

chie

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Mar

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Mar

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Cuo

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Stri

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Period 2

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Spe

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Mar

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Period 3

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umul

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e Pe

rcen

tage


Variety of Professions

Period 1

Freq

uenc

y

050

010

0015

00

0%25

%50

%75

%10

0%

Period 2

020

040

060

080

010

00

0%25

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0%

Period 3

020

040

060

080

010

00

0%25

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0%C

umul

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rcen

tage


The Printing PressN

umbe

r of c

ontra

cts

1580 1600 1620 1640 1660

010

020

030

040

0

Years

All

Print sector


The Printing PressN

umbe

r of c

ontra

cts

1580 1600 1620 1640 1660

010

020

030

040

0

Years

All

Printers

Booksellers and Paper makers


Descriptive Statistics



-‐ Reduction in variety of professions-‐ Increasingly more venetians as apprentices-‐ Crisis of whole sectors such as the printing press confirmed only in part


Questions:

1-‐ Are contracts of apprenticeship following known trends in Venetian economy?2-‐ What were apprentices doing in the workshop? Was there knowledge transfer, only unskilled labor or a mix of both?


On the “uses” of apprentices

1-‐ Guilds and apprenticeships as essential to knowledge transfer and security for youths (Epstein 1998)

2-‐ Guilds as essentially parasitic institutions, exploiting a monopolistic position to extract premiums and preferential advantages to relatives. Knowledge transfer secondary, apprenticeship potentially exploitative (Ogilvie 2014)


On the “uses” of apprentices

References:

Epstein, S. R. “Craft Guilds, Apprenticeship and Technological Change in Preindustrial Europe”. The Journal of Economic History 58(3). 1998.Ogilvie, S. “The Economics of Guilds”. The Journal of Economic Perspectives 28(4). 2014.


Descriptive Statistics -‐ 2

24% of Venetians, on average, did not get a salary (only 11% among non-‐Venetians)


Duality of apprenticeships in Venice

A possible duality emerges:1-‐ circa 80% of apprentices were getting a salary, most of these paid at the end of the contract2-‐ circa 20% of apprentices got no salary, or paid their master in turnVenetians preferred not to be paid..

Let’s assume there is a good reason, and the duality might be due to:1-‐ apprentices acting mostly as unskilled labor force2-‐ apprentices getting training



Let’s assume there is a good reason: 1-‐ apprentices acting mostly as unskilled labor force2-‐ apprentices mostly getting training

How to check this hypothesis?Take the 80%, group 1, and look for market mechanics in salaries, not linked to previous experience in the profession


Regressions

From: http://www.biostathandbook.com/


Regressions

Venetian (yes = 1) -0.018 -0.262 -0.177 0.361

(0.202) (0.302) (0.359) (0.380)

Year 0.013*** 0.008 -0.071 -0.114

(0.003) (0.019) (0.067) (0.096)

Length of contract -1.349*** -1.072*** -1.078*** -2.002***

(0.072) (0.102) (0.127) (0.155)

Age of apprentice 0.307*** 0.439*** 0.255*** 0.254***

(0.037) (0.058) (0.057) (0.076)

Father (not alive = 1) -0.046 -0.209 0.247 -0.152

(0.187) (0.279) (0.305) (0.372)

Annual Salary as dependent variable. Periods: All, 1, 2, 3.


Professional profilesD

ensi

ty

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0.0

0.2

0.4

Stampador, Compositor

0 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

Age

Den

sity

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0.0

0.2

0.4

Stampador, Torcoler

Annual salary

0 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

Length of contracts (in years)

0 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4


Professional profilesD

ensi

ty

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0.0

0.2

0.4

Marangon

0 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

0 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

Age

Den

sity

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

0.0

0.2

0.4

Tagiapiera

Annual salary

0 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4

Length of contracts (in years)

0 5 10 15 20

0.0

0.2

0.4



Preliminary conclusions:

1-‐ Salaries determined by factors exogenous to previous experience in the profession (age, duration of contract)

2-‐ Different professions had different apprentice profiles, but similar motivations might be involved (e.g. physical fitness)


Conclusions

Apprenticeships good proxy of Venetian economy

Interesting underlying mechanics: duality of salaries, determinants of salaries and professional profiles

More to come as the project develops..


Giovanni ColavizzaEPFL

Thank you

Annual Meeting of the Renaissance Society of America, Boston, April 2016

Science

A Cliometrics’ view on the Garzoni database